arXiv subjects

Benjamin E. Nelson

Publications and source records attributed to Benjamin E. Nelson.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2020

Sensitivity Analyses of Exoplanet Occurrence Rates from Kepler and Gaia

We infer the number of planets-per-star as a function of orbital period and planet size using $Kepler$ archival data products with updated stellar properties from the $Gaia$ Data Release 2. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we incorporate planet radius uncertainties into an inhomogeneous Poisson point process model. We demonstrate that this model captures the general features of the outcome of the planet formation and evolution around GK stars, and provides an infrastructure to use the $Kepler$ results to constrain analytic planet distribution models. We report an increased mean and variance in the marginal posterior distributions for the number of planets per $GK$ star when including planet radius measurement uncertainties. We estimate the number of planets-per-$GK$ star between 0.75 and 2.5 $R_{\oplus}$ and 50 to 300 day orbital periods to have a $68\%$ credible interval of $0.49$ to $0.77$ and a posterior mean of $0.63$. This posterior has a smaller mean and a larger variance than the occurrence rate calculated in this work and in Burke et al. (2015) for the same parameter space using the $Q1-Q16$ (previous $Kepler$ planet candidate and stellar catalog). We attribute the smaller mean to many of the instrumental false positives at longer orbital periods being removed from the $DR25$ catalog. We find that the accuracy and precision of our hierarchical Bayesian model posterior distributions are less sensitive to the total number of planets in the sample, and more so on the characteristics of the catalog completeness and reliability and the span of the planet parameter space.

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arXiv2019

Quantifying the Bayesian Evidence for a Planet in Radial Velocity Data

We present results from a data challenge posed to the radial velocity (RV) community: namely, to quantify the Bayesian "evidence" for n={0,1,2,3} planets in a set of synthetically generated RV datasets containing a range of planet signals. Participating teams were provided the same likelihood function and set of priors to use in their analysis. They applied a variety of methods to estimate Z, the marginal likelihood for each n-planet model, including cross-validation, the Laplace approximation, importance sampling, and nested sampling. We found the dispersion in Z across different methods grew with increasing n-planet models: ~3 for 0-planets, ~10 for 1-planet, ~100-1000 for 2-planets, and >10,000 for 3-planets. Most internal estimates of uncertainty in Z for individual methods significantly underestimated the observed dispersion across all methods. Methods that adopted a Monte Carlo approach by comparing estimates from multiple runs yielded plausible uncertainties. Finally, two classes of numerical algorithms (those based on importance and nested samplers) arrived at similar conclusions regarding the ratio of Zs for n and (n+1)-planet models. One analytic method (the Laplace approximation) demonstrated comparable performance. We express both optimism and caution: we demonstrate that it is practical to perform rigorous Bayesian model comparison for <=3-planet models, yet robust planet discoveries require researchers to better understand the uncertainty in Z and its connections to model selection.

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arXiv2018

Forming Gliese 876 Through Smooth Disk Migration

We run a suite of dissipative N-body simulations to determine which regions of phase space for smooth disk migration are consistent with the GJ876 system, an M-dwarf hosting three planets orbiting in a chaotic 4:2:1 Laplace resonance. We adopt adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) methods which are commonly used in hydrodynamical simulations to efficiently explore the parameter space defined by the semi-major axis and eccentricity damping timescales. We find that there is a large region of phase space which produces systems in the chaotic Laplace resonance and a smaller region consistent with the observed eccentricities and libration amplitudes for the resonant angles. Under the assumptions of Type I migration for the outer planet, we translate these damping timescales into constraints on the protoplanetary disk surface density and thickness. When we strongly (weakly) damp the eccentricities of the inner two Laplace planets, these timescales correspond to disk surface densities around ten thousand (a few hundred) grams per square centimeter and disk aspect ratios between 1-10%. Additionally, smooth migration produces systems with a range of chaotic timescales, from decades and centuries to upwards of thousands of years. In agreement with previous studies, the less chaotic regions of phase space coincide with the system being in a low energy double apsidal corotation resonance. Our detailed modeling of multi-planetary systems coupled with our AMR exploration method enhances our ability to map out the parameter space of planet formation models, and is well suited to study other resonant chain systems such as Trappist-1, Kepler-60, and others.

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arXiv2018

Systematic mischaracterization of exoplanetary system dynamical histories from a model degeneracy near mean-motion resonance

There is a degeneracy in the radial velocity exoplanet signal between a single planet on an eccentric orbit and a two-planet system with a period ratio of 2:1. This degeneracy could lead to misunderstandings of the dynamical histories of planetary systems as well as measurements of planetary abundances if the correct architecture is not established. We constrain the rate of mischaracterization by analyzing a sample of 60 non-transiting, radial velocity systems orbiting main sequence stars from the NASA Exoplanet Archive (NASA Archive) using a new Bayesian model comparison pipeline. We find that 15 systems (25% of our sample) show compelling evidence for the two-planet case with a confidence level of 95%.

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arXiv2018

The crucial role of ground-based, Doppler measurements for the future of exoplanet science

We outline the important role that ground-based, Doppler monitoring of exoplanetary systems will play in advancing our theories of planet formation and dynamical evolution. A census of planetary systems requires a well designed survey to be executed over the course of a decade or longer. A coordinated survey to monitor several thousand targets each at ~1000 epochs (~3-5 million new observations) will require roughly 40 dedicated spectrographs. We advocate for improvements in data management, data sharing, analysis techniques, and software testing, as well as possible changes to the funding structures for exoplanet science.

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arXiv2017

Evidence for Two Hot Jupiter Formation Paths

Disk migration and high-eccentricity migration are two well-studied theories to explain the formation of hot Jupiters. The former predicts that these planets can migrate up until the planet-star Roche separation ($a_{Roche}$) and the latter predicts they will tidally circularize at a minimum distance of 2$a_{Roche}$. Considering long-running radial velocity and transit surveys have identified a couple hundred hot Jupiters to date, we can revisit the classic question of hot Jupiter formation in a data-driven manner. We approach this problem using data from several exoplanet surveys (radial velocity, Kepler, HAT, and WASP) allowing for either a single population or a mixture of populations associated with these formation channels, and applying a hierarchical Bayesian mixture model of truncated power laws of the form $x^{γ-1}$ to constrain the population-level parameters of interest (e.g., location of inner edges, $γ$, mixture fractions). Within the limitations of our chosen models, we find the current radial velocity and Kepler sample of hot Jupiters can be well explained with a single truncated power law distribution with a lower cutoff near 2$a_{Roche}$, a result that still holds after a decade, and $γ=-0.51\pm^{0.19}_{0.20}$. However, the HAT and WASP data show evidence for multiple populations (Bayes factor $\approx 10^{21}$). We find that $15\pm^{9}_{6}\%$ reside in a component consistent with disk migration ($γ=-0.04\pm^{0.53}_{1.27}$) and $85\pm^{6}_{9}\%$ in one consistent with high-eccentricity migration ($γ=-1.38\pm^{0.32}_{0.47}$). We find no immediately strong connections with some observed host star properties and speculate on how future exoplanet surveys could improve upon hot Jupiter population inference.

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arXiv2015

An Empirically Derived Three-Dimensional Laplace Resonance in the Gliese 876 Planetary System

We report constraints on the three-dimensional orbital architecture for all four planets known to orbit the nearby M dwarf Gliese 876 based solely on Doppler measurements and demanding long-term orbital stability. Our dataset incorporates publicly available radial velocities taken with the ELODIE and CORALIE spectrographs, HARPS, and Keck HIRES as well as previously unpublished HIRES velocities. We first quantitatively assess the validity of the planets thought to orbit GJ 876 by computing the Bayes factors for a variety of different coplanar models using an importance sampling algorithm. We find that a four-planet model is preferred over a three-planet model. Next, we apply a Newtonian MCMC algorithm to perform a Bayesian analysis of the planet masses and orbits using an n-body model in three-dimensional space. Based on the radial velocities alone, we find that a 99% credible interval provides upper limits on the mutual inclinations for the three resonant planets ($Φ_{cb}<6.20^\circ$ for the "c" and "b" pair and $Φ_{be}<28.5^\circ$ for the "b" and "e" pair). Subsequent dynamical integrations of our posterior sample find that the GJ 876 planets must be roughly coplanar ($Φ_{cb}<2.60^\circ$ and $Φ_{be}<7.87^\circ$), suggesting the amount of planet-planet scattering in the system has been low. We investigate the distribution of the respective resonant arguments of each planet pair and find that at least one argument for each planet pair and the Laplace argument librate. The libration amplitudes in our three-dimensional orbital model supports the idea of the outer-three planets having undergone significant past disk migration.

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arXiv2014

The 55 Cancri Planetary System: Fully Self-Consistent N-body Constraints and a Dynamical Analysis

We present an updated study of the planets known to orbit 55 Cancri A using 1,418 high-precision radial velocity observations from four observatories (Lick, Keck, Hobby-Eberly Telescope, Harlan J. Smith Telescope) and transit time/durations for the inner-most planet, 55 Cancri "e" (Winn et al. 2011). We provide the first posterior sample for the masses and orbital parameters based on self-consistent n-body orbital solutions for the 55 Cancri planets, all of which are dynamically stable (for at least $10^8$ years). We apply a GPU version of Radial velocity Using N-body Differential evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RUN DMC; B. Nelson et al. 2014) to perform a Bayesian analysis of the radial velocity and transit observations. Each of the planets in this remarkable system has unique characteristics. Our investigation of high-cadence radial velocities and priors based on space-based photometry yields an updated mass estimate for planet "e" ($8.09\pm0.26$ M$_\oplus$), which affects its density ($5.51\pm^{1.32}_{1.00}$ g cm$^{-3}$) and inferred bulk composition. Dynamical stability dictates that the orbital plane of planet "e" must be aligned to within $60^o$ of the orbital plane of the outer planets (which we assume to be coplanar). The mutual interactions between the planets "b" and "c" may develop an apsidal lock about $180^o$. We find 36-45% of all our model systems librate about the anti-aligned configuration with an amplitude of $51^o\pm^{6^o}_{10^o}$. Other cases showed short-term perturbations in the libration of $\varpi_b-\varpi_c$, circulation, and nodding, but we find the planets are not in a 3:1 mean-motion resonance. A revised orbital period and eccentricity for planet "d" pushes it further toward the closest known Jupiter analog in the exoplanet population.

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arXiv2013

RUN DMC: An efficient, parallel code for analyzing Radial Velocity Observations using N-body Integrations and Differential Evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo

In the 20+ years of Doppler observations of stars, scientists have uncovered a diverse population of extrasolar multi-planet systems. A common technique for characterizing the orbital elements of these planets is Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), using a Keplerian model with random walk proposals and paired with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. For approximately a couple of dozen planetary systems with Doppler observations, there are strong planet-planet interactions due to the system being in or near a mean-motion resonance (MMR). An N-body model is often required to accurately describe these systems. Further computational difficulties arise from exploring a high-dimensional parameter space ($\sim$7 x number of planets) that can have complex parameter correlations. To surmount these challenges, we introduce a differential evolution MCMC (DEMCMC) applied to radial velocity data while incorporating self-consistent N-body integrations. Our Radial velocity Using N-body DEMCMC (RUN DMC) algorithm improves upon the random walk proposal distribution of the traditional MCMC by using an ensemble of Markov chains to adaptively improve the proposal distribution. We describe the methodology behind the algorithm, along with results of tests for accuracy and performance. We find that most algorithm parameters have a modest effect on the rate of convergence. However, the size of the ensemble can have a strong effect on performance. We show that the optimal choice depends on the number of planets in a system, as well as the computer architecture used and the resulting extent of parallelization. While the exact choices of optimal algorithm parameters will inevitably vary due to the details of individual planetary systems, we offer recommendations for choosing the DEMCMC algorithm's algorithmic parameters that result in excellent performance for a wide variety of planetary systems.

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