arXiv subjects

Bradford J. Foley

Publications and source records attributed to Bradford J. Foley.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Smaller Than Earth Habitability Model (STEHM): The Lower Size Limit for Atmosphere Retention in the Habitable Zone

With recent advances in exoplanet observational techniques enabling the discovery of increasingly smaller planets, a crucial question emerges in the search for habitable planets: how small can a planet be and still maintain an atmosphere? We present results from the Smaller Than Earth Habitability Model (STEHM) which examines how small a planet can be and still maintain a long-term (multi-gigayear) atmosphere for planets from 1.0$R_\oplus$ down to 0.5$R_\oplus$. The model is based on a stagnant lid planet orbiting within the habitable zone of a sun-like star. Our model demonstrates that planets $\geq$0.8$R_\oplus$ can maintain their atmospheres under our Earth-like default conditions for a solar analog star, while smaller planets lose their atmospheres. Variations from the default Earth-like values cause mostly minor variations to the planet size boundary results, with some changes allowing $\geq$0.7$R_\oplus$ planets to maintain their atmosphere. Initial carbon inventory emerges as the most influential parameter for atmospheric retention, though orders of magnitude difference to Earth values are required to make a significant difference to longevity of atmospheric retention. Planets with substantial initial carbon content, large amounts of heat producing elements, cool initial mantle temperatures and low core radius fractions show the best atmospheric retention capabilities. Our results indicate that atmospheric retention on small planets depends strongly on their formation conditions and early evolution, providing important constraints for future observations of rocky exoplanets and their potential habitability.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

The early Earth as an analogue for exoplanetary biogeochemistry

Planet Earth has evolved from an entirely anoxic planet with possibly a different tectonic regime to the oxygenated world with horizontal plate tectonics that we know today. For most of this time, Earth has been inhabited by a purely microbial biosphere albeit with seemingly increasing complexity over time. A rich record of this geobiological evolution over most of Earth's history provides insights into the remote detectability of microbial life under a variety of planetary conditions. We leverage Earth's geobiological record with the aim of a) illustrating the current state of knowledge and key knowledge gaps about the early Earth as a reference point in exoplanet science research; b) compiling biotic and abiotic mechanisms that controlled the evolution of the atmosphere over time; and c) reviewing current constraints on the detectability of Earth's early biosphere with state-of-the-art telescope technology. We highlight that life may have originated on a planet with a different tectonic regime and strong hydrothermal activity, and under these conditions, biogenic CH$_4$ gas was perhaps the most detectable atmospheric biosignature. Oxygenic photosynthesis, which is responsible for essentially all O$_2$ gas in the modern atmosphere, appears to have emerged concurrently with the establishment of modern plate tectonics and the continental crust, but O$_2$ accumulation to modern levels only occurred late in Earth's history, perhaps tied to the rise of land plants. Nutrient limitation in anoxic oceans, promoted by hydrothermal Fe = fluxes, may have limited biological productivity and O$_2$ production. N$_2$O is an alternative biosignature that was perhaps significant on the redox-stratified Proterozoic Earth. We conclude that the detectability of atmospheric biosignatures on Earth was not only dependent on biological evolution but also strongly controlled by the evolving tectonic context.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Exoplanet Geology: What can we learn from current and future observations?

Nearly 30 years after the discovery of the first exoplanet around a main sequence star, thousands of planets have now been confirmed. These discoveries have completely revolutionized our understanding of planetary systems, revealing types of planets that do not exist in our solar system but are common in extrasolar systems, and a wide range of system architectures. Our solar system is clearly not the default for planetary systems. The community is now moving beyond basic characterization of exoplanets (mass, radius, and orbits) towards a deeper characterization of their atmospheres and even surfaces. With improved observational capabilities there is potential to now probe the geology of rocky exoplanets; this raises the possibility of an analogous revolution in our understanding of rocky planet evolution. However, characterizing the geology or geological processes occurring on rocky exoplanets is a major challenge, even with next generation telescopes. This chapter reviews what we may be able to accomplish with these efforts in the near-term and long-term. In the near-term, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is revealing which rocky planets lose versus retain their atmospheres. This chapter discusses the implications of such discoveries, including how even planets with no or minimal atmospheres can still provide constraints on surface geology and long-term geological evolution. Longer-term possibilities are then reviewed, including whether the hypothesis of climate stabilization by the carbonate-silicate cycle can be tested by next generation telescopes. New modeling strategies sweeping through ranges of possibly evolutionary scenarios will be needed to use the current and future observations to constrain rocky exoplanet geology and evolution.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

The Carbon-Deficient Evolution of TRAPPIST-1c

Transiting planets orbiting M dwarfs provide the best opportunity to study the atmospheres of rocky planets with current facilities. As JWST enters its second year of science operations, an important initial endeavor is to determine whether these rocky planets have atmospheres at all. M dwarf host stars are thought to pose a major threat to planetary atmospheres due to their high magnetic activity over several billion-year timescales, and might completely strip atmospheres. Several Cycle 1 and 2 GO and GTO programs are testing this hypothesis, observing a series of rocky planets to determine whether they retained their atmospheres. A key case-study is TRAPPIST-1c, which receives almost the same bolometric flux as Venus. We might, therefore, expect TRAPPIST-1c to possess a thick, $\mathrm{CO}_2$-dominated atmosphere. Instead, Zieba et al. (2023) show that TRAPPIST-1c has little to no CO$_2$ in its atmosphere. To interpret these results, we run coupled time-dependent simulations of planetary outgassing and atmospheric escape to model the evolution of TRAPPIST-1c's atmosphere. We find that the stellar wind stripping that is expected to occur on TRAPPIST-1c over its lifetime can only remove up to $\sim 16$ bar of $\mathrm{CO}_2$, less than the modern $\mathrm{CO}_2$ inventory of either Earth or Venus. Therefore, we infer that TRAPPIST-1c either formed volatile-poor, as compared to Earth and Venus, or lost a substantial amount of $\mathrm{CO}_2$ during an early phase of hydrodynamic hydrogen escape. Finally, we scale our results for the other TRAPPIST-1 planets, finding that the more distant TRAPPIST-1 planets may readily retain atmospheres.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Synergies between Venus & Exoplanetary Observations

In this chapter we examine how our knowledge of present day Venus can inform terrestrial exoplanetary science and how exoplanetary science can inform our study of Venus. In a superficial way the contrasts in knowledge appear stark. We have been looking at Venus for millennia and studying it via telescopic observations for centuries. Spacecraft observations began with Mariner 2 in 1962 when we confirmed that Venus was a hothouse planet, rather than the tropical paradise science fiction pictured. As long as our level of exploration and understanding of Venus remains far below that of Mars, major questions will endure. On the other hand, exoplanetary science has grown leaps and bounds since the discovery of Pegasus 51b in 1995, not too long after the golden years of Venus spacecraft missions came to an end with the Magellan Mission in 1994. Multi-million to billion dollar/euro exoplanet focused spacecraft missions such as JWST, and its successors will be flown in the coming decades. At the same time, excitement about Venus exploration is blooming again with a number of confirmed and proposed missions in the coming decades from India, Russia, Japan, the European Space Agency and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. In this chapter, we review what is known and what we may discover tomorrow in complementary studies of Venus and its exoplanetary cousins.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Mantle Degassing Lifetimes through Galactic Time and the Maximum Age Stagnant-lid Rocky Exoplanets can Support Temperate Climates

The ideal exoplanets to search for life are those within a star's habitable zone. However, even within the habitable zone planets can still develop uninhabitable climate states. Sustaining a temperate climate over geologic ($\sim$Gyr) timescales requires a planet contain sufficient internal energy to power a planetary-scale carbon cycle. A major component of a rocky planet's energy budget is the heat produced by the decay of radioactive elements, especially $^{40}$K, $^{232}$Th, $^{235}$U and $^{238}$U. As the planet ages and these elements decay, this radiogenic energy source dwindles. Here we estimate the probability distribution of the amount of these heat producing elements (HPEs) that enter into rocky exoplanets through Galactic history, by combining the system-to-system variation seen in stellar abundance data with the results from Galactic chemical evolution models. Using these distributions, we perform Monte-Carlo thermal evolution models that maximize the mantle cooling rate. This allows us to create a pessimistic estimate of lifetime a rocky, stagnant-lid exoplanet can support a global carbon cycle and temperate climate as a function of its mass and when it in Galactic history. We apply this framework to a sample of 17 likely rocky exoplanets with measured ages, 7 of which we predict are likely to be actively degassing today despite our pessimistic assumptions. For the remaining planets, including those orbiting TRAPPIST-1, we cannot confidently assume they currently contain sufficient internal heat to support mantle degassing at a rate sufficient to sustain a global carbon cycle or temperate climate without additional tidal heating or undergoing plate tectonics.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Orbital Dynamics and the Evolution of Planetary Habitability in the AU Mic System

The diversity of planetary systems that have been discovered are revealing the plethora of possible architectures, providing insights into planet formation and evolution. They also increase our understanding of system parameters that may affect planetary habitability, and how such conditions are influenced by initial conditions. The AU~Mic system is unique among known planetary systems in that it is a nearby, young, multi-planet transiting system. Such a young and well characterized system provides an opportunity to study orbital dynamical and habitability studies for planets in the very early stages of their evolution. Here, we calculate the evolution of the Habitable Zone of the system through time, including the pre-main sequence phase that the system currently resides in. We discuss the planetary atmospheric processes occurring for an Earth-mass planet during this transitionary period, and provide calculations of the climate state convergence age for both volatile rich and poor initial conditions. We present results of an orbital dynamical analysis of the AU~Mic system that demonstrate the rapid eccentricity evolution of the known planets, and show that terrestrial planets within the Habitable Zone of the system can retain long-term stability. Finally, we discuss follow-up observation prospects, detectability of possible Habitable Zone planets, and how the AU Mic system may be used as a template for studies of planetary habitability evolution.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

A Volatile-Poor Formation of LHS 3844b based on its Lack of Significant Atmosphere

Exoplanet discoveries have reached into the realm of terrestrial planets that are becoming the subject of atmospheric studies. One such discovery is LHS 3844b, a 1.3 Earth radius planet in a 0.46 day orbit around an M4.5-5 dwarf star. Follow-up observations indicate that the planet is largely devoid of substantial atmosphere. This lack of significant atmosphere places astrophysical and geophysical constraints on LHS 3844b, primarily the degree of volatile outgassing and the rate of atmosphere erosion. We estimate the age of the host star as $7.8\pm1.6$ Gyrs and find evidence of an active past comparable to Proxima Centauri. We use geodynamical models of volcanic outgassing and atmospheric erosion to show that the apparent lack of atmosphere is consistent with a volatile-poor mantle for LHS 3844b. We show the core is unlikely to host enough C to produce a sufficiently volatile-poor mantle, unless the bulk planet is volatile-poor relative to Earth. While we cannot rule out a giant impact stripping LHS 3844b's atmosphere, we show this mechanism would require significant mantle stripping, potentially leaving LHS 3844b as an Fe-rich "super-Mercury". Atmospheric erosion by smaller impacts is possible, but only if the planet has already begun degassing and is bombarded by $10^3$ impactors of radius 500-1000 km traveling at escape velocity. We discuss formation and migration scenarios that could account for a volatile poor origin, including the potential for an unobserved massive companion planet. A relatively volatile-poor composition of LHS 3844b suggests that the planet formed interior to the system snow-line.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

Exogeoscience and Its Role in Characterizing Exoplanet Habitability and the Detectability of Life

The search for exoplanetary life must encompass the complex geological processes reflected in an exoplanet's atmosphere, or we risk reporting false positive and false negative detections. To do this, we must nurture the nascent discipline of "exogeoscience" to fully integrate astronomers, astrophysicists, geoscientists, oceanographers, atmospheric chemists and biologists. Increased funding for interdisciplinary research programs, supporting existing and future multidisciplinary research nodes, and developing research incubators is key to transforming true exogeoscience from an aspiration to a reality.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

Warming Early Mars with Climate Cycling: The Effect of CO2-H2 Collision-induced Absorption

Explaining the evidence for surface liquid water on early Mars has been a challenge for climate modelers, as the sun was ~30% less luminous during the late-Noachian. We propose that the additional greenhouse forcing of CO2-H2 collision-induced absorption is capable of bringing the surface temperature above freezing and can put early Mars into a limit-cycling regime. Limit cycles occur when insolation is low and CO2 outgassing rates are unable to balance with the rapid drawdown of CO2 during warm weathering periods. Planets in this regime will alternate between global glaciation and transient warm climate phases. This mechanism is capable of explaining the geomorphological evidence for transient warm periods in the martian record. Previous work has shown that collision-induced absorption of CO2-H2 was capable of deglaciating early Mars, but only with high H2 outgassing rates (greater than ~600 Tmol/yr) and at high surface pressures (between 3 to 4 bars). We used new theoretically derived collision-induced absorption coefficients for CO2-H2 to reevaluate the climate limit cycling hypothesis for early Mars. Using the new and stronger absorption coefficients in our 1-dimensional radiative convective model as well as our energy balance model, we find that limit cycling can occur with an H2 outgassing rate as low as ~300 Tmol/yr at surface pressures below 3 bars. Our results agree more closely with paleoparameters for early martian surface pressure and hydrogen abundance.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Habitability of Earth-like stagnant lid planets: Climate evolution and recovery from snowball states

Coupled models of mantle thermal evolution, volcanism, outgassing, weathering, and climate evolution for Earth-like (in terms of size and composition) stagnant lid planets are used to assess their prospects for habitability. The results indicate that planetary CO$_2$ budgets ranging from $\approx 3$ orders of magnitude lower than Earth's to $\approx 1$ order of magnitude larger, and radiogenic heating budgets as large or larger than Earth's, allow for habitable climates lasting 1-5 Gyrs. The ability of stagnant lid planets to recover from potential snowball states is also explored; recovery is found to depend on whether atmosphere-ocean chemical exchange is possible. For a "hard" snowball with no exchange, recovery is unlikely, as most CO$_2$ outgassing takes place via metamorphic decarbonation of the crust, which occurs below the ice layer. However, for a "soft" snowball where there is exchange between atmosphere and ocean, planets can readily recover. For both hard and soft snowball states, there is a minimum CO$_2$ budget needed for recovery; below this limit any snowball state would be permanent. Thus there is the possibility for hysteresis in stagnant lid planet climate evolution, where planets with low CO$_2$ budgets that start off in a snowball climate will be permanently stuck in this state, while otherwise identical planets that start with a temperate climate will be capable of maintaining this climate for 1 Gyrs or more. Finally, the model results have important implications for future exoplanet missions, as they can guide observations to planets most likely to possess habitable climates.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

Carbon cycling and habitability of Earth-size stagnant lid planets

Models of thermal evolution, crustal production, and CO$_2$ cycling are used to constrain the prospects for habitability of rocky planets, with Earth-like size and composition, in the stagnant lid regime. Specifically, we determine the conditions under which such planets can maintain rates of CO$_2$ degassing large enough to prevent global surface glaciation, but small enough so as not to exceed the upper limit on weathering rates provided by the supply of fresh rock, a situation which would lead to runaway atmospheric CO$_2$ accumulation and an inhospitably hot climate. The models show that stagnant lid planets with initial radiogenic heating rates of 100-250 TW, and with total CO$_2$ budgets ranging from $\sim 10^{-2} -1$ times Earth's estimated CO$_2$ budget, can maintain volcanic outgassing rates suitable for habitability for $\approx 1-5$ Gyrs; larger CO$_2$ budgets result in uninhabitably hot climates, while smaller budgets result in global glaciation. High radiogenic heat production rates favor habitability by sustaining volcanism and CO$_2$ outgassing longer. Thus, the results suggest that plate tectonics may not be required for establishing a long-term carbon cycle and maintaining a stable, habitable climate. The model is necessarily highly simplified, as the uncertainties with exoplanet thermal evolution and outgassing are large. Nevertheless, the results provide some first order guidance for future exoplanet missions, by predicting the age at which habitability becomes unlikely for a stagnant lid planet as a function of initial radiogenic heat budget. This prediction is powerful because both planet heat budget and age can potentially be constrained from stellar observations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

Whole planet coupling between climate, mantle, and core: Implications for the evolution of rocky planets

Earth's climate, mantle, and core interact over geologic timescales. Climate influences whether plate tectonics can take place on a planet, with cool climates being favorable for plate tectonics because they enhance stresses in the lithosphere, suppress plate boundary annealing, and promote hydration and weakening of the lithosphere. Plate tectonics plays a vital role in the long-term carbon cycle, which helps to maintain a temperate climate. Plate tectonics provides long-term cooling of the core, which is vital for generating a magnetic field, and the magnetic field is capable of shielding atmospheric volatiles from the solar wind. Coupling between climate, mantle, and core can potentially explain the divergent evolution of Earth and Venus. As Venus lies too close to the sun for liquid water to exist, there is no long-term carbon cycle and thus an extremely hot climate. Therefore plate tectonics cannot operate and a long-lived core dynamo cannot be sustained due to insufficient core cooling. On planets within the habitable zone where liquid water is possible, a wide range of evolutionary scenarios can take place depending on initial atmospheric composition, bulk volatile content, or the timing of when plate tectonics initiates, among other factors. Many of these evolutionary trajectories would render the planet uninhabitable. However, there is still significant uncertainty over the nature of the coupling between climate, mantle, and core. Future work is needed to constrain potential evolutionary scenarios and the likelihood of an Earth-like evolution.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

The Role of Plate Tectonic-Climate Coupling and Exposed Land Area in the Development of Habitable Climates on Rocky Planets

The long-term carbon cycle is vital for maintaining liquid water oceans on rocky planets due to the negative climate feedbacks involved in silicate weathering. Plate tectonics plays a crucial role in driving the long-term carbon cycle because it is responsible for CO$_2$ degassing at ridges and arcs, the return of CO$_2$ to the mantle through subduction, and supplying fresh, weatherable rock to the surface via uplift and orogeny. However, the presence of plate tectonics itself may depend on climate according to recent geodynamical studies showing that cool surface temperatures are important for maintaining vigorous plate tectonics. Using a simple carbon cycle model, I show that the negative climate feedbacks inherent in the long-term carbon cycle are uninhibited by climate's effect on plate tectonics. Furthermore, initial atmospheric CO$_2$ conditions do not impact the final climate state reached when the carbon cycle comes to equilibrium, as long as liquid water is present and silicate weathering can occur. Thus an initially hot, CO$_2$ rich atmosphere does not prevent the development of a temperate climate and plate tectonics on a planet. However, globally supply-limited weathering does prevent the development of temperate climates on planets with small subaerial land areas and large total CO$_2$ budgets because supply-limited weathering lacks stabilizing climate feedbacks. Planets in the supply-limited regime may become inhospitable for life and could experience significant water loss. Supply-limited weathering is less likely on plate tectonic planets, because plate tectonics promotes high erosion rates and thus a greater supply of bedrock to the surface.

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arXiv2014

Initiation of Plate Tectonics from Post-Magma Ocean Thermo-Chemical Convection

Leading theories for the presence of plate tectonics on Earth typically appeal to the role of present day conditions in promoting rheological weakening of the lithosphere. However, it is unknown whether the conditions of the early Earth were favorable for plate tectonics, or any form of subduction, and thus how subduction begins is unclear. Using physical models based on grain-damage, a grainsize-feedback mechanism capable of producing plate-like mantle convection, we demonstrate that subduction was possible on the Hadean Earth (hereafter referred to as proto-subduction or proto-plate tectonics), that proto-subduction differed from modern day plate tectonics, and that it could initiate rapidly. Scaling laws for convection with grain-damage show that, though either higher mantle temperatures or higher surface temperatures lead to slower plates, proto-subduction, with plate speeds of $\approx 1.75$ cm/yr, can still be maintained in the Hadean, even with a CO$_2$ rich primordial atmosphere. Furthermore, when the mantle potential temperature is high (e.g. above $\approx 2000$ K), the mode of subduction switches to a "sluggish subduction" style, where downwellings are drip-like and plate boundaries are diffuse. Finally, numerical models of post-magma ocean mantle convection demonstrate that proto-plate tectonics likely initiates within $\sim100$ Myrs of magma ocean solidification, consistent with evidence from Hadean zircons. After the initiation of proto-subduction, non-plate-tectonic "sluggish subduction" prevails, giving way to modern style plate tectonics as both the mantle interior and climate cool. Hadean proto-subduction may hasten the onset of modern plate tectonics by drawing excess CO$_2$ out of the atmosphere and cooling the climate.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2014

Scaling Laws for Convection with Temperature-dependent Viscosity and Grain-damage

Numerical experiments of convection with grain-damage are used to develop scaling laws for convective heat flow, mantle velocity, and plate velocity across the stagnant lid and plate-tectonic regimes. Three main cases are presented in order of increasing complexity: a simple case wherein viscosity is only dependent on grainsize, a case where viscosity depends on temperature and grainsize, and finally a case where viscosity is temperature and grainsize sensitive, and the grain-growth (or healing) is also temperature sensitive. In all cases, convection with grain-damage scales differently than Newtonian convection due to the effects of grain-damage. For the fully realistic case, numerical results show stagnant lid convection, fully mobilized convection that resembles the temperature-independent viscosity case, and partially mobile or transitional convection, depending on damage to healing ratio, Rayleigh number, and the activation energies for viscosity and healing. Applying our scaling laws for the fully realistic case to Earth and Venus we demonstrate that increasing surface temperature dramatically decreases plate speed and heat flow, essentially shutting down plate tectonics, due to increased healing in lithospheric shear zones, as proposed previously. Contrary to many previous studies, the transitional regime between the stagnant lid and fully mobilized regimes is large, and the transition from stagnant lid to mobile convection is gradual and continuous. Thus planets could exhibit a full range of surface mobility, as opposed to the bimodal distribution of fully mobile lid planets and stagnant lid planets that is typically assumed.

physics.flu-dyn↗