arXiv subjects

Bradley E. Schaefer

Publications and source records attributed to Bradley E. Schaefer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Classical Nova V1405 Cas Had $M_{\rm ejecta}$$>$$M_{\rm accreted}$ and so is Unlikely to be a Type Ia Supernova Progenitor

Nova 2021 Cassiopeia (V1405 Cas) was an ordinary J(175) neon nova with the white dwarf mass estimated to be $M_{\rm WD}$=0.60$\pm$0.10 $M_{\odot}$. I found an orbital period of $P$=0.1884 days, and have tracked 20 times of photometric minima from 2013--2025. I measure that $P$ increased from before to after the eruption with $P_{\rm pre}$=0.1883919$\pm$0.0000018 days and $P_{\rm post}$=0.1884043$\pm$0.0000018 days, for $ΔP$/$P$=66$_{-18}^{+21}$ parts-per-million. With correction for the angular momentum loss by the binary during the eruption, I derive that the nova ejected $M_{\rm ejecta}$=7.5$\times$10$^{-4}$ $M_{\odot}$, with an extreme range of (2.9--40)$\times$10$^{-4}$ $M_{\odot}$. The mass accreted during the previous eruption cycle comes from the trigger mass, and is $M_{\rm accreted}$=(1.6$\pm$0.4)$\times$10$^{-4}$ $M_{\odot}$. V1405 Cas provides counterexamples against five claims about CV evolution that have dominated since the 1980s. First, V1405 Cas has positive $\dot{P}$, and this is contrary to the Magnetic Braking Model. Second, the $ΔP$ is 20$\times$ too small to allow the system to fade into a hibernation state. Third, $M_{\rm WD}$ is decreasing over time, as shown by $M_{\rm ejecta}$$>$$M_{\rm accreted}$ and by being a neon nova. Fourth, V1405 Cas is not a Type Ia supernova progenitor, for the same reasons. Fifth, the orbital period of V1405 Cas increased by $+$75 ppm from 2013--2025, as a counterexample to the pervasive idea that cataclysmic variables are universally declining in period from evolution. V1405 Cas is the latest of recent measures of $ΔP$ and $\dot{P}$ for 52 cataclysmic variables and 25 X-ray binaries that have together refuted all five claims.

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arXiv2026

FQ Circini: An Ordinary Nova with a High-mass B1 V(n)(e) Companion Whose Decretion Disk Transfers Mass to the White Dwarf via Roche-Lobe Overflow

FQ Cir was an ordinary fast He/N classical nova, peaking at $V$=10.9. The pre-eruption and post-eruption counterpart was at $V$=14.0, making the smallest known classical nova amplitude of 3.1 mag. The nova light and the counterpart coincide to 0.034 arc-seconds, and the counterpart is a rare hot/blue emission-line star with flickering, so the identification of the quiescent nova is certain. The counterpart is a weak Be main sequence star, B1 V(n)(e). A coherent photometric period appears in all four {\it TESS} Sectors and in the AAVSO post-eruption light curve, as ellipsoidal modulation with orbital period 2.041738 days. The companion must have been spun-up to a fast rotation, and like all Be stars, a decretion disk is exuded. With the constraints of the blackbody radius and the main sequence, the companion mass is 13.0$^{+0.2}_{-0.5}$ $M_{\odot}$, with radius 6.2$\pm$0.2 $R_{\odot}$. This is the discovery of a cataclysmic variable with a high-mass companion, a new class that we call `High Mass Cataclysmic Variables'. The white dwarf mass is 1.25$\pm$0.10 $M_{\odot}$ and must have an accretion disk that supplies fuel for the nova eruption. FQ Cir represents a new mode of accretion in interacting binaries, with Roche lobe overflow from the decretion disk feeding mass into the usual accretion disk around the white dwarf, for disk-to-disk accretion. From the mass budget of the binary, the primary star must have its initial mass $>$7.6 $M_{\odot}$, forming an ONe white dwarf, so FQ Cir can never become a Type Ia supernova.

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arXiv2026

Orbital Period Changes of Recurrent Nova T Pyxidis Demonstrate that M_ejecta >> 11.3xM_accreted and Is Not a Type Ia Supernova Progenitor

Recurrent nova (RN) T Pyxidis (T Pyx) has a complex history of mass accreting-onto and ejection-from the white dwarf, with a classical nova eruption around 1866 kick-starting a RN-phase with six RN eruptions from 1890--2011. T Pyx is a primary progenitor candidate for Type Ia supernovae (SNIa). This is chiefly a question of whether the mass accreted by the white dwarf ($M_{\rm accreted}$) is more-or-less than the mass ejected by the nova eruptions ($M_{\rm ejecta}$) over the entire eruption cycle. Prior attempts to measure $M_{\rm ejecta}$ from the traditional methods have a scatter of $>$130$\times$, so only a new technique can provide a measure of adequate accuracy and reliability. This new technique is the timing experiment of measuring the orbital period from 1986 to 2025, where the period increased by $+$50.3$\pm$7.9 parts-per-million across the 2011 eruption. With simple and sure physics, the best estimate for the mass ejected by one RN event is $>$2400$\times$10$^{-7}$ M$_{\odot}$, with an extreme inviolate limit of $\gg$354$\times$10$^{-7}$ M$_{\odot}$. Over all eruptions in a cycle, $M_{ejecta}$$>$17120$\times$10$^{-7}$ M$_{\odot}$, with an inviolate limit of $M_{ejecta}$$\gg$2144$\times$10$^{-7}$ M$_{\odot}$. Over the full eruption cycle, the white dwarf accreted 220$\times$10$^{-7}$ M$_{\odot}$. So M$_{\rm ejecta}$$\gg$11.3$\times$M$_{\rm accreted}$, and T Pyx can never become a SNIa. This paper is the seventh in a series proving that each of various popular candidate SNIa progenitors cannot possibly evolve to a supernova; including V445 Pup, U Sco, T CrB, all symbiotic stars, FQ Cir, V1405 Cas, and now T Pyx.

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arXiv2025

Symbiotic Stars (Including T Corona Borealis) Are Not Immediate Progenitors of Normal Type Ia Supernovae

A popular solution to the Type Ia supernova (SNIa) progenitor problem is that the immediate progenitors are symbiotic star systems. This solution requires that the companion star of the exploding white dwarf must be a red giant star with a heavy stellar wind. This has been tested for 189 normal SNIa, with all tested systems being proven to not have the required red giant: (A) Zero-out-of-9 normal type Ia supernova remnants have any red giant ex-companion star near the center with limits of $M_V$$>$0.0. (B) Zero-out-of-2 normal SNIa in nearby galaxies have any red giant at the position as seen in archival pre-eruption images by HST to limits of $M_V$$>$0.0. (C and D) Zero-out-of-111 normal SNIa have any detected hydrogen or helium emission lines in their eruption spectra, with limits on entrained gas of $M_{\rm H}$$<$0.22 and $M_{\rm He}$$<$0.07 M$_{\odot}$, which is the minimum mass lost by a red giant in a nearby blastwave. (E and F) Zero-out-of-9 nearby normal SNIa were detected in the radio or X-rays, as required from the ejecta/wind impact, to limits of $\dot{M}_{\rm wind}$$<$3$\times$$10^{-9}$ M$_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$. (G) Zero-out-of-$\sim$69 normal SNIa display any brightening in the first few days to limits of $M_V$$>$$-$18, as required for a red giant companion when we are looking down its shadowcone. With zero-out-of-189 normal SNIa having any possibility of having a red giant companion, the fraction of SNIa with symbiotic progenitors is $<$0.53%. The overwhelming conclusion is that normal SNIa are not from symbiotic-progenitors in any measurable fraction.

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arXiv2025

Comprehensive Listing of 208 Nova White Dwarf Masses As the Primary Determinant of Spectral-Class and Light-Curve-Class

For Galactic novae, I calculate and collect a comprehensive catalog of 208 measures of white dwarf (WD) masses ($M_{\rm WD}$) and 232 measures of average $V$ magnitudes in quiescence ($V_q$). These are collected into a comprehensive catalog of most fundamental properties of all 402 known Galactic novae. The nova light curve and spectral classes are determined primarily by $M_{\rm WD}$. With an apparently clean cutoff, nova with light curve shapes in the S, P, O, and C classes have $>$0.95 $M_{\odot}$, while the J, D, and F class novae have $<$0.95 $M_{\odot}$. The speed class of the light curves is $t_3$=$10^{(-1.73M_{\rm WD})}$$\times$1900 days. The spectral class of novae is Fe II below 1.15 $M_{\odot}$, is He/N above 1.15 $M_{\odot}$, and the Hybrid novae are spread around this division. Neon novae have WD masses ranging from 0.53--1.37 $M_{\odot}$, with 76\% being measured to be below their minimum formation mass of 1.2 $M_{\odot}$, demonstrating that most are losing mass over each eruption cycle. The FWHM velocity of the Balmer line profiles is close to 0.23 times the WD escape velocity, or roughly $10^{(M_{\rm WD}/2)}$$\times$500 km s$^{-1}$ for $<$1.3 $M_{\odot}$. And all the known Galactic recurrent novae are $>$1.2 $M_{\odot}$. For issues involving the late expansion of the ejecta, I find that the visibility of shells is strongly biased towards novae with orbital periods $<$0.33 days, and that the visibility of $γ$-rays from the shells are strongly biased towards novae with fast declines, with $t_3$ a proxy for the $γ$-ray luminosity.

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arXiv2025

Orbital Period Changes in Recurrent Nova T Corona Borealis Prove That It Is Not a Type Ia Supernovae Progenitor

T Corona Borealis (T CrB) is a recurrent nova and a symbiotic star that is commonly highlighted as the best case for being a progenitor of a Type Ia supernova (SNIa) within the framework of single-degenerate models. This exemplar can be tested by measuring whether the white dwarf (WD) mass ($M_{\rm WD}$) is increasing over each eruption cycle. This is a balance between the mass ejected during each nova event ($M_{\rm ejecta}$) and the mass accreted onto the WD between the nova events ($M_{\rm accreted}$). I have used all 206 radial velocities from 1946--2024 to measure the orbital period just after the 1946 eruption to be $P_{\rm post}$=227.6043 days, while the steady orbital period change ($\dot{P}$) is ($-$3.1$\pm$1.6)$\times$10$^{-6}$. I have used my full 213,730 magnitude $B$ and $V$ light curve from 1842--2025 to measure the times of maximum brightness in the ellipsoidal modulations to construct the $O-C$ from 1866--1946. I fit the broken parabola shape, to find the orbital period immediately before the 1946 eruption to be $P_{\rm pre}$=227.4586 days. The orbital period changed by $ΔP$=$+$0.146$\pm$0.019 days. With Kepler's Law, conservation of angular momentum, and the well-measured binary properties, the ejecta mass in 1946 is 0.00074$\pm$0.00009 M$_{\odot}$. $M_{\rm accreted}$ is reliably measured to be 1.38$\times$10$^{-6}$ M$_{\odot}$ from the accretion luminosity. $M_{\rm ejecta}$ is larger than $M_{\rm accreted}$ by 540$\times$, so $M_{\rm WD}$ is {\it decreasing} every eruption cycle. T CrB can never become a SNIa.

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arXiv2025

Orbital Period Changes of Recurrent Nova U Scorpii Demonstrate that M$_{\rm ejecta}$=26$\times$M$_{\rm accreted}$ and Is Not a Type Ia Supernova Progenitor

Recurrent nova U Scorpii (U Sco) is one of the prototypes for a Type Ia supernova progenitor. The logic is that the white dwarf is near the Chandrasekhar mass and gas is accumulating onto its surface at a near-maximal accretion rate, so it will soon increase its mass to the supernova trigger. But the white dwarf loses mass every nova eruption, so the issue is balancing the mass ejected ($M_{\rm ejecta}$) against the mass accreted between eruptions ($M_{\rm accreted}$). Measuring $M_{\rm accreted}$ can be done in several ways to useable accuracy. But the old methods for measuring $M_{\rm ejecta}$ (involving the flux in hydrogen emission lines) are all with real error bars of 2--3 orders of magnitude. The only solution is to measure the change of the orbital period across the nova eruption ($ΔP$). But this solution requires a vast photometric program of eclipse timings stretching decades. For U Sco, a program started in 1989, now reaches its culmination with measures of $ΔP$ for the eruptions of 1999, 2010, 2016, and 2022. This paper reports on 52 new eclipse times (for a total of 218 eclipses 1945--2025), plus a new theory result allowing for the confident calculation of $M_{\rm ejecta}$ from $ΔP$. The four eruptions ejected a total of (103$\pm$14)$\times$$10^{-6}$ $M_{\odot}$, while the white dwarf accreted 4$\times$$10^{-6}$ $M_{\odot}$ over the four previous eruption cycles. With M$_{\rm ejecta}$=26$\times$M$_{\rm accreted}$, the U Sco white dwarf is losing large masses each eruption cycle, so U Sco can never produce a Type Ia supernova.

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arXiv2025

HD 5501: A Rapidly Evolving Interacting Eclipsing Binary with a Variable Light Curve and H$α$ Emission

HD~5501, a hitherto little studied eclipsing binary with an early A-type primary, has been caught in a short-lived, astrophysically interesting phase of its binary evolution. Recent photometric and spectroscopic observations, including photometric data from {\it TESS}, show it has a highly variable light curve as well as complex spectral variability, particularly in both the absorption and emission components at H~$α$. Our current campaign, including both professional and amateur observers, has determined that the primary is evolving rapidly across the Hertzsprung gap and that, unusually in the case of mass transfer, the orbital period is declining with a characteristic time-scale $P/\dot{P} \approx$ 170,000 years. Significantly, the orbit is eccentric and it appears that mass transfer from the primary to the secondary occurs only near periastron. Modeling indicates the presumed B7 V secondary to be surrounded by an accretion torus, which likely has dynamically chaotic variations in size and shape. Our analysis further implies the presence of a circumbinary disc or shell supplied by mass loss through the Lagrange $L_3$ point. That mass loss appears to account for most of the emission at H$α$. We describe how this astrophysically interesting system may yield valuable information about binary star evolution at the onset of Roche-lobe overflow, as well as insights into eccentricity-modifying mechanisms such as the Soker mechanism.

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arXiv2025

Evolutionary Period Changes for 25 X-ray Binaries and the Measurement of an Empirical Universal Law for Angular Momentum Loss in Accreting Binaries

I measure and collect timings of phase markers (like eclipse times) for the orbits of 25 X-ray binaries (XRBs) so as to calculate the steady evolutionary period change ($\dot{P}$). I combine these with my observed $\dot{P}$ measures from 52 cataclysmic variables (CVs). Further, I subtract out the contributions from gravitational radiation ($\dot{P}_{\rm GR}$) and mass transfer ($\dot{P}_{\rm mt}$), deriving the period change from the residual unknown angular momentum loss ($\dot{P}_{\rm AML}$=$\dot{P}$-$\dot{P}_{\rm GR}$-$\dot{P}_{\rm mt}$). I have $\dot{P}_{\rm AML}$ measures for 77 XRBs and CVs, with these being direct measures of the driver of binary evolution. The venerable Magnetic Braking Model (MBM) of binary evolution has its most fundamental predictions tested, with most systems having predictions wrong by over one order-of-magnitude. Other proposed mechanisms to explain the AML also fail, so we are left with no known mechanism that dominates the AML. An alternative path to the AML law is empirical, where my $\dot{P}_{\rm AML}$ measures are fitted to a power-law involving the fundamental binary properties. With this, the dominant AML law for systems with orbital periods ($P$) from 0.13--1.0 days is $\dot{P}_{\rm AML} = -1500\times10^{-12} P^{1.29} M_{\rm prim}^{2.75} M_{\rm comp}^{-1.00}\dot{M}^{0.43}_{-8}$, in appropriate units. Similar AML laws for binaries below the Period Gap and for binaries with $P$$>$1.0 day are derived. These three AML laws are of good accuracy and are the best representations of the actual evolution for all 77 XRBs and CVs of all classes, so the three taken together can be called `universal'.

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arXiv2024

The Unique Helium Nova V445 Puppis Ejected $\gg$0.001 M$_{\odot}$ in the Year 2000 and Will Not Become a Type Ia Supernova

V445 Puppis is the only known example of a helium nova, where a layer of helium-rich gas accretes onto the surface of a white dwarf in a cataclysmic variable, with runaway helium burning making for the nova event. Speculatively, helium nova can provide one path to produce a Type Ia supernova (SNIa), within the larger framework of single-degenerate models. Relatively little has been known about V445 Pup, with this work reporting the discovery of the orbital period near 1.87 days. The companion star is 2.65$\pm$0.35 R$_{\odot}$ in radius as an evolved giant star stripped of its outer hydrogen envelope. The orbital period immediately before the 2000 eruption was $P_{\rm pre}$=1.871843$\pm$0.000014 days, with a steady period change of (-0.17$\pm$0.06)$\times$10$^{-8}$ from 1896--1995. The period immediately after the nova eruption was $P_{\rm post}$=1.873593$\pm$0.000034 days, with a $\dot{P}$ of ($-$4.7$\pm$0.5)$\times$10$^{-8}$. The fractional orbital period change ($ΔP/P$) is $+$935$\pm$27 ppm. This restricts the mass of the gases ejected in the nova eruption to be $\gg$0.001M$_{\odot}$, and much greater than the mass accreted to trigger the nova. So the white dwarf is losing mass over each eruption cycle, and will not become a SNIa. Further, for V445 Pup and helium novae in general, I collect observations from 136 normal SNIa, for which any giant or sub-giant companion star would have been detected, yet zero companions are found. This is an independent proof that V445 Pup and helium novae are not SNIa progenitors.

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arXiv2024

Recurrent Nova V2487 Oph Had Superflares in 1941 and 1942 With Radiant Energies 10$^{42.5\pm1.6}$ Ergs

V2487 Ophiuchi (V2487 Oph) is a recurrent nova with classical nova eruptions in 1900 and 1998, and it is also the most extreme known superflare star. These superflares are roughly-hour-long flares with amplitudes and optical energies reaching up to 1.10 mag and $10^{39.21}$ ergs, with the superflares recurring once-a-day. The V2487 Oph superflares are certainly operating with the same mechanism as all the other types of superflare stars, where magnetic loops are twisted and stretched until reconnection occurs, whereupon ambient electrons are accelerated to relativistic energies and then emitted bremsstrahlung radiation from X-ray to radio. V2487 Oph is unique among known superflare stars in that one of the loop footprints is in an accretion disk. This exact mechanism was theoretically predicted by M. R. Hayashi and colleagues in 1996. Now, I have found two superflares recorded on Harvard archival photographs from the years 1941 and 1942. These two superflares have $B$ magnitude amplitudes of $>$1.83 and $>$2.00 mag and total radiated energies of $10^{42.4}$ and $10^{42.5}$ ergs with bolometric corrections. Each has emitted energies of $\sim$30-billion Carringtons, in units of the most energetic solar flare. Further, I find superflares in the Zwicky Transient Factory light curves, so V2487 Oph has been superflaring from 1941 to 2023. For the observed number distribution of $dN/dE$=$4E^{-2}$ superflares per year, for $E$ in units of $10^{41}$ ergs, the emitted energy in superflare light is $10^{42.1}$ erg in each year, or $10^{44.1}$ ergs from 1941 to 2023.

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arXiv2024

Evolutionary Period Changes For 52 Cataclysmic Variables, and the Failure For the Most Fundamental Prediction of the Magnetic Braking Model

The evolution of Cataclysmic Variables (CVs) is driven by period-changes ($\dot{P}$), for which the long-venerable consensus is the Magnetic Braking Model (MBM). The MBM has its only distinctive assumption being a power-law `recipe' describing the angular momentum loss (AML) in the binary, producing a single unique evolutionary track with $\dot{P}$ as a function of the orbital period. This required prediction can be used to test the most-fundamental assumption of MBM, but it has never been tested previously. In this paper, I collect $\dot{P}$ measures for 52 CVs of all types. First, 44 per cent of the CVs have positive-$\dot{P}$, with such being impossible in MBM. Second, even amongst the CVs with negative-$\dot{P}$, their $\dot{P}$ measures are always more-negative than required by MBM, with an average deviation of 110$\times$. Third, three CVs have large chaotic variations in $\dot{P}$ that are impossible for MBM, proving that some unknown mechanism exists and is operating that dominates for these systems. Fourth, the MBM does not account for the long-term effects on evolution arising from the large sudden period decreases seen across many nova events, with this unaccounted effect dominating for the majority of nova systems and changing the sign of the overall evolutionary $\dot{P}$. Fifth, three recurrent novae are observed to suddenly change $\dot{P}$ by an order-of-magnitude across a nova event, with this being impossible in the MBM. In all, the required MBM $\dot{P}$ predictions all fail for my 52 CVs, usually by orders-of-magnitude, so the MBM AML-recipe is wrong by orders-of-magnitude.

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arXiv2023

Light Curves For Ten R Coronae Borealis Stars For Longer Than a Century: Secular Evolution, Dip Statistics, and a General Model for the Shape of Isolated Light Curve Dips

R Coronae Borealis stars (RCBs) are cool supergiants that display non-periodic deep dips in brightness. Recently, a group of `Hot RCB stars` has been discovered to be fast evolving across the HR diagram, as these stars leave the RCB region, with brightness changes at the rate of $\sim$1 mag/century. Perhaps cool RCB stars can also be seen evolving, either increasing in temperature as they evolve to become Hot RCB stars, or perhaps increasing in luminosity as the stars arrive at the RCB region. To seek these changes, the only possible method is to extract archival data going back more than a century, looking for the brightness changes associated with the evolution. I have measured and extracted 323,464 magnitudes (mostly from the Harvard plates and from the AAVSO) for ten cool RCB stars, all with over a century for the light curves, all consistently calibrated to a modern magnitude system. For times away from any dips, these light curves are flat to within the typical uncertainty of $\pm$0.10 mag/century. That is, I see no significant evolution. I also have collected a large database of light curve dips and their properties. From this, the light curves for all the well-observed isolated dips have the same shape, featuring a flat slope for the few days immediately after the minima. Further, I derive a general model for the shape of the light curve for all isolated RCB dips, with a simple equation accurately describing the observed recovery to maximum light.

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arXiv2023

The recurrent nova T CrB had prior eruptions observed near December 1787 and October 1217 AD

The famous recurrent nova (RN) T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) has had observed eruptions peaking at a visual magnitude of 2.0 in the years 1866 and 1946, while a third eruption is now expected for the year 2024.4+-0.3. Each RN has very similar light curves of eruptions that come with a fairly even-spacing in time, for which T CrB has a recurrence timescale near 80 years. So it is reasonable to look backwards in time for prior eruptions, around 1786, and so on back. I have investigated two long-lost suggestions that T CrB was seen in eruption in the years 1217 and 1787. (1) In a catalog published in 1789, the Reverend Francis Wollaston reports an astrometric position for a star that is exactly on top of T CrB. From his letters, these observations were made on at least four occassions with both a large and small telescope, within a few days before 1787 December 28. Wollaston's limiting magnitude for his astrometry is near 7.8 mag, so T CrB would have to have been in eruption. With other transients strongly rejected, the only way that Wollaston could get the coordinates was to have measured the coordinates of T CrB itself during an eruption. (2) The 1217 event has an eyewitness report written by Abbott Burchard of Upsberg as a fast-rising stellar point-source ("stella") in Corona Borealis that "shone with great light", lasted for "many days", and was ascribed as being a "wonderful sign". This event cannot be a report of a comet, because Burchard used the term for a star ("stella") and not for a comet, and because Burchard had the omen being very positive, with such being impossible for comets that are universally the worst of omens. The reported event is just as expected for a prior eruption of T CrB, and all other possibilities are strongly rejected, so the case for the 1217 eruption of T CrB is strong.

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arXiv2023

Orbital Period Changes for Fourteen Novae and the Critical Failures of the Predictions of Standard Theories, the Hibernation Model, and the Magnetic Braking Model

The evolution of novae and Cataclysmic Variables (CVs) is driven by changes in the binary orbital periods. In a direct and critical test for various evolution models and their physical mechanisms, I measure the sudden changes in the period ($ΔP$) across 14 nova eruptions and I measure the steady period change during quiescence ($\dot{P}$) for 20 inter-eruption intervals. The standard theory for $ΔP$ is dominated by the mechanism of mass loss, and this fails completely for the five novae with negative values, and it fails to permit the $ΔP$ for U Sco eruptions to change by one order-of-magnitude from eruption-to-eruption. The Hibernation Model of evolution is refuted because all the $ΔP$ measures are orders of magnitude too small to cause any significant drop in accretion luminosity, and indeed, near half of the nova have negative $ΔP$ as the opposite of the required mechanism for any hibernation state. As for the Magnetic Braking Model, this fails by many orders-of-magnitude in its predictions of the required $\dot{P}$ for 9-out-of-13 novae. The observed $\dot{P}$ values scatter, both positively and negatively, over a range of $\pm$10$^{-9}$, while the predicted values are from $-$10$^{-13}$ to $-$10$^{-11}$. This huge scatter is not possible with standard theory, and there must be some currently-unknown mechanism to be added in, with this new mechanism 100--10000$\times$ larger in effect than the current theory allows. In all, these failed predictions demonstrate that nova systems must have unknown physical mechanisms for both $ΔP$ and $\dot{P}$ that dominate over all other effects.

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arXiv2023

The B & V Light Curves for Recurrent Nova T CrB From 1842--2022, the Unique Pre- and Post-Eruption High-States, the Complex Period Changes, and the Upcoming Eruption in 2025.5$\pm$1.3

T CrB is one of the most-famous and brightest novae known, and is a recurrent nova with prior eruptions in 1866 and 1946 that peak at $V$=2.0. I have constructed light curves spanning 1842--2022 with 213,730 magnitudes, where the $B$ and $V$ magnitudes are fully corrected to the Johnson system. These light curves first reveal a unique complex high-state (with 20$\times$ higher accretion rate than the normal low-state) stretching from -10 to +9 years after eruption, punctuated with a deep pre-eruption dip (apparently from dust formation in a slow mass ejection) and a unique enigmatic secondary eruption (with 10 per cent of the energy of the primary eruption), with the light curves identical for the 1866 and 1946 eruptions. Starting in 2015, T CrB entered the high-state, like in 1936, so a third eruption in upcoming years has been widely anticipated. With the pre-1946 light curve as a template, I predict a date of 2025.5$\pm$1.3 for the upcoming eruption, with the primary uncertainty arising from a possible lengthening of the pre-eruption high-state. I use the large-amplitude ellipsoidal modulation to track the orbital phase of the binary from 1867--2022. I measure that the orbital period increased abruptly by $+$0.185$\pm$0.056 days across the 1946 eruption, the 1947--2022 years had a steady period decrease of ($-$8.9$\pm$1.6)$\times$10$^{-6}$ days-per-day, and the 1867--1946 years had a steady period change consistent with zero, at ($+$1.75$\pm$4.5)$\times$10$^{-6}$ days-per-day. These large period changes cannot be explained by any published mechanism.

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arXiv2023

The Path from the Chinese and Japanese Observations of Supernova 1181 AD, to a Type Iax Supernova, to the Merger of CO and ONe White Dwarfs

In 1181 AD, Chinese and Japanese observers reported an unmoving bright `Guest Star' in the constellation Chuanshe, visible for 185 days. In 2013, D. Patchick discovered what turned out to be a unique nebula surrounding a unique star, with the structure named `Pa 30', while subsequent workers made connections to mergers of white dwarfs, to the supernova subclass of low-luminosity Type Iax, and to the 1181 transient. Here, I provide a wide range of new observational evidence: First, detailed analysis of the original Chinese and Japanese reports places the `Guest Star' of 1181 into a small region with the only interesting source being Pa 30. Second, the ancient records confidently place the peak magnitude as 0.0$>$$V_{\rm peak}$$>$$-$1.4, and hence peak absolute magnitude $-$14.5$>$$M_{\rm V,peak}$$>$$-$16.0 mag. Third, the Pa 30 central star is fading from $B$=14.9 in 1889, to $B$=16.20 in 1950, to $B$=16.58 in 2022. Fourth, recent light curves show typical variability with full-amplitude of 0.24 mag on time-scales of one day and longer, critically with no coherent modulations for periods from 0.00046--10 days to strict limits. Fifth, the spectral energy distribution from the far-infrared to the ultraviolet is a nearly-perfect power-law with $F_ν\proptoν^{0.99\pm0.07}$, observed luminosity 128$\pm$24 L$_{\odot}$, and absolute magnitude $M_{\rm V}$=$+$1.07. I collect my new evidences with literature results to make a confident case to connect the East-Asian observations to a supernova, then to Pa 30, then to a low-luminosity Type Iax SN, then to the only possible explosion mechanism as a merger between CO and ONe white dwarfs.

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arXiv2023

Discovery of an Exceptional Optical Nebulosity in the Suspected Galactic SN Iax Remnant Pa 30 Linked to the Historical Guest Star of 1181 CE

A newly recognized young Galactic SN remnant, Pa 30 (G123.1+4.6), centered on a hot central star with a ~16,000 km/s wind velocity has recently been proposed to be the result of a double-degenerate merger leading to a SN Iax event associated with the guest star of 1181 CE. Here we present deep optical [S II] 6716,6731 images of Pa 30 which reveal an extraordinary and highly structured nebula 170" in diameter with dozens of long (5" - 20") radially aligned filaments with a convergence point near the hot central star. Optical spectra of filaments indicate a peak expansion velocity ~1100 km/s with electron densities of <100 to 700 cm^-3, and a thick shell-like structure resembling its appearance in 22 micron WISE images. No H-alpha emission was seen (I[6716/H-alpha] >5), with the only other line emission detected being faint [Ar III] 7136 suggesting a S, Ar-rich but H-poor remnant. The nebula's angular size, estimated 2.3 kpc distance, and 1100 km/s expansion velocity are consistent with an explosion date around 1181 CE. The remnant's unusual appearance may be due to the photoionization of wind-driven ejecta due to clump-wind interactions caused by the central star's high-luminosity wind.

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