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Brendan Wallace

Publications and source records attributed to Brendan Wallace.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Trail systems self-organize through individual route optimization

As animals, including humans, walk, they compact the vegetation and ground beneath them, reducing the cost of movement for subsequent travelers. From this positive feedback emerge networks of trails which allow for efficient movement and store generational-scale information about the environment. Models simulating this process show how individuals following local cues produce trail systems with many of the features of real-world networks. However, little has been done to investigate walkers with more complete knowledge of their environment and the abilities to plan their behavior intelligently. Here we introduce a simple general model for trail formation, based on minimizing cost of movement by individuals. As in real environments, our simulations produce a striking variety of complex trail networks. We show that these trail systems optimally connect space according to the spatial needs of the walkers, that the geometry of those trail systems matches theoretical predictions and that the systems they generate may fall into multiple attracting states. As technological advances allow us to quantify trail systems across diverse habitats and species, our model provides a theoretical foundation for empirical research on animal trails and for understanding the emergence of human transportation networks, with implications for urban design.

nlin.AO↗

The unintended consequences of inconsistent pandemic control policies

Controlling the spread of COVID-19 - even after a licensed vaccine is available - requires the effective use of non-pharmaceutical interventions: physical distancing, limits on group sizes, mask wearing, etc. To date, such interventions have neither been uniformly nor systematically implemented in most countries. For example, even when under strict stay-at-home orders, numerous jurisdictions granted exceptions and/or were in close proximity to locations with entirely different regulations in place. Here, we investigate the impact of such geographic inconsistencies in epidemic control policies by coupling search and mobility data to a simple mathematical model of SARS-COV2 transmission. Our results show that while stay-at-home orders decrease contacts in most areas of the US, some specific activities and venues often see an increase in attendance. Indeed, over the month of March 2020, between 10 and 30% of churches in the US saw increases in attendance; even as the total number of visits to churches declined nationally. This heterogeneity, where certain venues see substantial increases in attendance while others close, suggests that closure can cause individuals to find an open venue, even if that requires longer-distance travel. And, indeed, the average distance travelled to churches in the US rose by 13% over the same period. Strikingly, our model reveals that across a broad range of model parameters, partial measures can often be worse than none at all where individuals not complying with policies by traveling to neighboring areas can create epidemics when the outbreak would otherwise have been controlled. Taken together, our data analysis and modelling results highlight the potential unintended consequences of inconsistent epidemic control policies and stress the importance of balancing the societal needs of a population with the risk of an outbreak growing into a large epidemic.

q-bio.PE↗