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Brian Williamson

Publications and source records attributed to Brian Williamson.

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De-meaning Simulation Studies

In simulation studies evaluating asymptotic approximations it is common practice to report averages and standard deviations over repeated simulations. We argue that quantile-based summaries are more appropriate from both a theoretical and practical point of view. Theoretically, convergence of moments -- or even existence of moments -- is not guaranteed by convergence in distribution, so sample moments are not ideal for assessing the accuracy of a distributional approximation. In practice, means and variances are not good summaries of approximately-Normal distributions that may have occasional outliers. We suggest the median and median absolute deviation, and empirical confidence interval coverage, as better general summaries, and argue that moments should be reserved for simulation settings where they are of substantive interest.

stat.ME

Generalized Prediction-Powered Inference, with Application to Binary Classifier Evaluation

In the partially-observed outcome setting, a recent set of proposals known as "prediction-powered inference" (PPI) involve (i) applying a pre-trained machine learning model to predict the response, and then (ii) using these predictions to obtain an estimator of the parameter of interest with asymptotic variance no greater than that which would be obtained using only the labeled observations. While existing PPI proposals consider estimators arising from M-estimation, in this paper we generalize PPI to any regular asymptotically linear estimator. Furthermore, by situating PPI within the context of an existing rich literature on missing data and semi-parametric efficiency theory, we show that while PPI does not achieve the semi-parametric efficiency lower bound outside of very restrictive and unrealistic scenarios, it can be viewed as a computationally-simple alternative to proposals in that literature. We exploit connections to that literature to propose modified PPI estimators that can handle three distinct forms of covariate distribution shift. Finally, we illustrate these developments by constructing PPI estimators of true positive rate, false positive rate, and area under the curve via numerical studies.

stat.ME