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Ben Powell

Publications and source records attributed to Ben Powell.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Learning Interpretable Text Signals for Structured Responses

Textual data are often collected alongside structured response variables, but prediction and interpretation are commonly treated as separate tasks. This paper studies rating prediction as an initial case of interpretable text-response modelling, where the aim is to learn textual representations that are both semantically meaningful and aligned with an external response. We propose a joint non-negative matrix factorisation and binomial regression model, in which the document-topic representation is learned from both text reconstruction and rating prediction. Simulation experiments and a real-world review dataset show that the model can recover stable response-relevant textual signals and achieve competitive performance against linear and ridge regression baselines. The framework provides a practical step towards interpretable modelling of text-linked outcomes, with potential extensions to other response types beyond bounded ratings.

stat.AP

Kairosis: A method for dynamical probability forecast aggregation informed by Bayesian change point detection

We present a new method, "kairosis", for aggregating probability forecasts made over a time period of a single outcome determined at the end of that period. Informed by work on Bayesian change-point detection, we begin by constructing for each time during the period a posterior probability that the forecasts before and after this time are distributed differently. The resulting posterior probability mass function is integrated to give a cumulative mass function, which is used to create a weighted median forecast. The effect is to construct an aggregate in which the most heavily weighted forecasts are those which have been made since the probable most recent change in the forecasts' distribution. Kairosis outperforms standard methods, and is especially suitable for geopolitical forecasting tournaments because it is observed to be robust across disparate questions and forecaster distributions.

stat.AP

Supplementary Material for "Should we sample a time series more frequently? Decision support via multirate spectrum estimation (with discussion)"

This technical report includes an assortment of technical details and extended discussions related to paper "Should we sample a time series more frequently? Decision support via multirate spectrum estimation (with discussion)", which introduces a model for estimating the log-spectral density of a stationary discrete time process given systematically missing data and models the cost implication for changing the sampling rate.

stat.ME