arXiv subjects

Beatriz Villarroel

Publications and source records attributed to Beatriz Villarroel.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Earth-Projected Clustering of Historical Optical Transients in the Palomar Observatory Sky Survey-I (POSS-I)

Palomar Observatory Sky Survey-I (POSS-I) images obtained before the launch of Sputnik contain star-like point sources consistent with sub-second flashes that are absent from all subsequent observations. The nature and origin of these transients remain poorly understood. Based on models suggesting they are in geosynchronous orbit, we estimated the latitude/longitude over which POSS-I transients appeared. From a dataset of 107,875 POSS-I transients, we selected a subset with high probability of representing real objects based on a machine learning model. Two independent approaches were used to test whether transients non-randomly grouped over specific locations (hotspots). Based on comparing transient numbers in discrete 5° x 5° Earth-projected regions to numbers randomly expected in these same regions, 16 statistically-significant hotspots were identified. Separately, two-step cluster analysis identified 6 highly-distinct hotspots (silhouette value = 0.70). The two methods identified several similar hotspots not attributable to POSS-I survey biases: 1) Pacific ocean west of southern Mexico/Central America, 2) southern Gulf of Mexico, 3) southwestern US (Sedona, AZ, White Sands, NM regions). Transients accounting for reported transient-nuclear testing associations displayed location specificity, with exclusively Pacific transient locations during Pacific nuclear testing and primarily southwestern US locations during Nevada testing. Findings hint at intriguing POSS-I transient characteristics.

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arXiv2026

Modelling Palomar Transients: Constraints from Reflection Geometry and Orbital Altitude

Recent searches of digitised photographic plates from the Palomar Observatory have uncovered tens of thousands of short-lived transients, each visible in only a single exposure. Their morphologies indicate sub-second flashes, consistent with specular reflections from highly reflective objects in near-Earth orbits. In this paper, we present a modelling study using geometric shadow modelling, Monte Carlo simulations, and photometric constraints to infer their physical properties. We examine the observed groupings and alignments, which appear to be consistent with sudden changes in attitude. Assuming a spherical-shell model, the angular profile of the measured transient deficit around the antisolar point is consistent with a population at characteristic altitudes of $\sim 20,000$--25,000 km. A complementary estimate, based on the altitude dependence of the global Earth-shadow deficit, yields a broader characteristic range of $\sim$ 20,000--35,000 km above Earth's surface, extending into the geosynchronous orbital (GSO) region. Under simplified geometric and photometric assumptions and assuming $\sim20{,}000$ to $35{,}786$ km above the Earth's surface, the inferred sizes of the specularly reflecting facets range from centimetre scales up to $\sim3$ m, with characteristic flash durations of $\sim320$ ms and slow rotation rates. We explore both natural and non-natural toy models consistent with the data, and provide constraints to guide future observational searches.

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arXiv2026

Microscopy assessment of two multiple-transient candidates

We present a microscopy-based assessment of two representative cases of multiple-transient candidates identified on historical photographic plates: the nine-transient event of 12 April 1950 (XE325) and the triple-transient event of 19 July 1952 (XE186). These events consist of spatially clustered, point-like sources detected within single long-exposure plates, lacking the streaks expected from moving objects and therefore suggestive of short-duration flashes. We analyse microscopy images of the original glass-plate material together with an independent copy plate and archival metadata, and we register these images against the published survey digitizations so that individual catalogued sources can be located. In both cases the candidates appear slightly sharper and more compact than typical stellar point spread functions, qualitatively consistent with sub-second to few-second emission during exposures of $\sim 50$~min, and they are reproducible across different representations of the same field, which disfavours a digitization-artifact origin. However, microscopy of individual point-like features cannot by itself separate a short-duration flash from an intrinsic emulsion defect, because the two scenarios produce qualitatively similar signatures at the single-source level. We also show that the multi-observatory parallax test, while powerful in principle, is not feasible for these two specific events with presently available material, owing to the absence of a simultaneous second-site plate reaching comparable depth. We conclude that resolving the nature of these events requires population-level statistics and, where future observations allow, purpose-built multi-station imaging. This work provides a proof-of-concept framework for combining microscopy with archival analysis in the study of historical transient phenomena.

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arXiv2026

A Response to paper Critical Evaluation of Studies Alleging Evidence for Technosignatures in the POSS1-E Photographic Plates by Watters et al. (2026)

We respond to the critique by Watters et al. (2026) of the statistical analyses in Villarroel et al. (2025) and Bruehl & Villarroel (2025). We argue that the critique conflates object-level validation with ensemble-level statistical inference and relies on a reduced, heterogeneously filtered subset originally constructed for a different scientific purpose. We further question whether the aggressively filtered subset used in Watters et al. (2026) demonstrates a meaningful improvement in sample purity, given the twenty-fold reduction in sample size. Our simple, visual check does not suggest that it does. The subset further lacks complete temporal information and is seriously statistically underpowered for testing the reported Earth-shadow deficit. We emphasise that the horizontal separation metric used for plate assignment and time reconstruction as in Watters et al. (2026) depends on the inclusion of the cos(Dec) factor to ensure geometric consistency. Any omission would alter plate assignment and inferred observation times. Moreover, the analyses presented in Watters et al. (2026) do not include uncertainty estimates or error propagation, limiting the interpretability of the claimed null results. We conclude that the principal findings reported in Villarroel et al. (2025) and Bruehl & Villarroel (2025) are not invalidated by the analyses presented in Watters et al. (2026).

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arXiv2026

Machine Learning Supports Existence of Previously Unrecognized Transient Astronomical Phenomena in Historical Observatory Images

Transient, star-like point sources that appear and vanish over short timescales are described in astronomical images prior to launch of Sputnik. We have reported that transient numbers diminish significantly in Earth's shadow (shadow deficit) and are more likely within (plus/minus) one day of nuclear testing (nuclear window). These findings remain debated with some arguing that transients identified via existing automated pipelines are simply plate defects. Therefore, we use machine learning (ML) to enhance transient identification accuracy and validate the phenomenon. The model was trained against 250 transient image pairs taken 30 minutes apart that were classified as real versus plate defect by expert visual review; the model demonstrated good discrimination (out-of-fold AUC$=$0.81; sensitivity$=$0.71, specificity$=$0.71). After deployment in a dataset of 107,875 previously-identified transients, the model assigned each a probability of being real. After controlling for ML-identified artifacts, transient counts were significantly elevated for dates within a nuclear window (p$=$.024); transients with the highest probability of being real were more likely to occur within a nuclear window (p$<$.0001). The shadow deficit was significant (p$<$.0001) and largest in the highest probability transients relative to lower probability transients (p$=$.003). Results strongly support existence of an unrecognized population of transient objects in historical astronomical plates warranting further study.

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arXiv2025

A Cost-Effective Search for Extraterrestrial Probes in the Solar System

For centuries, astronomers have discussed the possibility of inhabited worlds - from Herschel's 18th-century observations suggesting Mars may host life, to the systematic search for technosignatures that began in the 1960s using radio telescopes. Searching for artifacts in the solar system has received relatively little formal scientific interest and has faced significant technical and social challenges. Automated surveys and new observational techniques developed over the past decade now enable astronomers to survey parts of the sky for anomalous objects. We briefly describe four methods for detecting extraterrestrial artifacts and probes within the Solar System and then focus on demonstrating one of these. The first makes use of pre-Sputnik images to search for flashes from glinting objects. The second method makes use of space-borne telescopes to search for artificial objects. A third approach involves examining the reflectance spectra of objects in Earth orbit, in search of the characteristic reddening that may imply long-term exposure of metallic surfaces to space weathering. We focus here on a fourth approach, which involves using Earth's shadow as a filter when searching for optically luminous objects in near-Earth space. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept of this method by conducting two searches for transients in images acquired by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), which has generated many repeated 30-second exposures of the same fields. In this way, we identified previously uncatalogued events at short angular separations from the center of the shadow, motivating more extensive searches using this technique. We conclude that the Earth's shadow presents a new and exciting search domain for near-Earth SETI.

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arXiv2025

On the Image Profiles of Transients in the Palomar Sky Survey

The VASCO project has discovered groups of short-lived transients on historical photographic plates that lack conventional explanation. Hambly & Blair (2024) examined nine such transients reported by Villarroel (2021) and found that they exhibit narrower, rounder profiles, attributing this to emulsion flaws. However, well-established optical principles and atmospheric physics imply that unresolved flashes lasting less than a second naturally appear sharper and more circular than stellar images, particularly on long-exposure plates where stars are significantly blurred by seeing and tracking errors. Such profiles are an expected consequence of sub-second optical flashes, making their findings consistent with the transient interpretation.

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arXiv2025

The New Science of Unidentified Aerospace-Undersea Phenomena (UAP)

After decades of dismissal and secrecy, it has become clear that a significant number of the world's governments take Unidentified Aerospace-Undersea Phenomena (UAP), formerly known as Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs), seriously -- yet still seem to know little about them. As a result, these phenomena are increasingly attracting the attention of scientists around the world, some of whom have recently formed research efforts to monitor and scientifically study UAP. In this paper, we review and summarize approximately 20 historical government studies dating from 1933 to the present (in Scandinavia, WWII, US, Canada, France, Russia, China), several historical private research studies (France, UK, US), and both recent and current scientific research efforts (Ireland, Germany, Norway, Sweden, US). In doing so, our objective is to clarify the existing global and historical scientific narrative around UAP. Studies range from field station development and deployment to the collection and analysis of witness reports from around the world. We dispel the common misconception that UAPs are an American phenomenon and show that UAP can be, and have been, scientifically investigated. Our aim here is to enable future studies to draw on the great depth of prior documented experience.

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arXiv2024

A Civilian Astronomer's Guide to UAP Research

Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) have historically been stigmatized and regarded as pseudoscience due to a general lack of robust evidence. Recently, however, the subject has gained interest among astronomers and the military. This review explores how astronomers can enhance our understanding of these enigmatic phenomena by focusing on empirical tests of specific hypotheses (e.g. the hypothesis of extraterrestrial visitations) rather than solely collecting and categorizing data. We compare the investigation of UAP to the process of calibration and interpretations of astronomical discoveries and propose a toy model involving a network of neuro-interface extraterrestrial probes to model exotic UAP. This model aids in predicting probe signatures and behaviour, improving detection methods, and addressing ethical concerns in UAP research.

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arXiv2023

A bright triple transient that vanished within 50 minutes

We report on three optically bright, ~15th mag, point-sources within 10 arcsec of each other that vanished within 1 hour, based on two consecutive exposures at Palomar Observatory on 1952 July 19 (POSS I Red and Blue). The three point-sources have continued to be absent in telescope exposures during 71 years with detection thresholds of ~21st mag. We obtained two deep exposures with the 10.4-m Gran Telescopio Canarias on 25 and 27 April 2023 in r and g-band, both reaching magnitude 25.5 (3-sigma). The three point-sources are still absent, implying they have dimmed by more than 10 magnitudes within an hour. When bright in 1952, the most isolated transient source has a profile nearly the same as comparison stars, implying the sources are sub-arcsec in angular size and they exhibit no elongation due to movement. This triple transient has observed properties similar to other cases where groups of transients ("multiple transients") have appeared and vanished in a small region within a plate exposure. The explanation for these three transients and the previously reported cases remains unclear. Models involving background objects that are optically luminous for less than one hour coupled with foreground gravitational lensing seem plausible. If so, a significant population of massive objects with structure serving as the lenses, to produce three images, are required to explain the hundreds of sub-hour transients.

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arXiv2023

Astronomical Anomalies: Their Role in the Quest for Extraterrestrial Life

Astronomers occasionally detect an object having unexpected shape, unexplainable photometry, or unprecedented spectra that are inconsistent with our contemporary knowledge of the universe. Upon careful assessment, many of these anomalies are discarded as mere noise, contamination, or faulty analysis. But some anomalies survive scrutiny to yield new astronomical objects and physical processes. Examples of validated anomalies include quasars, pulsars, and periodic Doppler shifts of Sun-like stars caused by the gravitational pull of orbiting planets. Other anomalies persist as mysteries, including Fast Radio Bursts, dark energy, 'Oumuamua as an alien spaceship, and simultaneously vanishing stars. Advanced technological life may present astronomers with anomalies that require carefully designed observations from multiple vantage points simultaneously and with real-time spectroscopy.

physics.pop-ph↗

arXiv2022

Launching the VASCO citizen science project

The Vanishing & Appearing Sources during a Century of Observations (VASCO) project investigates astronomical surveys spanning a time interval of 70 years, searching for unusual and exotic transients. We present herein the VASCO Citizen Science Project, which can identify unusual candidates driven by three different approaches: hypothesis, exploratory, and machine learning, which is particularly useful for SETI searches. To address the big data challenge, VASCO combines three methods: the Virtual Observatory, user-aided machine learning, and visual inspection through citizen science. Here we demonstrate the citizen science project and its improved candidate selection process, and we give a progress report. We also present the VASCO citizen science network led by amateur astronomy associations mainly located in Algeria, Cameroon, and Nigeria. At the moment of writing, the citizen science project has carefully examined 15,593 candidate image pairs in the data (ca. 10% of the candidates), and has so far identified 798 objects classified as "vanished". The most interesting candidates will be followed up with optical and infrared imaging, together with the observations by the most potent radio telescopes.

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arXiv2022

Multi-band Optical Variability of the TeV Blazar PG 1553+113 in 2019

We report the flux and spectral variability of PG 1553+113 on intra-night (IDV) to short-term timescales using BVRI data collected over 91 nights from 28 February to 8 November 2019 employing ten optical telescopes: three in Bulgaria, two each in India and Serbia, and one each in Greece, Georgia, and Latvia. We monitored the blazar quasi-simultaneously for 16 nights in the V and R bands and 8 nights in the V, R, I bands and examined the light curves (LCs) for intra-day flux and colour variations using two powerful tests: the power-enhanced F-test and the nested ANOVA test. The source was found to be significantly (> 99%) variable in 4 nights out of 27 in R-band, 1 out of 16 in V-band, and 1 out of 6 nights in I-band. No temporal variations in the colours were observed on IDV timescale. During the course of these observations the total variation in R-band was 0.89 mag observed. We also investigated the spectral energy distribution (SED) using B, V, R, and I band data. We found optical spectral indices in the range of 0.878+-0.029 to 1.106+-0.065 by fitting a power law to these SEDs of PG 1553+113. We found that the source follows a bluer-when-brighter trend on IDV timescales. We discuss possible physical causes of the observed spectral variability.

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arXiv2022

Long Term Multi-band Near Infra-Red Variability of the Blazar OJ 287 during 2007--2021

We present the most extensive and well-sampled long-term multi-band near-infrared (NIR) temporal and spectral variability study of OJ 287, considered to be the best candidate binary supermassive black hole blazar. These observations were made between December 2007 and November 2021. The source underwent ~ 2 -- 2.5 magnitude variations in the J, H, and Ks NIR bands. Over these long-term timescales there were no systematic trends in either flux or spectral evolution with time or with the source's flux states. However, on shorter timescales, there are significant variations in flux and spectra indicative of strong changes during different activity states. The NIR spectral energy distributions show diverse facets at each flux state, from the lowest to the highest. The spectra are, in general, consistent with a power-law spectral profile (within 10%) and many of them indicate minor changes (observationally insignificant) in the shift of the peak. The NIR spectra generally steepens during bright phases. We briefly discuss these behaviors in the context of blazar emission scenarios/mechanisms, OJ 287's well-known traditional behavior, and implications for models of the source central engine invoked for its long-term optical semi-periodic variations.

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arXiv2022

Is there a background population of high-albedo objects in geosynchronous orbits around Earth?

Old, digitized astronomical images taken before the human spacefaring age offer a unique view of the sky devoid of known artificial satellites. In this paper, we have carried out the first optical searches ever for non-terrestrial artifacts near the Earth following the method proposed in Villarroel et al. (2022). We use images contained in the First Palomar Sky Survey to search for simultaneous (during a plate exposure time) transients that in addition to being point-like, are aligned. We provide a shortlist of the most promising candidates of aligned transients, that must be examined with the help of a microscope to separate celestial sources from plate defects with coincidentally star-like brightness profiles. We further explore one possible, but not unique, interpretation in terms of fast reflections off high-albedo objects in geosynchronous orbits around Earth. If a future study rules out each multiple transient candidate, the estimated surface density becomes an upper limit of $<10^{-9}$ objects km$^{-2}$ non-terrestrial artifacts in geosynchronous orbits around Earth. Finally, we conclude that observations and analysis of multiple, simultaneously appearing and vanishing light sources on the sky merit serious further attention, regardless of their origin.

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arXiv2022

A glint in the eye: photographic plate archive searches for non-terrestrial artefacts

In this paper, we present a simple strategy to identify Non-Terrestrial artefacts \citep[NTAs;][]{Kopparapu} in or near geosynchronous Earth orbits (GEOs). We show that even the small pieces of reflective debris in orbit around the Earth can be identified through searches for multiple transients in old photographic plate material exposed before the launch of first human satellite in 1957. In order to separate between possible false point-like sources on photographic plates from real reflections, we present calculations to quantify the associated probabilities of alignments. We show that in an image with nine "simultaneous transients" at least four or five point sources along a line within a $10 \ast 10$ arcmin$^{2}$ image box are a strong indicator of NTAs, corresponding to significance levels of $2.5$ to $3.9 σ$. This given methodology can then be applied to set an upper limit to the prevalence of NTAs with reflective surfaces in geosynchronous orbits.

physics.pop-ph↗

arXiv2021

Exploring nine simultaneously occurring transients on April 12th 1950

Nine point sources appeared within half an hour on a region within $\sim$ 10 arcmin of a red-sensitive photographic plate taken in April 1950 as part of the historic Palomar Sky Survey. All nine sources are absent on both previous and later photographic images, and absent in modern surveys with CCD detectors which go several magnitudes deeper. We present deep CCD images with the 10.4-meter Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC), reaching brightness $r \sim 26$ mag, that reveal possible optical counterparts, although these counterparts could equally well be just chance projections. The incidence of transients in the investigated photographic plate is far higher than expected from known detection rates of optical counterparts to e.g.\ flaring dwarf stars, Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs), Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs) or microlensing events. One possible explanation is that the plates have been subjected to an unknown type of contamination producing mainly point sources with of varying intensities along with some mechanism of concentration within a radius of $\sim$ 10 arcmin on the plate. If contamination as an explanation can be fully excluded, another possibility is fast (t $<0.5$ s) solar reflections from objects near geosynchronous orbits. An alternative route to confirm the latter scenario is by looking for images from the First Palomar Sky Survey where multiple transients follow a line.

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arXiv2020

Evaluation of investigational paradigms for the discovery of non-canonical astrophysical phenomena

Non-canonical phenomena - defined here as observables which are either insufficiently characterized by existing theory, or otherwise represent inconsistencies with prior observations - are of burgeoning interest in the field of astrophysics, particularly due to their relevance as potential signs of past and/or extant life in the universe (e.g. off-nominal spectroscopic data from exoplanets). However, an inherent challenge in investigating such phenomena is that, by definition, they do not conform to existing predictions, thereby making it difficult to constrain search parameters and develop an associated falsifiable hypothesis. In this Expert Recommendation, the authors evaluate the suitability of two different approaches - conventional parameterized investigation (wherein experimental design is tailored to optimally test a focused, explicitly parameterized hypothesis of interest) and the alternative approach of anomaly searches (wherein broad-spectrum observational data is collected with the aim of searching for potential anomalies across a wide array of metrics) - in terms of their efficacy in achieving scientific objectives in this context. The authors provide guidelines on the appropriate use-cases for each paradigm, and contextualize the discussion through its applications to the interdisciplinary field of technosignatures (a discipline at the intersection of astrophysics and astrobiology), which essentially specializes in searching for non-canonical astrophysical phenomena.

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