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Biswabrata Pradhan

Publications and source records attributed to Biswabrata Pradhan.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

Trust Region Constrained Bayesian Optimization with Penalized Constraint Handling

Constrained optimization in high-dimensional black-box settings is difficult due to expensive evaluations, the lack of gradient information, and complex feasibility regions. In this work, we propose a Bayesian optimization method that combines a penalty formulation, a surrogate model, and a trust region strategy. The constrained problem is converted to an unconstrained form by penalizing constraint violations, which provides a unified modeling framework. A trust region restricts the search to a local region around the current best solution, which improves stability and efficiency in high dimensions. Within this region, we use the Expected Improvement acquisition function to select evaluation points by balancing improvement and uncertainty. The proposed Trust Region method integrates penalty-based constraint handling with local surrogate modeling. This combination enables efficient exploration of feasible regions while maintaining sample efficiency. We compare the proposed method with state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world high-dimensional constrained optimization problems. The results show that the method identifies high-quality feasible solutions with fewer evaluations and maintains stable performance across different settings.

stat.ML↗

BVFLMSP : Bayesian Vertical Federated Learning for Multimodal Survival with Privacy

Multimodal time-to-event prediction often requires integrating sensitive data distributed across multiple parties, making centralized model training impractical due to privacy constraints. At the same time, most existing multimodal survival models produce single deterministic predictions without indicating how confident the model is in its estimates, which can limit their reliability in real-world decision making. To address these challenges, we propose BVFLMSP, a Bayesian Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) framework for multimodal time-to-event analysis based on a Split Neural Network architecture. In BVFLMSP, each client independently models a specific data modality using a Bayesian neural network, while a central server aggregates intermediate representations to perform survival risk prediction. To enhance privacy, we integrate differential privacy mechanisms by perturbing client side representations before transmission, providing formal privacy guarantees against information leakage during federated training. We first evaluate our Bayesian multimodal survival model against widely used single modality survival baselines and the centralized multimodal baseline MultiSurv. Across multimodal settings, the proposed method shows consistent improvements in discrimination performance, with up to 0.02 higher C-index compared to MultiSurv. We then compare federated and centralized learning under varying privacy budgets across different modality combinations, highlighting the tradeoff between predictive performance and privacy. Experimental results show that BVFLMSP effectively includes multimodal data, improves survival prediction over existing baselines, and remains robust under strict privacy constraints while providing uncertainty estimates.

stat.ML↗

Residual lifetime prediction for heterogeneous degradation data by Bayesian semi-parametric method

Degradation data are considered for assessing reliability in highly reliable systems. The usual assumption is that degradation units come from a homogeneous population. But in presence of high variability in the manufacturing process, this assumption is not true in general; that is different sub-populations are involved in the study. Predicting residual lifetime of a functioning unit is a major challenge in the degradation modeling especially in heterogeneous environment. To account for heterogeneous degradation data, we have proposed a Bayesian semi-parametric approach to relax the conventional modeling assumptions. We model the degradation path using Dirichlet process mixture of normal distributions. Based on the samples obtained from posterior distribution of model parameters we obtain residual lifetime distribution for individual unit. Transformation based MCMC technique is used for simulating values from the derived residual lifetime distribution for prediction of residual lifetime. A simulation study is undertaken to check performance of the proposed semi-parametric model compared with parametric model. Fatigue Crack Size data is analyzed to illustrate the proposed methodology.

stat.ME↗

Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plans for competing risks data under interval censoring

We obtain a reliability acceptance sampling plan for independent competing risk data under interval censoring schemes using the Bayesian approach. At first, the Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plan is obtained where the decision criteria of accepting a lot is pre-fixed. For large samples, computing Bayes risk is computationally intensive. Therefore, an approximate Bayes risk is obtained using the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Lastly, the Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plan is obtained, where the decision function is arbitrary. The manufacturer can derive an optimal decision function by minimizing the Bayes risk among all decision functions. This optimal decision function is known as Bayes decision function. The optimal sampling plan is obtained by minimizing the Bayes risk. The algorithms are provided for the computation of optimum Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plan. Numerical results are provided and comparisons between the Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plans are carried out.

stat.AP↗

Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plan sampling plans under adaptive accelerated type-II censored competing risk data

In recent times, products have become increasingly complex and highly reliable, so failures typically occur after long periods of operation under normal conditions and may arise from multiple causes. This paper employs simple step-stress partial accelerated life testing (SSSPALT) within the competing risks framework to determine the Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plan (BRASP) under type-II censoring. Elevating the stress during the life test incurs an additional cost that increases the cost of the life test. In this context, an adaptive scenario is also considered in that sampling plan. The adaptive scenario is as follows: the stress is increased after a certain time if the number of failures up to that point is less than a pre-specified number of failures. The Bayes decision function and Bayes risk are derived for the general loss function. An optimal BRASP under that adaptive SSSPALT is obtained for the quadratic loss function by minimizing Bayes risk. An algorithm is provided to determine the optimal proposed BRASP. Further, comparative studies are conducted between the proposed BRASP, the conventional non-accelerated BRASP, and the conventional accelerated BRASP under type-II censoring to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, the methodology is illustrated using real data.

stat.ME↗

Determination of Optimum Warranty Region for Two Dimensional Dependent Data

This paper presents a method for determining the optimal two-dimensional warranty region for age and mileage scales across all possible combinations of free replacement warranty (FRW), prorata warranty (PRW), and FRW-PRW combined policies. The operational time or lifetime and usage of the products are modeled using a bivariate Gumbel copula with Weibull as the marginal distribution. The optimal warranty region is derived by maximizing an expected utility function, which incorporates two cost components: the economic benefit function and the warranty cost function, specifically constructed for the two-dimensional warranty scenario. To obtain the optimal warranty region, a real-world dataset of traction motors, including age and mileage information, is analyzed. The results show that considering a two-dimensional warranty cost function yields the highest utility compared to all other scenarios.

stat.AP↗

Reliability Acceptance Sampling Plans under Progressive Type-I Interval Censoring Schemes in Presence of Dependent Competing Risks

We discuss the development of reliability acceptance sampling plans under progressive Type-I interval censoring schemes in the presence of competing causes of failure. We consider a general framework to accommodate the presence of independent or dependent competing risks and derive the expression for the Fisher information matrix under this framework. We also discuss the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators, which are essential in obtaining the sampling plans. Subsequently, we specialize in a frailty model, which allows us to accommodate the dependence among the potential causes of failure. The frailty model provides an independent competing risks model as a limiting case. We then present the traditional sampling plans for both independent and dependent competing risks models using producer and consumer risks. We also consider the design of optimal PIC-I schemes in this context and use a c optimal design criterion, which helps us to obtain more useful reliability acceptance sampling plans in the presence of budgetary constraints. We conduct a comprehensive numerical experiment to examine the impact of the level of dependence among the potential failure times on the resulting sampling plans. We demonstrate an application of the developed methodology using a real-life example and perform a simulation study to study the finite sample properties of the developed sampling plans. The methodology developed in this article has the potential to improve the design of optimal censoring schemes in the presence of competing risks while taking into account budgetary constraints.

stat.AP↗

Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plans under adaptive simple step stress partial accelerated life test

In the traditional simple step-stress partial accelerated life test (SSSPALT), the items are put on normal operating conditions up to a certain time and after that the stress is increased to get the failure time information early. However, when the stress increases, an additional cost is incorporated that increases the cost of the life test. In this context, an adaptive SSSPALT is considered where the stress is increased after a certain time if the number of failures up to that point is less than a pre-specified number of failures. We consider determination of Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plans (BSP) through adaptive SSSALT conducted under Type I censoring. The BSP under adaptive SSSPALT is called BSPAA. The Bayes decision function and Bayes risk are obtained for the general loss function. Optimal BSPAAs are obtained for the quadratic loss function by minimizing Bayes risk. An algorithm is provided for computation of optimum BSPAA. Comparisons between the proposed BSPAA and the conventional BSP through non-accelerated life test (CBSP) and conventional BSP through SSSPALT (CBSPA) are carried out.

stat.AP↗

Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plan with optional warranty under hybrid censoring

This work considers design of Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plan (RASP) under hybrid censored life test for the products sold under optional warranty. The consumer and manufacturer agree on a common lifetime distribution of the product. However, they differ in the assessment of the prior distributions because of the adversarial nature of the consumer and manufacturer. The consumer takes decision based on his/her utility and prior belief without warranty offer by the manufacturer. If the decision is rejection, manufacturer provides warranty offer to the consumer. If the consumer rejects the lot with a warranty, the manufacturer conducts life test under hybrid censoring scheme (HCS) and provide lifetime information to the consumer. The consumer updates his/her belief based on lifetime information provided by the manufacturer. The consumer then takes decision of acceptance or rejection of lot based on updated belief. Task of the manufacturer is to determine the optimal life testing plan.

stat.AP↗

Some stochastic comparison results for frailty and resilience models

Frailty and resilience models provide a way to introduce random effects in hazard and reversed hazard rate modeling by random variables, called frailty and resilience random variables, respectively, to account for unobserved or unexplained heterogeneity among experimental units. This paper investigates the effects of frailty and resilience random variables on the baseline random variables using some shifted stochastic orders based on some ageing properties of the baseline random variables. Relevant examples are provided to illustrate the results. Some results are illustrated with real-world data.

math.ST↗

Dispersive and star ordering of sample extremes from dependent random variables following the proportional odds model

Dispersive order is a type of variability order for comparing the variability in probability distributions. Star order compares the skewness of probability distributions. This work considers dispersive and star orders of extreme order statistics from dependent random variables following the proportional odds (PO) model. The joint distribution of the random variables is modeled with Archimedean copula. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the findings.

math.ST↗

Stochastic comparisons of lifetimes of series and parallel systems with dependent and heterogeneous components

This work considers stochastic comparisons of lifetimes of series and parallel systems with dependent and heterogeneous components having lifetimes following the proportional odds (PO) model. The joint distribution of component lifetimes is modeled by Archimedean survival copula. We discuss some potential applications of our findings in system reliability and actuarial science.

math.ST↗

Generalized Weighted Survival and Failure Entropies and their Dynamic Versions

The weighted forms of generalized survival and failure entropies of order ($α,β$) are proposed and some properties are obtained. We further propose the dynamic versions of weighted generalized survival and failures entropies and obtained some properties and bounds. Characterization for Rayleigh and power distributions are done by dynamic weighted generalized entropies. We further consider the empirical versions of generalized weighted survival and failure entropies and using the difference between theoretical and empirical survival entropies a test for exponentiality is considered.

math.ST↗

Determination of Bayesian optimal warranty length under Type-II unified hybrid censoring scheme

Determination of an appropriate warranty length for the lifetime of the product is an important issue to the manufacturer. In this article, optimal warranty length of the product for the combined free replacement and the pro-rata warranty policy is computed based on the Type-II unified hybrid censored data. A non-linear pro-rata warranty policy is proposed in this context. The optimal warranty length is obtained by maximizing an expected utility function. The expectation is taken with respect to the posterior predictive model for the time-to-failure data. It is observed that the non-linear pro-rata warranty policy gives a larger warranty length with maximum profit as compared to linear warranty policy. Finally, a real-data set is analyzed in order to illustrate the advantage of using non-linear pro-rata warranty policy.

econ.GN↗

Statistical inference and Bayesian optimal life-testing plans under Type-II unified hybrid censoring scheme

This article describes the inferential procedures and Bayesian optimal life-testing issues under Type-II unified hybrid censoring scheme. First, the explicit expressions of expected number of failures, expected duration of testing and Fisher information matrix for the unknown parameters of the underlying lifetime model are derived. Then, using these quantities, the Bayesian optimal life-testing plans are computed in subsequent section. A cost constraint D-optimal optimization problem has been formulated and the corresponding solution algorithm is provided to obtain optimal plans. Computational procedures are illustrated through numerical examples.

math.ST↗