arXiv subjects

Bengüsu Özcan

Publications and source records attributed to Bengüsu Özcan.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Europe and the Geopolitics of AGI: The Need for a Preparedness Plan

Artificial general intelligence (AGI)--defined here as AI systems that match or exceed humans at most economically useful cognitive work--has moved from speculation to the centre of political and strategic debate. This paper examines three questions: how soon AGI might emerge, how it could reshape geopolitics, and whether Europe is adequately prepared. Drawing on empirical trends in AI capabilities, expert forecasting surveys, and policy analysis, we find that a plausible window for AGI emergence falls between 2030 and 2040, or potentially earlier, though substantial uncertainty remains. Our analysis of the geopolitical implications suggests that AGI could fundamentally alter the global distribution of economic and military power, intensify interstate competition, and strain existing governance frameworks. Assessing Europe's current positioning, we identify critical gaps: limited strategic awareness of frontier AI progress, structural weaknesses in compute infrastructure and talent retention, low rates of industrial AI adoption, and fragmented policy responses at both EU and Member State levels that do not match the potential scale of disruption.These findings point to a need for a coordinated European preparedness agenda. We outline policy options centred on building institutional capacity for AGI situational awareness, strengthening Europe's position in the AI value chain, and developing frameworks for international stability in an era of increasingly capable AI systems.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Beyond the Binary: A nuanced path for open-weight advanced AI

Open-weight advanced AI models -- systems whose parameters are freely available for download and adaptation -- are reshaping the global AI landscape. As these models rapidly close the performance gap with closed alternatives, they enable breakthrough research and broaden access to powerful tools. However, once released, they cannot be recalled, and their built-in safeguards can be bypassed through fine-tuning or jailbreaking, posing risks that current governance frameworks are not equipped to address. This report moves beyond the binary framing of ``open'' versus ``closed'' AI. We assess the current landscape of open-weight advanced AI, examining technical capabilities, risk profiles, and regulatory responses across the European Union, United States, China, the United Kingdom, and international forums. We find significant disparities in safety practices across developers and jurisdictions, with no commonly adopted standards for determining when or how advanced models should be released openly. We propose a tiered, safety-anchored approach to model release, where openness is determined by rigorous risk assessment and demonstrated safety rather than ideology or commercial pressure. We outline actionable recommendations for developers, evaluators, standard-setters, and policymakers to enable responsible openness while investing in technical safeguards and societal preparedness.

cs.CY↗