arXiv subjects

Bingling She

Publications and source records attributed to Bingling She.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Leveraging deep generative modelling at the agent level in discrete-event simulations

Emulators are often invoked to facilitate parameter inference in computationally intensive agent-based simulations (ABSs). Most approaches, however, require a large sample of pre-existing outputs on which such emulators can be trained. For computationally intensive simulations, this sample can be prohibitively expensive to generate. We propose a new approach to leverage emulators at the agent level in event-based ABSs to reduce the computational requirements of the simulation itself. We demonstrate this in a computationally intensive ``multi-disease'' ABS, Thanzi La Onse, which self-consistently simulates a wide range of medical conditions in a population. By applying conditional tabular generative adversarial networks to replace the modelling of one of the simulated causes of ill health, road traffic injuries (RTIs), we are able to improve its simulation run-time by 86.6% (95% bootstrap confidence interval [85.2, 88.1]), while recovering the evolution of cause-specific mean disability adjusted life years with a 13% error, despite the low assumed incidence of fatal RTIs (~2%). Crucially, we do so while retaining the full ABS framework, and correctly recovering multi-disease dynamics. This represents a crucial step towards enabling full-model emulators for very computationally intensive simulations, and making large ABS amenable to rigorous parameter inference and a full understanding of parameter sensitivity.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2025

The properties of a Leontief production technology for Health System Modeling: the Thanzi la Onse model for Malawi

As health system modeling (HSM) advances to include more complete descriptions of the production of healthcare, it is important to establish a robust conceptual characterisation of the production process. For the Thanzi La Onse model in Malawi we have incorporated an approach to production that is based on a form of Leontief technology -- fixed input proportions. At first sight, this form of technology appears restrictive relative to the general conception of a production function employed in economics. In particular, the Leontief technology is associated with constant returns to scale, and level sets that are piecewise linear, both of which are highly restrictive properties. In this article we demonstrate that once incorporated into an all disease, agent-based model these properties are no longer present and the Leontief framework becomes a rich structure for describing healthcare production, and hence for examining the returns to health systems investments.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Incorporating an economic approach to production in a health system model

As computational capacity increases, it becomes possible to model health systems in greater detail. Multi-disease health system models (HSMs) represent a new development, building on individual level epidemiological models of multiple diseases and capturing how healthcare delivery systems respond to population health needs. The Thanzi la Onse (TLO) model of Malawi is the first of its kind in these respects. In this article, we discuss how we have been bringing economic concepts into the TLO model, and how we are continuing to develop this line of research. This has involved incorporating more sophisticated approaches to account for the effects of the unavailability of healthcare workers, and we are working towards establishing the role of different forms of ownership of healthcare facilities and different management practices. Not only does this broad approach make the model more flexible as a tool for understanding the impact of resource constraints, it opens up the possibility of analysing considerably richer policy scenarios; for example establishing an estimate of the health gain that could be achieved through expanding the workforce or reducing healthcare worker absence.

econ.GN↗