arXiv subjects

Bert Zwart

Publications and source records attributed to Bert Zwart.

89 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

Separation of timescales in a two-layered network

We investigate a computer network consisting of two layers occurring in, for example, application servers. The first layer incorporates the arrival of jobs at a network of multi-server nodes, which we model as a many-server Jackson network. At the second layer, active servers at these nodes act now as customers who are served by a common CPU. Our main result shows a separation of time scales in heavy traffic: the main source of randomness occurs at the (aggregate) CPU layer; the interactions between different types of nodes at the other layer is shown to converge to a fixed point at a faster time scale; this also yields a state-space collapse property. Apart from these fundamental insights, we also obtain an explicit approximation for the joint law of the number of jobs in the system, which is provably accurate for heavily loaded systems and performs numerically well for moderately loaded systems. The obtained results for the model under consideration can be applied to thread-pool dimensioning in application servers, while the technique seems applicable to other layered systems too.

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arXiv2014

Corrected phase-type approximations of heavy-tailed risk models using perturbation analysis

Numerical evaluation of performance measures in heavy-tailed risk models is an important and challenging problem. In this paper, we construct very accurate approximations of such performance measures that provide small absolute and relative errors. Motivated by statistical analysis, we assume that the claim sizes are a mixture of a phase-type and a heavy-tailed distribution and with the aid of perturbation analysis we derive a series expansion for the performance measure under consideration. Our proposed approximations consist of the first two terms of this series expansion, where the first term is a phase-type approximation of our measure. We refer to our approximations collectively as corrected phase-type approximations. We show that the corrected phase-type approximations exhibit a nice behavior both in finite and infinite time horizon, and we check their accuracy through numerical experiments.

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arXiv2014

On the accuracy of phase-type approximations of heavy-tailed risk models

Numerical evaluation of ruin probabilities in the classical risk model is an important problem. If claim sizes are heavy-tailed, then such evaluations are challenging. To overcome this, an attractive way is to approximate the claim sizes with a phase-type distribution. What is not clear though is how many phases are enough in order to achieve a specific accuracy in the approximation of the ruin probability. The goals of this paper are to investigate the number of phases required so that we can achieve a pre-specified accuracy for the ruin probability and to provide error bounds. Also, in the special case of a completely monotone claim size distribution we develop an algorithm to estimate the ruin probability by approximating the excess claim size distribution with a hyperexponential one. Finally, we compare our approximation with the heavy traffic and heavy tail approximations.

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arXiv2014

Time-dependent behaviour of an alternating service queue

We consider a model describing the waiting time of a server alternating between two service points. This model is described by a Lindley-type equation. We are interested in the time-dependent behaviour of this system and derive explicit expressions for its time-dependent waiting-time distribution, the correlation between waiting times, and the distribution of the cycle length. Since our model is closely related to Lindley's recursion, we compare our results to those derived for Lindley's recursion.

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arXiv2013

Scaling limits via excursion theory: Interplay between Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes and processor-sharing queues

We study the convergence of the $M/G/1$ processor-sharing, queue length process in the heavy traffic regime, in the finite variance case. To do so, we combine results pertaining to Lévy processes, branching processes and queuing theory. These results yield the convergence of long excursions of the queue length processes, toward excursions obtained from those of some reflected Brownian motion with drift, after taking the image of their local time process by the Lamperti transformation. We also show, via excursion theoretic arguments, that this entails the convergence of the entire processes to some (other) reflected Brownian motion with drift. Along the way, we prove various invariance principles for homogeneous, binary Crump-Mode-Jagers processes. In the last section we discuss potential implications of the state space collapse property, well known in the queuing literature, to branching processes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

Fluid Approximation of a Call Center Model with Redials and Reconnects

In many call centers, callers may call multiple times. Some of the calls are re-attempts after abandonments (redials), and some are re-attempts after connected calls (reconnects). The combination of redials and reconnects has not been considered when making staffing decisions, while ignoring them will inevitably lead to under- or overestimation of call volumes, which results in improper and hence costly staffing decisions. Motivated by this, in this paper we study call centers where customers can abandon, and abandoned customers may redial, and when a customer finishes his conversation with an agent, he may reconnect. We use a fluid model to derive first order approximations for the number of customers in the redial and reconnect orbits in the heavy traffic. We show that the fluid limit of such a model is the unique solution to a system of three differential equations. Furthermore, we use the fluid limit to calculate the expected total arrival rate, which is then given as an input to the Erlang A model for the purpose of calculating service levels and abandonment rates. The performance of such a procedure is validated in the case of single intervals as well as multiple intervals with changing parameters.

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arXiv2013

Fluid Limits for Bandwidth-Sharing Networks with Rate Constraints

Bandwidth-sharing networks as introduced by Massoulié & Roberts (1998) model the dynamic interaction among an evolving population of elastic flows competing for several links. With policies based on optimization procedures, such models are of interest both from a Queueing Theory and Operations Research perspective. In the present paper, we focus on bandwidth-sharing networks with capacities and arrival rates of a large order of magnitude compared to transfer rates of individual flows. This regime is standard in practice. In particular, we extend previous work by Reed & Zwart (2010) on fluid approximations for such networks: we allow interarrival times, flow sizes and patient times (i.e. abandonment times measured from the arrival epochs) to be generally distributed, rather than exponentially distributed. We also develop polynomial-time computable fixed-point approximations for stationary distributions of bandwidth-sharing networks, and suggest new techniques for deriving these types of results.

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arXiv2013

Random Fluid Limit of an Overloaded Polling Model

In the present paper, we study the evolution of an overloaded cyclic polling model that starts empty. Exploiting a connection with multitype branching processes, we derive fluid asymptotics for the joint queue length process. Under passage to the fluid dynamics, the server switches between the queues infinitely many times in any finite time interval causing frequent oscillatory behavior of the fluid limit in the neighborhood of zero. Moreover, the fluid limit is random. Additionally, we suggest a method that establishes finiteness of moments of the busy period in an M/G/1 queue.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Fluid Limits for an ALOHA-type Model with Impatient Customers

Random multiple-access protocols of type ALOHA are used to regulate networks with a star configuration where client nodes talk to the hub node at the same frequency (finding a wide range of applications among telecommunication systems, including mobile telephone networks and WiFi networks). Such protocols control who talks at what time sharing the common idea "try to send your data and, if your message collides with another transmission, try resending later". In the present paper, we consider a time-slotted ALOHA model where users are allowed to renege before transmission completion. We focus on the scenario that leads to overload in the absence of impatience. Under mild assumptions, we show that the fluid (or law-of-large-numbers) limit of the system workload coincides a.s. with the unique solution to a certain integral equation. We also demonstrate that the fluid limits for distinct initial conditions converge to the same value as time tends to infinity.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Efficient Rare-event Simulation for Perpetuities

We consider perpetuities of the form D = B_1 exp(Y_1) + B_2 exp(Y_1+Y_2) + ... where the Y_j's and B_j's might be i.i.d. or jointly driven by a suitable Markov chain. We assume that the Y_j's satisfy the so-called Cramer condition with associated root theta_{ast} in (0,infty) and that the tails of the B_j's are appropriately behaved so that D is regularly varying with index theta_{ast}. We illustrate by means of an example that the natural state-independent importance sampling estimator obtained by exponentially tilting the Y_j's according to theta_{ast} fails to provide an efficient estimator (in the sense of appropriately controlling the relative mean squared error as the tail probability of interest gets smaller). Then, we construct estimators based on state-dependent importance sampling that are rigorously shown to be efficient.

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arXiv2011

A Lévy input fluid queue with input and workload regulation

We consider a queuing model with the workload evolving between consecutive i.i.d.\ exponential timers $\{e_q^{(i)}\}_{i=1,2,...}$ according to a spectrally positive Lévy process $Y_i(t)$ that is reflected at zero, and where the environment $i$ equals 0 or 1. When the exponential clock $e_q^{(i)}$ ends, the workload, as well as the Lévy input process, are modified; this modification may depend on the current value of the workload, the maximum and the minimum workload observed during the previous cycle, and the environment $i$ of the Lévy input process itself during the previous cycle. We analyse the steady-state workload distribution for this model. The main theme of the analysis is the systematic application of non-trivial functionals, derived within the framework of fluctuation theory of Lévy processes, to workload and queuing models.

math.PR↗

arXiv2011

Diffusion limits of limited processor sharing queues

We consider a processor sharing queue where the number of jobs served at any time is limited to $K$, with the excess jobs waiting in a buffer. We use random counting measures on the positive axis to model this system. The limit of this measure-valued process is obtained under diffusion scaling and heavy traffic conditions. As a consequence, the limit of the system size process is proved to be a piece-wise reflected Brownian motion.

math.PR↗

arXiv2011

Convergence of the all-time supremum of a Lévy process in the heavy-traffic regime

In this paper we derive a technique of obtaining limit theorems for suprema of Lévy processes from their random walk counterparts. For each $a>0$, let $\{Y^{(a)}_n:n\ge 1\}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables and $\{X^{(a)}_t:t\ge 0\}$ be a Lévy processes such that $X_1^{(a)}\stackrel{d}{=} Y_1^{(a)}$, $\mathbb E X_1^{(a)}<0$ and $\mathbb E X_1^{(a)}\uparrow0$ as $a\downarrow0$. Let $S^{(a)}_n=\sum_{k=1}^n Y^{(a)}_k$. Then, under some mild assumptions, $Δ(a)\max_{n\ge 0} S_n^{(a)}\stackrel{d}{\to} R\iffΔ(a)\sup_{t\ge 0} X^{(a)}_t\stackrel{d}{\to} R$, for some random variable $R$ and some function $Δ(\cdot)$. We utilize this result to present a number of limit theorems for suprema of Lévy processes in the heavy-traffic regime.

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arXiv2006

Processor Sharing Queues with Impatience

We investigate a processor sharing queue with renewal arrivals and generally distributed service times. Impatient jobs may abandon the queue, or renege, before completing service. The corresponding stochastic processes are represented by measure valued Markov processes on R^2\_+. A scaling procedure that gives rise to a fluid model with a nontrivial, yet tractable steady state behavior, is presented. This fluid model model captures many essential features of the underlying stochastic model, and it is used to analyze the impact of impatience in processor sharing queues.

math.PR↗

arXiv2005

A large-deviations analysis of the GI/GI/1 SRPT queue

We consider a GI/GI/1 queue with the shortest remaining processing time discipline (SRPT) and light-tailed service times. Our interest is focused on the tail behavior of the sojourn-time distribution. We obtain a general expression for its large-deviations decay rate. The value of this decay rate critically depends on whether there is mass in the endpoint of the service-time distribution or not. An auxiliary priority queue, for which we obtain some new results, plays an important role in our analysis. We apply our SRPT-results to compare SRPT with FIFO from a large-deviations point of view.

math.PR↗

arXiv2005

Subexponential asymptotics of hybrid fluid and ruin models

We investigate the tail asymptotics of the supremum of X(t)+Y(t)-ct, where X={X(t),t\geq 0} and Y={Y(t),t\geq 0} are two independent stochastic processes. We assume that the process Y has subexponential characteristics and that the process X is more regular in a certain sense than Y. A key issue examined in earlier studies is under what conditions the process X contributes to large values of the supremum only through its average behavior. The present paper studies various scenarios where the latter is not the case, and the process X shows some form of ``atypical'' behavior as well. In particular, we consider a fluid model fed by a Gaussian process X and an (integrated) On-Off process Y. We show that, depending on the model parameters, the Gaussian process may contribute to the tail asymptotics by its moderate deviations, large deviations, or oscillatory behavior.

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arXiv2004

Exact asymptotics for fluid queues fed by multiple heavy-tailed on-off flows

We consider a fluid queue fed by multiple On-Off flows with heavy-tailed (regularly varying) On periods. Under fairly mild assumptions, we prove that the workload distribution is asymptotically equivalent to that in a reduced system. The reduced system consists of a ``dominant'' subset of the flows, with the original service rate subtracted by the mean rate of the other flows. We describe how a dominant set may be determined from a simple knapsack formulation. The dominant set consists of a ``minimally critical'' set of On-Off flows with regularly varying On periods. In case the dominant set contains just a single On-Off flow, the exact asymptotics for the reduced system follow from known results. For the case of several On-Off flows, we exploit a powerful intuitive argument to obtain the exact asymptotics. Combined with the reduced-load equivalence, the results for the reduced system provide a characterization of the tail of the workload distribution for a wide range of traffic scenarios.

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