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Bert de Vries

Publications and source records attributed to Bert de Vries.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Spike-based Belief Propagation in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

This paper presents a Bayesian control framework that integrates spike-based dynamics with probabilistic inference for adaptive control. Bayesian inference is widely regarded as a core computational principle of brain function, providing a normative framework for perception, decision-making, and learning under uncertainty. By combining a biologically inspired spiking neural model with Bayesian inference principles, we propose a brain-like control algorithm capable of operating in uncertain environments. We use the mountain car parking problem as a benchmark with non-linear dynamics. Our results demonstrate that the proposed controller can successfully update states in real time and generate goal-directed action plans through spike-driven dynamics. The results highlight the proposed model's potential as a bridge between computational neuroscience and probabilistic control theory.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Sophisticated Policies from Epistemic Priors

Sophisticated Inference is a variant of active inference often associated with recursive belief modeling and tree search. We argue that its central computational role is simpler: within a planning horizon, it makes active inference closed-loop by allowing future actions to depend on future states and observations. This closed-loop structure can be represented in the epistemic-prior variational free energy framework. Epistemic priors supply the active-inference objective, while a joint posterior over future states and actions supplies the state-contingent control structure. We evaluate this decomposition in the Reactivity Maze, a stochastic benchmark designed to separate epistemic incentive from inner-horizon closed-loop control. The comparison includes three variational objectives with the same state-action posterior family, an action-state factorized active inference objective, Sophisticated Inference, and standard Expected Free Energy planning. The results show that neither ingredient is sufficient on its own. Methods without an epistemic component do not seek information, while methods that prevent future actions from depending on future states cannot turn information into reliable goal-reaching. By contrast, both Sophisticated Inference and full-joint epistemic-prior active inference solve the environment by combining epistemic drive with closed-loop inference. These results show that the advantage associated with Sophisticated Inference need not be specific to tree search itself. It arises from the closed-loop form of active inference, and this form can be represented in epistemic-prior variational inference when the posterior keeps future actions dependent on future states.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

What Type of Inference is Active Inference?

Active inference casts decision-making as inference, with the Expected Free Energy (EFE) unifying goal-directed and information-seeking behavior. Recent work showed that EFE minimization can be written as Variational Free Energy (VFE) minimization on a generative model augmented with epistemic priors. We prove that the VFE of the augmented model can be rewritten as the VFE of the predictive model plus explicit entropy-correction terms, making the EFE contribution transparent. We then show that proper EFE-based planning requires combining these epistemic corrections with a planning correction that turns marginal inference into policy optimization, yielding a full variational characterization of EFE-based planning. This clarifies which corrections are needed for cross-entropy planning and for full EFE-based planning. The same entropy-corrected formulation leads to a detailed message-passing scheme for EFE-based planning together with simpler ablations. Experiments on three grid-world environments show that full EFE-based planning outperforms ablations that omit either the planning correction or the epistemic corrections.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Reformulation Invariance and the Axiomatic Foundations of Inference

Maximum entropy, Bayesian updating, and exponential-family estimation are all instances of a common inference principle: selecting the measure or distribution that minimizes a divergence subject to the available constraints. Which divergence to use is usually decided by analytic convenience, by empirical performance, or by a set of axioms chosen to single it out, leaving open a basic question: why one divergence and not another? We answer it from a single requirement: an inference method should return the same answer whenever the same problem is presented in an equivalent form, for instance, after simply renaming its parts. This requirement alone forces inference to be the minimisation of a classical divergence, and each further reformulation it must respect tightens the admissible family one notch, narrowing the broad f-divergences to the α-divergences and finally to the single Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Mathematically, inference is recast from minimising a numerical functional to selecting a least element under a preorder on positive measures, a divergence being merely one numerical scale that reproduces that preorder. The reformulations are the morphisms of a category of inference problems, and the invariance requirement says the inference operator is a covariant functor into the category of statistical models of Cencov, mirroring his characterisation of the Fisher metric. The representation is proved on finite spaces and lifted to general measurable spaces by an elementary closure, covering discrete and continuous spaces alike. Earlier axiomatisations, such as those of Shore-Johnson and Csiszar, postulate their consistency axioms directly and only on finite alphabets; here the axioms follow from reformulation invariance alone.

math.ST↗
arXiv2026

Expected Free Energy-based Planning as Variational Inference

Planning under uncertainty requires agents to balance goal achievement with information gathering. Active inference addresses this through the Expected Free Energy (EFE), a cost function that unifies instrumental and epistemic objectives. However, existing EFE-based methods typically employ specialized optimization procedures that are difficult to extend or analyze. In this paper, we show that EFE-based planning can be formulated as Variational Free Energy minimization on a generative model augmented with epistemic priors. Our main result demonstrates that minimizing a Variational Free Energy functional with appropriately chosen priors yields a decomposition into expected plan costs (the EFE) plus a complexity term. This formulation reinforces theoretical consistency with the Free Energy Principle by casting planning as the same inferential process that governs perception and learning. We validate our approach on three environments of increasing complexity: a deterministic T-maze, a stochastic Reactivity Maze, and a partially observable MiniGrid DoorKey-8x8 environment. The experiments demonstrate that the epistemic priors induce information-seeking behavior, that the variational formulation yields policy-based inference outperforming plan-based methods under stochastic transitions, and that temporal factorization enables scalability to environments where existing tabular active inference methods cannot operate.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Composing Non-Conjugate Factor Graphs with Closed-Form Variational Inference

Stacking probabilistic building blocks into deeper architectures typically breaks closed-form inference. We show that closed-form inference can be preserved. We identify five factor-graph primitives: a bilinear factor, an exponential link, a Gamma prior, a Gaussian likelihood, and an equality node, and prove that any model composed from them admits closed-form variational message passing. The construction works because each primitive preserves a small set of message families: under mean-field factorization, messages on Gaussian variables remain Gaussian and messages on precision variables remain Gamma, while the only non-conjugate interface, the exponential link, remains tractable through the Gaussian moment-generating function and the sufficient statistics of the Gamma family. We demonstrate composition at increasing depth, from static ensembles through input-dependent gating to split-branch routing, and show that stacking routing layers encodes arbitrary decision trees, establishing universal function approximation with closed-form inference. Applied to ensemble time-series forecasting, the framework yields a Bayesian mixture of experts in which gating functions are inferred rather than learned, providing calibrated uncertainty over expert selection across five benchmark datasets.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Active Inference for Physical AI Agents -- An Engineering Perspective

Physical AI agents, such as robots and other embodied systems operating under tight and fluctuating resource constraints, remain far less capable than biological agents in open-ended real-world environments. This paper argues that Active Inference (AIF), grounded in the Free Energy Principle, offers a principled foundation for closing that gap. We develop this argument from first principles, following a chain from probability theory through Bayesian machine learning and variational inference to active inference and reactive message passing. From the FEP perspective, systems that maintain their structural and functional integrity over time can, under suitable assumptions, be described as minimizing variational free energy (VFE), and AIF operationalizes this by unifying perception, learning, planning, and control within a single computational objective. We show that VFE minimization is naturally realized by reactive message passing on factor graphs, where inference emerges from local, parallel computations. This realization is well matched to the constraints of physical operation, including hard deadlines, asynchronous data, fluctuating power budgets, and changing environments. Because reactive message passing is event-driven, interruptible, and locally adaptable, performance degrades gracefully under reduced resources while model structure can adjust online. We further show that, under suitable coupling and coarse-graining conditions, coupled AIF agents can be described as higher-level AIF agents, yielding a homogeneous architecture based on the same message-passing primitive across scales. Our contribution is not empirical benchmarking, but a clear theoretical and architectural case for the engineering community.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

A Message Passing Realization of Expected Free Energy Minimization

We present a message passing approach to Expected Free Energy (EFE) minimization on factor graphs, based on the theory introduced in arXiv:2504.14898. By reformulating EFE minimization as Variational Free Energy minimization with epistemic priors, we transform a combinatorial search problem into a tractable inference problem solvable through standard variational techniques. Applying our message passing method to factorized state-space models enables efficient policy inference. We evaluate our method on environments with epistemic uncertainty: a stochastic gridworld and a partially observable Minigrid task. Agents using our approach consistently outperform conventional KL-control agents on these tasks, showing more robust planning and efficient exploration under uncertainty. In the stochastic gridworld environment, EFE-minimizing agents avoid risky paths, while in the partially observable minigrid setting, they conduct more systematic information-seeking. This approach bridges active inference theory with practical implementations, providing empirical evidence for the efficiency of epistemic priors in artificial agents.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

Spike-Timing-Dependent Plasticity for Bernoulli Message Passing

Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for understanding brain function, while neural activity in the brain is inherently spike-based. This paper bridges these two perspectives by designing spiking neural networks that simulate Bayesian inference through message passing for Bernoulli messages. To train the networks, we employ spike-timing-dependent plasticity, a biologically plausible mechanism for synaptic plasticity which is based on the Hebbian rule. Our results demonstrate that the network's performance closely matches the true numerical solution. We further demonstrate the versatility of our approach by implementing a factor graph example from coding theory, illustrating signal transmission over an unreliable channel.

q-bio.NC↗
arXiv2025

A Spiking Neural Network Implementation of Gaussian Belief Propagation

Bayesian inference offers a principled account of information processing in natural agents. However, it remains an open question how neural mechanisms perform their abstract operations. We investigate a hypothesis where a distributed form of Bayesian inference, namely message passing on factor graphs, is performed by a simulated network of leaky-integrate-and-fire neurons. Specifically, we perform Gaussian belief propagation by encoding messages that come into factor nodes as spike-based signals, propagating these signals through a spiking neural network (SNN) and decoding the spike-based signal back to an outgoing message. Three core linear operations, equality (branching), addition, and multiplication, are realized in networks of leaky integrate-and-fire models. Validation against the standard sum-product algorithm shows accurate message updates, while applications to Kalman filtering and Bayesian linear regression demonstrate the framework's potential for both static and dynamic inference tasks. Our results provide a step toward biologically grounded, neuromorphic implementations of probabilistic reasoning.

cs.NE↗
arXiv2025

Expected Free Energy-based Planning as Variational Inference

We address the problem of planning under uncertainty, where an agent must choose actions that not only achieve desired outcomes but also reduce uncertainty. Traditional methods often treat exploration and exploitation as separate objectives, lacking a unified inferential foundation. Active inference, grounded in the Free Energy Principle, provides such a foundation by minimizing Expected Free Energy (EFE), a cost function that combines utility with epistemic drives, such as ambiguity resolution and novelty seeking. However, the computational burden of EFE minimization had remained a significant obstacle to its scalability. In this paper, we show that EFE-based planning arises naturally from minimizing a variational free energy functional on a generative model augmented with preference and epistemic priors. This result reinforces theoretical consistency with the Free Energy Principle by casting planning under uncertainty itself as a form of variational inference. Our formulation yields policies that jointly support goal achievement and information gain, while incorporating a complexity term that accounts for bounded computational resources. This unifying framework connects and extends existing methods, enabling scalable, resource-aware implementations of active inference agents.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2024

Improved Depth Estimation of Bayesian Neural Networks

This paper proposes improvements over earlier work by Nazareth and Blei (2022) for estimating the depth of Bayesian neural networks. Here, we propose a discrete truncated normal distribution over the network depth to independently learn its mean and variance. Posterior distributions are inferred by minimizing the variational free energy, which balances the model complexity and accuracy. Our method improves test accuracy on the spiral data set and reduces the variance in posterior depth estimates.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Realising Synthetic Active Inference Agents, Part II: Variational Message Updates

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) describes (biological) agents as minimising a variational Free Energy (FE) with respect to a generative model of their environment. Active Inference (AIF) is a corollary of the FEP that describes how agents explore and exploit their environment by minimising an expected FE objective. In two related papers, we describe a scalable, epistemic approach to synthetic AIF, by message passing on free-form Forney-style Factor Graphs (FFGs). A companion paper (part I) introduces a Constrained FFG (CFFG) notation that visually represents (generalised) FE objectives for AIF. The current paper (part II) derives message passing algorithms that minimise (generalised) FE objectives on a CFFG by variational calculus. A comparison between simulated Bethe and generalised FE agents illustrates how the message passing approach to synthetic AIF induces epistemic behaviour on a T-maze navigation task. Extension of the T-maze simulation to 1) learning goal statistics, and 2) a multi-agent bargaining setting, illustrate how this approach encourages reuse of nodes and updates in alternative settings. With a full message passing account of synthetic AIF agents, it becomes possible to derive and reuse message updates across models and move closer to industrial applications of synthetic AIF.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2024

Reactive Environments for Active Inference Agents with RxEnvironments.jl

Active Inference is a framework that emphasizes the interaction between agents and their environment. While the framework has seen significant advancements in the development of agents, the environmental models are often borrowed from reinforcement learning problems, which may not fully capture the complexity of multi-agent interactions or allow complex, conditional communication. This paper introduces Reactive Environments, a comprehensive paradigm that facilitates complex multi-agent communication. In this paradigm, both agents and environments are defined as entities encapsulated by boundaries with interfaces. This setup facilitates a robust framework for communication in nonequilibrium-Steady-State systems, allowing for complex interactions and information exchange. We present a Julia package RxEnvironments.jl, which is a specific implementation of Reactive Environments, where we utilize a Reactive Programming style for efficient implementation. The flexibility of this paradigm is demonstrated through its application to several complex, multi-agent environments. These case studies highlight the potential of Reactive Environments in modeling sophisticated systems of interacting agents.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2023

On Preference Learning Based on Sequential Bayesian Optimization with Pairwise Comparison

User preference learning is generally a hard problem. Individual preferences are typically unknown even to users themselves, while the space of choices is infinite. Here we study user preference learning from information-theoretic perspective. We model preference learning as a system with two interacting sub-systems, one representing a user with his/her preferences and another one representing an agent that has to learn these preferences. The user with his/her behaviour is modeled by a parametric preference function. To efficiently learn the preferences and reduce search space quickly, we propose the agent that interacts with the user to collect the most informative data for learning. The agent presents two proposals to the user for evaluation, and the user rates them based on his/her preference function. We show that the optimum agent strategy for data collection and preference learning is a result of maximin optimization of the normalized weighted Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between true and agent-assigned predictive user response distributions. The resulting value of KL-divergence, which we also call remaining system uncertainty (RSU), provides an efficient performance metric in the absence of the ground truth. This metric characterises how well the agent can predict user and, thus, the quality of the underlying learned user (preference) model. Our proposed agent comprises sequential mechanisms for user model inference and proposal generation. To infer the user model (preference function), Bayesian approximate inference is used in the agent. The data collection strategy is to generate proposals, responses to which help resolving uncertainty associated with prediction of the user responses the most. The efficiency of our approach is validated by numerical simulations. Also a real-life example of preference learning application is provided.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Principled Pruning of Bayesian Neural Networks through Variational Free Energy Minimization

Bayesian model reduction provides an efficient approach for comparing the performance of all nested sub-models of a model, without re-evaluating any of these sub-models. Until now, Bayesian model reduction has been applied mainly in the computational neuroscience community on simple models. In this paper, we formulate and apply Bayesian model reduction to perform principled pruning of Bayesian neural networks, based on variational free energy minimization. Direct application of Bayesian model reduction, however, gives rise to approximation errors. Therefore, a novel iterative pruning algorithm is presented to alleviate the problems arising with naive Bayesian model reduction, as supported experimentally on the publicly available UCI datasets for different inference algorithms. This novel parameter pruning scheme solves the shortcomings of current state-of-the-art pruning methods that are used by the signal processing community. The proposed approach has a clear stopping criterion and minimizes the same objective that is used during training. Next to these benefits, our experiments indicate better model performance in comparison to state-of-the-art pruning schemes.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Realising Synthetic Active Inference Agents, Part I: Epistemic Objectives and Graphical Specification Language

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) is a theoretical framework for describing how (intelligent) systems self-organise into coherent, stable structures by minimising a free energy functional. Active Inference (AIF) is a corollary of the FEP that specifically details how systems that are able to plan for the future (agents) function by minimising particular free energy functionals that incorporate information seeking components. This paper is the first in a series of two where we derive a synthetic version of AIF on free form factor graphs. The present paper focuses on deriving a local version of the free energy functionals used for AIF. This enables us to construct a version of AIF which applies to arbitrary graphical models and interfaces with prior work on message passing algorithms. The resulting messages are derived in our companion paper. We also identify a gap in the graphical notation used for factor graphs. While factor graphs are great at expressing a generative model, they have so far been unable to specify the full optimisation problem including constraints. To solve this problem we develop Constrained Forney-style Factor Graph (CFFG) notation which permits a fully graphical description of variational inference objectives. We then proceed to show how CFFG's can be used to reconstruct prior algorithms for AIF as well as derive new ones. The latter is demonstrated by deriving an algorithm that permits direct policy inference for AIF agents, circumventing a long standing scaling issue that has so far hindered the application of AIF in industrial settings. We demonstrate our algorithm on the classic T-maze task and show that it reproduces the information seeking behaviour that is a hallmark feature of AIF.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2023

Automating Model Comparison in Factor Graphs

Bayesian state and parameter estimation have been automated effectively in a variety of probabilistic programming languages. The process of model comparison on the other hand, which still requires error-prone and time-consuming manual derivations, is often overlooked despite its importance. This paper efficiently automates Bayesian model averaging, selection, and combination by message passing on a Forney-style factor graph with a custom mixture node. Parameter and state inference, and model comparison can then be executed simultaneously using message passing with scale factors. This approach shortens the model design cycle and allows for the straightforward extension to hierarchical and temporal model priors to accommodate for modeling complicated time-varying processes.

cs.LG↗