arXiv subjects

Boris Cule

Publications and source records attributed to Boris Cule.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data

Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child within three years - through a near-ideal setting for prediction: a data challenge where 147 researchers predicted births for Dutch residents aged 18-45, using survey data and full-population registers. Methods ranged from logistic regression to a large language model and transformers. Predictions were moderately accurate (best F1: register 0.59, survey 0.76); advanced models did not outperform classical ones; and the larger registers did not beat the survey. Simulating the stochastic biology of conception and pregnancy, we estimated a predictive ceiling (survey F1 ~ 0.86-0.94, register 0.88-0.96). Observed performance falls short of this ceiling, implicating imperfect data, methods, and unmodelled chance, while the ceiling itself shows that chance in reproduction alone sets a non-trivial limit on predicting individual lives.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

DT-PBO: an Interpretable Tree-based Surrogate Model for Preferential Bayesian Optimization

Preferential Bayesian Optimization (PBO) aims to find a decision-maker's most preferred solution in as few pairwise comparisons as possible. Existing approaches rely on Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates, which provide strong performance but limited interpretability. This limits real-world usability in high-stakes domains, such as healthcare, where interpretability and trust are essential. We propose DT-PBO, a novel tree-based surrogate model for PBO that is inherently interpretable while capturing preference uncertainty. Specifically, we introduce a novel splitting heuristic that constructs interpretable shallow decision trees directly from pairwise comparison data, and use Laplace approximation to obtain probabilistic estimates for each leaf. This enables efficient preference modeling without sacrificing interpretability. Across eight benchmark functions, our method achieves competitive convergence to GP-based PBO, particularly on functions with rugged optimization landscapes. Additional experiments show robustness against noise and a fast computational running time. Experiments on real-world datasets further demonstrate that our model provides interpretable insights into decision-maker preferences that would remain opaque under GP-based approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Efficient pattern-based anomaly detection in a network of multivariate devices

Many organisations manage service quality and monitor a large set devices and servers where each entity is associated with telemetry or physical sensor data series. Recently, various methods have been proposed to detect behavioural anomalies, however existing approaches focus on multivariate time series and ignore communication between entities. Moreover, we aim to support end-users in not only in locating entities and sensors causing an anomaly at a certain period, but also explain this decision. We propose a scalable approach to detect anomalies using a two-step approach. First, we recover relations between entities in the network, since relations are often dynamic in nature and caused by an unknown underlying process. Next, we report anomalies based on an embedding of sequential patterns. Pattern mining is efficient and supports interpretation, i.e. patterns represent frequent occurring behaviour in time series. We extend pattern mining to filter sequential patterns based on frequency, temporal constraints and minimum description length. We collect and release two public datasets for international broadcasting and X from an Internet company. \textit{BAD} achieves an overall F1-Score of 0.78 on 9 benchmark datasets, significantly outperforming the best baseline by 3\%. Additionally, \textit{BAD} is also an order-of-magnitude faster than state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Mining Closed Episodes with Simultaneous Events

Sequential pattern discovery is a well-studied field in data mining. Episodes are sequential patterns describing events that often occur in the vicinity of each other. Episodes can impose restrictions to the order of the events, which makes them a versatile technique for describing complex patterns in the sequence. Most of the research on episodes deals with special cases such as serial, parallel, and injective episodes, while discovering general episodes is understudied. In this paper we extend the definition of an episode in order to be able to represent cases where events often occur simultaneously. We present an efficient and novel miner for discovering frequent and closed general episodes. Such a task presents unique challenges. Firstly, we cannot define closure based on frequency. We solve this by computing a more conservative closure that we use to reduce the search space and discover the closed episodes as a postprocessing step. Secondly, episodes are traditionally presented as directed acyclic graphs. We argue that this representation has drawbacks leading to redundancy in the output. We solve these drawbacks by defining a subset relationship in such a way that allows us to remove the redundant episodes. We demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithm and the need for using closed episodes empirically on synthetic and real-world datasets.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2019

Mining Closed Strict Episodes

Discovering patterns in a sequence is an important aspect of data mining. One popular choice of such patterns are episodes, patterns in sequential data describing events that often occur in the vicinity of each other. Episodes also enforce in which order the events are allowed to occur. In this work we introduce a technique for discovering closed episodes. Adopting existing approaches for discovering traditional patterns, such as closed itemsets, to episodes is not straightforward. First of all, we cannot define a unique closure based on frequency because an episode may have several closed superepisodes. Moreover, to define a closedness concept for episodes we need a subset relationship between episodes, which is not trivial to define. We approach these problems by introducing strict episodes. We argue that this class is general enough, and at the same time we are able to define a natural subset relationship within it and use it efficiently. In order to mine closed episodes we define an auxiliary closure operator. We show that this closure satisfies the needed properties so that we can use the existing framework for mining closed patterns. Discovering the true closed episodes can be done as a post-processing step. We combine these observations into an efficient mining algorithm and demonstrate empirically its performance in practice.

cs.DB↗