arXiv subjects

Brendon McConnell

Publications and source records attributed to Brendon McConnell.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

What's Logs Got to do With it: On the Perils of log Dependent Variables and Difference-in-Differences

The log transformation of the dependent variable is not innocuous when using a difference-in-differences (DD) model. With a dependent variable in logs, the DD term captures an approximation of the proportional difference in growth rates across groups. As I show with both simulations and two empirical examples, if the baseline outcome distributions are sufficiently different across groups, the DD parameter for a log-specification can be different in sign to that of a levels-specification. I provide a condition, based on (i) the aggregate time effect, and (ii) the difference in relative baseline outcome means, for when the sign-switch will occur.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2022

Kicking You When You're Already Down: The Multipronged Impact of Austerity on Crime

The UK Welfare Reform Act 2012 imposed a series of deep welfare cuts, which disproportionately affected ex-ante poorer areas. In this paper, we provide the first evidence of the impact of these austerity measures on two different but complementary elements of crime -- the crime rate and the less-studied concentration of crime -- over the period 2011-2015 in England and Wales, and document four new facts. First, areas more exposed to the welfare reforms experience increased levels of crime, an effect driven by a rise in violent crime. Second, both violent and property crime become more concentrated within an area due to the welfare reforms. Third, it is ex-ante more deprived neighborhoods that bear the brunt of the crime increases over this period. Fourth, we find no evidence that the welfare reforms increased recidivism, suggesting that the changes in crime we find are likely driven by new criminals. Combining these results, we document unambiguous evidence of a negative spillover of the welfare reforms at the heart of the UK government's austerity program on social welfare, which reinforced the direct inequality-worsening effect of this program. Guided by a hedonic house price model, we calculate the welfare effects implied by the cuts in order to provide a financial quantification of the impact of the reform. We document an implied welfare loss of the policy -- borne by the public -- that far exceeds the savings made to government coffers.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Racial Sentencing Disparities and Differential Progression Through the Criminal Justice System: Evidence From Linked Federal and State Court Data

Several key actors -- police, prosecutors, judges -- can alter the course of individuals passing through the multi-staged criminal justice system. I use linked arrest-sentencing data for federal courts from 1994-2010 to examine the role that earlier stages play when estimating Black-white sentencing gaps. I find no evidence of sample selection at play in the federal setting, suggesting federal judges are largely responsible for racial sentencing disparities. In contrast, I document substantial sample selection bias in two different state courts systems. Estimates of racial and ethnic sentencing gaps that ignore selection underestimate the true disparities by 15% and 13% respectively.

econ.GN↗