arXiv subjects

Benjamin Charnay

Publications and source records attributed to Benjamin Charnay.

72 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

Exoplanet Diversity in the Era of Space-based Direct Imaging Missions

This whitepaper discusses the diversity of exoplanets that could be detected by future observations, so that comparative exoplanetology can be performed in the upcoming era of large space-based flagship missions. The primary focus will be on characterizing Earth-like worlds around Sun-like stars. However, we will also be able to characterize companion planets in the system simultaneously. This will not only provide a contextual picture with regards to our Solar system, but also presents a unique opportunity to observe size dependent planetary atmospheres at different orbital distances. We propose a preliminary scheme based on chemical behavior of gases and condensates in a planet's atmosphere that classifies them with respect to planetary radius and incident stellar flux.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

Exo-Milankovitch Cycles I: Orbits and Rotation States

The obliquity of the Earth, which controls our seasons, varies by only ~2.5 degrees over ~40,000 years, and its eccentricity varies by only ~0.05 over 100,000 years. Nonetheless, these small variations influence Earth's ice ages. For exoplanets, however, variations can be significantly larger. Previous studies of the habitability of moonless Earth-like exoplanets have found that high obliquities, high eccentricities, and dynamical variations can extend the outer edge of the habitable zone by preventing runaway glaciation (snowball states). We expand upon these studies by exploring the orbital dynamics with a semi-analytic model that allows us to map broad regions of parameter space. We find that in general, the largest drivers of obliquity variations are secular spin-orbit resonances. We show how the obliquity varies in several test cases, including Kepler-62 f, across a wide range of orbital and spin parameters. These obliquity variations, alongside orbital variations, will have a dramatic impact on the climates of such planets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

Simultaneous, Multi-Wavelength Variability Characterization of the Free-Floating Planetary Mass Object PSO J318.5-22

We present simultaneous HST WFC3 + Spitzer IRAC variability monitoring for the highly-variable young ($\sim$20 Myr) planetary-mass object PSO J318.5-22. Our simultaneous HST + Spitzer observations covered $\sim$2 rotation periods with Spitzer and most of a rotation period with HST. We derive a period of 8.6$\pm$0.1 hours from the Spitzer lightcurve. Combining this period with the measured $v sin i$ for this object, we find an inclination of 56.2$\pm 8.1^{\circ}$. We measure peak-to-trough variability amplitudes of 3.4$\pm$0.1$\%$ for Spitzer Channel 2 and 4.4 - 5.8$\%$ (typical 68$\%$ confidence errors of $\sim$0.3$\%$) in the near-IR bands (1.07-1.67 $μ$m) covered by the WFC3 G141 prism -- the mid-IR variability amplitude for PSO J318.5-22 one of the highest variability amplitudes measured in the mid-IR for any brown dwarf or planetary mass object. Additionally, we detect phase offsets ranging from 200--210$^{\circ}$ (typical error of $\sim$4$^{\circ}$) between synthesized near-IR lightcurves and the Spitzer mid-IR lightcurve, likely indicating depth-dependent longitudinal atmospheric structure in this atmosphere. The detection of similar variability amplitudes in wide spectral bands relative to absorption features suggests that the driver of the variability may be inhomogeneous clouds (perhaps a patchy haze layer over thick clouds), as opposed to hot spots or compositional inhomogeneities at the top-of-atmosphere level.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

A self-consistent cloud model for brown dwarfs and young giant exoplanets: comparison with photometric and spectroscopic observations

We developed a simple, physical and self-consistent cloud model for brown dwarfs and young giant exoplanets. We compared different parametrisations for the cloud particle size, by either fixing particle radii, or fixing the mixing efficiency (parameter fsed) or estimating particle radii from simple microphysics. The cloud scheme with simple microphysics appears as the best parametrisation by successfully reproducing the observed photometry and spectra of brown dwarfs and young giant exoplanets. In particular, it reproduces the L-T transition, due to the condensation of silicate and iron clouds below the visible/near-IR photosphere. It also reproduces the reddening observed for low-gravity objects, due to an increase of cloud optical depth for low gravity. In addition, we found that the cloud greenhouse effect shifts chemical equilibriums, increasing the abundances of species stable at high temperature. This effect should significantly contribute to the strong variation of methane abundance at the L-T transition and to the methane depletion observed on young exoplanets. Finally, we predict the existence of a continuum of brown dwarfs and exoplanets for absolute J magnitude=15-18 and J-K color=0-3, due to the evolution of the L-T transition with gravity. This self-consistent model therefore provides a general framework to understand the effects of clouds and appears well-suited for atmospheric retrievals.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

CO2 condensation is a serious limit to the deglaciation of Earth-like planets

It is widely believed that the carbonate-silicate cycle is the main agent to trigger deglaciations by CO$_2$ greenhouse warming on Earth and on Earth-like planets when they get in frozen state. Here we use a 3D Global Climate Model to simulate the ability of frozen planets to escape from glaciation by accumulating enough gaseous CO$_2$. We find that Earth-like planets orbiting a Sun-like star may never be able to escape from glaciation if their orbital distance is greater than $\sim$ 1.27 AU (Flux $<$ 847 W m$^{-2}$ or 62$\%$ of the Solar constant), because CO$_2$ would condense at the poles forming permanent CO$_2$ ice caps. This limits the amount of CO$_2$ in the atmosphere and thus its greenhouse effect. The amount of CO$_2$ that can be trapped in the polar caps depends on the efficiency of CO$_2$ ice to flow laterally as well as its graviational stability relative to subsurface water ice. The flow of CO$_2$ ice from poles to equator is mostly controlled by the bottom temperature, and hence by the internal heat flux. We find that a frozen Earth-like planet located at 1.30 AU of a Sun-like star could store as much as 1.5/4.5/15 bars of dry ice at the poles, for internal heat fluxes of 100/30/10 mW m$^{-2}$. But these amounts are lower limits. For planets with a significant water ice cover, we show that CO$_2$ ice deposits should be gravitationnally unstable. They get buried beneath the water ice cover in geologically short timescales of $\sim$~10$^4$ yrs, mainly controlled by the viscosity of water ice. CO$_2$ would be permanently sequestered underneath the water ice cover, in the form of CO$_2$ liquids, CO$_2$ clathrate hydrates and/or dissolved in subglacial water reservoirs (if any). This would considerably increase the amount of CO$_2$ trapped and further reduce the probability of deglaciation.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

A warm or a cold early Earth? New insights from a 3-D climate-carbon model

Oxygen isotopes in marine cherts have been used to infer hot oceans during the Archean with temperatures between 60°C (333 K) and 80°C (353 K). Such climates are challenging for the early Earth warmed by the faint young Sun. The interpretation of the data has therefore been controversial. 1D climate modeling inferred that such hot climates would require very high levels of CO2 (2-6 bars). Previous carbon cycle modeling concluded that such stable hot climates were impossible and that the carbon cycle should lead to cold climates during the Hadean and the Archean. Here, we revisit the climate and carbon cycle of the early Earth at 3.8 Ga using a 3D climate-carbon model. We find that CO2 partial pressures of around 1 bar could have produced hot climates given a low land fraction and cloud feedback effects. However, such high CO2 partial pressures should not have been stable because of the weathering of terrestrial and oceanic basalts, producing an efficient stabilizing feedback. Moreover, the weathering of impact ejecta during the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) would have strongly reduced the CO2 partial pressure leading to cold climates and potentially snowball Earth events after large impacts. Our results therefore favor cold or temperate climates with global mean temperatures between around 8°C (281 K) and 30°C (303 K) and with 0.1-0.36 bar of CO2 for the late Hadean and early Archean. Finally, our model suggests that the carbon cycle was efficient for preserving clement conditions on the early Earth without necessarily requiring any other greenhouse gas or warming process.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

The Pale Orange Dot: The Spectrum and Habitability of Hazy Archean Earth

Recognizing whether a planet can support life is a primary goal of future exoplanet spectral characterization missions, but past research on habitability assessment has largely ignored the vastly different conditions that have existed in our planet's long habitable history. This study presents simulations of a habitable yet dramatically different phase of Earth's history, when the atmosphere contained a Titan-like organic-rich haze. Prior work has claimed a haze-rich Archean Earth (3.8-2.5 billion years ago) would be frozen due to the haze's cooling effects. However, no previous studies have self-consistently taken into account climate, photochemistry, and fractal hazes. Here, we demonstrate using coupled climate-photochemical-microphysical simulations that hazes can cool the planet's surface by about 20 K, but habitable conditions with liquid surface water could be maintained with a relatively thick haze layer (tau ~ 5 at 200 nm) even with the fainter young sun. We find that optically thicker hazes are self-limiting due to their self-shielding properties, preventing catastrophic cooling of the planet. Hazes may even enhance planetary habitability through UV shielding, reducing surface UV flux by about 97% compared to a haze-free planet, and potentially allowing survival of land-based organisms 2.6.2.7 billion years ago. The broad UV absorption signature produced by this haze may be visible across interstellar distances, allowing characterization of similar hazy exoplanets. The haze in Archean Earth's atmosphere was strongly dependent on biologically-produced methane, and we propose hydrocarbon haze may be a novel type of spectral biosignature on planets with substantial levels of CO2. Hazy Archean Earth is the most alien world for which we have geochemical constraints on environmental conditions, providing a useful analog for similar habitable, anoxic exoplanets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

The Effect of Orbital Configuration on the Possible Climates and Habitability of Kepler-62f

As lower-mass stars often host multiple rocky planets, gravitational interactions among planets can have significant effects on climate and habitability over long timescales. Here we explore a specific case, Kepler-62f, a potentially habitable planet in a five-planet system with a K2V host star. N-body integrations reveal the stable range of initial eccentricities for Kepler-62f is $0.00 \leqslant e \leqslant 0.32$, absent the effect of additional, undetected planets. We simulate the tidal evolution of Kepler-62f in this range and find that, for certain assumptions, the planet can be locked in a synchronous rotation state. Simulations using LMD Generic GCM indicate that with 3 bars of CO$_2$ in its atmosphere, Kepler-62f would only be warm enough for surface liquid water at the upper limit of this eccentricity range, providing it has a high planetary obliquity (between 60$^\circ$ and 90$^\circ$). A climate similar to modern-day Earth is possible for the entire range of stable eccentricities if atmospheric CO$_2$ is increased to 5-bar levels. In a low-CO$_2$ case, simulations with CCSM4 and LMD Generic GCM indicate that increases in planetary obliquity and orbital eccentricity coupled with an orbital configuration that places the summer solstice at or near pericenter permit regions of the planet with above-freezing surface temperatures. This may melt ice sheets formed during colder seasons. If Kepler-62f is synchronously rotating and has an ocean, CO$_2$ levels above 3 bars would be required to distribute enough heat to the night side of the planet to avoid atmospheric freeze-out and permit a large enough region of open water at the planet's substellar point to remain stable. Overall, we find multiple plausible combinations of orbital and atmospheric properties that permit surface liquid water on Kepler-62f.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

Is the Pale Blue Dot unique? Optimized photometric bands for identifying Earth-like exoplanets

The next generation of ground and space-based telescopes will image habitable planets around nearby stars. A growing literature describes how to characterize such planets with spectroscopy, but less consideration has been given to the usefulness of planet colors. Here, we investigate whether potentially Earth-like exoplanets could be identified using UV-visible-to-NIR wavelength broadband photometry (350-1000 nm). Specifically, we calculate optimal photometric bins for identifying an exo-Earth and distinguishing it from uninhabitable planets including both Solar System objects and model exoplanets. The color of some hypothetical exoplanets - particularly icy terrestrial worlds with thick atmospheres - is similar to Earth's because of Rayleigh scattering in the blue region of the spectrum. Nevertheless, subtle features in Earth's reflectance spectrum appear to be unique. In particular, Earth's reflectance spectrum has a 'U-shape' unlike all our hypothetical, uninhabitable planets. This shape is partly biogenic because O2-rich, oxidizing air is transparent to sunlight, allowing prominent Rayleigh scattering, while ozone absorbs visible light, creating the bottom of the 'U'. Whether such uniqueness has practical utility depends on observational noise. If observations are photon limited or dominated by astrophysical sources (zodiacal light or imperfect starlight suppression), then the use of broadband visible wavelength photometry to identify Earth twins has little practical advantage over obtaining detailed spectra. However, if observations are dominated by dark current then optimized photometry could greatly assist preliminary characterization. We also calculate the optimal photometric bins for identifying extrasolar Archean Earths, and find that the Archean Earth is more difficult to unambiguously identify than a modern Earth twin.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

3D modeling of GJ1214b's atmosphere: formation of inhomogeneous high clouds and observational implications

The warm sub-Neptune GJ1214b has a featureless transit spectrum which may be due to the presence of high and thick clouds or haze. Here, we simulate the atmosphere of GJ1214b with a 3D General Circulation Model for cloudy hydrogen-dominated atmospheres, including cloud radiative effects. We show that the atmospheric circulation is strong enough to transport micrometric cloud particles to the upper atmosphere and generally leads to a minimum of cloud at the equator. By scattering stellar light, clouds increase the planetary albedo to 0.4-0.6 and cool the atmosphere below 1 mbar. However, the heating by ZnS clouds leads to the formation of a stratospheric thermal inversion above 10 mbar, with temperatures potentially high enough on the dayside to evaporate KCl clouds. We show that flat transit spectra consistent with HST observations are possible if cloud particle radii are around 0.5 micron, and that such clouds should be optically thin at wavelengths > 3 microns. Using simulated cloudy atmospheres that fit the observed spectra we generate transit, emission and reflection spectra and phase curves for GJ1214b. We show that a stratospheric thermal inversion would be readily accessible in near and mid-infrared atmospheric spectral windows. We find that the amplitude of the thermal phase curves is strongly dependent on metallicity, but only slightly impacted by clouds. Our results suggest that primary and secondary eclipses and phase curves observed by the James Webb Space Telescope in the near to mid-infrared should provide strong constraints on the nature of GJ1214b's atmosphere and clouds.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

3D modeling of GJ1214b's atmosphere: vertical mixing driven by an anti-Hadley circulation

GJ1214b is a warm sub-Neptune transiting in front of a nearby M dwarf star. Recent observations indicate the presence of high and thick clouds or haze whose presence requires strong atmospheric mixing. In order to understand the transport and distribution of such clouds/haze, we study the atmospheric circulation and the vertical mixing of GJ1214b with a 3D General Circulation Model for cloud-free hydrogen-dominated atmospheres (metallicity of 1, 10 and 100 times the solar value) and for a water-dominated atmosphere. We analyze the effect of the atmospheric metallicity on the thermal structure and zonal winds. We also analyze the zonal mean meridional circulation and show that it corresponds to an anti-Hadley circulation in most of the atmosphere with upwelling at mid-latitude and downwelling at the equator in average. This circulation must be present on a large range of synchronously rotating exoplanets with strong impact on cloud formation and distribution. Using simple tracers, we show that vertical winds on GJ1214b can be strong enough to loft micrometric particles and that the anti-Hadley circulation leads to a minimum of tracers at the equator. We find that the strength of the vertical mixing increases with metallicity. We derive 1D equivalent eddy diffusion coefficients and find simple parametrizations from Kzz=7x10^2xP_{bar}^{-0.4} m^2/s for solar metallicity to Kzz=3x10^3xP_{bar}^{-0.4} m^2/s for the 100xsolar metallicity. These values should favor an efficient formation of photochemical haze in the upper atmosphere of GJ1214b.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

Methane storms as a driver of Titan's dune orientation

Titan's equatorial regions are covered by eastward propagating linear dunes. This direction is opposite to mean surface winds simulated by Global Climate Models (GCMs), which are oriented westward at these latitudes, similar to trade winds on Earth. Different hypotheses have been proposed to address this apparent contradiction, involving Saturn's gravitational tides, large scale topography or wind statistics, but none of them can explain a global eastward dune propagation in the equatorial band. Here we analyse the impact of equinoctial tropical methane storms developing in the superrotating atmosphere (i.e. the eastward winds at high altitude) on Titan's dune orientation. Using mesoscale simulations of convective methane clouds with a GCM wind profile featuring superrotation, we show that Titan's storms should produce fast eastward gust fronts above the surface. Such gusts dominate the aeolian transport, allowing dunes to extend eastward. This analysis therefore suggests a coupling between superrotation, tropical methane storms and dune formation on Titan. Furthermore, together with GCM predictions and analogies to some terrestrial dune fields, this work provides a general framework explaining several major features of Titan's dunes: linear shape, eastward propagation and poleward divergence, and implies an equatorial origin of Titan's dune sand.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2014

Titan's past and future: 3D modeling of a pure nitrogen atmosphere and geological implications

Several clues indicate that Titan's atmosphere has been depleted in methane during some period of its history, possibly as recently as 0.5-1 billion years ago. It could also happen in the future. Under these conditions, the atmosphere becomes only composed of nitrogen with a range of temperature and pressure allowing liquid or solid nitrogen to condense. Here, we explore these exotic climates throughout Titan's history with a 3D Global Climate Model (GCM) including the nitrogen cycle and the radiative effect of nitrogen clouds. We show that for the last billion years, only small polar nitrogen lakes should have formed. Yet, before 1 Ga, a significant part of the atmosphere could have condensed, forming deep nitrogen polar seas, which could have flowed and flooded the equatorial regions. Alternatively, nitrogen could be frozen on the surface like on Triton, but this would require an initial surface albedo higher than 0.65 at 4 Ga. Such a state could be stable even today if nitrogen ice albedo is higher than this value. According to our model, nitrogen flows and rain may have been efficient to erode the surface. Thus, we can speculate that a paleo-nitrogen cycle may explain the erosion and the age of Titan's surface, and may have produced some of the present valley networks and shorelines. Moreover, by diffusion of liquid nitrogen in the crust, a paleo-nitrogen cycle could be responsible of the flattening of the polar regions and be at the origin of the methane outgassing on Titan.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2014

Librational response of a deformed 3-layer Titan perturbed by non-keplerian orbit and atmospheric couplings

The analyses of Titan's gravity field obtained by Cassini space mission suggest the presence of an internal ocean beneath its icy surface. The characterization of the geophysical parameters of the icy shell and the ocean is important to constrain the evolution models of Titan. The knowledge of the librations, that are periodic oscillations around a uniform rotational motion, can bring piece of information on the interior parameters. The objective of this paper is to study the librational response in longitude from an analytical approach for Titan composed of a deep atmosphere, an elastic icy shell, an internal ocean, and an elastic rocky core perturbed by the gravitational interactions with Saturn. We start from the librational equations developed for a rigid satellite in synchronous spin-orbit resonance. We introduce explicitly the atmospheric torque acting on the surface computed from the Titan IPSL GCM (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace General Circulation Model) and the periodic deformations of elastic solid layers due to the tides. We investigate the librational response for various interior models in order to compare and to identify the influence of the geophysical parameters and the impact of the elasticity. The main librations arise at two well-separated forcing frequency ranges: low forcing frequencies dominated by the Saturnian annual and semi-annual frequencies, and a high forcing frequency regime dominated by Titan's orbital frequency around Saturn. We find that internal structure models including an internal ocean with elastic solid layers lead to the same order of libration amplitude than the oceanless models, which makes more challenging to differentiate them by the interpretation of librational motion.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2013

Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth like planets

Because the solar luminosity increases over geological timescales, Earth climate is expected to warm, increasing water evaporation which, in turn, enhances the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can "runaway" until all the oceans are evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may also cause oceans to escape to space before the runaway greenhouse occurs. The critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain because they have so far been evaluated with unidimensional models that cannot account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing features of Earth's climate. Here we use a 3D global climate model to show that the threshold for the runaway greenhouse is about 375 W/m$^2$, significantly higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that clouds have a destabilizing feedback on the long term warming. However, subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a stabilizing effect that is strong enough to defer the runaway greenhouse limit to higher insolation than inferred from 1D models. Furthermore, because of wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains cold and dry enough to hamper atmospheric water escape, even at large fluxes. This has strong implications for Venus early water history and extends the size of the habitable zone around other stars.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2013

Exploring the faint young Sun problem and the possible climates of the Archean Earth with a 3-D GCM

Different solutions have been proposed to solve the "faint young Sun problem", defined by the fact that the Earth was not fully frozen during the Archean despite the fainter Sun. Most previous studies were performed with simple 1-D radiative convective models and did not account well for the clouds and ice-albedo feedback or the atmospheric and oceanic transport of energy. We apply a global climate model (GCM) to test the different solutions to the faint young Sun problem. We explore the effect of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4), atmospheric pressure, cloud droplet size, land distribution, and Earth's rotation rate. We show that neglecting organic haze, 100 mbar of CO2 with 2 mbar of CH4 at 3.8 Ga and 10 mbar of CO2 with 2 mbar of CH4 at 2.5 Ga allow a temperate climate (mean surface temperature between 10°C and 20°C). Such amounts of greenhouse gases remain consistent with the geological data. Removing continents produces a warming lower than +4°C. The effect of rotation rate is even more limited. Larger droplets (radii of 17 microns versus 12 microns) and a doubling of the atmospheric pressure produce a similar warming of around +7°C. In our model, ice-free water belts can be maintained up to 25°N/S with less than 1 mbar of CO2 and no methane. An interesting cloud feedback appears above cold oceans, stopping the glaciation. Such a resistance against full glaciation tends to strongly mitigate the faint young Sun problem.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2013

3D climate modeling of close-in land planets: Circulation patterns, climate moist bistability and habitability

The inner edge of the classical habitable zone is often defined by the critical flux needed to trigger the runaway greenhouse instability. This 1D notion of a critical flux, however, may not be so relevant for inhomogeneously irradiated planets, or when the water content is limited (land planets). Here, based on results from our 3D global climate model, we find that the circulation pattern can shift from super-rotation to stellar/anti stellar circulation when the equatorial Rossby deformation radius significantly exceeds the planetary radius. Using analytical and numerical arguments, we also demonstrate the presence of systematic biases between mean surface temperatures or temperature profiles predicted from either 1D or 3D simulations. Including a complete modeling of the water cycle, we further demonstrate that for land planets closer than the inner edge of the classical habitable zone, two stable climate regimes can exist. One is the classical runaway state, and the other is a collapsed state where water is captured in permanent cold traps. We identify this "moist" bistability as the result of a competition between the greenhouse effect of water vapor and its condensation. We also present synthetic spectra showing the observable signature of these two states. Taking the example of two prototype planets in this regime, namely Gl581c and HD85512b, we argue that they could accumulate a significant amount of water ice at their surface. If such a thick ice cap is present, gravity driven ice flows and geothermal flux should come into play to produce long-lived liquid water at the edge and/or bottom of the ice cap. Consequently, the habitability of planets at smaller orbital distance than the inner edge of the classical habitable zone cannot be ruled out. Transiting planets in this regime represent promising targets for upcoming observatories like EChO and JWST.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2011

Gliese 581d is the first discovered terrestrial-mass exoplanet in the habitable zone

It has been suggested that the recently discovered exoplanet GJ581d might be able to support liquid water due to its relatively low mass and orbital distance. However, GJ581d receives 35% less stellar energy than Mars and is probably locked in tidal resonance, with extremely low insolation at the poles and possibly a permanent night side. Under such conditions, it is unknown whether any habitable climate on the planet would be able to withstand global glaciation and / or atmospheric collapse. Here we present three-dimensional climate simulations that demonstrate GJ581d will have a stable atmosphere and surface liquid water for a wide range of plausible cases, making it the first confirmed super-Earth (exoplanet of 2-10 Earth masses) in the habitable zone. We find that atmospheres with over 10 bar CO2 and varying amounts of background gas (e.g., N2) yield global mean temperatures above 0 degrees Celsius for both land and ocean-covered surfaces. Based on the emitted IR radiation calculated by the model, we propose observational tests that will allow these cases to be distinguished from other possible scenarios in the future.

astro-ph.EP↗