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Benjamin Patrick Evans

Publications and source records attributed to Benjamin Patrick Evans.

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Entropy-informed Decoding: Adaptive Information-Driven Branching

Large language models (LLMs) achieve remarkable generative performance, yet their output quality is dependent on the decoding strategy. While sampling-based methods (e.g., top-k, nucleus) and search-and-select based methods (e.g., beam search, best-of-n, majority voting) can improve upon greedy decoding, both approaches suffer from limitations: sampling generally commits to a single path, while search often expends excessive computation regardless of task complexity. To address these, we introduce Entropy-informed decoding (EDEN), a plug-and-play, model-agnostic decoding framework that adaptively allocates computation based on the model's own uncertainty, approximating higher-width beam search with fewer expansions. At each generation step, EDEN estimates the entropy of the output token distribution and adjusts the branching factor monotonically with the entropy, expanding more candidates in high-entropy regions and following a greedier path in low-entropy regions, improving token efficiency. Experiments across complex tasks, including mathematical reasoning, code generation, and scientific questions, demonstrate that EDEN consistently improves output quality over existing decoding strategies, achieving better accuracy-expansion trade-offs than fixed-width beam search. By treating next-token selection as a noisy maximisation problem, we prove that branching factors monotone in entropy are guaranteed to find better (i.e. more probable) continuations than any fixed branching factor within the same total expansion budget, and derive explicit regret rates characterising the benefit of the adaptive allocation.

cs.LG

Learning in Stackelberg Mean Field Games: A Non-Asymptotic Analysis

We study policy optimization in Stackelberg mean field games (MFGs), a hierarchical framework for modeling the strategic interaction between a single leader and an infinitely large population of homogeneous followers. The objective can be formulated as a structured bi-level optimization problem, in which the leader needs to learn a policy maximizing its reward, anticipating the response of the followers. Existing methods for solving these (and related) problems often rely on restrictive independence assumptions between the leader's and followers' objectives, use samples inefficiently due to nested-loop algorithm structure, and lack finite-time convergence guarantees. To address these limitations, we propose AC-SMFG, a single-loop actor-critic algorithm that operates on continuously generated Markovian samples. The algorithm alternates between (semi-)gradient updates for the leader, a representative follower, and the mean field, and is simple to implement in practice. We establish the finite-time and finite-sample convergence of the algorithm to a stationary point of the Stackelberg objective. To our knowledge, this is the first Stackelberg MFG algorithm with non-asymptotic convergence guarantees. Our key assumption is a "gradient alignment" condition, which requires that the full policy gradient of the leader can be approximated by a partial component of it, relaxing the existing leader-follower independence assumption. Simulation results in a range of well-established economics environments demonstrate that AC-SMFG outperforms existing multi-agent and MFG learning baselines in policy quality and convergence speed.

cs.LG

Downside Risk-Aware Equilibria for Strategic Decision-Making

Game theory has traditionally had a relatively limited view of risk based on how a player's expected reward is impacted by the uncertainty of the actions of other players. Recently, a new game-theoretic approach provides a more holistic view of risk also considering the reward-variance. However, these variance-based approaches measure variance of the reward on both the upside and downside. In many domains, such as finance, downside risk only is of key importance, as this represents the potential losses associated with a decision. In contrast, large upside "risk" (e.g. profits) are not an issue. To address this restrictive view of risk, we propose a novel solution concept, downside risk aware equilibria (DRAE) based on lower partial moments. DRAE restricts downside risk, while placing no restrictions on upside risk, and additionally, models higher-order risk preferences. We demonstrate the applicability of DRAE on several games, successfully finding equilibria which balance downside risk with expected reward, and prove the existence and optimality of this equilibria.

cs.GT

Modelling bounded rational decision-making through Wasserstein constraints

Modelling bounded rational decision-making through information constrained processing provides a principled approach for representing departures from rationality within a reinforcement learning framework, while still treating decision-making as an optimization process. However, existing approaches are generally based on Entropy, Kullback-Leibler divergence, or Mutual Information. In this work, we highlight issues with these approaches when dealing with ordinal action spaces. Specifically, entropy assumes uniform prior beliefs, missing the impact of a priori biases on decision-makings. KL-Divergence addresses this, however, has no notion of "nearness" of actions, and additionally, has several well known potentially undesirable properties such as the lack of symmetry, and furthermore, requires the distributions to have the same support (e.g. positive probability for all actions). Mutual information is often difficult to estimate. Here, we propose an alternative approach for modeling bounded rational RL agents utilising Wasserstein distances. This approach overcomes the aforementioned issues. Crucially, this approach accounts for the nearness of ordinal actions, modeling "stickiness" in agent decisions and unlikeliness of rapidly switching to far away actions, while also supporting low probability actions, zero-support prior distributions, and is simple to calculate directly.

cs.LG

Decentralized Convergence to Equilibrium Prices in Trading Networks

We propose a decentralized market model in which agents can negotiate bilateral contracts. This builds on a similar, but centralized, model of trading networks introduced by Hatfield et al. in 2013. Prior work has established that fully-substitutable preferences guarantee the existence of competitive equilibria which can be centrally computed. Our motivation comes from the fact that prices in markets such as over-the-counter markets and used car markets arise from decentralized negotiation among agents, which has left open an important question as to whether equilibrium prices can emerge from agent-to-agent bilateral negotiations. We design a best response dynamic intended to capture such negotiations between market participants. We assume fully substitutable preferences for market participants. In this setting, we provide proofs of convergence for sparse markets (covering many real world markets of interest), and experimental results for more general cases, demonstrating that prices indeed reach equilibrium, quickly, via bilateral negotiations. Our best response dynamic, and its convergence behavior, forms an important first step in understanding how decentralized markets reach, and retain, equilibrium.

cs.GT

ADAGE: A generic two-layer framework for adaptive agent based modelling

Agent-based models (ABMs) are valuable for modelling complex, potentially out-of-equilibria scenarios. However, ABMs have long suffered from the Lucas critique, stating that agent behaviour should adapt to environmental changes. Furthermore, the environment itself often adapts to these behavioural changes, creating a complex bi-level adaptation problem. Recent progress integrating multi-agent reinforcement learning into ABMs introduces adaptive agent behaviour, beginning to address the first part of this critique, however, the approaches are still relatively ad hoc, lacking a general formulation, and furthermore, do not tackle the second aspect of simultaneously adapting environmental level characteristics in addition to the agent behaviours. In this work, we develop a generic two-layer framework for ADaptive AGEnt based modelling (ADAGE) for addressing these problems. This framework formalises the bi-level problem as a Stackelberg game with conditional behavioural policies, providing a consolidated framework for adaptive agent-based modelling based on solving a coupled set of non-linear equations. We demonstrate how this generic approach encapsulates several common (previously viewed as distinct) ABM tasks, such as policy design, calibration, scenario generation, and robust behavioural learning under one unified framework. We provide example simulations on multiple complex economic and financial environments, showing the strength of the novel framework under these canonical settings, addressing long-standing critiques of traditional ABMs.

cs.MA

Simulate and Optimise: A two-layer mortgage simulator for designing novel mortgage assistance products

We develop a novel two-layer approach for optimising mortgage relief products through a simulated multi-agent mortgage environment. While the approach is generic, here the environment is calibrated to the US mortgage market based on publicly available census data and regulatory guidelines. Through the simulation layer, we assess the resilience of households to exogenous income shocks, while the optimisation layer explores strategies to improve the robustness of households to these shocks by making novel mortgage assistance products available to households. Households in the simulation are adaptive, learning to make mortgage-related decisions (such as product enrolment or strategic foreclosures) that maximize their utility, balancing their available liquidity and equity. We show how this novel two-layer simulation approach can successfully design novel mortgage assistance products to improve household resilience to exogenous shocks, and balance the costs of providing such products through post-hoc analysis. Previously, such analysis could only be conducted through expensive pilot studies involving real participants, demonstrating the benefit of the approach for designing and evaluating financial products.

cs.MA

A Heterogeneous Agent Model of Mortgage Servicing: An Income-based Relief Analysis

Mortgages account for the largest portion of household debt in the United States, totaling around \$12 trillion nationwide. In times of financial hardship, alleviating mortgage burdens is essential for supporting affected households. The mortgage servicing industry plays a vital role in offering this assistance, yet there has been limited research modelling the complex relationship between households and servicers. To bridge this gap, we developed an agent-based model that explores household behavior and the effectiveness of relief measures during financial distress. Our model represents households as adaptive learning agents with realistic financial attributes. These households experience exogenous income shocks, which may influence their ability to make mortgage payments. Mortgage servicers provide relief options to these households, who then choose the most suitable relief based on their unique financial circumstances and individual preferences. We analyze the impact of various external shocks and the success of different mortgage relief strategies on specific borrower subgroups. Through this analysis, we show that our model can not only replicate real-world mortgage studies but also act as a tool for conducting a broad range of what-if scenario analyses. Our approach offers fine-grained insights that can inform the development of more effective and inclusive mortgage relief solutions.

cs.MA

Learning and Calibrating Heterogeneous Bounded Rational Market Behaviour with Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Agent-based models (ABMs) have shown promise for modelling various real world phenomena incompatible with traditional equilibrium analysis. However, a critical concern is the manual definition of behavioural rules in ABMs. Recent developments in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) offer a way to address this issue from an optimisation perspective, where agents strive to maximise their utility, eliminating the need for manual rule specification. This learning-focused approach aligns with established economic and financial models through the use of rational utility-maximising agents. However, this representation departs from the fundamental motivation for ABMs: that realistic dynamics emerging from bounded rationality and agent heterogeneity can be modelled. To resolve this apparent disparity between the two approaches, we propose a novel technique for representing heterogeneous processing-constrained agents within a MARL framework. The proposed approach treats agents as constrained optimisers with varying degrees of strategic skills, permitting departure from strict utility maximisation. Behaviour is learnt through repeated simulations with policy gradients to adjust action likelihoods. To allow efficient computation, we use parameterised shared policy learning with distributions of agent skill levels. Shared policy learning avoids the need for agents to learn individual policies yet still enables a spectrum of bounded rational behaviours. We validate our model's effectiveness using real-world data on a range of canonical $n$-agent settings, demonstrating significantly improved predictive capability.

cs.MA

Bounded rationality for relaxing best response and mutual consistency: The Quantal Hierarchy model of decision-making

While game theory has been transformative for decision-making, the assumptions made can be overly restrictive in certain instances. In this work, we investigate some of the underlying assumptions of rationality, such as mutual consistency and best response, and consider ways to relax these assumptions using concepts from level-$k$ reasoning and quantal response equilibrium (QRE) respectively. Specifically, we propose an information-theoretic two-parameter model called the Quantal Hierarchy model, which can relax both mutual consistency and best response while still approximating level-$k$, QRE, or typical Nash equilibrium behaviour in the limiting cases. The model is based on a recursive form of the variational free energy principle, representing higher-order reasoning as (pseudo) sequential decision-making in extensive-form game tree. This representation enables us to treat simultaneous games in a similar manner to sequential games, where reasoning resources deplete throughout the game-tree. Bounds in player processing abilities are captured as information costs, where future branches of reasoning are discounted, implying a hierarchy of players where lower-level players have fewer processing resources. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the Quantal Hierarchy model in several canonical economic games, {both simultaneous and sequential}, using out-of-sample modelling.

cs.GT

Bounded strategic reasoning explains crisis emergence in multi-agent market games

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), based on rational expectations and market equilibrium, is the dominant perspective for modelling economic markets. However, the most notable critique of the EMH is the inability to model periods of out-of-equilibrium behaviour in the absence of any significant external news. When such dynamics emerge endogenously, the traditional economic frameworks provide no explanation for such behaviour and the deviation from equilibrium. This work offers an alternate perspective explaining the endogenous emergence of punctuated out-of-equilibrium dynamics based on bounded rational agents. In a concise market entrance game, we show how boundedly rational strategic reasoning can lead to endogenously emerging crises, exhibiting fat tails in "returns". We also show how other common stylised facts of economic markets, such as clustered volatility, can be explained due to agent diversity (or lack thereof) and the varying learning updates across the agents. This work explains various stylised facts and crisis emergence in economic markets, in the absence of any external news, based purely on agent interactions and bounded rational reasoning.

cs.MA

A maximum entropy model of bounded rational decision-making with prior beliefs and market feedback

Bounded rationality is an important consideration stemming from the fact that agents often have limits on their processing abilities, making the assumption of perfect rationality inapplicable to many real tasks. We propose an information-theoretic approach to the inference of agent decisions under Smithian competition. The model explicitly captures the boundedness of agents (limited in their information-processing capacity) as the cost of information acquisition for expanding their prior beliefs. The expansion is measured as the Kullblack-Leibler divergence between posterior decisions and prior beliefs. When information acquisition is free, the homo economicus agent is recovered, while in cases when information acquisition becomes costly, agents instead revert to their prior beliefs. The maximum entropy principle is used to infer least-biased decisions based upon the notion of Smithian competition formalised within the Quantal Response Statistical Equilibrium framework. The incorporation of prior beliefs into such a framework allowed us to systematically explore the effects of prior beliefs on decision-making in the presence of market feedback, as well as importantly adding a temporal interpretation to the framework. We verified the proposed model using Australian housing market data, showing how the incorporation of prior knowledge alters the resulting agent decisions. Specifically, it allowed for the separation of past beliefs and utility maximisation behaviour of the agent as well as the analysis into the evolution of agent beliefs.

cs.IT

The impact of social influence in Australian real-estate: market forecasting with a spatial agent-based model

Housing markets are inherently spatial, yet many existing models fail to capture this spatial dimension. Here we introduce a new graph-based approach for incorporating a spatial component in a large-scale urban housing agent-based model (ABM). The model explicitly captures several social and economic factors that influence the agents' decision-making behaviour (such as fear of missing out, their trend following aptitude, and the strength of their submarket outreach), and interprets these factors in spatial terms. The proposed model is calibrated and validated with the housing market data for the Greater Sydney region. The ABM simulation results not only include predictions for the overall market, but also produce area-specific forecasting at the level of local government areas within Sydney as arising from individual buy and sell decisions. In addition, the simulation results elucidate agent preferences in submarkets, highlighting differences in agent behaviour, for example, between first-time home buyers and investors, and between both local and overseas investors.

q-fin.CP

An Adaptive and Near Parameter-free Evolutionary Computation Approach Towards True Automation in AutoML

A common claim of evolutionary computation methods is that they can achieve good results without the need for human intervention. However, one criticism of this is that there are still hyperparameters which must be tuned in order to achieve good performance. In this work, we propose a near "parameter-free" genetic programming approach, which adapts the hyperparameter values throughout evolution without ever needing to be specified manually. We apply this to the area of automated machine learning (by extending TPOT), to produce pipelines which can effectively be claimed to be free from human input, and show that the results are competitive with existing state-of-the-art which use hand-selected hyperparameter values. Pipelines begin with a randomly chosen estimator and evolve to competitive pipelines automatically. This work moves towards a truly automatic approach to AutoML.

cs.NE

Improving generalisation of AutoML systems with dynamic fitness evaluations

A common problem machine learning developers are faced with is overfitting, that is, fitting a pipeline too closely to the training data that the performance degrades for unseen data. Automated machine learning aims to free (or at least ease) the developer from the burden of pipeline creation, but this overfitting problem can persist. In fact, this can become more of a problem as we look to iteratively optimise the performance of an internal cross-validation (most often \textit{k}-fold). While this internal cross-validation hopes to reduce this overfitting, we show we can still risk overfitting to the particular folds used. In this work, we aim to remedy this problem by introducing dynamic fitness evaluations which approximate repeated \textit{k}-fold cross-validation, at little extra cost over single \textit{k}-fold, and far lower cost than typical repeated \textit{k}-fold. The results show that when time equated, the proposed fitness function results in significant improvement over the current state-of-the-art baseline method which uses an internal single \textit{k}-fold. Furthermore, the proposed extension is very simple to implement on top of existing evolutionary computation methods, and can provide essentially a free boost in generalisation/testing performance.

cs.LG

Genetic Programming and Gradient Descent: A Memetic Approach to Binary Image Classification

Image classification is an essential task in computer vision, which aims to categorise a set of images into different groups based on some visual criteria. Existing methods, such as convolutional neural networks, have been successfully utilised to perform image classification. However, such methods often require human intervention to design a model. Furthermore, such models are difficult to interpret and it is challenging to analyse the patterns of different classes. This paper presents a hybrid (memetic) approach combining genetic programming (GP) and Gradient-based optimisation for image classification to overcome the limitations mentioned. The performance of the proposed method is compared to a baseline version (without local search) on four binary classification image datasets to provide an insight into the usefulness of local search mechanisms for enhancing the performance of GP.

cs.NE