arXiv subjects

Bistra Dilkina

Publications and source records attributed to Bistra Dilkina.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Video Game Level Repair via Mixed Integer Linear Programming

Recent advancements in procedural content generation via machine learning enable the generation of video-game levels that are aesthetically similar to human-authored examples. However, the generated levels are often unplayable without additional editing. We propose a generate-then-repair framework for automatic generation of playable levels adhering to specific styles. The framework constructs levels using a generative adversarial network (GAN) trained with human-authored examples and repairs them using a mixed-integer linear program (MIP) with playability constraints. A key component of the framework is computing minimum cost edits between the GAN generated level and the solution of the MIP solver, which we cast as a minimum cost network flow problem. Results show that the proposed framework generates a diverse range of playable levels, that capture the spatial relationships between objects exhibited in the human-authored levels.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

End-to-End Game-Focused Learning of Adversary Behavior in Security Games

Stackelberg security games are a critical tool for maximizing the utility of limited defense resources to protect important targets from an intelligent adversary. Motivated by green security, where the defender may only observe an adversary's response to defense on a limited set of targets, we study the problem of learning a defense that generalizes well to a new set of targets with novel feature values and combinations. Traditionally, this problem has been addressed via a two-stage approach where an adversary model is trained to maximize predictive accuracy without considering the defender's optimization problem. We develop an end-to-end game-focused approach, where the adversary model is trained to maximize a surrogate for the defender's expected utility. We show both in theory and experimental results that our game-focused approach achieves higher defender expected utility than the two-stage alternative when there is limited data.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2020

End to end learning and optimization on graphs

Real-world applications often combine learning and optimization problems on graphs. For instance, our objective may be to cluster the graph in order to detect meaningful communities (or solve other common graph optimization problems such as facility location, maxcut, and so on). However, graphs or related attributes are often only partially observed, introducing learning problems such as link prediction which must be solved prior to optimization. Standard approaches treat learning and optimization entirely separately, while recent machine learning work aims to predict the optimal solution directly from the inputs. Here, we propose an alternative decision-focused learning approach that integrates a differentiable proxy for common graph optimization problems as a layer in learned systems. The main idea is to learn a representation that maps the original optimization problem onto a simpler proxy problem that can be efficiently differentiated through. Experimental results show that our ClusterNet system outperforms both pure end-to-end approaches (that directly predict the optimal solution) and standard approaches that entirely separate learning and optimization. Code for our system is available at https://github.com/bwilder0/clusternet.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Human-Machine Collaboration for Fast Land Cover Mapping

We propose incorporating human labelers in a model fine-tuning system that provides immediate user feedback. In our framework, human labelers can interactively query model predictions on unlabeled data, choose which data to label, and see the resulting effect on the model's predictions. This bi-directional feedback loop allows humans to learn how the model responds to new data. Our hypothesis is that this rich feedback allows human labelers to create mental models that enable them to better choose which biases to introduce to the model. We compare human-selected points to points selected using standard active learning methods. We further investigate how the fine-tuning methodology impacts the human labelers' performance. We implement this framework for fine-tuning high-resolution land cover segmentation models. Specifically, we fine-tune a deep neural network -- trained to segment high-resolution aerial imagery into different land cover classes in Maryland, USA -- to a new spatial area in New York, USA. The tight loop turns the algorithm and the human operator into a hybrid system that can produce land cover maps of a large area much more efficiently than the traditional workflows. Our framework has applications in geospatial machine learning settings where there is a practically limitless supply of unlabeled data, of which only a small fraction can feasibly be labeled through human efforts.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2019

Stay Ahead of Poachers: Illegal Wildlife Poaching Prediction and Patrol Planning Under Uncertainty with Field Test Evaluations

Illegal wildlife poaching threatens ecosystems and drives endangered species toward extinction. However, efforts for wildlife protection are constrained by the limited resources of law enforcement agencies. To help combat poaching, the Protection Assistant for Wildlife Security (PAWS) is a machine learning pipeline that has been developed as a data-driven approach to identify areas at high risk of poaching throughout protected areas and compute optimal patrol routes. In this paper, we take an end-to-end approach to the data-to-deployment pipeline for anti-poaching. In doing so, we address challenges including extreme class imbalance (up to 1:200), bias, and uncertainty in wildlife poaching data to enhance PAWS, and we apply our methodology to three national parks with diverse characteristics. (i) We use Gaussian processes to quantify predictive uncertainty, which we exploit to improve robustness of our prescribed patrols and increase detection of snares by an average of 30%. We evaluate our approach on real-world historical poaching data from Murchison Falls and Queen Elizabeth National Parks in Uganda and, for the first time, Srepok Wildlife Sanctuary in Cambodia. (ii) We present the results of large-scale field tests conducted in Murchison Falls and Srepok Wildlife Sanctuary which confirm that the predictive power of PAWS extends promisingly to multiple parks. This paper is part of an effort to expand PAWS to 800 parks around the world through integration with SMART conservation software.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

MIPaaL: Mixed Integer Program as a Layer

Machine learning components commonly appear in larger decision-making pipelines; however, the model training process typically focuses only on a loss that measures accuracy between predicted values and ground truth values. Decision-focused learning explicitly integrates the downstream decision problem when training the predictive model, in order to optimize the quality of decisions induced by the predictions. It has been successfully applied to several limited combinatorial problem classes, such as those that can be expressed as linear programs (LP), and submodular optimization. However, these previous applications have uniformly focused on problems from specific classes with simple constraints. Here, we enable decision-focused learning for the broad class of problems that can be encoded as a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MIP), hence supporting arbitrary linear constraints over discrete and continuous variables. We show how to differentiate through a MIP by employing a cutting planes solution approach, which is an exact algorithm that iteratively adds constraints to a continuous relaxation of the problem until an integral solution is found. We evaluate our new end-to-end approach on several real world domains and show that it outperforms the standard two phase approaches that treat prediction and prescription separately, as well as a baseline approach of simply applying decision-focused learning to the LP relaxation of the MIP.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Learning to Prescribe Interventions for Tuberculosis Patients Using Digital Adherence Data

Digital Adherence Technologies (DATs) are an increasingly popular method for verifying patient adherence to many medications. We analyze data from one city served by 99DOTS, a phone-call-based DAT deployed for Tuberculosis (TB) treatment in India where nearly 3 million people are afflicted with the disease each year. The data contains nearly 17,000 patients and 2.1M dose records. We lay the groundwork for learning from this real-world data, including a method for avoiding the effects of unobserved interventions in training data used for machine learning. We then construct a deep learning model, demonstrate its interpretability, and show how it can be adapted and trained in different clinical scenarios to better target and improve patient care. In the real-time risk prediction setting our model could be used to proactively intervene with 21% more patients and before 76% more missed doses than current heuristic baselines. For outcome prediction, our model performs 40% better than baseline methods, allowing cities to target more resources to clinics with a heavier burden of patients at risk of failure. Finally, we present a case study demonstrating how our model can be trained in an end-to-end decision focused learning setting to achieve 15% better solution quality in an example decision problem faced by health workers.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Evolution of Hierarchical Structure & Reuse in iGEM Synthetic DNA Sequences

Many complex systems, both in technology and nature, exhibit hierarchical modularity: smaller modules, each of them providing a certain function, are used within larger modules that perform more complex functions. Previously, we have proposed a modeling framework, referred to as Evo-Lexis, that provides insight to some fundamental questions about evolving hierarchical systems. The predictions of the Evo-Lexis model should be tested using real data from evolving systems in which the outputs can be well represented by sequences. In this paper, we investigate the time series of iGEM synthetic DNA dataset sequences, and whether the resulting iGEM hierarchies exhibit the qualitative properties predicted by the Evo-Lexis framework. Contrary to Evo-Lexis, in iGEM the amount of reuse decreases during the timeline of the dataset. Although this results in development of less cost-efficient and less deep Lexis-DAGs, the dataset exhibits a bias in reusing specific nodes more often than others. This results in the Lexis-DAGs to take the shape of an hourglass with relatively high H-score values and stable set of core nodes. Despite the reuse bias and stability of the core set, the dataset presents a high amount of diversity among the targets which is in line with modeling of Evo-Lexis.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2019

Migration patterns under different scenarios of sea level rise

We propose a framework to examine future migration patterns of people under different sea level rise scenarios using models of human migration. Specifically, we couple a sea level rise model with a data-driven model of human migration, creating a generalized joint model of climate driven migration that can be used to simulate population distributions under potential future sea level rise scenarios. We show how this joint model relaxes assumptions in existing efforts to model climate driven human migration, and use it to simulate how migration, driven by sea level rise, differs from baseline migration patterns. Our results show that the effects of sea level rise are pervasive, expanding beyond coastal areas via increased migration, and disproportionately affecting some areas of the United States. The code for reproducing this study is available at https://github.com/calebrob6/migration-slr.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2018

Melding the Data-Decisions Pipeline: Decision-Focused Learning for Combinatorial Optimization

Creating impact in real-world settings requires artificial intelligence techniques to span the full pipeline from data, to predictive models, to decisions. These components are typically approached separately: a machine learning model is first trained via a measure of predictive accuracy, and then its predictions are used as input into an optimization algorithm which produces a decision. However, the loss function used to train the model may easily be misaligned with the end goal, which is to make the best decisions possible. Hand-tuning the loss function to align with optimization is a difficult and error-prone process (which is often skipped entirely). We focus on combinatorial optimization problems and introduce a general framework for decision-focused learning, where the machine learning model is directly trained in conjunction with the optimization algorithm to produce high-quality decisions. Technically, our contribution is a means of integrating common classes of discrete optimization problems into deep learning or other predictive models, which are typically trained via gradient descent. The main idea is to use a continuous relaxation of the discrete problem to propagate gradients through the optimization procedure. We instantiate this framework for two broad classes of combinatorial problems: linear programs and submodular maximization. Experimental results across a variety of domains show that decision-focused learning often leads to improved optimization performance compared to traditional methods. We find that standard measures of accuracy are not a reliable proxy for a predictive model's utility in optimization, and our method's ability to specify the true goal as the model's training objective yields substantial dividends across a range of decision problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Combinatorial Attacks on Binarized Neural Networks

Binarized Neural Networks (BNNs) have recently attracted significant interest due to their computational efficiency. Concurrently, it has been shown that neural networks may be overly sensitive to "attacks" - tiny adversarial changes in the input - which may be detrimental to their use in safety-critical domains. Designing attack algorithms that effectively fool trained models is a key step towards learning robust neural networks. The discrete, non-differentiable nature of BNNs, which distinguishes them from their full-precision counterparts, poses a challenge to gradient-based attacks. In this work, we study the problem of attacking a BNN through the lens of combinatorial and integer optimization. We propose a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) formulation of the problem. While exact and flexible, the MILP quickly becomes intractable as the network and perturbation space grow. To address this issue, we propose IProp, a decomposition-based algorithm that solves a sequence of much smaller MILP problems. Experimentally, we evaluate both proposed methods against the standard gradient-based attack (FGSM) on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST, and show that IProp performs favorably compared to FGSM, while scaling beyond the limits of the MILP.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Emergence and Evolution of Hierarchical Structure in Complex Systems

It is well known that many complex systems, both in technology and nature, exhibit hierarchical modularity: smaller modules, each of them providing a certain function, are used within larger modules that perform more complex functions. What is not well understood however is how this hierarchical structure (which is fundamentally a network property) emerges, and how it evolves over time. We propose a modeling framework, referred to as Evo-Lexis, that provides insight to some fundamental questions about evolving hierarchical systems. Evo-Lexis models the most elementary modules of the system as symbols ("sources") and the modules at the highest level of the hierarchy as sequences of those symbols ("targets"). Evo-Lexis computes the optimized adjustment of a given hierarchy when the set of targets changes over time by additions and removals (a process referred to as "incremental design"). In this paper we use computation modeling to show that: - Low-cost and deep hierarchies emerge when the population of target sequences evolves through tinkering and mutation. - Strong selection on the cost of new candidate targets results in reuse of more complex (longer) nodes in an optimized hierarchy. - The bias towards reuse of complex nodes results in an "hourglass architecture" (i.e., few intermediate nodes that cover almost all source-target paths). - With such bias, the core nodes are conserved for relatively long time periods although still being vulnerable to major transitions and punctuated equilibria. - Finally, we analyze the differences in terms of cost and structure between incrementally designed hierarchies and the corresponding "clean-slate" hierarchies which result when the system is designed from scratch after a change.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2018

Learning Combinatorial Optimization Algorithms over Graphs

The design of good heuristics or approximation algorithms for NP-hard combinatorial optimization problems often requires significant specialized knowledge and trial-and-error. Can we automate this challenging, tedious process, and learn the algorithms instead? In many real-world applications, it is typically the case that the same optimization problem is solved again and again on a regular basis, maintaining the same problem structure but differing in the data. This provides an opportunity for learning heuristic algorithms that exploit the structure of such recurring problems. In this paper, we propose a unique combination of reinforcement learning and graph embedding to address this challenge. The learned greedy policy behaves like a meta-algorithm that incrementally constructs a solution, and the action is determined by the output of a graph embedding network capturing the current state of the solution. We show that our framework can be applied to a diverse range of optimization problems over graphs, and learns effective algorithms for the Minimum Vertex Cover, Maximum Cut and Traveling Salesman problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Hawkes Processes for Invasive Species Modeling and Management

The spread of invasive species to new areas threatens the stability of ecosystems and causes major economic losses in agriculture and forestry. We propose a novel approach to minimizing the spread of an invasive species given a limited intervention budget. We first model invasive species propagation using Hawkes processes, and then derive closed-form expressions for characterizing the effect of an intervention action on the invasion process. We use this to obtain an optimal intervention plan based on an integer programming formulation, and compare the optimal plan against several ecologically-motivated heuristic strategies used in practice. We present an empirical study of two variants of the invasive control problem: minimizing the final rate of invasions, and minimizing the number of invasions at the end of a given time horizon. Our results show that the optimized intervention achieves nearly the same level of control that would be attained by completely eradicating the species, with a 20% cost saving. Additionally, we design a heuristic intervention strategy based on a combination of the density and life stage of the invasive individuals, and find that it comes surprisingly close to the optimized strategy, suggesting that this could serve as a good rule of thumb in invasive species management.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2017

A Machine Learning Approach to Modeling Human Migration

Human migration is a type of human mobility, where a trip involves a person moving with the intention of changing their home location. Predicting human migration as accurately as possible is important in city planning applications, international trade, spread of infectious diseases, conservation planning, and public policy development. Traditional human mobility models, such as gravity models or the more recent radiation model, predict human mobility flows based on population and distance features only. These models have been validated on commuting flows, a different type of human mobility, and are mainly used in modeling scenarios where large amounts of prior ground truth mobility data are not available. One downside of these models is that they have a fixed form and are therefore not able to capture more complicated migration dynamics. We propose machine learning models that are able to incorporate any number of exogenous features, to predict origin/destination human migration flows. Our machine learning models outperform traditional human mobility models on a variety of evaluation metrics, both in the task of predicting migrations between US counties as well as international migrations. In general, predictive machine learning models of human migration will provide a flexible base with which to model human migration under different what-if conditions, such as potential sea level rise or population growth scenarios.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

A Deep Learning Approach for Population Estimation from Satellite Imagery

Knowing where people live is a fundamental component of many decision making processes such as urban development, infectious disease containment, evacuation planning, risk management, conservation planning, and more. While bottom-up, survey driven censuses can provide a comprehensive view into the population landscape of a country, they are expensive to realize, are infrequently performed, and only provide population counts over broad areas. Population disaggregation techniques and population projection methods individually address these shortcomings, but also have shortcomings of their own. To jointly answer the questions of "where do people live" and "how many people live there," we propose a deep learning model for creating high-resolution population estimations from satellite imagery. Specifically, we train convolutional neural networks to predict population in the USA at a $0.01^{\circ} \times 0.01^{\circ}$ resolution grid from 1-year composite Landsat imagery. We validate these models in two ways: quantitatively, by comparing our model's grid cell estimates aggregated at a county-level to several US Census county-level population projections, and qualitatively, by directly interpreting the model's predictions in terms of the satellite image inputs. We find that aggregating our model's estimates gives comparable results to the Census county-level population projections and that the predictions made by our model can be directly interpreted, which give it advantages over traditional population disaggregation methods. In general, our model is an example of how machine learning techniques can be an effective tool for extracting information from inherently unstructured, remotely sensed data to provide effective solutions to social problems.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2016

Refugee Resettlement Housing Scout

According to the United States High Commission for Refugees (UNHCr), there are 65.3 million forcibly displaced people in the world today, 21.5 million of them being refugees. This has led to an unprecedented refugee crisis which has led countries to accept refugee families and to resettle them. Diverse agencies are helping refugees coming to US to resettle and start their new life in the country. One of the first and most challenging steps of this process is to find affordable housing that also meets a suite of additional constraints and priorities. These include being within a mile of public transportation and near schools, faith centers and international grocery stores. We detail an interactive data-driven web-based tool, which incorporates in one consolidated platform most of the needed information. The tool searches, filters and demonstrates a list of possible housing locations, and allows for the dynamic prioritization based on user-specified importance weights on the diverse criteria. The platform was created in a partnership with New American Pathways, a nonprofit that supports refugee resettlement in the metro Atlanta, but exemplifies a methodology that can help many other organizations with similar goals.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2016

δ-MAPS: From spatio-temporal data to a weighted and lagged network between functional domains

We propose δ-MAPS, a method that analyzes spatio-temporal data to first identify the distinct spatial components of the underlying system, referred to as "domains", and second to infer the connections between them. A domain is a spatially contiguous region of highly correlated temporal activity. The core of a domain is a point or subregion at which a metric of local homogeneity is maximum across the entire domain. We compute a domain as the maximum-sized set of spatially contiguous cells that include the detected core and satisfy a homogeneity constraint, expressed in terms of the average pairwise cross-correlation across all cells in the domain. Domains may be spatially overlapping. Different domains may have correlated activity, potentially at a lag, because of direct or indirect interactions. The proposed edge inference method examines the statistical significance of each lagged cross-correlation between two domains, infers a range of lag values for each edge, and assigns a weight to each edge based on the covariance of the two domains. We illustrate the application of δ-MAPS on data from two domains: climate science and neuroscience.

cs.OH↗