arXiv subjects

Bradly C. Stadie

Publications and source records attributed to Bradly C. Stadie.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

NeuroLens: Learning Latent Embeddings of Neural Semantics from Chronic Recordings

Understanding how neural activity represents higher-order cognition and how these representations evolve over time has long been a central pursuit in neuroscience. However, current analytical tools cannot easily distinguish representational plasticity from recording instability in chronic neural recordings. Here, we introduce NeuroLens (Latent Embeddings of Neural Semantics), a self-supervised model based on the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) framework that learns denoised, semantically informative latents from chronic neural recordings. An adaptive encoder maps changing neural populations into a common latent space, while a temporal predictor learns structure that supports prediction of future latent states. By predicting in latent space, NeuroLens captures temporally predictable structure and reduces sensitivity to transient, recording-specific variability. Across chronic intracortical data in mice and humans, the learned representations improve decoding of decision-making and semantic task variables. Multi-day pretraining enables generalization to future sessions, rapid few-shot adaptation to unseen neural populations, and more stable decoding over time than state-of-the-art baselines. Together, these results establish NeuroLens as a new paradigm for studying how neural representations change during learning and over long timescales.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Temporal Leakage in LLM Backtesting: Measurement, Validation, and Adjusted Scores

The standard check for contamination in LLM backtests is simple: compare scores before and after the training cutoff. We show this check is uninformative. Four flagship models fail it on questions they cannot have memorized: every scored question resolved after their cutoffs. The reason is structural. Models legitimately know more about times near their cutoff, so recency mimics leakage, and we prove no passive backtest can separate the two from genuine skill. Measurement, not just detection, requires information from outside the backtest. We supply it in two forms. A known cutoff identifies leakage at the boundary; a matched clean control identifies it globally and yields a leakage-adjusted score. We also derive where leakage hides: it concentrates on outcomes that surprised the crowd and were well covered in training, and partial memorization is disproportionately rewarded. We validate the estimators against ground truth by planting leakage in twin models, where they recover the injected dose and return null on clean questions. Deployed on frontier models, they detect one cutoff-localized signature and, at the audit's power floor, clear five models whose apparent advantages were recency alone. Backtests need not be discarded; they need one defensible reference.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

All Leaks Count, Some Count More: Interpretable Temporal Contamination Detection and Mitigation in LLM Backtesting

Backtesting LLMs on resolved events assumes models reason only from pre-cutoff knowledge, yet pretrained models inevitably leak post-cutoff knowledge. We introduce a claim-level evaluation framework that decomposes prediction rationales into atomic claims and applies Shapley values to quantify each claim's decision impact, yielding \textbf{Shapley-DCLR} (\textbf{Shapley}-weighted \textbf{D}ecision-\textbf{C}ritical \textbf{L}eakage \textbf{R}ate) -- an interpretable metric measuring what fraction of decision-driving reasoning is contaminated. We further propose \textbf{TimeSPEC} (\textbf{Time}-\textbf{S}upervised \textbf{P}rediction with \textbf{E}xtracted \textbf{C}laims), an inference-time architecture that interleaves temporally-filtered retrieval with claim-level supervision, producing predictions grounded entirely in pre-cutoff evidence. Across three LLMs, the ablation experiments confirm retrieval and supervision are jointly necessary; and a three-task probe further illstrates that the performance cost of temporal enforcement scales with each task's reliance on post-cutoff information.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

TEMPO: Temporal Enforcement via Mode-Separated Policy Optimization for Trustworthy LLM Backtesting

Backtesting large language models on historical events requires reasoning exclusively from information available before a specified cutoff date. Yet models routinely leak post-cutoff knowledge from pre-training into their reasoning, inflating apparent accuracy and undermining evaluation validity. Prompt-based constraints fail when suppressed content is causally related to the prediction, and knowledge unlearning cannot address this problem because temporal compliance is instance-specific: the same fact may be legitimate evidence for one cutoff date and a violation for another. Rather than erasing knowledge, the model must learn temporal discipline: selecting evidence conditioned on each instance's cutoff date. We propose TEMPO (Temporal Enforcement via Mode-separated Policy Optimization), which trains this discipline via two contributions: (1) a two-mode reward where a leakage mode drives post-cutoff claims to zero as a hard prerequisite before a performance mode optimizes task performance; and (2) a GRPO-based training pipeline that enables the model to discover temporally valid reasoning strategies. We prove that training monotonically decreases leakage, converges to the leak-free optimum, and improves task performance once compliance is achieved. On three prediction tasks and two models, TEMPO reduces leakage from 2~13% to 0.6~3.7% across all conditions, with task performance improving 6~13% where strong pre-cutoff signals exist and maintained where the prediction task is inherently difficult from valid information alone.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

LAMP: Extracting Local Decision Surfaces From Large Language Models

We introduce LAMP (Local Attribution Mapping Probe), a method that shines light onto a black-box language model's decision surface and studies how reliably a model maps its stated reasons to its reported predictions by approximating a decision surface. LAMP treats the model's own self-reported explanations as a coordinate system and fits a locally linear surrogate that links those weights to the model's output. By doing so, it reveals how much the stated factors steer the model's decisions. We apply LAMP to three tasks: sentiment analysis, controversial-topic detection, and safety-prompt auditing. Across these tasks, LAMP reveals that many language models' locally approximated linear decision landscapes overall agree with human judgments on explanation quality and, on a clinical case-file data set, align with expert assessments. Since LAMP operates without requiring access to model gradients, logits, or internal activations, it serves as a practical and lightweight framework for auditing proprietary language models, and enabling assessment of whether a model appears to behave consistently with the explanations it provides.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Evolutionary System Prompt Learning for Reinforcement Learning in LLMs

Building agentic systems that can autonomously self-improve from experience is a longstanding goal of AI. Large language models (LLMs) today primarily self-improve via two mechanisms: self-reflection for context updates, and reinforcement learning (RL) for weight updates. In this work, we propose Evolutionary System Prompt Learning (E-SPL), a method for jointly improving model contexts and model weights. In each RL iteration, E-SPL samples trajectories under multiple system prompts in parallel, then jointly applies RL updates to LLM weights and evolutionary updates to system prompts. System prompts evolve via mutation and crossover, two genetic operators driven by LLM self-reflection; selection is based on relative performance ratings updated across RL iterations. E-SPL encourages a natural division between declarative knowledge encoded in prompts and procedural knowledge encoded in weights, resulting in improved performance across reasoning and agentic tasks. For instance, in an easy-to-hard (AIME $\rightarrow$ BeyondAIME) generalization setting, E-SPL improves RL success rate from 38.8% $\rightarrow$ 45.1% while also outperforming reflective prompt evolution (40.0%). Overall, our results demonstrate that RL and system prompt evolution are deeply synergistic, and combining the two yields consistent gains in sample efficiency and generalization. Code: https://github.com/LunjunZhang/E-SPL

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

AIA Forecaster: Technical Report

This technical report describes the AIA Forecaster, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based system for judgmental forecasting using unstructured data. The AIA Forecaster approach combines three core elements: agentic search over high-quality news sources, a supervisor agent that reconciles disparate forecasts for the same event, and a set of statistical calibration techniques to counter behavioral biases in large language models. On the ForecastBench benchmark (Karger et al., 2024), the AIA Forecaster achieves performance equal to human superforecasters, surpassing prior LLM baselines. In addition to reporting on ForecastBench, we also introduce a more challenging forecasting benchmark sourced from liquid prediction markets. While the AIA Forecaster underperforms market consensus on this benchmark, an ensemble combining AIA Forecaster with market consensus outperforms consensus alone, demonstrating that our forecaster provides additive information. Our work establishes a new state of the art in AI forecasting and provides practical, transferable recommendations for future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that verifiably achieves expert-level forecasting at scale.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Of Mice and Machines: A Comparison of Learning Between Real World Mice and RL Agents

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in complex decision-making tasks. This progress raises a natural question: how do these artificial systems compare to biological agents, which have been shaped by millions of years of evolution? To help answer this question, we undertake a comparative study of biological mice and RL agents in a predator-avoidance maze environment. Through this analysis, we identify a striking disparity: RL agents consistently demonstrate a lack of self-preservation instinct, readily risking ``death'' for marginal efficiency gains. These risk-taking strategies are in contrast to biological agents, which exhibit sophisticated risk-assessment and avoidance behaviors. Towards bridging this gap between the biological and artificial, we propose two novel mechanisms that encourage more naturalistic risk-avoidance behaviors in RL agents. Our approach leads to the emergence of naturalistic behaviors, including strategic environment assessment, cautious path planning, and predator avoidance patterns that closely mirror those observed in biological systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Cold Diffusion on the Replay Buffer: Learning to Plan from Known Good States

Learning from demonstrations (LfD) has successfully trained robots to exhibit remarkable generalization capabilities. However, many powerful imitation techniques do not prioritize the feasibility of the robot behaviors they generate. In this work, we explore the feasibility of plans produced by LfD. As in prior work, we employ a temporal diffusion model with fixed start and goal states to facilitate imitation through in-painting. Unlike previous studies, we apply cold diffusion to ensure the optimization process is directed through the agent's replay buffer of previously visited states. This routing approach increases the likelihood that the final trajectories will predominantly occupy the feasible region of the robot's state space. We test this method in simulated robotic environments with obstacles and observe a significant improvement in the agent's ability to avoid these obstacles during planning.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2023

Understanding Hindsight Goal Relabeling from a Divergence Minimization Perspective

Hindsight goal relabeling has become a foundational technique in multi-goal reinforcement learning (RL). The essential idea is that any trajectory can be seen as a sub-optimal demonstration for reaching its final state. Intuitively, learning from those arbitrary demonstrations can be seen as a form of imitation learning (IL). However, the connection between hindsight goal relabeling and imitation learning is not well understood. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to understand hindsight goal relabeling from a divergence minimization perspective. Recasting the goal reaching problem in the IL framework not only allows us to derive several existing methods from first principles, but also provides us with the tools from IL to improve goal reaching algorithms. Experimentally, we find that under hindsight relabeling, Q-learning outperforms behavioral cloning (BC). Yet, a vanilla combination of both hurts performance. Concretely, we see that the BC loss only helps when selectively applied to actions that get the agent closer to the goal according to the Q-function. Our framework also explains the puzzling phenomenon wherein a reward of (-1, 0) results in significantly better performance than a (0, 1) reward for goal reaching.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

World Model as a Graph: Learning Latent Landmarks for Planning

Planning - the ability to analyze the structure of a problem in the large and decompose it into interrelated subproblems - is a hallmark of human intelligence. While deep reinforcement learning (RL) has shown great promise for solving relatively straightforward control tasks, it remains an open problem how to best incorporate planning into existing deep RL paradigms to handle increasingly complex environments. One prominent framework, Model-Based RL, learns a world model and plans using step-by-step virtual rollouts. This type of world model quickly diverges from reality when the planning horizon increases, thus struggling at long-horizon planning. How can we learn world models that endow agents with the ability to do temporally extended reasoning? In this work, we propose to learn graph-structured world models composed of sparse, multi-step transitions. We devise a novel algorithm to learn latent landmarks that are scattered (in terms of reachability) across the goal space as the nodes on the graph. In this same graph, the edges are the reachability estimates distilled from Q-functions. On a variety of high-dimensional continuous control tasks ranging from robotic manipulation to navigation, we demonstrate that our method, named L3P, significantly outperforms prior work, and is oftentimes the only method capable of leveraging both the robustness of model-free RL and generalization of graph-search algorithms. We believe our work is an important step towards scalable planning in reinforcement learning.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2019

Third-Person Imitation Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) makes it possible to train agents capable of achieving sophisticated goals in complex and uncertain environments. A key difficulty in reinforcement learning is specifying a reward function for the agent to optimize. Traditionally, imitation learning in RL has been used to overcome this problem. Unfortunately, hitherto imitation learning methods tend to require that demonstrations are supplied in the first-person: the agent is provided with a sequence of states and a specification of the actions that it should have taken. While powerful, this kind of imitation learning is limited by the relatively hard problem of collecting first-person demonstrations. Humans address this problem by learning from third-person demonstrations: they observe other humans perform tasks, infer the task, and accomplish the same task themselves. In this paper, we present a method for unsupervised third-person imitation learning. Here third-person refers to training an agent to correctly achieve a simple goal in a simple environment when it is provided a demonstration of a teacher achieving the same goal but from a different viewpoint; and unsupervised refers to the fact that the agent receives only these third-person demonstrations, and is not provided a correspondence between teacher states and student states. Our methods primary insight is that recent advances from domain confusion can be utilized to yield domain agnostic features which are crucial during the training process. To validate our approach, we report successful experiments on learning from third-person demonstrations in a pointmass domain, a reacher domain, and inverted pendulum.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Some Considerations on Learning to Explore via Meta-Reinforcement Learning

We consider the problem of exploration in meta reinforcement learning. Two new meta reinforcement learning algorithms are suggested: E-MAML and E-$\text{RL}^2$. Results are presented on a novel environment we call `Krazy World' and a set of maze environments. We show E-MAML and E-$\text{RL}^2$ deliver better performance on tasks where exploration is important.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2018

Transfer Learning for Estimating Causal Effects using Neural Networks

We develop new algorithms for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, combining recent developments in transfer learning for neural networks with insights from the causal inference literature. By taking advantage of transfer learning, we are able to efficiently use different data sources that are related to the same underlying causal mechanisms. We compare our algorithms with those in the extant literature using extensive simulation studies based on large-scale voter persuasion experiments and the MNIST database. Our methods can perform an order of magnitude better than existing benchmarks while using a fraction of the data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Evolved Policy Gradients

We propose a metalearning approach for learning gradient-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. The idea is to evolve a differentiable loss function, such that an agent, which optimizes its policy to minimize this loss, will achieve high rewards. The loss is parametrized via temporal convolutions over the agent's experience. Because this loss is highly flexible in its ability to take into account the agent's history, it enables fast task learning. Empirical results show that our evolved policy gradient algorithm (EPG) achieves faster learning on several randomized environments compared to an off-the-shelf policy gradient method. We also demonstrate that EPG's learned loss can generalize to out-of-distribution test time tasks, and exhibits qualitatively different behavior from other popular metalearning algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

One-Shot Imitation Learning

Imitation learning has been commonly applied to solve different tasks in isolation. This usually requires either careful feature engineering, or a significant number of samples. This is far from what we desire: ideally, robots should be able to learn from very few demonstrations of any given task, and instantly generalize to new situations of the same task, without requiring task-specific engineering. In this paper, we propose a meta-learning framework for achieving such capability, which we call one-shot imitation learning. Specifically, we consider the setting where there is a very large set of tasks, and each task has many instantiations. For example, a task could be to stack all blocks on a table into a single tower, another task could be to place all blocks on a table into two-block towers, etc. In each case, different instances of the task would consist of different sets of blocks with different initial states. At training time, our algorithm is presented with pairs of demonstrations for a subset of all tasks. A neural net is trained that takes as input one demonstration and the current state (which initially is the initial state of the other demonstration of the pair), and outputs an action with the goal that the resulting sequence of states and actions matches as closely as possible with the second demonstration. At test time, a demonstration of a single instance of a new task is presented, and the neural net is expected to perform well on new instances of this new task. The use of soft attention allows the model to generalize to conditions and tasks unseen in the training data. We anticipate that by training this model on a much greater variety of tasks and settings, we will obtain a general system that can turn any demonstrations into robust policies that can accomplish an overwhelming variety of tasks. Videos available at https://bit.ly/nips2017-oneshot .

cs.AI↗

arXiv2015

Incentivizing Exploration In Reinforcement Learning With Deep Predictive Models

Achieving efficient and scalable exploration in complex domains poses a major challenge in reinforcement learning. While Bayesian and PAC-MDP approaches to the exploration problem offer strong formal guarantees, they are often impractical in higher dimensions due to their reliance on enumerating the state-action space. Hence, exploration in complex domains is often performed with simple epsilon-greedy methods. In this paper, we consider the challenging Atari games domain, which requires processing raw pixel inputs and delayed rewards. We evaluate several more sophisticated exploration strategies, including Thompson sampling and Boltzman exploration, and propose a new exploration method based on assigning exploration bonuses from a concurrently learned model of the system dynamics. By parameterizing our learned model with a neural network, we are able to develop a scalable and efficient approach to exploration bonuses that can be applied to tasks with complex, high-dimensional state spaces. In the Atari domain, our method provides the most consistent improvement across a range of games that pose a major challenge for prior methods. In addition to raw game-scores, we also develop an AUC-100 metric for the Atari Learning domain to evaluate the impact of exploration on this benchmark.

cs.AI↗