arXiv subjects

Brandon Hensley

Publications and source records attributed to Brandon Hensley.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Lifecycle and Emission Properties of PAHs in Cosmological Hydrodynamic Galaxy Formation Simulations

We present the first cosmological model for the lifecycle and luminous properties of PAHs in galaxies as they evolve from z=6-->0. We model 40 zoom-in galaxies, coupled with an on-the-fly model for the evolution of dust grains in the ISM. We assume that PAHs are ultrasmall (a < 13 Angstrom) carbonaceous dust grains, and couple this model with single-photon excitation calculations to compute the emergent mid-infrared spectra. (1) If we assume that dust is large upon formation, then PAHs are naturally able to form in situ in the ISM via grain-grain shattering. Interstellar collision velocities increase in low density, diffuse gas in our model; as galaxies evolve, the increase in fractional mass of diffuse gas drives an increase in grain-grain collision velocities and a corresponding rise in the PAH mass fraction (qPAH) from ~5 x 10^{-4} at z~4 to ~10^{-2} at z~0. (2) Increased PAH production in the diffuse ISM results in an inverse relationship between qPAH and the molecular gas fraction. (3) The PAH light-to-mass ratio scales linearly with the radiation field intensity (LPAH/MPAH ~ G_0) but anti-correlates with qPAH, because high-Sigma_SFR galaxies have a denser ISM that suppresses shattering. This means the physical qPAH and observed LPAH/LFIR do not evolve in lockstep. (4) The PAH-metallicity relationship (PZR) arises naturally in this framework: galaxies enrich and grow their diffuse ISM fraction simultaneously, linking rising metallicity to rising qPAH. Our models represent the first to reproduce the PZR observed across z=0-2. (5) The LPAH-SFR and LPAH-M_mol relations emerge from two effects: more massive galaxies have larger PAH reservoirs, and higher-SFR galaxies excite their PAHs more efficiently per unit mass. Taken together, these results suggest that grain-grain shattering in the diffuse ISM is the main driver behind the evolution of cosmic PAH abundances.

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arXiv2026

Analyzing PAHs as a Tracer of Anomalous Microwave Emission Near the Galactic Plane Using the COSMOGLOBE DIRBE Reduction

The physical mechanism producing Anomalous Microwave Emission (AME) has been an unresolved puzzle for close to 30 years. One candidate mechanism is rotational emission from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) which can have the necessary electric dipole moment and size distribution to account for the AME in representative interstellar environments. However, previous investigations have found that AME is better correlated with the far-infrared dust emission rather than the PAH emission. In this work we analyze the correlations between the AME and the PAH and far-infrared dust emission using the 3.3 $\mu$m PAH emission feature as observed by band 3 of the Diffuse Infrared Background Experiment (DIRBE). This analysis builds on previous work conducted in individual molecular clouds and extends it into fainter, more diffuse structures. In addition, we utilize the COSMOGLOBE DIRBE reduction for this work, building on previous studies that used the original DIRBE data set. We find that the AME is better correlated with far-infrared dust emission ($\rho\sim$0.9) than the PAH emission ($\rho\sim$0.7) in the central $|b|\leq$ 10\degree\ region of the sky. This could indicate either that non-PAH dust grains or an alternative physical emission mechanism is primarily responsible for the AME in the Galactic Plane, or that the excitation conditions for mid-infrared emission and for AME from PAHs differ substantially.

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arXiv2025

Evidence for cloud-to-cloud variations in the ratio of polarized thermal dust emission to starlight polarization

The correlation between optical starlight polarization and polarized thermal dust emission can be used to infer intrinsic dust properties. This correlation is quantified by the ratio Rp/p, which has been measured to be 5.42 +/- 0.05 MJy sr^-1 at 353 GHz when averaged over large areas of the sky. We investigate this correlation using newly published stellar polarimetric data densely sampling a continuous sky region of ~4 square degrees at intermediate Galactic latitude. We combine RoboPol optical polarization measurements for 1,430 stars with submillimeter data from the Planck satellite at 353 GHz. We perform linear fits between the Planck (Qs, Us) and optical (qv, uv) Stokes parameters, accounting for the differences in resolution between the two datasets as well as the distribution of clouds along the line of sight. We find that in this region of the sky the Rp/p value is 3.67 +/- 0.05 MJy sr^-1, indicating a significantly shallower slope than that found previously using different stellar samples. We also find significant differences in the fitted slopes when fitting the Qs-qv and Us-uv data separately. We explore two explanations using mock data: miscalibration of polarization angle and variations in Rp/p along the line of sight due to multiple clouds. We show that the former can produce differences in the correlations of Qs-qv and Us-uv, but large miscalibration angles would be needed to reproduce the magnitude of the observed differences. Our simulations favor the interpretation that Rp/p differs between the two dominant clouds that overlap on the sky in this region. The difference in Rp/p suggests that the two clouds may have distinct dust polarimetric properties. With knowledge from the tomographic decomposition of the stellar polarization, we find that one cloud appears to dominate the correlation of Us-uv, while both clouds contribute to the correlation of the Qs-qv data.

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arXiv2025

Statistical Analysis of PAHs as a Tracer of Anomalous Microwave Emission Using DIRBE Data

We use archival data from the Diffuse Infrared Background Experiment (DIRBE) to map the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) 3.3 $\mu$m emission feature and analyze its correlation with AME in 98 compact sources identified by the Planck collaboration. We find that while FIR thermal dust emission continues to be a better tracer of AME in most of the considered regions, 17% of the AME sources are better correlated with emission from small PAHs as traced by DIRBE. Furthermore, of the 27 sources which were identified as highly significant AME detections in the Planck analysis, 37% prefer PAHs as an AME tracer. Further work is required to understand to what extent local interstellar conditions are affecting PAH emission mechanisms and to reveal the underlying carriers of AME.

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arXiv2025

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the High-redshift Universe: Prospect of the PRIMA FIRESS low-resolution spectroscopy

The integrated luminosity from the features of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) exceeds the luminosity from atomic and molecular emission lines in the star-forming regions in galaxies and is a potential tracer of galaxy-scale star formation and molecular gas content of the high-redshift universe. We simulate the observable PAH spectra using the PRobe far-Infrared Mission for Astrophysics far-infrared enhanced survey spectrometer (FIRESS) and investigate the capability of the FIRESS low-resolution spectroscopy for observing PAH emission spectrum from high-redshift galaxies. Our investigation suggests that (1) PRIMA observations of PAH emission are $\gtrsim10$ times more efficient at detecting galaxies than the VLA observations of CO(1-0) for galaxies with the same infrared luminosity, (2) PRIMA/FIRESS can detect the PAH emission from galaxies with $L_{IR}\sim10^{12}L_{\odot}$ up to the end of reionization (and possibly beyond, if $L_{IR}\sim10^{13}L_{\odot}$), (3) the PAH band ratios measured from a full spectral fitting and from a simple flux "clipping" method are different and vary depending on the interstellar radiation field strength, and (4) PRIMA/FIRESS can also be used as the PAH mapping instrument to measure star formation and redshift of the galaxies in high-redshift protoclusters.

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arXiv2025

The Far-Infrared Enhanced Survey Spectrometer (FIRESS) for PRIMA: Science Drivers

We present the science drivers for the Far-Infrared Enhanced Survey Spectrometer (FIRESS), one of two science instrument on the PRobe Infrared Mission for Astrophysics (PRIMA). FIRESS is designed to meet science objectives in the areas of the origins of planetary atmospheres, the co-evolution of galaxies and supermassive black holes, and the buildup of heavy elements in the Universe. In addition to these drivers, FIRESS is envisioned as a versatile far-infrared spectrometer, capable of addressing science questions in most areas of astrophysics and planetary astronomy as part of a dominant General Observer (GO) program with 2/3 of the current science cases using FIRESS. We summarize how the instrument design choices and parameters enable the main science drivers as well as a broad and vibrant GO program.

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arXiv2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 Maps

We present Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) maps of the Cosmic Microwave Background temperature and polarization anisotropy at arcminute resolution over three frequency bands centered on 98, 150 and 220 GHz. The maps are based on data collected with the AdvancedACT camera over the period 2017--2022 and cover 19,000 square degrees with a median combined depth of 10 uK arcmin. We describe the instrument, mapmaking and map properties and illustrate them with a number of figures and tables. The ACT DR6 maps and derived products are available on LAMBDA at https://lambda.gsfc.nasa.gov/product/act/actadv_prod_table.html. We also provide an interactive web atlas at https://phy-act1.princeton.edu/public/snaess/actpol/dr6/atlas and HiPS data sets in Aladin (e.g. https://alasky.cds.unistra.fr/ACT/DR4DR6/color_CMB).

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arXiv2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 Power Spectra, Likelihoods and $\Lambda$CDM Parameters

We present power spectra of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy in temperature and polarization, measured from the Data Release 6 maps made from Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) data. These cover 19,000 deg$^2$ of sky in bands centered at 98, 150 and 220 GHz, with white noise levels three times lower than Planck in polarization. We find that the ACT angular power spectra estimated over 10,000 deg$^2$, and measured to arcminute scales in TT, TE and EE, are well fit by the sum of CMB and foregrounds, where the CMB spectra are described by the $\Lambda$CDM model. Combining ACT with larger-scale Planck data, the joint P-ACT dataset provides tight limits on the ingredients, expansion rate, and initial conditions of the universe. We find similar constraining power, and consistent results, from either the Planck power spectra or from ACT combined with WMAP data, as well as from either temperature or polarization in the joint P-ACT dataset. When combined with CMB lensing from ACT and Planck, and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI DR1, we measure a baryon density of $\Omega_b h^2=0.0226\pm0.0001$, a cold dark matter density of $\Omega_c h^2=0.118\pm0.001$, a Hubble constant of $H_0=68.22\pm0.36$ km/s/Mpc, a spectral index of $n_s=0.974\pm0.003$, and an amplitude of density fluctuations of $\sigma_8=0.813\pm0.005$. Including the DESI DR2 data tightens the Hubble constant to $H_0=68.43\pm0.27$ km/s/Mpc; $\Lambda$CDM parameters agree between the P-ACT and DESI DR2 data at the $1.6\sigma$ level. We find no evidence for excess lensing in the power spectrum, and no departure from spatial flatness. The contribution from Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) anisotropy is detected at high significance; we find evidence for a tilt with suppressed small-scale power compared to our baseline SZ template spectrum, consistent with hydrodynamical simulations with feedback.

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arXiv2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 Constraints on Extended Cosmological Models

We use new cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) to test foundational assumptions of the standard cosmological model and set constraints on extensions to it. We derive constraints from the ACT DR6 power spectra alone, as well as in combination with legacy data from Planck. To break geometric degeneracies, we include ACT and Planck CMB lensing data and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI Year-1, and further add supernovae measurements from Pantheon+ for models that affect the late-time expansion history. We verify the near-scale-invariance (running of the spectral index $d n_s/d\ln k = 0.0062 \pm 0.0052$) and adiabaticity of the primordial perturbations. Neutrino properties are consistent with Standard Model predictions: we find no evidence for new light, relativistic species that are free-streaming ($N_{\rm eff} = 2.86 \pm 0.13$, which combined with external BBN data becomes $N_{\rm eff} = 2.89 \pm 0.11$), for non-zero neutrino masses ($\sum m_\nu < 0.082$ eV at 95% CL), or for neutrino self-interactions. We also find no evidence for self-interacting dark radiation ($N_{\rm idr} < 0.134$), early-universe variation of fundamental constants, early dark energy, primordial magnetic fields, or modified recombination. Our data are consistent with standard BBN, the FIRAS-inferred CMB temperature, a dark matter component that is collisionless and with only a small fraction allowed as axion-like particles, a cosmological constant, and the late-time growth rate predicted by general relativity. We find no statistically significant preference for a departure from the baseline $\Lambda$CDM model. In general, models introduced to increase the Hubble constant or to decrease the amplitude of density fluctuations inferred from the primary CMB are not favored by our data.

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arXiv2024

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 Gravitational Lensing Map and Cosmological Parameters

We present cosmological constraints from a gravitational lensing mass map covering 9400 sq. deg. reconstructed from CMB measurements made by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) from 2017 to 2021. In combination with BAO measurements (from SDSS and 6dF), we obtain the amplitude of matter fluctuations $σ_8 = 0.819 \pm 0.015$ at 1.8% precision, $S_8\equivσ_8({Ω_{\rm m}}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.840\pm0.028$ and the Hubble constant $H_0= (68.3 \pm 1.1)\, \text{km}\,\text{s}^{-1}\,\text{Mpc}^{-1}$ at 1.6% precision. A joint constraint with CMB lensing measured by the Planck satellite yields even more precise values: $σ_8 = 0.812 \pm 0.013$, $S_8\equivσ_8({Ω_{\rm m}}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.831\pm0.023$ and $H_0= (68.1 \pm 1.0)\, \text{km}\,\text{s}^{-1}\,\text{Mpc}^{-1}$. These measurements agree well with $Λ$CDM-model extrapolations from the CMB anisotropies measured by Planck. To compare these constraints to those from the KiDS, DES, and HSC galaxy surveys, we revisit those data sets with a uniform set of assumptions, and find $S_8$ from all three surveys are lower than that from ACT+Planck lensing by varying levels ranging from 1.7-2.1$σ$. These results motivate further measurements and comparison, not just between the CMB anisotropies and galaxy lensing, but also between CMB lensing probing $z\sim 0.5-5$ on mostly-linear scales and galaxy lensing at $z\sim 0.5$ on smaller scales. We combine our CMB lensing measurements with CMB anisotropies to constrain extensions of $Λ$CDM, limiting the sum of the neutrino masses to $\sum m_ν < 0.13$ eV (95% c.l.), for example. Our results provide independent confirmation that the universe is spatially flat, conforms with general relativity, and is described remarkably well by the $Λ$CDM model, while paving a promising path for neutrino physics with gravitational lensing from upcoming ground-based CMB surveys.

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arXiv2024

The Primordial Inflation Explorer (PIXIE): Mission Design and Science Goals

The Primordial Inflation Explorer (PIXIE) is an Explorer-class mission concept to measure the energy spectrum and linear polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). A single cryogenic Fourier transform spectrometer compares the sky to an external blackbody calibration target, measuring the Stokes I, Q, U parameters to levels ~200 Jy/sr in each 2.65 degree diameter beam over the full sky, in each of 300 frequency channels from 28 GHz to 6 THz. With sensitivity over 1000 times greater than COBE/FIRAS, PIXIE opens a broad discovery space for the origin, contents, and evolution of the universe. Measurements of small distortions from a CMB blackbody spectrum provide a robust determination of the mean electron pressure and temperature in the universe while constraining processes including dissipation of primordial density perturbations, black holes, and the decay or annihilation of dark matter. Full-sky maps of linear polarization measure the optical depth to reionization at nearly the cosmic variance limit and constrain models of primordial inflation. Spectra with sub-percent absolute calibration spanning microwave to far-IR wavelengths provide a legacy data set for analyses including line intensity mapping of extragalactic emission and the cosmic infrared background amplitude and anisotropy. We describe the PIXIE instrument sensitivity, foreground subtraction, and anticipated science return from both the baseline 2-year mission and a potential extended mission.

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arXiv2023

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: High-resolution component-separated maps across one-third of the sky

Observations of the millimeter sky contain valuable information on a number of signals, including the blackbody cosmic microwave background (CMB), Galactic emissions, and the Compton-$y$ distortion due to the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect. Extracting new insight into cosmological and astrophysical questions often requires combining multi-wavelength observations to spectrally isolate one component. In this work, we present a new arcminute-resolution Compton-$y$ map, which traces out the line-of-sight-integrated electron pressure, as well as maps of the CMB in intensity and E-mode polarization, across a third of the sky (around 13,000 sq.~deg.). We produce these through a joint analysis of data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 4 and 6 at frequencies of roughly 93, 148, and 225 GHz, together with data from the \textit{Planck} satellite at frequencies between 30 GHz and 545 GHz. We present detailed verification of an internal linear combination pipeline implemented in a needlet frame that allows us to efficiently suppress Galactic contamination and account for spatial variations in the ACT instrument noise. These maps provide a significant advance, in noise levels and resolution, over the existing \textit{Planck} component-separated maps and will enable a host of science goals including studies of cluster and galaxy astrophysics, inferences of the cosmic velocity field, primordial non-Gaussianity searches, and gravitational lensing reconstruction of the CMB.

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arXiv2023

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: A Measurement of the DR6 CMB Lensing Power Spectrum and its Implications for Structure Growth

We present new measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing over $9400$ sq. deg. of the sky. These lensing measurements are derived from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) CMB dataset, which consists of five seasons of ACT CMB temperature and polarization observations. We determine the amplitude of the CMB lensing power spectrum at $2.3\%$ precision ($43\sigma$ significance) using a novel pipeline that minimizes sensitivity to foregrounds and to noise properties. To ensure our results are robust, we analyze an extensive set of null tests, consistency tests, and systematic error estimates and employ a blinded analysis framework. The baseline spectrum is well fit by a lensing amplitude of $A_{\mathrm{lens}}=1.013\pm0.023$ relative to the Planck 2018 CMB power spectra best-fit $\Lambda$CDM model and $A_{\mathrm{lens}}=1.005\pm0.023$ relative to the $\text{ACT DR4} + \text{WMAP}$ best-fit model. From our lensing power spectrum measurement, we derive constraints on the parameter combination $S^{\mathrm{CMBL}}_8 \equiv \sigma_8 \left({\Omega_m}/{0.3}\right)^{0.25}$ of $S^{\mathrm{CMBL}}_8= 0.818\pm0.022$ from ACT DR6 CMB lensing alone and $S^{\mathrm{CMBL}}_8= 0.813\pm0.018$ when combining ACT DR6 and Planck NPIPE CMB lensing power spectra. These results are in excellent agreement with $\Lambda$CDM model constraints from Planck or $\text{ACT DR4} + \text{WMAP}$ CMB power spectrum measurements. Our lensing measurements from redshifts $z\sim0.5$--$5$ are thus fully consistent with $\Lambda$CDM structure growth predictions based on CMB anisotropies probing primarily $z\sim1100$. We find no evidence for a suppression of the amplitude of cosmic structure at low redshifts

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arXiv2023

A Framework for Modeling Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Emission in Galaxy Evolution Simulations

We present a new methodology for simulating mid-infrared emission from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in galaxy evolution simulations. To do this, we combine theoretical models of PAH emission features as they respond to varying interstellar radiation fields, grain size distributions, and ionization states with a new on-the-fly model for dust evolution in hydrodynamic galaxy simulations. We apply these models to 3 idealized arepo galaxy evolution simulations within the smuggle physics framework. We use these simulations to develop numerical experiments investigating the buildup of PAH masses and luminosities in galaxies in idealized analogs of the Milky Way, a dwarf galaxy, and starburst disk. Our main results follow. Galaxies with high specific star formation rates have increased feedback energy per unit mass, and are able to efficiently shatter dust grains, driving up the fraction of ultra small grains. At the same time, in our model large radiation fields per unit gas density convert aliphatic grains into aromatics. The fraction of dust grains in the form of PAHs (q_PAH) can be understood as a consequence of these processes, and in our model PAHs form primarily from interstellar processing (shattering) of larger grains rather than from the growth of smaller grains. We find that the hardness of the radiation field plays a larger role than variations in the grain size distribution in setting the total integrated PAH luminosities, though cosmological simulations are necessary to fully investigate the complex interplay of processes that drive PAH band luminosities in galaxies. Finally, we highlight feature PAH strength variations, cautioning against the usage of emission templates with constant feature strength ratios.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

A study of 90 GHz dust emissivity on molecular cloud and filament scales

Recent observations from the MUSTANG2 instrument on the Green Bank Telescope have revealed evidence of enhanced long-wavelength emission in the dust spectral energy distribution (SED) in the Orion Molecular Cloud (OMC) 2/3 filament on 25" (0.1 pc) scales. Here we present a measurement of the SED on larger spatial scales (map size 0.5-3 degrees or 3-20 pc), at somewhat lower resolution (120", corresponding to 0.25 pc at 400 pc) using data from the Herschel satellite and Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). We then extend the 120"-scale investigation to other regions covered in the Herschel Gould Belt Survey (HGBS) specifically: the dense filaments in the southerly regions of Orion A; Orion B; and Serpens-S. Our dataset in aggregate covers approximately 10 square degrees, with continuum photometry spanning from 160um to 3mm. These OMC 2/3 data display excess emission at 3mm, though less (10.9% excess) than what is seen at higher resolution. Strikingly, we find that the enhancement is present even more strongly in the other filaments we targeted, with an average excess of 42.4% and 30/46 slices showing an inconsistency with the modified blackbody to at least 4σ. Applying this analysis to the other targeted regions, we lay the groundwork for future high-resolution analyses. Additionally, we also consider a two-component dust model motivated by Planck results and an amorphous grain dust model. While both of these have been proposed to explain deviations in emission from a generic modified blackbody (MBB), we find that they have significant drawbacks, requiring many spectral points or lacking experimental data coverage.

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arXiv2022

COMAP Early Science: VI. A First Look at the COMAP Galactic Plane Survey

We present early results from the COMAP Galactic Plane Survey conducted between June 2019 and April 2021, spanning $20^\circ<\ell<40^\circ$ in Galactic longitude and $|b|<1.\!\!^{\circ}5$ in Galactic latitude with an angular resolution of $4.5^{\prime}$. The full survey will span $\ell \sim 20^{\circ}$- $220^{\circ}$ and will be the first large-scale radio continuum survey at $30$ GHz with sub-degree resolution. We present initial results from the first part of the survey, including diffuse emission and spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of HII regions and supernova remnants. Using low and high frequency surveys to constrain free-free and thermal dust emission contributions, we find evidence of excess flux density at $30\,$GHz in six regions that we interpret as anomalous microwave emission. Furthermore we model UCHII contributions using data from the $5\,$GHz CORNISH catalogue and reject this as the cause of the $30\,$GHz excess. Six known supernova remnants (SNR) are detected at $30\,$GHz, and we measure spectral indices consistent with the literature or show evidence of steepening. The flux density of the SNR W44 at $30\,$GHz is consistent with a power-law extrapolation from lower frequencies with no indication of spectral steepening in contrast with recent results from the Sardinia Radio Telescope. We also extract five hydrogen radio recombination lines to map the warm ionized gas, which can be used to estimate electron temperatures or to constrain continuum free-free emission. The full COMAP Galactic plane survey, to be released in 2023/2024, will be an invaluable resource for Galactic astrophysics.

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arXiv2022

Snowmass2021 Cosmic Frontier: Cosmic Microwave Background Measurements White Paper

This is a solicited whitepaper for the Snowmass 2021 community planning exercise. The paper focuses on measurements and science with the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). The CMB is foundational to our understanding of modern physics and continues to be a powerful tool driving our understanding of cosmology and particle physics. In this paper, we outline the broad and unique impact of CMB science for the High Energy Cosmic Frontier in the upcoming decade. We also describe the progression of ground-based CMB experiments, which shows that the community is prepared to develop the key capabilities and facilities needed to achieve these transformative CMB measurements.

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arXiv2022

COMAP Early Science: V. Constraints and Forecasts at $z \sim 3$

We present the current state of models for the $z\sim3$ carbon monoxide (CO) line-intensity signal targeted by the CO Mapping Array Project (COMAP) Pathfinder in the context of its early science results. Our fiducial model, relating dark matter halo properties to CO luminosities, informs parameter priors with empirical models of the galaxy-halo connection and previous CO(1-0) observations. The Pathfinder early science data spanning wavenumbers $k=0.051$-$0.62\,$Mpc$^{-1}$ represent the first direct 3D constraint on the clustering component of the CO(1-0) power spectrum. Our 95% upper limit on the redshift-space clustering amplitude $A_{\rm clust}\lesssim70\,μ$K$^2$ greatly improves on the indirect upper limit of $420\,μ$K$^2$ reported from the CO Power Spectrum Survey (COPSS) measurement at $k\sim1\,$Mpc$^{-1}$. The COMAP limit excludes a subset of models from previous literature, and constrains interpretation of the COPSS results, demonstrating the complementary nature of COMAP and interferometric CO surveys. Using line bias expectations from our priors, we also constrain the squared mean line intensity-bias product, $\langle{Tb}\rangle^2\lesssim50\,μ$K$^2$, and the cosmic molecular gas density, $ρ_\text{H2}<2.5\times10^8\,M_\odot\,$Mpc$^{-3}$ (95% upper limits). Based on early instrument performance and our current CO signal estimates, we forecast that the five-year Pathfinder campaign will detect the CO power spectrum with overall signal-to-noise of 9-17. Between then and now, we also expect to detect the CO-galaxy cross-spectrum using overlapping galaxy survey data, enabling enhanced inferences of cosmic star-formation and galaxy-evolution history.

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