arXiv subjects

Bas J. M. Werker

Publications and source records attributed to Bas J. M. Werker.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Maximal Ancillarity, Semiparametric Efficiency, and the Elimination of Nuisances

Restricting statistical experiments via nuisance-ancillary $σ$-fields yields nuisance-free experiments. However, a moot point with ancillarity is that maximal ancillary $σ$-fields are typically not unique. There are exceptions, though, among which the limiting experiments in a locally asymptotically normal (LAN) context. Building on this, we address the maximal ancillarity uniqueness problem by adopting a Hájek-Le Cam asymptotic perspective and define the concept of sequences of locally asymptotically maximal nuisance-ancillary $σ$-fields. We then show that any semiparametrically efficient procedure admits versions that are measurable with respect to such $σ$-fields while enjoying strict finite-sample nuisance-ancillarity, hence eliminating the nuisance without the hassle of estimating it. This is in sharp contrast with classical tangent space projections, which also achieve semiparametric efficiency but only enjoy asymptotic nuisance-ancillarity -- at the price, moreover, of adequately estimating the nuisance. When the nuisance is the density of some noise or innovation driving the data-generating process of a LAN experiment, we show that a sequence of locally asymptotically maximal nuisance-ancillary $σ$-fields is generated by the so-called center-outward residual ranks and signs based on measure transportation results. Restricting local experiments to such $σ$-fields yields sequences of finite-sample nuisance-free (here, distribution-free) restrictions of the original local LAN experiments that nevertheless achieve the semiparametric efficiency bounds of the original ones.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Testing for Conditional Independence in Binary Single-Index Models

We wish to test whether a real-valued variable $Z$ has explanatory power, in addition to a multivariate variable $X$, for a binary variable $Y$. Thus, we are interested in testing the hypothesis $\mathbb{P}(Y=1\, | \, X,Z)=\mathbb{P}(Y=1\, | \, X)$, based on $n$ i.i.d.\ copies of $(X,Y,Z)$. In order to avoid the curse of dimensionality, we follow the common approach of assuming that the dependence of both $Y$ and $Z$ on $X$ is through a single-index $X^\topβ$ only. Splitting the sample on both $Y$-values, we construct a two-sample empirical process of transformed $Z$-variables, after splitting the $X$-space into parallel strips. Studying this two-sample empirical process is challenging: it does not converge weakly to a standard Brownian bridge, but after an appropriate normalization it does. We use this result to construct distribution-free tests.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Local Asymptotic Normality for Multi-Armed Bandits

Van den Akker, Werker, and Zhou (2025) showed that the limit experiment, in the sense of H\a'{a}jek-Le Cam, for (contextual) bandits whose arms' expected payoffs differ by $O(T^{-1/2})$, is Locally Asymptotically Quadratic (LAQ) but highly non-standard, being characterized by a system of coupled stochastic differential equations. The present paper considers the complementary case where the arms' expected payoffs are fixed with a unique optimal (in the sense of highest expected payoff) arm. It is shown that, under sampling schemes satisfying mild regularity conditions (including UCB and Thompson sampling), the model satisfies the standard Locally Asymptotically Normal (LAN) property.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Consistency of Selection Strategies for Fraud Detection

This paper studies how insurers can chose which claims to investigate for fraud. Given a prediction model, typically only claims with the highest predicted propability of being fraudulent are investigated. We argue that this can lead to inconsistent learning and propose a randomized alternative. More generally, we draw a parallel with the multi-arm bandit literature and argue that, in the presence of selection, the obtained observations are not iid. Hence, dependence on past observations should be accounted for when updating parameter estimates. We formalize selection in a binary regression framework and show that model updating and maximum-likelihood estimation can be implemented as if claims were investigated at random. Then, we define consistency of selection strategies and conjecture sufficient conditions for consistency. Our simulations suggest that the often-used selection strategy can be inconsistent while the proposed randomized alternative is consistent. Finally, we compare our randomized selection strategy with Thompson sampling, a standard multi-arm bandit heuristic. Our simulations suggest that the latter can be inefficient in learning low fraud probabilities.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Valid Post-Contextual Bandit Inference

We establish an asymptotic framework for the statistical analysis of the stochastic contextual multi-armed bandit problem (CMAB), which is widely employed in adaptively randomized experiments across various fields. While algorithms for maximizing rewards or, equivalently, minimizing regret have received considerable attention, our focus centers on statistical inference with adaptively collected data under the CMAB model. To this end we derive the limit experiment (in the Hajek-Le Cam sense). This limit experiment is highly nonstandard and, applying Girsanov's theorem, we obtain a structural representation in terms of stochastic differential equations. This structural representation, and a general weak convergence result we develop, allow us to obtain the asymptotic distribution of statistics for the CMAB problem. In particular, we obtain the asymptotic distributions for the classical t-test (non-Gaussian), Adaptively Weighted tests, and Inverse Propensity Weighted tests (non-Gaussian). We show that, when comparing both arms, validity of these tests requires the sampling scheme to be translation invariant in a way we make precise. We propose translation-invariant versions of Thompson, tempered greedy, and tempered Upper Confidence Bound sampling. Simulation results corroborate our asymptotic analysis.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

When does Subagging Work?

We study the effectiveness of subagging, or subsample aggregating, on regression trees, a popular non-parametric method in machine learning. First, we give sufficient conditions for pointwise consistency of trees. We formalize that (i) the bias depends on the diameter of cells, hence trees with few splits tend to be biased, and (ii) the variance depends on the number of observations in cells, hence trees with many splits tend to have large variance. While these statements for bias and variance are known to hold globally in the covariate space, we show that, under some constraints, they are also true locally. Second, we compare the performance of subagging to that of trees across different numbers of splits. We find that (1) for any given number of splits, subagging improves upon a single tree, and (2) this improvement is larger for many splits than it is for few splits. However, (3) a single tree grown at optimal size can outperform subagging if the size of its individual trees is not optimally chosen. This last result goes against common practice of growing large randomized trees to eliminate bias and then averaging to reduce variance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Semiparametrically Point-Optimal Hybrid Rank Tests for Unit Roots

We propose a new class of unit root tests that exploits invariance properties in the Locally Asymptotically Brownian Functional limit experiment associated to the unit root model. The invariance structures naturally suggest tests that are based on the ranks of the increments of the observations, their average, and an assumed reference density for the innovations. The tests are semiparametric in the sense that they are valid, i.e., have the correct (asymptotic) size, irrespective of the true innovation density. For a correctly specified reference density, our test is point-optimal and nearly efficient. For arbitrary reference densities, we establish a Chernoff-Savage type result, i.e., our test performs as well as commonly used tests under Gaussian innovations but has improved power under other, e.g., fat-tailed or skewed, innovation distributions. To avoid nonparametric estimation, we propose a simplified version of our test that exhibits the same asymptotic properties, except for the Chernoff-Savage result that we are only able to demonstrate by means of simulations.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2014

Semiparametric Gaussian copula models: Geometry and efficient rank-based estimation

We propose, for multivariate Gaussian copula models with unknown margins and structured correlation matrices, a rank-based, semiparametrically efficient estimator for the Euclidean copula parameter. This estimator is defined as a one-step update of a rank-based pilot estimator in the direction of the efficient influence function, which is calculated explicitly. Moreover, finite-dimensional algebraic conditions are given that completely characterize efficiency of the pseudo-likelihood estimator and adaptivity of the model with respect to the unknown marginal distributions. For correlation matrices structured according to a factor model, the pseudo-likelihood estimator turns out to be semiparametrically efficient. On the other hand, for Toeplitz correlation matrices, the asymptotic relative efficiency of the pseudo-likelihood estimator can be as low as 20%. These findings are confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. We indicate how our results can be extended to joint regression models.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2009

The asymptotic structure of nearly unstable non-negative integer-valued AR(1) models

This paper considers non-negative integer-valued autoregressive processes where the autoregression parameter is close to unity. We consider the asymptotics of this `near unit root' situation. The local asymptotic structure of the likelihood ratios of the model is obtained, showing that the limit experiment is Poissonian. To illustrate the statistical consequences we discuss efficient estimation of the autoregression parameter and efficient testing for a unit root.

math.ST↗