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Boryana Hadzhiyska

Publications and source records attributed to Boryana Hadzhiyska.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Cosmology with 6 parameters in the Stage-IV era: efficient marginalisation over nuisance parameters

The analysis of photometric large-scale structure data is often complicated by the need to account for many observational and astrophysical systematics. The elaborate models needed to describe them often introduce many ``nuisance parameters'', which can be a major inhibitor of an efficient parameter inference. In this paper we introduce an approximate method to analytically marginalise over a large number of nuisance parameters based on the Laplace approximation. We discuss the mathematics of the method, its relation to concepts such as volume effects and profile likelihood, and show that it can be further simplified for calibratable systematics by linearising the dependence of the theory on the associated parameters. We quantify the accuracy of this approach by comparing it with traditional sampling methods in the context of existing data from the Dark Energy Survey, as well as futuristic Stage-IV photometric data. The linearised version of the method is able to obtain parameter constraints that are virtually equivalent to those found by exploring the full parameter space for a large number of calibratable nuisance parameters, while reducing the computation time by a factor 3-10. Furthermore, the non-linearised approach is able to analytically marginalise over a large number of parameters, returning constraints that are virtually indistinguishable from the brute-force method in most cases, accurately reproducing both the marginalised uncertainty on cosmological parameters, and the impact of volume effects associated with this marginalisation. We provide simple recipes to diagnose when the approximations made by the method fail and one should thus resort to traditional methods. The gains in sampling efficiency associated with this method enable the joint analysis of multiple surveys, typically hindered by the large number of nuisance parameters needed to describe them.

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Galaxy bias in the era of LSST: perturbative bias expansions

Upcoming imaging surveys will allow for high signal-to-noise measurements of galaxy clustering at small scales. In this work, we present the results of the LSST bias challenge, the goal of which is to compare the performance of different nonlinear galaxy bias models in the context of LSST Y10 data. Specifically, we compare two perturbative approaches, Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) and Eulerian PT (EPT) to two variants of Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT), with our fiducial implementation of these models including terms up to second order in the bias expansion as well as nonlocal bias and deviations from Poissonian stochasticity. We consider different simulated galaxy samples and test the performance of the bias models in a tomographic joint analysis of LSST-Y10-like galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy-lensing and cosmic shear. We find both HEFT methods as well as LPT and EPT combined with non-perturbative predictions for the matter power spectrum to yield unbiased constraints on cosmological parameters up to at least a maximal scale of $k_{\mathrm{max}}=0.4 \; \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ for all samples considered, even in the presence of assembly bias. While we find that we can reduce the complexity of the bias model for HEFT without compromising fit accuracy, this is not generally the case for the perturbative models. We find significant detections of non-Poissonian stochasticity in all cases considered, and our analysis shows evidence that small-scale galaxy clustering predominantly improves constraints on galaxy bias rather than cosmological parameters. These results therefore suggest that the systematic uncertainties associated with current nonlinear bias models are likely to be subdominant compared to other sources of error for tomographic analyses of upcoming photometric surveys, which bodes well for future galaxy clustering analyses using these high signal-to-noise data. [abridged]

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NANCY: Next-generation All-sky Near-infrared Community surveY

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is capable of delivering an unprecedented all-sky, high-spatial resolution, multi-epoch infrared map to the astronomical community. This opportunity arises in the midst of numerous ground- and space-based surveys that will provide extensive spectroscopy and imaging together covering the entire sky (such as Rubin/LSST, Euclid, UNIONS, SPHEREx, DESI, SDSS-V, GALAH, 4MOST, WEAVE, MOONS, PFS, UVEX, NEO Surveyor, etc.). Roman can uniquely provide uniform high-spatial-resolution (~0.1 arcsec) imaging over the entire sky, vastly expanding the science reach and precision of all of these near-term and future surveys. This imaging will not only enhance other surveys, but also facilitate completely new science. By imaging the full sky over two epochs, Roman can measure the proper motions for stars across the entire Milky Way, probing 100 times fainter than Gaia out to the very edge of the Galaxy. Here, we propose NANCY: a completely public, all-sky survey that will create a high-value legacy dataset benefiting innumerable ongoing and forthcoming studies of the universe. NANCY is a pure expression of Roman's potential: it images the entire sky, at high spatial resolution, in a broad infrared bandpass that collects as many photons as possible. The majority of all ongoing astronomical surveys would benefit from incorporating observations of NANCY into their analyses, whether these surveys focus on nearby stars, the Milky Way, near-field cosmology, or the broader universe.

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The DESI One-Percent Survey: Exploring the Halo Occupation Distribution of Luminous Red Galaxies and Quasi-Stellar Objects with AbacusSummit

We present the first comprehensive Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) analysis of the DESI One-Percent survey Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) and Quasi-Stellar Object (QSO) samples. We constrain the HOD of each sample and test possible HOD extensions by fitting the redshift-space galaxy 2-point correlation functions in 0.15 < r < 32 Mpc/h in a set of fiducial redshift bins. We use AbacusSummit cubic boxes at Planck 2018 cosmology as model templates and forward model galaxy clustering with the AbacusHOD package. We achieve good fits with a standard HOD model with velocity bias, and we find no evidence for galaxy assembly bias or satellite profile modulation at the current level of statistical uncertainty. For LRGs in 0.4 < z < 0.6, we infer a satellite fraction of fsat = 11+-1%, a mean halo mass of log10 Mh = 13.40+0.02-0.02, and a linear bias of blin = 1.93+0.06-0.04. For LRGs in 0.6 < z < 0.8, we find fsat = 14+-1%, log10 Mh = 13.24+0.02-0.02, and blin = 2.08+0.03-0.03. For QSOs, we infer fsat = 3+8-2%, log10 Mh = 12.65+0.09-0.04, and blin = 2.63+0.37-0.26 in redshift range 0.8 < z < 2.1. Using these fits, we generate a large suite of high-fidelity galaxy mocks. We also study the redshift-evolution of the DESI LRG sample from z = 0.4 up to z = 1.1, revealing significant and interesting trends in mean halo mass, linear bias, and satellite fraction.

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Synthetic light cone catalogues of modern redshift and weak lensing surveys with AbacusSummit

The joint analysis of different cosmological probes, such as galaxy clustering and weak lensing, can potentially yield invaluable insights into the nature of the primordial Universe, dark energy and dark matter. However, the development of high-fidelity theoretical models that cover a wide range of scales and redshifts is a necessary stepping-stone. Here, we present public high-resolution weak lensing maps on the light cone, generated using the $N$-body simulation suite AbacusSummit in the Born approximation, and accompanying weak lensing mock catalogues, tuned via fits to the Early Data Release small-scale clustering measurements of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Available in this release are maps of the cosmic shear, deflection angle and convergence fields at source redshifts ranging from $z = 0.15$ to 2.45 with $Δz = 0.05$ as well as CMB convergence maps ($z \approx 1090$) for each of the 25 ${\tt base}$-resolution simulations ($L_{\rm box} = 2000\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$, $N_{\rm part} = 6912^3$) as well as for the two ${\tt huge}$ simulations ($L_{\rm box} = 7500\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$, $N_{\rm part} = 8640^3$) at the fiducial AbacusSummit cosmology ($Planck$ 2018). The pixel resolution of each map is 0.21 arcmin, corresponding to a HEALPiX $N_{\rm side}$ of 16384. The sky coverage of the ${\tt base}$ simulations is an octant until $z \approx 0.8$ (decreasing to about 1800 deg$^2$ at $z \approx 2.4$), whereas the ${\tt huge}$ simulations offer full-sky coverage until $z \approx 2.2$. Mock lensing source catalogues are sampled matching the ensemble properties of the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey, and Hyper-Suprime Cam weak lensing datasets. The produced mock catalogues are validated against theoretical predictions for various clustering and lensing statistics such as galaxy clustering multipoles, galaxy-shear and shear-shear, showing excellent agreement.

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Planting a Lyman alpha forest on AbacusSummit

The full-shape correlations of the Lyman alpha (Ly$α$) forest contain a wealth of cosmological information through the Alcock-Paczyński effect. However, these measurements are challenging to model without robustly testing and verifying the theoretical framework used for analyzing them. Here, we leverage the accuracy and volume of the $N$-body simulation suite \textsc{AbacusSummit} to generate high-resolution Ly$α$ skewers and quasi-stellar object (QSO) catalogs. One of the main goals of our mocks is to aid in the full-shape Ly$α$ analysis planned by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) team. We provide optical depth skewers for six of the fiducial cosmology base-resolution simulations ($L_{\rm box} = 2\,h^{-1}{\rm Gpc}$, $N = 6912^3$) at $z = 2.5$. We adopt a simple recipe based on the Fluctuating Gunn-Peterson Approximation (FGPA) for constructing these skewers from the matter density in an $N$-body simulation and calibrate it against the 1D and 3D Ly$α$ power spectra extracted from the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG (TNG; $L_{\rm box} = 205\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$, $N = 2500^3$). As an important application, we study the non-linear broadening of the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) peak and show the cross-correlation between DESI-like QSOs and our Ly$α$ forest skewers. We find differences on small scales between the Kaiser approximation prediction and our mock measurements of the Ly$α$$\times$QSO cross-correlation, which would be important to account for in upcoming analyses. The \textsc{AbacusSummit} Ly$α$ forest mocks open up the possibility for improved modelling of cross correlations between Ly$α$ and cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing and Ly$α$ and QSOs, and for forecasts of the 3-point Ly$α$ correlation function. Our catalogues and skewers are publicly available on Globus.

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Interpreting Sunyaev-Zel'dovich observations with MillenniumTNG: Mass and environment scaling relations

In the coming years, Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) measurements can dramatically improve our understanding of the Intergalactic Medium (IGM) and the role of feedback processes on galaxy formation, allowing us to calibrate important astrophysical systematics in cosmological constraints from weak lensing galaxy clustering surveys. However, the signal is only measured in a two-dimensional projection, and its correct interpretation relies on understanding the connection between observable quantities and the underlying intrinsic properties of the gas, in addition to the relation between the gas and the underlying matter distribution. One way to address these challenges is through the use of hydrodynamical simulations such as the high-resolution, large-volume MillenniumTNG suite. We find that measurements of the optical depth, $τ$, and the Compton-y parameter, $Y$, receive large line-of-sight contributions which can be removed effectively by applying a Compensated Aperture Photometry (CAP) filter. In contrast with other $τ$ probes (e.g., X-rays and Fast Radio Bursts), the kSZ-inferred $τ$ receives most of its signal from a confined cylindrical region around the halo due to the velocity decorrelation along the line-of-sight. Additionally, we perform fits to the $Y-M$ and $τ-M$ scaling relations and report best-fit parameters adopting the smoothly broken power law (SBPL) formalism. We note that subgrid physics modeling can broaden the error bar on these by 30\% for intermediate-mass halos ($\sim$$10^{13} \, {\rm M}_{\odot}$). The scatter of the scaling relations can be captured by an intrinsic dependence on concentration, and an extrinsic dependence on tidal shear. Finally, we comment on the effect of using galaxies rather than halos in real observations, which can bias the inferred SZ profiles by $\sim$20\% for $L_\ast$-galaxies.

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The MillenniumTNG Project: The large-scale clustering of galaxies

Modern redshift surveys are tasked with mapping out the galaxy distribution over enormous distance scales. Existing hydrodynamical simulations, however, do not reach the volumes needed to match upcoming surveys. We present results for the clustering of galaxies using a new, large volume hydrodynamical simulation as part of the MillenniumTNG (MTNG) project. With a computational volume that is $\approx15$ times larger than the next largest such simulation currently available, we show that MTNG is able to accurately reproduce the observed clustering of galaxies as a function of stellar mass. When separated by colour, there are some discrepancies with respect to the observed population, which can be attributed to the quenching of satellite galaxies in our model. We combine MTNG galaxies with those generated using a semi-analytic model to emulate the sample selection of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) and emission line galaxies (ELGs), and show that although the bias of these populations is approximately (but not exactly) constant on scales larger than $\approx10$ Mpc, there is significant scale-dependent bias on smaller scales. The amplitude of this effect varies between the two galaxy types, and also between the semi-analytic model and MTNG. We show that this is related to the distribution of haloes hosting LRGs and ELGs. Using mock SDSS-like catalogues generated on MTNG lightcones, we demonstrate the existence of prominent baryonic acoustic features in the large-scale galaxy clustering. We also demonstrate the presence of realistic redshift space distortions in our mocks, finding excellent agreement with the multipoles of the redshift-space clustering measured in SDSS data.

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The MillenniumTNG Project: High-precision predictions for matter clustering and halo statistics

Cosmological inference with large galaxy surveys requires theoretical models that combine precise predictions for large-scale structure with robust and flexible galaxy formation modelling throughout a sufficiently large cosmic volume. Here, we introduce the MillenniumTNG (MTNG) project which combines the hydrodynamical galaxy formation model of IllustrisTNG with the large volume of the Millennium simulation. Our largest hydrodynamic simulation, covering (500 Mpc/h)^3 = (740 Mpc)^3, is complemented by a suite of dark-matter-only simulations with up to 4320^3 dark matter particles (a mass resolution of 1.32 x 10^8 Msun/h) using the fixed-and-paired technique to reduce large-scale cosmic variance. The hydro simulation adds 4320^3 gas cells, achieving a baryonic mass resolution of 2 x 10^7 Msun/h. High time-resolution merger trees and direct lightcone outputs facilitate the construction of a new generation of semi-analytic galaxy formation models that can be calibrated against both the hydro simulation and observation, and then applied to even larger volumes - MTNG includes a flagship simulation with 1.1 trillion dark matter particles and massive neutrinos in a volume of (3000 Mpc)^3. In this introductory analysis we carry out convergence tests on basic measures of non-linear clustering such as the matter power spectrum, the halo mass function and halo clustering, and we compare simulation predictions to those from current cosmological emulators. We also use our simulations to study matter and halo statistics, such as halo bias and clustering at the baryonic acoustic oscillation scale. Finally we measure the impact of baryonic physics on the matter and halo distributions.

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The MillenniumTNG Project: The galaxy population at $z\geq 8$

The early release science results from $\textit{JWST}$ have yielded an unexpected abundance of high-redshift luminous galaxies that seems to be in tension with current theories of galaxy formation. However, it is currently difficult to draw definitive conclusions form these results as the sources have not yet been spectroscopically confirmed. It is in any case important to establish baseline predictions from current state-of-the-art galaxy formation models that can be compared and contrasted with these new measurements. In this work, we use the new large-volume ($L_\mathrm{box}\sim 740 \, \mathrm{cMpc}$) hydrodynamic simulation of the MillenniumTNG project, suitably scaled to match results from higher resolution - smaller volume simulations, to make predictions for the high-redshift ($z\gtrsim8$) galaxy population and compare them to recent $\textit{JWST}$ observations. We show that the simulated galaxy population is broadly consistent with observations until $z\sim10$. From $z\approx10-12$, the observations indicate a preference for a galaxy population that is largely dust-free, but is still consistent with the simulations. Beyond $z\gtrsim12$, however, our simulation results underpredict the abundance of luminous galaxies and their star-formation rates by almost an order of magnitude. This indicates either an incomplete understanding of the new $\textit{JWST}$ data or a need for more sophisticated galaxy formation models that account for additional physical processes such as Population~III stars, variable stellar initial mass functions, or even deviations from the standard $Λ$CDM model. We emphasise that any new process invoked to explain this tension should only significantly influence the galaxy population beyond $z\gtrsim10$, while leaving the successful galaxy formation predictions of the fiducial model intact below this redshift.

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Analytical marginalisation over photometric redshift uncertainties in cosmic shear analyses

As the statistical power of imaging surveys grows, it is crucial to account for all systematic uncertainties. This is normally done by constructing a model of these uncertainties and then marginalizing over the additional model parameters. The resulting high dimensionality of the total parameter spaces makes inferring the cosmological parameters significantly more costly using traditional Monte-Carlo sampling methods. A particularly relevant example is the redshift distribution, $p(z)$, of the source samples, which may require tens of parameters to describe fully. However, relatively tight priors can be usually placed on these parameters through calibration of the associated systematics. In this paper we show, quantitatively, that a linearisation of the theoretical prediction with respect to these calibratable systematic parameters allows us to analytically marginalise over these extra parameters, leading to a factor $\sim30$ reduction in the time needed for parameter inference, while accurately recovering the same posterior distributions for the cosmological parameters that would be obtained through a full numerical marginalisation over 160 $p(z)$ parameters. We demonstrate that this is feasible not only with current data and current achievable calibration priors but also for future Stage-IV datasets.

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Full forward model of galaxy clustering statistics with AbacusSummit lightcones

Novel summary statistics beyond the standard 2-point correlation function (2PCF) are necessary to capture the full astrophysical and cosmological information from the small-scale (r < 30Mpc/h) galaxy clustering. However, the analysis of beyond-2PCF statistics on small scales is challenging because we lack the appropriate treatment of observational systematics for arbitrary summary statistics of the galaxy field. In this paper, we develop a full forward modeling pipeline for a wide range of summary statistics using the large high-fidelity AbacusSummit lightcones that accounts for many systematic effects but also remains flexible and computationally efficient to enable posterior sampling. We apply our forward model approach to a fully realistic mock galaxy catalog and demonstrate that we can recover unbiased constraints on the underlying galaxy-halo connection model using two separate summary statistics: the standard 2PCF and the novel k-th nearest neighbor (kNN) statistics, which are sensitive to correlation functions of all orders. We will extend this method to a full cosmology emulator in a follow up paper. We expect this to become a powerful approach when applying to upcoming surveys such as DESI where we can leverage a multitude of summary statistics across a wide redshift range to maximally extract information from the non-linear scales.

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Combining cosmic shear data with correlated photo-$z$ uncertainties: constraints from DESY1 and HSC-DR1

An accurate calibration of the source redshift distribution $p(z)$ is a key aspect in the analysis of cosmic shear data. This, one way or another, requires the use of spectroscopic or high-quality photometric samples. However, the difficulty to obtain colour-complete spectroscopic samples matching the depth of weak lensing catalogs means that the analyses of different cosmic shear datasets often use the same samples for redshift calibration. This introduces a source of statistical and systematic uncertainty that is highly correlated across different weak lensing datasets, and which must be accurately characterised and propagated in order to obtain robust cosmological constraints from their combination. In this paper we introduce a method to quantify and propagate the uncertainties on the source redshift distribution in two different surveys sharing the same calibrating sample. The method is based on an approximate analytical marginalisation of the $p(z)$ statistical uncertainties and the correlated marginalisation of residual systematics. We apply this method to the combined analysis of cosmic shear data from the DESY1 data release and the HSC-DR1 data, using the COSMOS 30-band catalog as a common redshift calibration sample. We find that, although there is significant correlation in the uncertainties on the redshift distributions of both samples, this does not change the final constraints on cosmological parameters significantly. The same is true also for the impact of residual systematic uncertainties from the errors in the COSMOS 30-band photometric redshifts. Additionally, we show that these effects will still be negligible in Stage-IV datasets. Finally, the combination of DESY1 and HSC-DR1 allows us to constrain the ``clumpiness'' parameter to $S_8 = 0.768^{+0.021}_{-0.017}$. This corresponds to a $\sim\sqrt{2}$ improvement in uncertainties with respect to either DES or HSC alone.

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The MillenniumTNG Project: Inferring cosmology from galaxy clustering with accelerated N-body scaling and subhalo abundance matching

We introduce a novel technique for constraining cosmological parameters and galaxy assembly bias using non-linear redshift-space clustering of galaxies. We scale cosmological N-body simulations and insert galaxies with the SubHalo Abundance Matching extended (SHAMe) empirical model to generate over 175,000 clustering measurements spanning all relevant cosmological and SHAMe parameter values. We then build an emulator capable of reproducing the projected galaxy correlation function at the monopole, quadrupole and hexadecapole level for separations between $0.1\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ and $25\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$. We test this approach by using the emulator and Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) inference to jointly estimate cosmology and assembly bias parameters both for the MTNG740 hydrodynamic simulation and for a semi-analytical galaxy formation model (SAM) built on the MTNG740-DM dark matter-only simulation, obtaining unbiased results for all cosmological parameters. For instance, for MTNG740 and a galaxy number density of $n\sim 0.01 h^{3}{\rm Mpc}^{-3}$, we obtain $σ_{8}=0.799^{+0.039}_{-0.044}$ ($σ_{8,{\rm MTNG}} =$ 0.8159), and $Ω_\mathrm{M}h^2= 0.138^{+ 0.025}_{- 0.018}$ ($Ω_{\mathrm{M}} h^2_{\rm MTNG} =$ 0.142). For fixed Hubble parameter ($h$), the constraint becomes $Ω_\mathrm{M}h^2= 0.137^{+ 0.011}_{- 0.012}$. Our method performs similarly well for the SAM and for other tested sample densities. We almost always recover the true amount of galaxy assembly bias within one sigma. The best constraints are obtained when scales smaller than $2\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ are included, as well as when at least the projected correlation function and the monopole are incorporated. These methods offer a powerful way to constrain cosmological parameters using galaxy surveys.

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The MillenniumTNG Project: The hydrodynamical full physics simulation and a first look at its galaxy clusters

Cosmological simulations are an important theoretical pillar for understanding nonlinear structure formation in our Universe and for relating it to observations on large scales. In several papers, we introduce our MillenniumTNG (MTNG) project that provides a comprehensive set of high-resolution, large volume simulations of cosmic structure formation aiming to better understand physical processes on large scales and to help interpreting upcoming large-scale galaxy surveys. We here focus on the full physics box MTNG740 that computes a volume of $(740\,\mathrm{Mpc})^3$ with a baryonic mass resolution of $3.1\times~10^7\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$ using \textsc{arepo} with $80.6$~billion cells and the IllustrisTNG galaxy formation model. We verify that the galaxy properties produced by MTNG740 are consistent with the TNG simulations, including more recent observations. We focus on galaxy clusters and analyse cluster scaling relations and radial profiles. We show that both are broadly consistent with various observational constraints. We demonstrate that the SZ-signal on a deep lightcone is consistent with Planck limits. Finally, we compare MTNG740 clusters with galaxy clusters found in Planck and the SDSS-8 RedMaPPer richness catalogue in observational space, finding very good agreement as well. However, {\it simultaneously} matching cluster masses, richness, and Compton-$y$ requires us to assume that the SZ mass estimates for Planck clusters are underestimated by $0.2$~dex on average. Thanks to its unprecedented volume for a high-resolution hydrodynamical calculation, the MTNG740 simulation offers rich possibilities to study baryons in galaxies, galaxy clusters, and in large scale structure, and in particular their impact on upcoming large cosmological surveys.

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The MillenniumTNG Project: Refining the one-halo model of red and blue galaxies at different redshifts

Luminous red galaxies (LRGs) and blue star-forming emission-line galaxies (ELGs) are key tracers of large-scale structure used by cosmological surveys. Theoretical predictions for such data are often done via simplistic models for the galaxy-halo connection. In this work, we use the large, high-fidelity hydrodynamical simulation of the MillenniumTNG project (MTNG) to inform a new phenomenological approach for obtaining an accurate and flexible galaxy-halo model on small scales. Our aim is to study LRGs and ELGs at two distinct epochs, $z = 1$ and $z = 0$, and recover their clustering down to very small scales, $r \sim 0.1 \ {\rm Mpc}/h$, i.e. the one-halo regime, while a companion paper extends this to a two-halo model for larger distances. The occupation statistics of ELGs in MTNG inform us that: (1) the satellite occupations exhibit a slightly super-Poisson distribution, contrary to commonly made assumptions, and (2) that haloes containing at least one ELG satellite are twice as likely to host a central ELG. We propose simple recipes for modeling these effects, each of which calls for the addition of a single free parameter to simpler halo occupation models. To construct a reliable satellite population model, we explore the LRG and ELG satellite radial and velocity distributions and compare them with those of subhalos and particles in the simulation. We find that ELGs are anisotropically distributed within halos, which together with our occupation results provides strong evidence for cooperative galaxy formation (manifesting itself as one-halo galaxy conformity); i.e.~galaxies with similar properties form in close proximity to each other. Our refined galaxy-halo model represents a useful improvement of commonly used analysis tools and thus can be of help to increase the constraining power of large-scale structure surveys.

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The MillenniumTNG Project: An improved two-halo model for the galaxy-halo connection of red and blue galaxies

Approximate methods to populate dark matter halos with galaxies are of great utility to large galaxy surveys. However, the limitations of simple halo occupation models (HODs) preclude a full use of small-scale galaxy clustering data and call for more sophisticated models. We study two galaxy populations, luminous red galaxies (LRGs) and star-forming emission-line galaxies (ELGs), at two epochs, $z=1$ and $z=0$, in the large volume, high-resolution hydrodynamical simulation of the MillenniumTNG project. In a partner study we concentrated on the small-scale, one-halo regime down to $r\sim 0.1{\rm Mpc}/h$, while here we focus on modeling galaxy assembly bias in the two-halo regime, $r\gtrsim 1{\rm Mpc}/h$. Interestingly, the ELG signal exhibits scale dependence out to relatively large scales ($r\sim 20{\rm Mpc}/h$), implying that the linear bias approximation for this tracer is invalid on these scales, contrary to common assumptions. The 10-15\% discrepancy present in the standard halo model prescription is only reconciled when we augment our halo occupation model with a dependence on extrinsic halo properties ("shear" being the best-performing one) rather than intrinsic ones (e.g., concentration, peak mass). We argue that this fact constitutes evidence for two-halo galaxy conformity. Including tertiary assembly bias (i.e. a property beyond mass and "shear") is not an essential requirement for reconciling the galaxy assembly bias signal of LRGs, but the combination of external and internal properties is beneficial for recovering ELG the clustering. We find that centrals in low-mass haloes dominate the assembly bias signal of both populations. Finally, we explore the predictions of our model for higher-order statistics such as nearest-neighbor counts. The latter supplies additional information about galaxy assembly bias and can be used to break degeneracies between halo model parameters.

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Modeling the galaxy-halo connection with machine learning

To extract information from the clustering of galaxies on non-linear scales, we need to model the connection between galaxies and halos accurately and in a flexible manner. Standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) models make the assumption that the galaxy occupation in a halo is a function of only its mass, however, in reality, the occupation can depend on various other parameters including halo concentration, assembly history, environment, spin, etc. Using the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamic simulation as our target, we show that machine learning tools can be used to capture this high-dimensional dependence and provide more accurate galaxy occupation models. Specifically, we use a random forest regressor to identify which secondary halo parameters best model the galaxy-halo connection and symbolic regression to augment the standard HOD model with simple equations capturing the dependence on those parameters, namely the local environmental overdensity and shear, at the location of a halo. This not only provides insights into the galaxy-formation relationship but, more importantly, improves the clustering statistics of the modeled galaxies significantly. Our approach demonstrates that machine learning tools can help us better understand and model the galaxy-halo connection, and are therefore useful for galaxy formation and cosmology studies from upcoming galaxy surveys.

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