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Brian Caffo

Publications and source records attributed to Brian Caffo.

25 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

MONEYBaRL: Exploiting pitcher decision-making using Reinforcement Learning

This manuscript uses machine learning techniques to exploit baseball pitchers' decision making, so-called "Baseball IQ," by modeling the at-bat information, pitch selection and counts, as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Each state of the MDP models the pitcher's current pitch selection in a Markovian fashion, conditional on the information immediately prior to making the current pitch. This includes the count prior to the previous pitch, his ensuing pitch selection, the batter's ensuing action and the result of the pitch.

cs.AI↗

Fast, Exact Bootstrap Principal Component Analysis for p>1 million

Many have suggested a bootstrap procedure for estimating the sampling variability of principal component analysis (PCA) results. However, when the number of measurements per subject ($p$) is much larger than the number of subjects ($n$), the challenge of calculating and storing the leading principal components from each bootstrap sample can be computationally infeasible. To address this, we outline methods for fast, exact calculation of bootstrap principal components, eigenvalues, and scores. Our methods leverage the fact that all bootstrap samples occupy the same $n$-dimensional subspace as the original sample. As a result, all bootstrap principal components are limited to the same $n$-dimensional subspace and can be efficiently represented by their low dimensional coordinates in that subspace. Several uncertainty metrics can be computed solely based on the bootstrap distribution of these low dimensional coordinates, without calculating or storing the $p$-dimensional bootstrap components. Fast bootstrap PCA is applied to a dataset of sleep electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings ($p=900$, $n=392$), and to a dataset of brain magnetic resonance images (MRIs) ($p\approx$ 3 million, $n=352$). For the brain MRI dataset, our method allows for standard errors for the first 3 principal components based on 1000 bootstrap samples to be calculated on a standard laptop in 47 minutes, as opposed to approximately 4 days with standard methods.

stat.ME↗

Sparse Median Graphs Estimation in a High Dimensional Semiparametric Model

In this manuscript a unified framework for conducting inference on complex aggregated data in high dimensional settings is proposed. The data are assumed to be a collection of multiple non-Gaussian realizations with underlying undirected graphical structures. Utilizing the concept of median graphs in summarizing the commonality across these graphical structures, a novel semiparametric approach to modeling such complex aggregated data is provided along with robust estimation of the median graph, which is assumed to be sparse. The estimator is proved to be consistent in graph recovery and an upper bound on the rate of convergence is given. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets are conducted to illustrate the empirical usefulness of the proposed models and methods.

stat.AP↗

Parametrization of white matter manifold-like structures using principal surfaces

In this manuscript, we are concerned with data generated from a diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) experiment. The goal is to parameterize manifold-like white matter tracts, such as the corpus callosum, using principal surfaces. We approach the problem by finding a geometrically motivated surface-based representation of the corpus callosum and visualize the fractional anisotropy (FA) values projected onto the surface; the method applies to any other diffusion summary as well as to other white matter tracts. We provide an algorithm that 1) constructs the principal surface of a corpus callosum; 2) flattens the surface into a parametric 2D map; 3) projects associated FA values on the map. The algorithm was applied to a longitudinal study containing 466 diffusion tensor images of 176 multiple sclerosis (MS) patients observed at multiple visits. For each subject and visit the study contains a registered DTI scan of the corpus callosum at roughly 20,000 voxels. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate fast convergence and robust performance of the algorithm under a variety of challenging scenarios.

stat.AP↗

Homotopic Group ICA for Multi-Subject Brain Imaging Data

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a computational technique for revealing latent factors that underlie sets of measurements or signals. It has become a standard technique in functional neuroimaging. In functional neuroimaging, so called group ICA (gICA) seeks to identify and quantify networks of correlated regions across subjects. This paper reports on the development of a new group ICA approach, Homotopic Group ICA (H-gICA), for blind source separation of resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Resting state brain functional homotopy is the similarity of spontaneous fluctuations between bilaterally symmetrically opposing regions (i.e. those symmetric with respect to the mid-sagittal plane) (Zuo et al., 2010). The approach we proposed improves network estimates by leveraging this known brain functional homotopy. H-gICA increases the potential for network discovery, effectively by averaging information across hemispheres. It is theoretically proven to be identical to standard group ICA when the true sources are both perfectly homotopic and noise-free, while simulation studies and data explorations demonstrate its benefits in the presence of noise. Moreover, compared to commonly applied group ICA algorithms, the structure of the H-gICA input data leads to significant improvement in computational efficiency. A simulation study comfirms its effectiveness in homotopic, non-homotopic and mixed settings, as well as on the landmark ADHD-200 dataset. From a relatively small subset of data, several brain networks were found including: the visual, the default mode and auditory networks, as well as others. These were shown to be more contiguous and clearly delineated than the corresponding ordinary group ICA. Finally, in addition to improving network estimation, H-gICA facilitates the investigation of functional homotopy via ICA-based networks.

stat.AP↗

Nonlinear tube-fitting for the analysis of anatomical and functional structures

We are concerned with the estimation of the exterior surface and interior summaries of tube-shaped anatomical structures. This interest is motivated by two distinct scientific goals, one dealing with the distribution of HIV microbicide in the colon and the other with measuring degradation in white-matter tracts in the brain. Our problem is posed as the estimation of the support of a distribution in three dimensions from a sample from that distribution, possibly measured with error. We propose a novel tube-fitting algorithm to construct such estimators. Further, we conduct a simulation study to aid in the choice of a key parameter of the algorithm, and we test our algorithm with validation study tailored to the motivating data sets. Finally, we apply the tube-fitting algorithm to a colon image produced by single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and to a white-matter tract image produced using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI).

stat.AP↗

Fixed-width output analysis for Markov chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample in order to estimate features of a target distribution via ergodic averages. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop? That is, when are the ergodic averages good estimates of the desired quantities? We consider a method that stops the simulation when the width of a confidence interval based on an ergodic average is less than a user-specified value. Hence calculating a Monte Carlo standard error is a critical step in assessing the simulation output. We consider the regenerative simulation and batch means methods of estimating the variance of the asymptotic normal distribution. We give sufficient conditions for the strong consistency of both methods and investigate their finite sample properties in a variety of examples.

math.ST↗