arXiv subjects

Boleslaw K. Szymanski

Publications and source records attributed to Boleslaw K. Szymanski.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Become a better you: correlation between the change of research direction and the change of scientific performance

It is important to explore how scientists decide their research agenda and the corresponding consequences, as their decisions collectively shape contemporary science. There are studies focusing on the overall performance of individuals with different problem choosing strategies. Here we ask a slightly different but relatively unexplored question: how is a scientist's change of research agenda associated with her change of scientific performance. Using publication records of over 14,000 authors in physics, we quantitatively measure the extent of research direction change and the performance change of individuals. We identify a strong positive correlation between the direction change and impact change. Scientists with a larger direction change not only are more likely to produce works with increased scientific impact compared to their past ones, but also have a higher growth rate of scientific impact. On the other hand, the direction change is not associated with productivity change. Those who stay in familiar topics do not publish faster than those who venture out and establish themselves in a new field. The gauge of research direction in this work is uncorrelated with the diversity of research agenda and the switching probability among topics, capturing the evolution of individual careers from a new point of view. Though the finding is inevitably affected by the survival bias, it sheds light on a range of problems in the career development of individual scientists.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

An Algorithm for Reconstructing the Orphan Stream Progenitor with MilkyWay@home Volunteer Computing

We have developed a method for estimating the properties of the progenitor dwarf galaxy from the tidal stream of stars that were ripped from it as it fell into the Milky Way. In particular, we show that the mass and radial profile of a progenitor dwarf galaxy evolved along the orbit of the Orphan Stream, including the stellar and dark matter components, can be reconstructed from the distribution of stars in the tidal stream it produced. We use MilkyWay@home, a PetaFLOPS-scale distributed supercomputer, to optimize our dwarf galaxy parameters until we arrive at best-fit parameters. The algorithm fits the dark matter mass, dark matter radius, stellar mass, radial profile of stars, and orbital time. The parameters are recovered even though the dark matter component extends well past the half light radius of the dwarf galaxy progenitor, proving that we are able to extract information about the dark matter halos of dwarf galaxies from the tidal debris. Our simulations assumed that the Milky Way potential, dwarf galaxy orbit, and the form of the density model for the dwarf galaxy were known exactly; more work is required to evaluate the sources of systematic error in fitting real data. This method can be used to estimate the dark matter content in dwarf galaxies without the assumption of virial equilibrium that is required to estimate the mass using line-of-sight velocities. This demonstration is a first step towards building an infrastructure that will fit the Milky Way potential using multiple tidal streams.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

A Machine Learning Approach to Predicting Continuous Tie Strengths

Relationships between people constantly evolve, altering interpersonal behavior and defining social groups. Relationships between nodes in social networks can be represented by a tie strength, often empirically assessed using surveys. While this is effective for taking static snapshots of relationships, such methods are difficult to scale to dynamic networks. In this paper, we propose a system that allows for the continuous approximation of relationships as they evolve over time. We evaluate this system using the NetSense study, which provides comprehensive communication records of students at the University of Notre Dame over the course of four years. These records are complemented by semesterly ego network surveys, which provide discrete samples over time of each participant's true social tie strength with others. We develop a pair of powerful machine learning models (complemented by a suite of baselines extracted from past works) that learn from these surveys to interpret the communications records as signals. These signals represent dynamic tie strengths, accurately recording the evolution of relationships between the individuals in our social networks. With these evolving tie values, we are able to make several empirically derived observations which we compare to past works.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

The Paradox of Information Access: On Modeling Social-Media-Induced Polarization

The paper develops a stochastic model of drift in human beliefs that shows that today's sheer volume of accessible information, combined with consumers' confirmation bias and natural preference to more outlying content, necessarily lead to increased polarization. The model explains the paradox of growing ideological fragmentation in the age of increased sharing. As social media, search engines, and other real-time information sharing outlets purport to facilitate access to information, a need for content filtering arises due to the ensuing information overload. In general, consumers select information that matches their individual views and values. The bias inherent in such selection is echoed by today's information curation services that maximize user engagement by filtering new content in accordance with observed consumer preferences. Consequently, individuals get exposed to increasingly narrower bands of the ideology spectrum, thus fragmenting society into increasingly ideologically isolated enclaves. We call this dynamic the paradox of information access. The model also suggests the disproportionate damage attainable with a small infusion of well-positioned misinformation. The paper describes the modeling methodology, and evaluates modeling results for different population sizes and parameter settings.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Learning Parameters for Balanced Index Influence Maximization

Influence maximization is the task of finding the smallest set of nodes whose activation in a social network can trigger an activation cascade that reaches the targeted network coverage, where threshold rules determine the outcome of influence. This problem is NP-hard and it has generated a significant amount of recent research on finding efficient heuristics. We focus on a {\it Balance Index} algorithm that relies on three parameters to tune its performance to the given network structure. We propose using a supervised machine-learning approach for such tuning. We select the most influential graph features for the parameter tuning. Then, using random-walk-based graph-sampling, we create small snapshots from the given synthetic and large-scale real-world networks. Using exhaustive search, we find for these snapshots the high accuracy values of BI parameters to use as a ground truth. Then, we train our machine-learning model on the snapshots and apply this model to the real-word network to find the best BI parameters. We apply these parameters to the sampled real-world network to measure the quality of the sets of initiators found this way. We use various real-world networks to validate our approach against other heuristic.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Optimizing sensors placement in complex networks for localization of hidden signal source: A review

As the world becomes more and more interconnected, our everyday objects become part of the Internet of Things, and our lives get more and more mirrored in virtual reality, where every piece of~information, including misinformation, fake news and malware, can spread very fast practically anonymously. To suppress such uncontrolled spread, efficient computer systems and algorithms capable to~track down such malicious information spread have to be developed. Currently, the most effective methods for source localization are based on sensors which provide the times at which they detect the~spread. We investigate the problem of the optimal placement of such sensors in complex networks and propose a new graph measure, called Collective Betweenness, which we compare against four other metrics. Extensive numerical tests are performed on different types of complex networks over the wide ranges of densities of sensors and stochasticities of signal. In these tests, we discovered clear difference in comparative performance of the investigated optimal placement methods between real or scale-free synthetic networks versus narrow degree distribution networks. The former have a clear region for any given method's dominance in contrast to the latter where the performance maps are less homogeneous. We find that while choosing the best method is very network and spread dependent, there are two methods that consistently stand out. High Variance Observers seem to do very well for spread with low stochasticity whereas Collective Betwenness, introduced in this paper, thrives when the spread is highly unpredictable.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Heuristic assessment of the economic effects of pandemic control

Data-driven risk networks describe many complex system dynamics arising in fields such as epidemiology and ecology. They lack explicit dynamics and have multiple sources of cost, both of which are beyond the current scope of traditional control theory. We construct the global risk network by combining the consensus of experts from the World Economic Forum with risk activation data to define its topology and interactions. Many of these risks, including extreme weather, pose significant economic costs when active. We introduce a method for converting network interaction data into continuous dynamics to which we apply optimal control. We contribute the first method for constructing and controlling risk network dynamics based on empirically collected data. We identify seven risks commonly used by governments to control COVID-19 spread and show that many alternative driver risk sets exist with potentially lower cost of control.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Asymptotic resolution bounds of generalized modularity and multi-scale community detection

The maximization of generalized modularity performs well on networks in which the members of all communities are statistically indistinguishable from each other. However, there is no theory bounding the maximization performance in more realistic networks where edges are heterogeneously distributed within and between communities. Using the random graph properties, we establish asymptotic theoretical bounds on the resolution parameter for which the generalized modularity maximization performs well. From this new perspective on random graph model, we find the resolution limit of modularity maximization can be explained in a surprisingly simple and straightforward way. Given a network produced by the stochastic block models, the communities for which the resolution parameter is larger than their densities are likely to be spread among multiple clusters, while communities for which the resolution parameter is smaller than their background inter-community edge density will be merged into one large component. Therefore, no suitable resolution parameter exits when the intra-community edge density in a subgraph is lower than the inter-community edge density in some other subgraph. For such networks, we propose a progressive agglomerative heuristic algorithm to detect practically significant communities at multiple scales.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

The Paradox of Information Access: Growing Isolation in the Age of Sharing

Modern online media, such as Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube, enable anyone to become an information producer and to offer online content for potentially global consumption. By increasing the amount of globally accessible real-time information, today's ubiquitous producers contribute to a world, where an individual consumes vanishingly smaller fractions of all produced content. In general, consumers preferentially select information that closely matches their individual views and values. The bias inherent in such selection is further magnified by today's information curation services that maximize user engagement (and thus service revenue) by filtering new content in accordance with observed consumer preferences. Consequently, individuals get exposed to increasingly narrower bands of the ideology spectrum. Societies get fragmented into increasingly ideologically isolated enclaves. These enclaves (or echo-chambers) then become vulnerable to misinformation spread, which in turn further magnifies polarization and bias. We call this dynamic the paradox of information access; a growing ideological fragmentation in the age of sharing. This article describes the technical, economic, and socio-cognitive contributors to this paradox, and explores research directions towards its mitigation.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

On community structure in complex networks: challenges and opportunities

Community structure is one of the most relevant features encountered in numerous real-world applications of networked systems. Despite the tremendous effort of scientists working on this subject over the past few decades to characterize, model, and analyze communities, more investigations are needed to better understand the impact of community structure and its dynamics on networked systems. Here, we first focus on generative models of communities in complex networks and their role in developing strong foundation for community detection algorithms. We discuss modularity and the use of modularity maximization as the basis for community detection. Then, we overview the Stochastic Block Model, its different variants, and inference of community structures from such models. Next, we focus on time evolving networks, where existing nodes and links can disappear and/or new nodes and links may be introduced. The extraction of communities under such circumstances poses an interesting and non-trivial problem that has gained considerable interest over the last decade. We briefly discuss considerable advances made in this field recently. Finally, we focus on immunization strategies essential for targeting the influential spreaders of epidemics in modular networks. Their main goal is to select and immunize a small proportion of individuals from the whole network to control the diffusion process. Various strategies have emerged over the years suggesting different ways to immunize nodes in networks with overlapping and non-overlapping community structure. We first discuss stochastic strategies that require little or no information about the network topology at the expense of their performance. Then, we introduce deterministic strategies that have proven to be very efficient in controlling the epidemic outbreaks, but require complete knowledge of the network.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Supervised Learning of the Global Risk Network Activation from Media Event Reports

The World Economic Forum (WEF) publishes annual reports on global risks which have the high impact on the world's economy. Currently, many researchers analyze the modeling and evolution of risks. However, few studies focus on validation of the global risk networks published by the WEF. In this paper, we first create a risk knowledge graph from the annotated risk events crawled from the Wikipedia. Then, we compare the relational dependencies of risks in the WEF and Wikipedia networks, and find that they share over 50% of their edges. Moreover, the edges unique to each network signify the different perspectives of the experts and the public on global risks. To reduce the cost of manual annotation of events triggering risk activation, we build an auto-detection tool which filters out over 80% media reported events unrelated to the global risks. In the process of filtering, our tool also continuously learns keywords relevant to global risks from the event sentences. Using locations of events extracted from the risk knowledge graph, we find characteristics of geographical distributions of the categories of global risks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Modeling competitive evolution of multiple languages

Increasing evidence demonstrates that in many places language coexistence has become ubiquitous and essential for supporting language and cultural diversity and associated with its financial and economic benefits. The competitive evolution among multiple languages determines the evolution outcome, either coexistence, decline, or extinction. Here, we extend the Abrams-Strogatz model of language competition to multiple languages and then validate it by analyzing the behavioral transitions of language usage over the recent several decades in Singapore and Hong Kong. In each case, we estimate from data the model parameters that measure each language utility for its speakers and the strength of two biases, the majority preference for their language, and the minority aversion to it. The values of these two biases decide which language is the fastest growing in the competition and what would be the stable state of the system. We also study the system convergence time to stable states and discover the existence of tipping points with multiple attractors. Moreover, the critical slowdown of convergence to the stable fractions of language users appears near and peaks at the tipping points, signaling when the system approaches them. Our analysis furthers our understanding of multiple language evolution and the role of tipping points in behavioral transitions. These insights may help to protect languages from extinction and retain the language and cultural diversity.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Predicting complex user behavior from CDR based social networks

Call Detail Record (CDR) datasets provide enough information about personal interactions to support building and analyzing detailed empirical social networks. We take one such dataset and describe the various ways of using it to create a true social network in spite of the highly noisy data source. We use the resulting network to predict each individual's likelihood to default on payments for the network services, a complex behavior that involves a combination of social, economic, and legal considerations. We use a large number of features extracted from the network to build a model for predicting which users will default. By analyzing the relative contributions of features, we choose their best performing subsets ranging in size from small to medium. Features based on the number of close ties maintained by a user performed better than those derived from user's geographical location. The paper contributions include systematic impact analysis that the number of calls cutoff has on the properties of the network derived from CDR, and a methodology for building complex behavior models by creating very large sets of diverse features and systematically choosing those which perform best for the final model.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

The evolution of polarization in the legislative branch of government

The polarization of political opinions among members of the U.S. legislative chambers measured by their voting records is greater today than it was thirty years ago. Previous research efforts to find causes of such increase have suggested diverse contributors, like growth of online media, echo chamber effects, media biases, or disinformation propagation. Yet, we lack theoretic tools to understand, quantify, and predict the emergence of high political polarization among voters and their legislators. Here, we analyze millions of roll-call votes cast in the U.S. Congress over the past six decades. Our analysis reveals the critical change of polarization patterns that started at the end of 1980's. In earlier decades, polarization within each Congress tended to decrease with time. In contrast, in the recent decades, the polarization has been likely to grow within each term. To shed light on the reasons for this change, we introduce here a formal model for competitive dynamics to quantify the evolution of polarization patterns in the legislative branch of the U.S. government. Our model represents dynamics of polarization, enabling us to successfully predict the direction of polarization changes in 28 out of 30 U.S. Congresses elected in the past six decades. From the evolution of polarization level as measured by the Rice index, our model extracts a hidden parameter - polarization utility which determines the convergence point of the polarization evolution. The increase in the polarization utility implied by the model strongly correlates with two current trends: growing polarization of voters and increasing influence of election campaign funders. Two largest peaks of the model's polarization utility correlate with significant political or legislative changes happening at the same time.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Regularized Stochastic Block Model for robust community detection in complex networks

The stochastic block model is able to generate different network partitions, ranging from traditional assortative communities to disassortative structures. Since the degree-corrected stochastic block model does not specify which mixing pattern is desired, the inference algorithms, which discover the most likely partition of the networks nodes, are likely to get trapped in the local optima of the log-likelihood. Here we introduce a new model constraining nodes' internal degrees ratios in the objective function to stabilize the inference of block models from the observed network data. Given the regularized model, the inference algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, reliably finds assortative or disassortive structure as directed by the value of a single parameter. We show experimentally that the inference of our proposed model quickly converges to the desired assortative or disassortative partition while the inference of degree-corrected stochastic block model gets often trapped at the inferior local optimal partitions when the traditional assortative community structure is not strong in the observed networks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Scalable prediction of global online media news virality

News reports shape the public perception of the critical social, political and economical events around the world. Yet, the way in which emergent phenomena are reported in the news makes the early prediction of such phenomena a challenging task. We propose a scalable community-based probabilistic framework to model the spreading of news about events in online media. Our approach exploits the latent community structure in the global news media and uses the affiliation of the early adopters with a variety of communities to identify the events widely reported in the news at the early stage of their spread. The time complexity of our approach is linear in the number of news reports. It is also amenable to efficient parallelization. To demonstrate these features, the inference algorithm is parallelized for message passing paradigm and tested on RPI Advanced Multiprocessing Optimized System (AMOS), one of the fastest Blue Gene/Q supercomputers in the world. Thanks to the community-level features of the early adopters, the model gains an improvement of 20% in the early detection of the most massively reported events compared to the feature-based machine learning algorithm. Its parallelization scheme achieves orders of magnitude speedup.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Opinion Formation Threshold Estimates from Different Combinations of Social Media Data-Types

Passive consumption of a quantifiable amount of social media information related to a topic can cause individuals to form opinions. If a substantial amount of these individuals are motivated to take action from their recently established opinions, a movement or public opinion shift can be induced independent of the information's veracity. Given that social media is ubiquitous in modern society, it is imperative that we understand the threshold at which social media data results in opinion formation. The present study estimates population opinion formation thresholds by querying 2222 participants about the number of various social media data-types (i.e., images, videos, and/or messages) that they would need to passively consume to form opinions. Opinion formation is assessed across three dimensions, 1) data-type(s), 2) context, and 3) source. This work provides a theoretical basis for estimating the amount of data needed to influence a population through social media information.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Evolution of Threats in the Global Risk Network

With a steadily growing population and rapid advancements in technology, the global economy is increasing in size and complexity. This growth exacerbates global vulnerabilities and may lead to unforeseen consequences such as global pandemics fueled by air travel, cyberspace attacks, and cascading failures caused by the weakest link in a supply chain. Hence, a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms driving global network vulnerabilities is urgently needed. Developing methods for efficiently monitoring evolution of the global economy is essential to such understanding. Each year the World Economic Forum publishes an authoritative report on the state of the global economy and identifies risks that are likely to be active, impactful or contagious. Using a Cascading Alternating Renewal Process approach to model the dynamics of the global risk network, we are able to answer critical questions regarding the evolution of this network. To fully trace the evolution of the network we analyze the asymptotic state of risks (risk levels which would be reached in the long term if the risks were left unabated) given a snapshot in time, this elucidates the various challenges faced by the world community at each point in time. We also investigate the influence exerted by each risk on others. Results presented here are obtained through either quantitative analysis or computational simulations.

cs.SI↗