arXiv subjects

Brian C. Thomas

Publications and source records attributed to Brian C. Thomas.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

Solar irradiance changes and phytoplankton productivity in Earth's ocean following astrophysical ionizing radiation events

Two atmospheric responses to simulated astrophysical ionizing radiation events significant to life on Earth are production of odd-nitrogen species, especially NO2, and subsequent depletion of stratospheric ozone. Ozone depletion increases incident short-wavelength ultraviolet radiation (UVB, 280-315 nm) and longer ( > 600 nm) wavelengths of photosynthetically available radiation (PAR, 400 -700 nm). On the other hand, the NO2 haze decreases atmospheric transmission in the long-wavelength UVA (315-400 nm) and short wavelength PAR. Here we use the results of previous simulations of incident spectral irradiance following an ionizing radiation event to predict changes in Terran productivity focusing on photosynthesis of marine phytoplankton. The prediction is based on a spectral model of photosynthetic response developed for the dominant genera in central regions of the ocean (Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus), and remote-sensing based observations of spectral water transparency, temperature, wind speed and mixed layer depth. Predicted productivity declined after a simulated ionizing event, but the effect integrated over the water column was small. For integrations taking into account the full depth range of PAR transmission (down to 0.1% of utilizable PAR), the decrease was at most 2-3% (depending on strain), with larger effects (5-7%) for integrations just to the depth of the surface mixed layer. The deeper integrations were most affected by the decreased utilizable PAR at depth due to the NO2 haze, whereas shallower integrations were most affected by the increased surface UV.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

Atmospheric ionization by high-fluence, hard spectrum solar proton events and their probable appearance in the ice core archive

Solar energetic particles ionize the atmosphere, leading to production of nitrogen oxides. It has been suggested that some such events are visible as layers of nitrate in ice cores, yielding archives of energetic, high fluence solar proton events (SPEs). There has been controversy, due to slowness of transport for these species down from the upper stratosphere; past numerical simulations based on an analytic calculation have shown very little ionization below the mid stratosphere. These simulations suffer from deficiencies: they consider only soft SPEs and narrow energy ranges; spectral fits are poorly chosen; with few exceptions secondary particles in air showers are ignored. Using improved simulations that follow development of the proton-induced air shower, we find consistency with recent experiments showing substantial excess ionization down to 5 km. We compute nitrate available from the 23 February 1956 SPE, which had a high fluence, hard spectrum, and well-resolved associated nitrate peak in a Greenland ice core. For the first time, we find this event can account for ice core data with timely (~ 2 months) transport downward between 46 km and the surface, thus indicating an archive of high fluence, hard spectrum SPE covering the last several millennia. We discuss interpretations of this result, as well as the lack of a clearly-defined nitrate spike associated with the soft-spectrum 3-4 August 1972 SPE. We suggest that hard-spectrum SPEs, especially in the 6 months of polar winter, are detectable in ice cores, and that more work needs to be done to investigate this.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

Ground-level ozone following astrophysical ionizing radiation events: an additional biological hazard?

Astrophysical ionizing radiation events such as supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and solar proton events have been recognized as a potential threat to life on Earth, primarily through depletion of stratospheric ozone and subsequent increase in solar UV radiation at Earth's surface and in the upper levels of the ocean. Other work has also considered the potential impact of nitric acid rainout, concluding that no significant threat is likely. Not yet studied to-date is the potential impact of ozone produced in the lower atmosphere following an ionizing radiation event. Ozone is a known irritant to organisms on land and in water and therefore may be a significant additional hazard. Using previously completed atmospheric chemistry modeling we have examined the amount of ozone produced in the lower atmosphere for the case of a gamma-ray burst and find that the values are too small to pose a significant additional threat to the biosphere. These results may be extended to other ionizing radiation events, including supernovae and extreme solar proton events.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

Solar irradiance changes and photobiological effects at Earth's surface following astrophysical ionizing radiation events

Astrophysical ionizing radiation events have been recognized as a potential threat to life on Earth, primarily through depletion of stratospheric ozone and subsequent increase in surface-level solar ultraviolet radiation. Simulations of the atmospheric effects of a variety of events (such as supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and solar proton events) have been previously published, along with estimates of biological damage at Earth's surface. In this work, we employed the TUV radiative transfer model to expand and improve calculations of surface-level irradiance and biological impacts following an ionizing radiation event. We considered changes in surface-level UVB, UVA, and photosynthetically active radiation (visible light) for clear-sky conditions and fixed aerosol parameter values. We also considered a wide range of biological effects on organisms ranging from humans to phytoplankton. We found that past work overestimated UVB irradiance, but that relative estimates for increase in exposure to DNA damaging radiation are still similar to our improved calculations. We also found that the intensity of biologically damaging radiation varies widely with organism and specific impact considered; these results have implications for biosphere-level damage following astrophysical ionizing radiation events. When considering changes in surface-level visible light irradiance, we found that, contrary to previous assumptions, a decrease in irradiance is only present for a short time in very limited geographical areas; instead we found a net increase for most of the modeled time-space region. This result has implications for proposed climate changes associated with ionizing radiation events.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2013

Terrestrial effects of possible astrophysical sources of an AD 774-775 increase in 14C production

We examine possible sources of a substantial increase in tree ring 14C measurements for the years AD 774-775. Contrary to claims regarding a coronal mass ejection (CME), the required CME energy is not several orders of magnitude greater than known solar events. We consider solar proton events (SPEs) with three different fluences and two different spectra. The data may be explained by an event with fluence about one order of magnitude beyond the October 1989 SPE. Two hard spectrum cases considered here result in moderate ozone depletion, so no mass extinction is implied, though we do predict increases in erythema and damage to plants from enhanced solar UV. We are able to rule out an event with a very soft spectrum that causes severe ozone depletion and subsequent biological impacts. Nitrate enhancements are consistent with their apparent absence in ice core data. The modern technological implications of such an event may be extreme, and considering recent confirmation of superflares on solar-type stars, this issue merits attention.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Causes of an AD 774-775 14C increase

Atmospheric 14C production is a potential window into the energy of solar proton and other cosmic ray events. It was previously concluded that results from AD 774-775 are orders of magnitude greater than known solar events. We find that the coronal mass ejection energy based on 14C production is much smaller than claimed, but still substantially larger than the maximum historical Carrington Event of 1859. Such an event would cause great damage to modern technology, and in view of recent confirmation of superflares on solar-type stars, this issue merits attention.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2012

Getting the Swing of Surface Gravity

Sports are a popular and effective way to illustrate physics principles. Baseball in particular presents a number of opportunities to motivate student interest and teach concepts. Several articles have appeared in this journal on this topic, illustrating a wide variety of areas of physics. In addition, several websites and an entire book are available. In this paper we describe a student-designed project that illustrates the relative surface gravity on the Earth, Sun and other solar-system bodies using baseball. We describe the project and its results here as an example of a simple, fun, and student-driven use of baseball to illustrate an important physics principle.

physics.ed-ph↗

arXiv2011

Revisiting the Carrington Event: Updated modeling of atmospheric effects

The terrestrial effects of major solar events such as the Carrington white-light flare and subsequent geomagnetic storm of August-September 1859 are of considerable interest, especially in light of recent predictions that such extreme events will be more likely over the coming decades. Here we present results of modeling the atmospheric effects, especially production of odd nitrogen compounds and subsequent depletion of ozone, by solar protons associated with the Carrington event. This study combines approaches from two previous studies of the atmospheric effect of this event. We investigate changes in NOy compounds as well as depletion of O3 using a two-dimensional atmospheric chemistry and dynamics model. Atmospheric ionization is computed using a range-energy relation with four different proxy proton spectra associated with more recent well-known solar proton events. We find that changes in atmospheric constituents are in reasonable agreement with previous studies, but effects of the four proxy spectra used vary more widely than found by one of those studies. In particular, we find greater impact for harder proton spectra, given a constant total fluence. We report computed nitrate deposition values and compare to measured values in ice cores. Finally, we briefly investigate the impact of the modeled ozone depletion on surface-level solar ultraviolet radiation.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2011

Astrophysical Ionizing Radiation and the Earth: A Brief Review and Census of Intermittent Intense Sources

Cosmic radiation backgrounds are a constraint on life, and their distribution will affect the Galactic Habitable Zone. Life on Earth has developed in the context of these backgrounds, and characterizing event rates will elaborate the important influences. This in turn can be a base for comparison with other potential life-bearing planets. In this review we estimate the intensities and rates of occurrence of many kinds of strong radiation bursts by astrophysical entities ranging from gamma-ray bursts at cosmological distances to the Sun itself. Many of these present potential hazards to the biosphere: on timescales long compared with human history, the probability of an event intense enough to disrupt life on the land surface or in the oceans becomes large. We enumerate the known sources of radiation and characterize their intensities at the Earth and rates or upper limits on these quantities. When possible, we estimate a "lethal interval", our best estimate of how often a major extinction-level event is probable given the current state of knowledge; we base these estimates on computed or expected depletion of stratospheric ozone. In general, moderate level events are dominated by the Sun, but the far more severe infrequent events are probably dominated by gamma-ray bursts and supernovae. We note for the first time that so-called "short-hard" gamma-ray bursts are a substantial threat, comparable in magnitude to supernovae and greater than that of the higher-luminosity long bursts considered in most past work. Given their precursors, short bursts may come with little or no warning.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2010

Can periodicity in low altitude cloud cover be induced by cosmic ray variability in the extragalactic shock model?

Variation in high energy cosmic rays (HECRs) has been proposed to explain a 62 My periodicity in terrestrial fossil biodiversity. It has been suggested that the infall of our galaxy toward the Virgo cluster could generate an extragalactic shock, accelerating charged particles and exposing the earth to a flux of high energy cosmic rays (HECRs). The oscillation of the Sun perpendicular to the galactic plane could induce 62 My periodicity in the HECR flux on the Earth, with a magnitude much higher than the Galactic cosmic ray change we see in a solar cycle. This mechanism could potentially explain the observed 62 My periodicity in terrestrial biodiversity over the past 500 My. In addition to direct effects on life from secondaries, HECRs induced air showers ionize the atmosphere leading to changes in atmospheric chemistry and microphysical processes that can lead to cloud formation including low altitude cloud cover. An increase in ionization changes the global electric circuit which could enhance the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) through microphysical processes such as electroscavenging and ion mediated nucleation, leading to an increase in the cloud cover. This could increase the albedo and reduce the solar flux reaching the ground, reducing the global temperature. Using an existing model, we have calculated the enhancement in atmospheric ionization at low altitudes resulting from exposure to HECRs. We use a conservative model to estimate the change in low altitude cloud cover from this increased ionization.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2010

Cometary airbursts and atmospheric chemistry: Tunguska and a candidate Younger Dryas event

We find agreement between models of atmospheric chemistry changes from ionization for the 1908 Tunguska airburst event and nitrate enhancement in GISP2H and GISP2 ice cores, plus an unexplained ammonium spike. We then consider a candidate cometary impact at the Younger Dryas onset (YD). The large estimated NO_x production and O_3 depletion are beyond accurate extrapolation, but the ice core peak is much lower, possibly because of insufficient sampling resolution. Ammonium and nitrate spikes have been attributed to biomass burning at YD onset in both GRIP and GISP2 ice cores. A similar result is well-resolved in Tunguska ice core data, but that forest fire was far too small to account for this. Direct input of ammonia from a comet into the atmosphere is adequate for YD ice core data, but not Tunguska data. An analog of the Haber process with hydrogen contributed by cometary or surface water, atmospheric nitrogen, high pressures, and possibly catalytic iron from a comet could in principle produce ammonia, accounting for the peaks in both data sets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2010

Lookup tables to compute high energy cosmic ray induced atmospheric ionization and changes in atmospheric chemistry

A variety of events such as gamma-ray bursts and supernovae may expose the Earth to an increased flux of high-energy cosmic rays, with potentially important effects on the biosphere. Existing atmospheric chemistry software does not have the capability of incorporating the effects of substantial cosmic ray flux above 10 GeV . An atmospheric code, the NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center two-dimensional (latitude, altitude) time-dependent atmospheric model (NGSFC), is used to study atmospheric chemistry changes. Using CORSIKA, we have created tables that can be used to compute high energy cosmic ray (10 GeV - 1 PeV) induced atmospheric ionization and also, with the use of the NGSFC code, can be used to simulate the resulting atmospheric chemistry changes. We discuss the tables, their uses, weaknesses, and strengths.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2009

Gamma-Ray Bursts as a Threat to Life on Earth

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are likely to have made a number of significant impacts on the Earth during the last billion years. The gamma radiation from a burst within a few kiloparsecs would quickly deplete much of the Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing an increase in solar ultraviolet radiation reaching the surface. This radiation is harmful to life, damaging DNA and causing sunburn. In addition, NO2 produced in the atmosphere would cause a decrease in visible sunlight reaching the surface and could cause global cooling. Nitric acid rain could stress portions of the biosphere, but the increased nitrate deposition could be helpful to land plants. We have used a two-dimensional atmospheric model to investigate the effects on the Earth's atmosphere of GRBs delivering a range of fluences, at various latitudes, at the equinoxes and solstices, and at different times of day. We have estimated DNA damage levels caused by increased solar UVB radiation, reduction in solar visible light due to NO2 opacity, and deposition of nitrates through rainout of HNO3. In this paper I give a concise review of this work and discuss current and future work on extending and improving our estimates of the terrestrial impact of a GRB.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2009

Late Ordovician geographic patterns of extinction compared with simulations of astrophysical ionizing radiation damage

Based on the intensity and rates of various kinds of intense ionizing radiation events such as supernovae and gamma-ray bursts, it is likely that the Earth has been subjected to one or extinction level events during the Phanerozoic. These induce changes in atmospheric chemistry so that the level of Solar ultraviolet-B radiation reaching the surface and near-surface waters may be doubled for up to a decade. This UVB level is known from experiment to be more than enough to kill off many kinds of organisms, particularly phytoplankton. It could easily induce a crash of the photosynthetic-based food chain in the oceans. Regularities in the latitudinal distribution of damage are apparent in simulations of the atmospheric changes. We previously proposed that the late Ordovician extinction is a plausible candidate for a contribution from an ionizing radiation event, based on environmental selectivity in trilobites. To test a null hypothesis based on this proposal, we confront latitudinal differential extinction rates predicted from the simulations with data from a published analysis of latitudinal gradients in the Ordovician extinction. The pattern of UVB damage always shows a strong maximum at some latitude, with substantially lower intensity to the north and south of this maximum. We find that the pattern of damage predicted from our simulations is consistent with the data assuming a burst approximately over the South Pole, and no further north than -75 degrees. We predict that any land mass (such as parts of north China, Laurentia, and New Guinea) which then lay north of the equator should be a refuge from UVB effects, and show a different pattern of extinction in the first strike of the end-Ordovician extinction, if induced by such a radiation event.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

Does nitrate deposition following astrophysical ionizing radiation events pose an additional threat to amphibians?

It is known that amphibians are especially susceptible to the combination of heightened UVB radiation and increased nitrate concentrations. Various astrophysical events have been suggested as sources of ionizing radiation that could pose a threat to life on Earth, through destruction of the ozone layer and subsequent increase in UVB, followed by deposition of nitrate. In this study, we investigate whether the nitrate deposition following an ionizing event is sufficiently large to cause an additional stress beyond that of the heightened UVB previously considered. We have converted predicted nitrate depositions to concentration values, utilizing data from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation Acid Rain Monitoring Network web site. Our results show that the increase in nitrate concentration in bodies of water following the most intense ionization event likely in the last billion years would not be sufficient to cause a serious additional stress on amphibian populations and may actually provide some benefit by acting as fertilizer.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

An In-Class Discussion Activity on the Nature of Science and Intelligent Design

In this paper I describe an in-class discussion activity aimed at helping elementary education majors in a physical science course think about issues surrounding the inclusion of "Intelligent Design" in public school science standards. I discuss the background instruction given, the content of the activity and some results from its use in class.

physics.ed-ph↗

arXiv2007

Superluminous supernovae: No threat from Eta Carinae

Recently Supernova 2006gy was noted as the most luminous ever recorded, with a total radiated energy of ~10^44 Joules. It was proposed that the progenitor may have been a massive evolved star similar to eta Carinae, which resides in our own galaxy at a distance of about 2.3 kpc. eta Carinae appears ready to detonate. Although it is too distant to pose a serious threat as a normal supernova, and given its rotation axis is unlikely to produce a Gamma-Ray Burst oriented toward the Earth, eta Carinae is about 30,000 times nearer than 2006gy, and we re-evaluate it as a potential superluminous supernova. We find that given the large ratio of emission in the optical to the X-ray, atmospheric effects are negligible. Ionization of the atmosphere and concomitant ozone depletion are unlikely to be important. Any cosmic ray effects should be spread out over ~10^4 y, and similarly unlikely to produce any serious perturbation to the biosphere. We also discuss a new possible effect of supernovae, endocrine disruption induced by blue light near the peak of the optical spectrum. This is a possibility for nearby supernovae at distances too large to be considered "dangerous" for other reasons. However, due to reddening and extinction by the interstellar medium, eta Carinae is unlikely to trigger such effects to any significant degree.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2006

Terrestrial Consequences of Spectral and Temporal Variability in Ionizing Photon Events

Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) directed at Earth from within a few kpc may have damaged the biosphere, primarily though changes in atmospheric chemistry which admit greatly increased Solar UV. However, GRBs are highly variable in spectrum and duration. Recent observations indicate that short (~0.1 s) burst GRBs, which have harder spectra, may be sufficiently abundant at low redshift that they may offer an additional significant effect. A much longer timescale is associated with shock breakout luminosity observed in the soft X-ray (~10^3 s) and UV (~10^5 s) emission, and radioactive decay gamma-ray line radiation emitted during the light curve phase of supernovae (~10^7 s). Here we generalize our atmospheric computations to include a broad range of peak photon energies and investigate the effect of burst duration while holding total fluence and other parameters constant. The results can be used to estimate the probable impact of various kinds of ionizing events (such as short GRBs, X-ray flashes, supernovae) upon the terrestrial atmosphere. We find that the ultimate intensity of atmospheric effects varies only slightly with burst duration from 10^-1 s to 10^8 s. Therefore, the effect of many astrophysical events causing atmospheric ionization can be approximated without including time development. Detailed modeling requires specification of the season and latitude of the event. Harder photon spectra produce greater atmospheric effects for spectra with peaks up to about 20 MeV, because of greater penetration into the stratosphere.

astro-ph↗