arXiv subjects

Boris Ginzburg

Publications and source records attributed to Boris Ginzburg.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Troll Farms

We study how coordinated disinformation campaigns affect elections. We develop a constrained information design model in which a sender deploys uninformative messages that mimic voters' exogenous informative signals. Voters initially opposed to the sender's preferred outcome receive favourable messages, while those in favour are targeted with unfavourable messages to dilute adverse information. The sender's ability to manipulate political outcomes increases with greater precision of voters' independent signals, but decreases with polarisation. When messaging is costly, the sender may stop targeting marginally opposing voters while moderating message extremism among supporters.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2025

Fact-Finding in Social Networks

This paper models voters who invest effort to determine whether a particular claim relevant to their voting choices is correct. If a voter succeeds in determining whether the claim is correct, this information is shared via a social network. I show that increased connectivity makes voters more informed about basic facts, but less informed about complicated issues. At the same time, polarization makes voters less informed overall.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2025

A Flexible Measure of Voter Polarization

This paper introduces a definition of ideological polarization of an electorate around a particular central point. By being flexible about the location or width of the center, this measure enables the researcher to analyze polarization around any point of interest. The paper then applies this approach to US voter survey data between 2004 and 2020, showing how polarization between right-of-center voters and the rest of the electorate was increasing gradually, while polarization between left-wingers and the rest was originally constant and then rose steeply. It also shows how, following elections, polarization around left-wing positions decreased while polarization around right-wing positions increased. Furthermore, the paper shows how this measure can be used to find cleavage points around which polarization changed the most. I then show how ideological polarization as defined here is related to other phenomena, such as affective polarization and increased salience of divisive issues.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Comparing Electoral Polarization Levels

This paper introduces a definition of ideological polarization of an electorate around a particular central point. The definition is flexible about the location or boundaries of the center. Using US survey data, the paper shows how this approach can be used to establish whether polarization is occurring, and to find the position around which it is happening. I then show how ideological polarization as defined here is related to other phenomena, such as affective polarization and increased salience of divisive issues.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Voting behind the Veil of Ignorance

A committee consisting of two factions is considering a project whose distributive consequences are unknown. This uncertainty can be resolved at some unknown future time. By delaying approval, the committee can gradually learn which faction benefits from the project. Because support of both factions is required for approval, it can only happen when there is sufficient amount of uncertainty about the identities of winners and losers. I show that in many situations, a project is more likely to be approved if it gives a lower payoff to everyone. The probability of approval and expected payoffs of both factions are higher if the project is ex ante less likely to benefit the faction that tends to receive good news faster. Equilibrium amount of learning is excessive, and a deadline on adopting the project is often optimal.

econ.TH↗