arXiv subjects

Billy C. Smith

Publications and source records attributed to Billy C. Smith.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Habitual lifestyle timing explains circadian timing, but daily lifestyle changes do not, in free-living humans across 2000 days

Background: Both between- and within-subject variations in circadian timing matter for health. If lifestyle changes could be used to regulate circadian timing, they would offer accessible and scalable routes to chronotherapy, but this link remains unclear under real-life conditions. Here, we explore how lifestyle 'traits' (such as typical wake time) and 'states' (day-to-day deviations from traits, such as waking up later than typical) explain between- and within-subject variation in acrophase (peak time) of the circadian rhythm of heart rate (CRHR). Methods: We collected free-living wearable data (smartwatch, continuous glucose monitor) from healthy volunteers for up to 4 weeks. The CRHR was derived from activity-adjusted heart rate, and acrophase was defined as time-of-day at daily CRHR peak. Sleep, food, and physical activity 'factors' were calculated and split into traits and states. Using a linear mixed-effects model, we tested how traits and states associate with between- and within-subject acrophase variance. Findings: Data from 105 healthy volunteers (66 female, age = 42.5 $\pm$ 15.7 years) spanning ~2000 days (18.8 $\pm$ 8.30 days each) were analysed. Traits were substantially more influential than states, explaining 42.3% versus 0.9% of total acrophase variance. Accordingly, traits explained 86.5% of between-subject variance, whereas states explained only 1.8% of within-subject variance. Sleep, food and physical activity factors contributed both jointly and uniquely, and lifestyle timing mattered most. Interpretation: Between-subject lifestyle traits explained acrophase better than within-subject lifestyle states. This asymmetry, alongside the considerable overlap between factors, supports sustained, holistic, timing-focused lifestyle adjustments as chronotherapy targets, testable through future interventional studies.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2025

Multimodal Modeling of Ultradian Rhythms Using the Hankel Alternative View of Koopman (HAVOK) Analysis

Ultradian rhythms - quasi-rhythmic fluctuations in behavior and physiology with periods shorter than 24 hours - are observed across various organisms, including humans. Despite their role in key biological processes such as sleep architecture and hormone regulation, their underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we leveraged wearable sensor technology for continuous monitoring of physiological signals in 16 healthy participants over two weeks. By systematically removing circadian and longer-scale rhythms, we isolated ultradian dynamics and modeled them using the Hankel Alternative View of Koopman (HAVOK) framework,a data-driven approach based on Takens' embedding theorem and Koopman operator theory. This allowed us to characterize ultradian rhythms as an intermittently forced linear system and distinguish between regular oscillatory behavior and more complex dynamics. Across participants, ultradian fluctuations were well-described by the HAVOK model, with intermittent forcing consistently observed. The model demonstrated strong forecasting accuracy, with root mean squared error (RMSE) of $0.0315 \pm 0.02$, $0.0306 \pm 0.02$, and $0.0218 \pm 0.02$ in the leading time-delay coordinates. Notably, a significant sex difference in model rank (z = -2.06, p = 0.0396) suggests that sex hormones may play a key role in ultradian dynamics. These findings provide evidence for intermittently forced linear systems as a useful framework for understanding ultradian rhythms and their regulation.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2025

More variable circadian rhythms in epilepsy captured by long-term heart rate recordings from wearable sensors

Objective: The circadian rhythm synchronizes physiological and behavioural patterns with the 24-hour light-dark cycle. Disruption to the circadian rhythm is linked to various health conditions, though optimal methods to describe these disruptions remain unclear. An emerging approach is to examine the intra-individual variability in measurable properties of the circadian rhythm over extended periods. Epileptic seizures are modulated by circadian rhythms, but the relevance of circadian rhythm disruption in epilepsy remains unexplored. Our study investigates intra-individual circadian variability in epilepsy and its relationship with seizures. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed over 70,000 hours of wearable smartwatch data (Fitbit) from 143 people with epilepsy (PWE) and 31 healthy controls. Circadian oscillations in heart rate time series were extracted, daily estimates of circadian period, acrophase, and amplitude properties were produced, and estimates of the intra-individual variability of these properties over an entire recording were calculated. Results: PWE exhibited greater intra-individual variability in period (76 min vs. 57 min, d=0.66, p<0.001) and acrophase (64 min vs. 48 min, d=0.49, p=0.004) compared to controls, but not in amplitude (2 bpm, d=-0.15, p=0.49). Variability in circadian properties showed no correlation with seizure frequency, nor any differences between weeks with and without seizures. Significance: For the first time, we show that heart rate circadian rhythms are more variable in PWE, detectable via consumer wearable devices. However, no association with seizure frequency or occurrence was found, suggesting that this variability might be underpinned by the epilepsy aetiology rather than being a seizure-driven effect.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2024

Unsupervised Machine Learning Identifies Latent Ultradian States in Multi-Modal Wearable Sensor Signals

Wearable sensors such as smartwatches have become ubiquitous in recent years, allowing the easy and continual measurement of physiological parameters such as heart rate, physical activity, body temperature, and blood glucose in an every-day setting. This multi-modal data offers the potential to identify latent states occurring across physiological measures, which may represent important bio-behavioural states that could not be observed in any single measure. Here we present an approach, utilising a hidden semi-Markov model, to identify such states in data collected using a smartwatch, electrocardiogram, and blood glucose monitor, over two weeks from a sample of 9 participants. We found 26 latent ultradian states across the sample, with many occurring at particular times of day. Here we describe some of these, as well as their association with subjective mood and time use diaries. These methods provide a novel avenue for developing insights into the physiology of everyday life.

q-bio.NC↗