arXiv subjects

Brian Quanz

Publications and source records attributed to Brian Quanz.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Quantum feature encoding optimization

Quantum Machine Learning (QML) holds the promise of enhancing machine learning modeling in terms of both complexity and accuracy. A key challenge in this domain is the encoding of input data, which plays a pivotal role in determining the performance of QML models. In this work, we tackle a largely unaddressed aspect of encoding that is unique to QML modeling -- rather than adjusting the ansatz used for encoding, we consider adjusting how data is conveyed to the ansatz. We specifically implement QML pipelines that leverage classical data manipulation (i.e., ordering, selecting, and weighting features) as a preprocessing step, and evaluate if these aspects of encoding can have a significant impact on QML model performance, and if they can be effectively optimized to improve performance. Our experimental results, applied across a wide variety of data sets, ansatz, and circuit sizes, with a representative QML approach, demonstrate that by optimizing how features are encoded in an ansatz we can substantially and consistently improve the performance of QML models, making a compelling case for integrating these techniques in future QML applications. Finally we demonstrate the practical feasibility of this approach by running it using real quantum hardware with 100 qubit circuits and successfully achieving improved QML modeling performance in this case as well.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2025

Enhanced fill probability estimates in institutional algorithmic bond trading using statistical learning algorithms with quantum computers

The estimation of fill probabilities for trade orders represents a key ingredient in the optimization of algorithmic trading strategies. It is bound by the complex dynamics of financial markets with inherent uncertainties, and the limitations of models aiming to learn from multivariate financial time series that often exhibit stochastic properties with hidden temporal patterns. In this paper, we focus on algorithmic responses to trade inquiries in the corporate bond market and investigate fill probability estimation errors of common machine learning models when given real production-scale intraday trade event data, transformed by a quantum algorithm running on IBM Heron processors, as well as on noiseless quantum simulators for comparison. We introduce a framework to embed these quantum-generated data transforms as a decoupled offline component that can be selectively queried by models in low-latency institutional trade optimization settings. A trade execution backtesting method is employed to evaluate the fill prediction performance of these models in relation to their input data. We observe a relative gain of up to ~ 34% in out-of-sample test scores for those models with access to quantum hardware-transformed data over those using the original trading data or transforms by noiseless quantum simulation. These empirical results suggest that the inherent noise in current quantum hardware contributes to this effect and motivates further studies. Our work demonstrates the emerging potential of quantum computing as a complementary explorative tool in quantitative finance and encourages applied industry research towards practical applications in trading.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2025

Aligning Learning and Endogenous Decision-Making

Many of the observations we make are biased by our decisions. For instance, the demand of items is impacted by the prices set, and online checkout choices are influenced by the assortments presented. The challenge in decision-making under this setting is the lack of counterfactual information, and the need to learn it instead. We introduce an end-to-end method under endogenous uncertainty to train ML models to be aware of their downstream, enabling their effective use in the decision-making stage. We further introduce a robust optimization variant that accounts for uncertainty in ML models -- specifically by constructing uncertainty sets over the space of ML models and optimizing actions to protect against worst-case predictions. We prove guarantees that this robust approach can capture near-optimal decisions with high probability as a function of data. Besides this, we also introduce a new class of two-stage stochastic optimization problems to the end-to-end learning framework that can now be addressed through our framework. Here, the first stage is an information-gathering problem to decide which random variable to poll and gain information about before making a second-stage decision based off of it. We present several computational experiments for pricing and inventory assortment/recommendation problems. We compare against existing methods in online learning/bandits/offline reinforcement learning and show our approach has consistent improved performance over these. Just as in the endogenous setting, the model's prediction also depends on the first-stage decision made. While this decision does not affect the random variable in this setting, it does affect the correct point forecast that should be made.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Efficient End-to-End Learning for Decision-Making: A Meta-Optimization Approach

End-to-end learning has become a widely applicable and studied problem in training predictive ML models to be aware of their impact on downstream decision-making tasks. These end-to-end models often outperform traditional methods that separate training from the optimization and only myopically focus on prediction error. However, the computational complexity of end-to-end frameworks poses a significant challenge, particularly for large-scale problems. While training an ML model using gradient descent, each time we need to compute a gradient we must solve an expensive optimization problem. We present a meta-optimization method that learns efficient algorithms to approximate optimization problems, dramatically reducing computational overhead of solving the decision problem in general, an aspect we leverage in the training within the end-to-end framework. Our approach introduces a neural network architecture that near-optimally solves optimization problems while ensuring feasibility constraints through alternate projections. We prove exponential convergence, approximation guarantees, and generalization bounds for our learning method. This method offers superior computational efficiency, producing high-quality approximations faster and scaling better with problem size compared to existing techniques. Our approach applies to a wide range of optimization problems including deterministic, single-stage as well as two-stage stochastic optimization problems. We illustrate how our proposed method applies to (1) an electricity generation problem using real data from an electricity routing company coordinating the movement of electricity throughout 13 states, (2) a shortest path problem with a computer vision task of predicting edge costs from terrain maps, (3) a two-stage multi-warehouse cross-fulfillment newsvendor problem, as well as a variety of other newsvendor-like problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

CoRe: Coherency Regularization for Hierarchical Time Series

Hierarchical time series forecasting presents unique challenges, particularly when dealing with noisy data that may not perfectly adhere to aggregation constraints. This paper introduces a novel approach to soft coherency in hierarchical time series forecasting using neural networks. We present a network coherency regularization method, which we denote as CoRe (Coherency Regularization), a technique that trains neural networks to produce forecasts that are inherently coherent across hierarchies, without strictly enforcing aggregation constraints. Our method offers several key advantages. (1) It provides theoretical guarantees on the coherency of forecasts, even for out-of-sample data. (2) It is adaptable to scenarios where data may contain errors or missing values, making it more robust than strict coherency methods. (3) It can be easily integrated into existing neural network architectures for time series forecasting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on multiple benchmark datasets, comparing it against state-of-the-art methods in both coherent and noisy data scenarios. Additionally, our method can be used within existing generative probabilistic forecasting frameworks to generate coherent probabilistic forecasts. Our results show improved generalization and forecast accuracy, particularly in the presence of data inconsistencies. On a variety of datasets, including both strictly hierarchically coherent and noisy data, our training method has either equal or better accuracy at all levels of the hierarchy while being strictly more coherent out-of-sample than existing soft-coherency methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Inter-Series Transformer: Attending to Products in Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is an important task in many fields ranging from supply chain management to weather forecasting. Recently, Transformer neural network architectures have shown promising results in forecasting on common time series benchmark datasets. However, application to supply chain demand forecasting, which can have challenging characteristics such as sparsity and cross-series effects, has been limited. In this work, we explore the application of Transformer-based models to supply chain demand forecasting. In particular, we develop a new Transformer-based forecasting approach using a shared, multi-task per-time series network with an initial component applying attention across time series, to capture interactions and help address sparsity. We provide a case study applying our approach to successfully improve demand prediction for a medical device manufacturing company. To further validate our approach, we also apply it to public demand forecasting datasets as well and demonstrate competitive to superior performance compared to a variety of baseline and state-of-the-art forecast methods across the private and public datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

A Survey of Classical And Quantum Sequence Models

Our primary objective is to conduct a brief survey of various classical and quantum neural net sequence models, which includes self-attention and recurrent neural networks, with a focus on recent quantum approaches proposed to work with near-term quantum devices, while exploring some basic enhancements for these quantum models. We re-implement a key representative set of these existing methods, adapting an image classification approach using quantum self-attention to create a quantum hybrid transformer that works for text and image classification, and applying quantum self-attention and quantum recurrent neural networks to natural language processing tasks. We also explore different encoding techniques and introduce positional encoding into quantum self-attention neural networks leading to improved accuracy and faster convergence in text and image classification experiments. This paper also performs a comparative analysis of classical self-attention models and their quantum counterparts, helping shed light on the differences in these models and their performance.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2023

Quantum Multiple Kernel Learning in Financial Classification Tasks

Financial services is a prospect industry where unlocked near-term quantum utility could yield profitable potential, and, in particular, quantum machine learning algorithms could potentially benefit businesses by improving the quality of predictive models. Quantum kernel methods have demonstrated success in financial, binary classification tasks, like fraud detection, and avoid issues found in variational quantum machine learning approaches. However, choosing a suitable quantum kernel for a classical dataset remains a challenge. We propose a hybrid, quantum multiple kernel learning (QMKL) methodology that can improve classification quality over a single kernel approach. We test the robustness of QMKL on several financially relevant datasets using both fidelity and projected quantum kernel approaches. We further demonstrate QMKL on quantum hardware using an error mitigation pipeline and show the benefits of QMKL in the large qubit regime.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2023

An Optimistic-Robust Approach for Dynamic Positioning of Omnichannel Inventories

We introduce a new class of data-driven and distribution-free optimistic-robust bimodal inventory optimization (BIO) strategy to effectively allocate inventory across a retail chain to meet time-varying, uncertain omnichannel demand. The bimodal nature of BIO stems from its ability to balance downside risk, as in traditional Robust Optimization (RO), which focuses on worst-case adversarial demand, with upside potential to enhance average-case performance. This enables BIO to remain as resilient as RO while capturing benefits that would otherwise be lost due to endogenous outliers. Omnichannel inventory planning provides a suitable problem setting for analyzing the effectiveness of BIO's bimodal strategy in managing the tradeoff between lost sales at stores and cross-channel e-commerce fulfillment costs, factors that are inherently asymmetric due to channel-specific behaviors. We provide structural insights about the BIO solution and how it can be tuned to achieve a preferred tradeoff between robustness and the average-case performance. Using a real-world dataset from a large American omnichannel retail chain, a business value assessment during a peak period indicates that BIO outperforms pure RO by 27% in terms of realized average profitability and surpasses other competitive baselines under imperfect distributional information by over 10%. This demonstrates that BIO provides a novel, data-driven, and distribution-free alternative to traditional RO that achieves strong average performance while carefully balancing robustness.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Hierarchical Proxy Modeling for Improved HPO in Time Series Forecasting

Selecting the right set of hyperparameters is crucial in time series forecasting. The classical temporal cross-validation framework for hyperparameter optimization (HPO) often leads to poor test performance because of a possible mismatch between validation and test periods. To address this test-validation mismatch, we propose a novel technique, H-Pro to drive HPO via test proxies by exploiting data hierarchies often associated with time series datasets. Since higher-level aggregated time series often show less irregularity and better predictability as compared to the lowest-level time series which can be sparse and intermittent, we optimize the hyperparameters of the lowest-level base-forecaster by leveraging the proxy forecasts for the test period generated from the forecasters at higher levels. H-Pro can be applied on any off-the-shelf machine learning model to perform HPO. We validate the efficacy of our technique with extensive empirical evaluation on five publicly available hierarchical forecasting datasets. Our approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in Tourism, Wiki, and Traffic datasets, and achieves competitive result in Tourism-L dataset, without any model-specific enhancements. Moreover, our method outperforms the winning method of the M5 forecast accuracy competition.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Boosting Method for Automated Feature Space Discovery in Supervised Quantum Machine Learning Models

Quantum Support Vector Machines (QSVM) have become an important tool in research and applications of quantum kernel methods. In this work we propose a boosting approach for building ensembles of QSVM models and assess performance improvement across multiple datasets. This approach is derived from the best ensemble building practices that worked well in traditional machine learning and thus should push the limits of quantum model performance even further. We find that in some cases, a single QSVM model with tuned hyperparameters is sufficient to simulate the data, while in others - an ensemble of QSVMs that are forced to do exploration of the feature space via proposed method is beneficial.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2022

Towards Creativity Characterization of Generative Models via Group-based Subset Scanning

Deep generative models, such as Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), have been employed widely in computational creativity research. However, such models discourage out-of-distribution generation to avoid spurious sample generation, thereby limiting their creativity. Thus, incorporating research on human creativity into generative deep learning techniques presents an opportunity to make their outputs more compelling and human-like. As we see the emergence of generative models directed toward creativity research, a need for machine learning-based surrogate metrics to characterize creative output from these models is imperative. We propose group-based subset scanning to identify, quantify, and characterize creative processes by detecting a subset of anomalous node-activations in the hidden layers of the generative models. Our experiments on the standard image benchmarks, and their "creatively generated" variants, reveal that the proposed subset scores distribution is more useful for detecting creative processes in the activation space rather than the pixel space. Further, we found that creative samples generate larger subsets of anomalies than normal or non-creative samples across datasets. The node activations highlighted during the creative decoding process are different from those responsible for the normal sample generation. Lastly, we assess if the images from the subsets selected by our method were also found creative by human evaluators, presenting a link between creativity perception in humans and node activations within deep neural nets.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Deep Policy Iteration with Integer Programming for Inventory Management

We present a Reinforcement Learning (RL) based framework for optimizing long-term discounted reward problems with large combinatorial action space and state dependent constraints. These characteristics are common to many operations management problems, e.g., network inventory replenishment, where managers have to deal with uncertain demand, lost sales, and capacity constraints that results in more complex feasible action spaces. Our proposed Programmable Actor Reinforcement Learning (PARL) uses a deep-policy iteration method that leverages neural networks (NNs) to approximate the value function and combines it with mathematical programming (MP) and sample average approximation (SAA) to solve the per-step-action optimally while accounting for combinatorial action spaces and state-dependent constraint sets. We show how the proposed methodology can be applied to complex inventory replenishment problems where analytical solutions are intractable. We also benchmark the proposed algorithm against state-of-the-art RL algorithms and commonly used replenishment heuristics and find it considerably outperforms existing methods by as much as 14.7% on average in various complex supply chain settings. We find that this improvement of PARL over benchmark algorithms can be directly attributed to better inventory cost management, especially in inventory constrained settings. Furthermore, in the simpler setting where optimal replenishment policy is tractable or known near optimal heuristics exist, we find that the RL approaches can learn near optimal policies. Finally, to make RL algorithms more accessible for inventory management researchers, we also discuss the development of a modular Python library that can be used to test the performance of RL algorithms with various supply chain structures and spur future research in developing practical and near-optimal algorithms for inventory management problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Learning to shortcut and shortlist order fulfillment deciding

With the increase of order fulfillment options and business objectives taken into consideration in the deciding process, order fulfillment deciding is becoming more and more complex. For example, with the advent of ship from store retailers now have many more fulfillment nodes to consider, and it is now common to take into account many and varied business goals in making fulfillment decisions. With increasing complexity, efficiency of the deciding process can become a real concern. Finding the optimal fulfillment assignments among all possible ones may be too costly to do for every order especially during peak times. In this work, we explore the possibility of exploiting regularity in the fulfillment decision process to reduce the burden on the deciding system. By using data mining we aim to find patterns in past fulfillment decisions that can be used to efficiently predict most likely assignments for future decisions. Essentially, those assignments that can be predicted with high confidence can be used to shortcut, or bypass, the expensive deciding process, or else a set of most likely assignments can be used for shortlisting -- sending a much smaller set of candidates for consideration by the fulfillment deciding system.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Predicting Deep Neural Network Generalization with Perturbation Response Curves

The field of Deep Learning is rich with empirical evidence of human-like performance on a variety of prediction tasks. However, despite these successes, the recent Predicting Generalization in Deep Learning (PGDL) NeurIPS 2020 competition suggests that there is a need for more robust and efficient measures of network generalization. In this work, we propose a new framework for evaluating the generalization capabilities of trained networks. We use perturbation response (PR) curves that capture the accuracy change of a given network as a function of varying levels of training sample perturbation. From these PR curves, we derive novel statistics that capture generalization capability. Specifically, we introduce two new measures for accurately predicting generalization gaps: the Gi-score and Pal-score, which are inspired by the Gini coefficient and Palma ratio (measures of income inequality), that accurately predict generalization gaps. Using our framework applied to intra and inter-class sample mixup, we attain better predictive scores than the current state-of-the-art measures on a majority of tasks in the PGDL competition. In addition, we show that our framework and the proposed statistics can be used to capture to what extent a trained network is invariant to a given parametric input transformation, such as rotation or translation. Therefore, these generalization gap prediction statistics also provide a useful means for selecting optimal network architectures and hyperparameters that are invariant to a certain perturbation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Gi and Pal Scores: Deep Neural Network Generalization Statistics

The field of Deep Learning is rich with empirical evidence of human-like performance on a variety of regression, classification, and control tasks. However, despite these successes, the field lacks strong theoretical error bounds and consistent measures of network generalization and learned invariances. In this work, we introduce two new measures, the Gi-score and Pal-score, that capture a deep neural network's generalization capabilities. Inspired by the Gini coefficient and Palma ratio, measures of income inequality, our statistics are robust measures of a network's invariance to perturbations that accurately predict generalization gaps, i.e., the difference between accuracy on training and test sets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Towards creativity characterization of generative models via group-based subset scanning

Deep generative models, such as Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), have been employed widely in computational creativity research. However, such models discourage out-of-distribution generation to avoid spurious sample generation, limiting their creativity. Thus, incorporating research on human creativity into generative deep learning techniques presents an opportunity to make their outputs more compelling and human-like. As we see the emergence of generative models directed to creativity research, a need for machine learning-based surrogate metrics to characterize creative output from these models is imperative. We propose group-based subset scanning to quantify, detect, and characterize creative processes by detecting a subset of anomalous node-activations in the hidden layers of generative models. Our experiments on original, typically decoded, and "creatively decoded" (Das et al 2020) image datasets reveal that the proposed subset scores distribution is more useful for detecting creative processes in the activation space rather than the pixel space. Further, we found that creative samples generate larger subsets of anomalies than normal or non-creative samples across datasets. The node activations highlighted during the creative decoding process are different from those responsible for normal sample generation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Temporal Latent Auto-Encoder: A Method for Probabilistic Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Probabilistic forecasting of high dimensional multivariate time series is a notoriously challenging task, both in terms of computational burden and distribution modeling. Most previous work either makes simple distribution assumptions or abandons modeling cross-series correlations. A promising line of work exploits scalable matrix factorization for latent-space forecasting, but is limited to linear embeddings, unable to model distributions, and not trainable end-to-end when using deep learning forecasting. We introduce a novel temporal latent auto-encoder method which enables nonlinear factorization of multivariate time series, learned end-to-end with a temporal deep learning latent space forecast model. By imposing a probabilistic latent space model, complex distributions of the input series are modeled via the decoder. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on many popular multivariate datasets, with gains sometimes as high as $50\%$ for several standard metrics.

cs.LG↗