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Billy Quarles

Publications and source records attributed to Billy Quarles.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Eclipse Timing of the Eccentric Planet HD 80606b with JWST: Constraints on a Second Planet and other Dynamical Effects

A variety of effects can perturb the orbital properties of single planets in close orbits around their host stars. HD80606 b is a highly eccentric ($\epsilon$=0.93) exoplanet orbiting its host G5V star, HD80606. HD80606 b became a compelling target for exoplanet research after (Laughlin et al 2009) discovered that the 4.16 MJup planet transits and is eclipsed by HD80606, thereby enabling photometric and spectroscopic observations to yield a wealth of information about the object. The exquisite precision of recent JWST eclipse timing offers an opportunity to investigate whether the orbit of HD80606 b is modified due to a variety of mechanisms, including General Relativity, tidal torques, or the presence of a second perturbing planet. We have used over 25 years of radial velocity data plus eclipse and transit observations to place limits on the precession of HD80606 b's orbit and to assess which of these effects, if any, are observable. The new models are consistent with constant values of period, eccentricity and the argument of periastron, $\omega$, with a limit on $\dot{\omega}$ at the level of the predicted GR drift. The PRV and timing data limit the mass and location of a second planet external to HD80606b. Timing offsets between JWST eclipses relative to the Pearson et al (2022) predictions are attributed to the poor constraints on $\sqrt{\epsilon} (\cos\ \omega, \sin\ \omega)$ with only the single eclipse measurement available (Spitzer 2009) in that analysis and to an over-weighting of the eclipse timing in that earlier analysis.

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Tidal evolution of packed moon systems around an Earth-mass planet

While missions have long targeted terrestrial exoplanets within the habitable zone of their host stars, the number of exomoon candidates is expected to grow as next generation space-based observatories achieve the photometric sensitivity required to detect their transit signals. Constraining the stability limits of tightly packed moon systems is therefore essential for transit searches and predicting the number of moons around terrestrial planets. In our Solar System, only three moons orbit the terrestrial planets, motivating the question of whether Earth-mass exoplanet systems can sustain long-lived, tightly packed satellites. We investigate the stability limits of an Earth-mass planet orbiting a Sun-mass star, where the planet hosts multiple moons. We use the REBOUND N-body integrator along with the tides_spin module in REBOUNDx to assess the stability of tightly packed systems of Luna-, Pluto-, and Ceres-mass moons across a range of tidal dissipation parameters, up to $10^{7}$ dynamical orbits of the innermost moon. We find that an Earth-mass planet can stably host up to two Luna-mass moons, three Pluto-mass moons, or five Ceres-mass moons. Under Earth-like dissipation, the Luna, Pluto, and Ceres packed systems survive within narrow regions of orbital spacing. These results imply that long-lived multi-moon systems around Earth-mass planets are possible but strongly depend on tidal dissipation; for these architectures to exist on billion-year timescales, tides must be weaker than those of the present-day Earth-Moon system.

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Tidally Torn: Why the Most Common Stars May Lack Large, Habitable-Zone Moons

Earth-like planets in the habitable zone (HZ) of M-dwarfs have recently been targeted in the search for exomoons. We study the stability and lifetime of large (Luna-like) moons, accounting for the effects of 3-body interactions and tidal forces using the N-body simulator rebound and its extension library reboundx. We find that those moons have a notably different likelihood of existence (and, by implication, observability). Large moons orbiting Earth-like planets in the HZs of M4 and M2 dwarfs become unstable well before $10^7$ and $10^8 \textrm{ yr}$, respectively, and in most cases, those orbiting M0-dwarfs become unstable in much less than $10^9 \textrm{ yr}$. We conclude that HZ planets orbiting M-dwarfs are unlikely to harbor large moons, thus affecting the total number of possible moons in our galaxy and the Universe at large. Since moons may help enhance the habitability of their host planet, besides being possibly habitable themselves, these results may have notable implications for exolife, and should also be considered when seeking solutions to the Drake equation and the Fermi paradox.

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Astrometric Methods for Detecting Exomoons Orbiting Imaged Exoplanets: Prospects for Detecting Moons Orbiting a Giant Planet in $\alpha$ Centauri A's Habitable Zone

Nearby giant exoplanets offer an opportunity to search for moons (exomoons) orbiting them. Here, we present a simulation framework for investigating the possibilities of detecting exomoons via their astrometric signal in planet-to-star relative astrometry. We focus our simulations on $\alpha$ Centauri A, orbited by a hypothetical giant planet consistent with candidate detections in Very Large Telescope and James Webb Space Telescope observations. We consider a variety of observatory architectures capable of searching for exomoons, including upcoming facilities and also a hypothetical dedicated facility $-$ e.g., a purpose-built space telescope with diameter = 3m, central observing wavelength of 500 nm, and contrast-limited performance of $\sim$10$^{-9}$ in 1 hr observations. We find that such a facility would be capable of detecting $\sim$Earth-mass moons in a five year campaign, assuming a Saturn-mass planet. More generally, we simulate expected detection limits for a variety of levels of astrometric precision. We find that moons as small as $\sim$0.2 M$_\oplus$ on orbital periods of 4$-$30 days can be detected with astrometric precision of 0.1 mas and observing cadence of 1 hr over a five year campaign. Additionally, we find that a 39m ground-based telescope can detect Earth-sized exomoons orbiting the same hypothetical planet with a more modest observing cadence of one day. We discuss these results as motivation for a dedicated space observatory as well as a more detailed study of the physical parameters of a greater variety of star-planet-moon systems.

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Worlds Next Door: A Candidate Giant Planet Imaged in the Habitable Zone of $\alpha$ Cen A. I. Observations, Orbital and Physical Properties, and Exozodi Upper Limits

We report on coronagraphic observations of the nearest solar-type star, $\alpha$ Cen A, using the MIRI instrument on the James Webb Space Telescope. With three epochs of observation (August 2024, February 2025, and April 2025), we achieve a sensitivity sufficient to detect $T_{\rm eff}\approx$ 225-250 K (1-1.2 $R_{\rm Jup}$) planets between 1"-2" and exozodiacal dust emission at the level of $>$5-8$\times$ the brightness of our own zodiacal cloud. The lack of exozodiacal dust emission sets an unprecedented limit of a few times the brightness of our own zodiacal cloud$-$a factor of $\gtrsim$10 more sensitive than measured toward any other stellar system to date. In August 2024, we detected a F$_\nu$(15.5 $\mu$m) = 3.5 mJy point source, called $S1$, at a separation of 1.5" from $\alpha$ Cen A. Because the August 2024 epoch had only one successful observation at a single roll angle, it is not possible to unambiguously confirm $S1$ as a bona fide planet. Our analysis confirms that $S1$ is neither a background nor a foreground object. $S1$ is not recovered in the February and April 2025 epochs. However, if $S1$ is the counterpart of the object, $C1$, seen by the VLT/NEAR program in 2019, we find that there is a 52% chance that the $S1+C1$ candidate was missed in both follow-up JWST/MIRI observations due to orbital motion. Incorporating constraints from the non-detections, we obtain families of dynamically stable orbits for $S1+C1$ with periods between 2-3 years. These suggest that the planet candidate is on an eccentric ($e \approx 0.4$) orbit significantly inclined with respect to $\alpha$ Cen AB orbital plane ($i_{\rm mutual} \approx 50^\circ$, or $\approx 130^\circ$). Based on the photometry and orbital properties, the planet candidate could have a temperature of 225 K, a radius of $\approx$1-1.1 $R_{\rm Jup}$ and a mass between 90-150 $M_{\rm Earth}$, consistent with RV limits.

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Can Moons Exist around the Habitable-zone Planet K2-18b?

K2-18b closely orbits a nearby M3 dwarf within its habitable zone, where this planet could be either a super-Earth or a mini-Neptune. Recent studies using transit spectroscopy suggest that it is Hycean in nature, but this classification is currently controversial. We use the N-body integrator rebound and its extension library reboundx to investigate the possibility of exomoons around K2-18b. Due to tidal interactions that induce outward migration, we find that any moons would be extremely unlikely. If formed, their lifetimes would be relatively short, not exceeding 10 Myr assuming Earth-like or Neptune-like tidal parameters for K2-18b. Recent studies estimate the stellar (and system) lifetime as 3 Gyr, which is significantly longer than the tidal migration timescale. We show that exomoons are unlikely to survive around K2-18b due to rapid tidal-driven migration, casting doubt on moon-based habitability scenarios for short-period M-dwarf planets in general.

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Orbital Stability of Hierarchical 3 and 4-Body Systems with Inclination: Results for Kepler-1625, 1708, and HD 23079

As the number of potential exomoon candidates grows, there is a heightened motivation of pursing orbital stability analyses. In this work, we provide an in-depth investigation into 4-body systems, consisting of a star, planet, moon, and submoon by using the N-body simulator rebound. Particularly, we focus on the system of Kepler-1625, where evidence of a possible exomoon has been obtained. We investigate the 3-body star--planet--moon system for the proposed exomoon parameters allowing us to identify stable regions associated with most of the space parameters. Thereafter, we consider a 4-body system including a potential submoon. We find that there are both stable and unstable regions, as expected, as well as resonance patterns that are further explored using numerical and analytical methods including secular perturbation theory. We are able to identify these resonances as secular in nature. In addition, we investigate 3-body versions of two other systems, Kepler-1708 and HD 23079, while also studying a 4-body version of HD 23079. Our work may serve as a generalized framework for exploring other planet--moon cases in the future while noting that the current 4-body study may be an incentive for studying further exomoon and submoon systems.

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Main-sequence systems: orbital stability around single star hosts

Stability is one of the most fundamental aspects regarding planetary systems. It plays an important role in our understanding on the formation channel of the planetary systems, as well as their habitability. Many approaches have been adopted to determine the stability of these systems, including brute-force N-body simulations, semi-analytical calculations, and more recently machine learning methods. This allows significant advances in our understanding of planetary system dynamics, as well as providing tools to constrain unknown parameters of exoplanetary systems (assuming these systems are stable). In the following, we focus on planets around single star hosts, and we provide an overview of the studies of planetary system stability for compact multi-planet systems and hierarchical multi-planet systems.

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Main-sequence systems: orbital stability in stellar binaries

The majority of star formation results in binaries or higher multiple systems, and planets in such systems are constrained to a limited range of orbital parameters in order to remain stable against perturbations from stellar companions. Many planets have been discovered in such multiple systems (such as stellar binaries), and understanding their stability is important in exoplanet searches and characterization. In this chapter, we focus on the orbital stability of planets in stellar binaries. We review key results based on semi-analytical secular (long term) methods, as well as results based on N-body simulations and more recent Machine Learning methods. We discuss planets orbiting one of the stellar binary components (S-type) and those orbiting both stars (P-type) separately.

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More Realistic Planetesimal Masses Alter Kuiper Belt Formation Models and Add Stochasticity

We perform simulations here that include the gravitational effects of the primordial planetesimal belt consisting of ~10^5 massive bodies. In our simulations, Neptune unlocks from resonance with the other giant planets and begins to migrate outward due to interactions with planetesimals before a planetary orbital instability is triggered, and afterward, residual Neptunian migration completes the formation of the modern Kuiper belt. Our present work exhibits a number of notable differences from prior work. First, Neptune's planetary resonance unlocking requires the Neptunian 3:2 mean motion resonance to sweep much of the primordial disk interior to 30 au prior to the giant planet instability. The pre-instability population of planetesimals is consequently lower in semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination, and this effect persists after the instability. Second, direct scattering between Pluto-mass bodies and other small bodies removes material from Neptunian resonances more efficiently than resonant dropout resulting from small changes in Neptune's semimajor axis during scattering between Pluto-mass bodies and Neptune. Thus, the primordial population of Pluto-mass bodies may be as few as ~200 objects. Finally, our simulation end states display a wide variety of orbital distributions, and clear relationships between final bulk Kuiper belt properties and Neptune's migration or initial planetesimal properties largely elude us. In particular, we find that the rapid, stochastic planetary orbital evolution occurring during the giant planet instability can significantly alter final Kuiper belt properties such as its inclination dispersion and the prominence of resonant populations. This complicates using modern Kuiper belt properties to confidently constrain early solar system events and conditions, including planetary orbital migration and the primordial Kuiper belt's characteristics.

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A Reply to: Large Exomoons unlikely around Kepler-1625 b and Kepler-1708 b

Recently, Heller & Hippke argued that the exomoon candidates Kepler-1625 b-i and Kepler-1708 b-i were allegedly 'refuted'. In this Matters Arising, we address these claims. For Kepler-1625 b, we show that their Hubble light curve is identical to that previously published by the same lead author, in which the moon-like dip was recovered. Indeed, our fits of their data again recover the moon-like dip with improved residuals than that obtained by Heller & Hippke. Their fits therefore appear to have somehow missed this deeper likelihood maximum, as well producing apparently unconverged posteriors. Consequently, their best-fitting moon is the same radius as the planet, Kepler-1625 b; a radically different signal from that which was originally claimed. The authors then inject this solution into the Kepler data and remark, as a point of concern, how retrievals obtain much higher significances than originally reported. However, this issue stems from the injection of a fundamentally different signal. We demonstrate that their Hubble light curve exhibits ~20% higher noise and discards 11% of the useful data, which compromises its ability to recover the subtle signal of Kepler-1625 b-i. For Kepler-1708 b-i it was claimed that the exomoon model's Bayes factor is highly sensitive to detrending choices, yielding reduced evidence with a biweight filter versus the original claim. We use their own i) detrended light curve and ii) biweight filter code to investigate these claims. For both, we recover the original moon signal, to even higher confidence than before. The discrepancy is explained by comparing to their quoted fit metrics, where we again demonstrate that the Heller & Hippke regression definitively missed the deeper likelihood maximum corresponding to Kepler-1708 b-i. We conclude that both candidates remain viable but certainly demand further observations.

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Stability of coorbital planets around binaries

In previous hydrodynamical simulations, we found a mechanism for nearly circular binary stars, like Kepler-413, to trap two planets in a stable 1:1 resonance. Therefore, the stability of coorbital configurations becomes a relevant question for planet formation around binary stars. Here, we investigate the coorbital planet stability using a Kepler-413 analogue as example and then expanding the parameters to study general n-body stability of planet pairs in eccentric horseshoe orbits around binaries. The stability is tested by evolving the planet orbits for $10^5$ binary periods with varying initial semi-major axes and planet eccentricities. The unstable region of a single circumbinary planet is used as a comparison to the investigated coorbital configurations in this work. We confirm previous findings on the stability of single planets and find a first order linear relation between orbit eccentricity and pericentre to identify stable orbits for various binary configurations. Such a linear relation is also found for the stability of 1:1 resonant planets around binaries. Stable orbits for eccentric horseshoe configurations exist with a pericentre closer than seven binary separations and, in the case of Kepler-413, the pericentre of the first stable orbit can be approximated by $r_{c,peri} = (2.88 e_p + 2.46) a_{bin}$.

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Mass Derivation of planets K2-21b and K2-21c from Transit Timing Variations

While various indirect methods are used to detect exoplanets, one of the most effective and accurate methods is the transit method, which measures the brightness of a given star for periodic dips when an exoplanet is passing in front of the parent star. For systems with multiple transiting planets, the gravitational perturbations between planets affect their transit times. The difference in transit times allows a measurement of the planet masses and orbital eccentricities. These parameters help speculating on the formation, evolution and stability of the system. Using Transit Timing Variations (TTVs), we measure the masses and eccentricities of two planets orbiting K2-21, a relatively bright K7 dwarf star. These two planets exhibit measurable TTVs, have orbital periods of about 9.32 days and 15.50 days, respectively, and a period ratio of about 1.66, which is relatively near to the 5:3 mean motion resonance. We report that the inner and outer planets in the K2-21 system have properties consistent with the presence of a hydrogen and helium dominated atmospheres, as we estimate their masses to be 1.59^{+0.52}_{-0.44} M_E and 3.88^{+1.22}_{-1.07} M_E and densities of 0.22^{+0.05}_{-0.04} rho_E and 0.34^{+0.08}_{-0.06} rho_E, respectively (M_E and rho_E are the mass and density of Earth, respectively). Our results show that the inner planet is less dense than the outer planet; one more counter-intuitive exoplanetary system such as Kepler-105, LTT 1445, TOI-175 and Kepler-279 systems.

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Statistical Analysis of the Dearth of Super-eccentric Jupiters in the Kepler Sample

Hot Jupiters may have formed in situ, or been delivered to their observed short periods through one of two categories of migration mechanisms: disk migration or high-eccentricity migration. If hot Jupiters were delivered by high-eccentricity migration, we would expect to observe some "super-eccentric" Jupiters in the process of migrating. We update a prediction for the number of super-eccentric Jupiters we would expect to observe in the Kepler sample if all hot Jupiters migrated through high-eccentricity migration and estimate the true number observed by Kepler. We find that the observations fail to match the prediction from high-eccentricity migration with 94.3% confidence and show that high-eccentricity migration can account for at most ~62% of the hot Jupiters discovered by Kepler.

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Moon-packing around an Earth-mass Planet

All 4 giant planets in the Solar System host systems of multiple moons, whereas the terrestrial planets only host up to 2 moons. The Earth can capture small asteroids as temporary satellites, which begs the question as to how many moons could stably orbit the Earth, or an Earth-mass exoplanet. We perform a series of N-body simulations of closely-spaced equal mass moons in nested orbits around an Earth-mass planet orbiting a Sun-like star. The innermost moon begins near the host planets Roche radius, and the system is packed until the outermost moon begins near the stability limit for single moons. The initial spacing of the moons follows an iterative scheme commonly used for studies of compact planetary systems around single stars. For 3-moons system, we generate MEGNO maps to calculate periodic and chaotic regions and to identify the destabilizing MMRs. Our calculations show that the maximum number of moons depends on the assumed masses of the satellites (Ceres-, Pluto-, and Luna-mass) that could maintain stable orbits in a tightly-packed environment. Through our N-body simulations, we find stable configurations for up to 7 $\pm$ 1 Ceres-mass, 4 $\pm$ 1 Pluto-mass, and 3 $\pm$ 1 Luna-mass moons. However, outward tidal migration will likely play a substantial role in the number of moons on stable orbits over the 10 Gyr stellar lifetime of a Sun-like star.

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An Exomoon Survey of 70 Cool Giant Exoplanets and the New Candidate Kepler-1708 b-i

Exomoons represent a crucial missing puzzle piece in our efforts to understand extrasolar planetary systems. To address this deficiency, we here describe an exomoon survey of 70 cool, giant transiting exoplanet candidates found by Kepler. We identify only one which exhibits a moon-like signal that passes a battery of vetting tests: Kepler-1708 b. We show that Kepler-1708 b is a statistically validated Jupiter-sized planet orbiting a Sun-like quiescent star at ~1.6AU. The signal of the exomoon candidate, Kepler-1708 b-i, is a 4.8-sigma effect and is persistent across different instrumental detrending methods, with a 1% false-positive probability via injection-recovery. Kepler-1708 b-i is ~2.6 Earth radii and is located in an approximately coplanar orbit at ~12 planetary radii from its ~1.6AU Jupiter-sized host. Future observations will be necessary to validate or reject the candidate.

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Milankovitch Cycles for a Circumstellar Earth-analog within $α$ Centauri-like Binaries

An Earth-analog orbiting within the habitable zone of $α$ Centauri B was shown to undergo large variations in its obliquity, or axial tilt, which affects the planetary climate by altering the radiative flux for a given latitude. We examine the potential implications of these obliquity variations for climate through Milankovitch cycles using an energy balance model with ice sheets. Similar to previous studies, the largest amplitude obliquity variations from spin-orbit resonances induce snowball states within the habitable zone, while moderate variations can allow for persistent ice caps or an ice belt. Particular outcomes for the global ice distribution can depend on the planetary orbit, obliquity, spin precession, binary orbit, and which star the Earth-analog orbits. An Earth-analog with an inclined orbits relative to the binary orbit can periodically transition through several global ice distribution states and risk runaway glaciation when periods of ice caps and an ice belt overlap. When determining the potential habitability for planets in stellar binaries, more care must be taken due to the orbital and spin dynamics.

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Updated Studies on Exomoons in the HD 23079 System

We re-evaluate the outer edge of orbital stability for possible exomoons orbiting the radial velocity planet discovered in the HD 23079 system. In this system, a solar-type star hosts a Jupiter-mass planet in a nearly circular orbit in the outer stellar habitable zone. The outer stability limit of exomoons is deduced using $N$-body and tidal migration simulations considering a large range of initial conditions, encompassing both prograde and retrograde orbits. In particular, we extend previous works by evaluating many values in the satellite mean anomaly to identify and exclude regions of quasi-stability. Future observations of this system can make use of our results through a scale factor relative to the currently measured minimum mass. Using a constant time lag tidal model (Hut 1981), we find that plausible tidal interactions within the system are insufficient to induce significant outward migration toward the theoretical stability limit. While current technologies are incapable of detecting exomoons in this system, we comment on the detectability of putative moons through Doppler monitoring within direct imaging observations in view of future research capacities.

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