arXiv subjects

Brice-Olivier Demory

Publications and source records attributed to Brice-Olivier Demory.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Hot Rocks Survey III: A deep eclipse for LHS 1140c and a new Gaussian process method to account for correlated noise in individual pixels

Time-series photometry at mid-infrared wavelengths is becoming a common technique to search for atmospheres around rocky exoplanets. This method constrains the brightness temperature of the planet to determine whether heat redistribution is taking place - indicative of an atmosphere - or whether the heat is reradiated from a low albedo bare rock. By observing at 15$μ$m we are also highly sensitive to CO$_2$ absorption. We observed three eclipses of the rocky super-Earth LHS 1140c using MIRI/Imaging with the F1500W filter. We found significant variation in the initial settling ramp for these observations and identify a potential trend between detector settling and the previous filter used by MIRI. We analysed our data using aperture photometry but also developed a novel approach which joint-fits pixel light curves directly using a shared eclipse model and a flexible multi-dimensional Gaussian process which models changes in the PSF over time. We demonstrate using simulated data that our method has the ability to weight away from particular pixels which show increased systematics, allowing for the recovery of eclipse depths in a more robust and precise way. Both methods and an independent analysis detect the eclipse at $>5σ$ and are highly consistent with a low albedo bare rock. We recover a dayside brightness temperature of $T_\mathrm{day} = 561\pm44$ K, close to the theoretical maximum of $T_\text{day; max} = 537\pm9$ K. We rule out a wide range of atmospheric forward models to $>3σ$ including pure CO$_2$ atmospheres with surface pressure $\ge10$ mbar and pure H$_2$O atmospheres with surface pressure $\ge1$ bar. Our strict constraints on potential atmospheric composition, in combination with future observations of the exciting outer planet LHS 1140b, could provide a powerful benchmark to understand atmospheric escape around M dwarfs.

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arXiv2025

Hubble's Multi-Year Search for Exospheres in the TRAPPIST-1 System Reveals Frequent Microflares

Ly-$α$ observations provide a powerful probe of stellar activity and atmospheric escape in exoplanetary systems. We present here an analysis of 104 HST/STIS orbits monitoring the TRAPPIST-1 system between 2017 and 2022, covering 3--5 transits for each of its seven planets. We rule out transit depths $\gtrsim20\%$, which translates into an upper limit on the escape rate of $1064~EO_H$/Gyr for planet b ($1~EO_H$ is the Earth-ocean-equivalent hydrogen content), in agreement with recent claims that planet b should be airless. These upper limits are $\sim$3 times larger than expected from the photon noise due to a large baseline scatter, which we ultimately link to TRAPPIST-1's intrinsic Ly-$α$ variability from frequent ``microflares.'' While JWST observations of TRAPPIST-1 in the near infrared have shown that $\sim10^{30}$-erg flares occur every $\sim$6 hours, we report here $\sim10^{29}$-erg flares on sub-hour timescales in the HST/STIS and also Very Large Telescope (VLT) $g^{'}$ observations. The FUV and optical amplitudes ($\sim$400$\%$ vs $\sim$3$\%$, respectively) for flares with similar waiting-times indicate flare temperatures of 11000$^{+4200}_{-3100}$~K over 0.011$^{+0.03}_{-0.01}$\% of the stellar disk. Finally, our multi-year baseline reveals a variability with $P = 3.27 \pm 0.04$ days, providing further validation of the previously reported 3.295-day rotation period for TRAPPIST-1. These results highlight the importance of accounting for stellar microvariability when searching for exospheres around active M dwarfs.

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arXiv2025

Hot Rocks Survey I : A possible shallow eclipse for LHS 1478 b

M dwarf systems offer an opportunity to study terrestrial exoplanetary atmospheres due to their small size and cool temperatures. However, the extreme conditions imposed by these host stars raise question about whether their close-in rocky planets are able to retain any atmosphere at all. The Hot Rocks Survey aims to answer this question by targeting nine different M dwarf rocky planets. Of these, LHS 1478 b orbits an M3-type star, has an equilibrium temperature of T$_{eq}$ = 585 K and receives 21 times Earth's instellation. We observe two secondary eclipses using photometric imaging at 15$μ$m using the Mid-Infrared Instrument on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST MIRI) to measure thermal emission from the dayside of the planet. We compare these values to atmospheric models to evaluate potential heat transport and CO$_2$ absorption signatures. We find that a secondary eclipse depth of $138\pm 53$ppm at the expected time for a circular orbit is preferred over a null model at $2.8σ$, a moderate detection, though dynamical models do favour a non-eccentric orbit for this planet. The second observation results in a non-detection due to significantly larger unexplained systematics. Based on the first observation alone, we can reject the null hypothesis of the dark (zero Bond albedo) no atmosphere bare rock model with a confidence level of 3.3$σ$, though for $A_B=0.2$ the significance decreases to $2.1σ$. The tentative secondary eclipse depth is consistent with the majority of atmospheric scenarios we considered, spanning CO$_2$-rich atmospheres with surface pressures from 0.1 to 10 bar. However, we stress that the two observations from our program do not yield consistent results, and more observations are needed to verify our findings. The Hot Rocks Survey serves as a relevant primer for the Director's Discretionary Time (DDT) Rocky Worlds program.

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arXiv2024

In-situ observations of resident space objects with the CHEOPS space telescope

The CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS) is a partnership between the European Space Agency and Switzerland with important contributions by 10 additional ESA member States. It is the first S-class mission in the ESA Science Programme. CHEOPS has been flying on a Sun-synchronous low Earth orbit since December 2019, collecting millions of short-exposure images in the visible domain to study exoplanet properties. A small yet increasing fraction of CHEOPS images show linear trails caused by resident space objects crossing the instrument field of view. To characterize the population of satellites and orbital debris observed by CHEOPS, all and every science images acquired over the past 3 years have been scanned with a Hough transform algorithm to identify the characteristic linear features that these objects cause on the images. Thousands of trails have been detected. This statistically significant sample shows interesting trends and features such as an increased occurrence rate over the past years as well as the fingerprint of the Starlink constellation. The cross-matching of individual trails with catalogued objects is underway as we aim to measure their distance at the time of observation and deduce the apparent magnitude of the detected objects. As space agencies and private companies are developing new space-based surveillance and tracking activities to catalogue and characterize the distribution of small debris, the CHEOPS experience is timely and relevant. With the first CHEOPS mission extension currently running until the end of 2026, and a possible second extension until the end of 2029, the longer time coverage will make our dataset even more valuable to the community, especially for characterizing objects with recurrent crossings.

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arXiv2024

Infrared photometry with InGaAs detectors: First light with SPECULOOS

We present the photometric performance of SPIRIT, a ground-based near-infrared InGaAs CMOS-based instrument (1280 by 1024 pixels, 12 micron pitch), using on-sky results from the SPECULOOS-Southern Observatory during 2022 - 2023. SPIRIT was specifically designed to optimise time-series photometric precision for observing late M and L type stars. To achieve this, a custom wide-pass filter (0.81 - 1.33 microns, zYJ ) was used, which was also designed to minimise the effects of atmospheric precipitable water vapour (PWV) variability on differential photometry. Additionally, SPIRIT was designed to be maintenance-free by eliminating the need for liquid nitrogen for cooling. We compared SPIRIT's performance with a deeply-depleted (2048 by 2048 pixels, 13.5 micron pitch) CCD-based instrument (using an I+z' filter, 0.7 - 1.1 microns) through simultaneous observations. For L type stars and cooler, SPIRIT exhibited better photometric noise performance compared to the CCD-based instrument. The custom filter also significantly minimised red noise in the observed light curves typically introduced by atmospheric PWV variability. In SPIRIT observations, the detector's read noise was the dominant limitation, although in some cases, we were limited by the lack of comparison stars.

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arXiv2024

RISTRETTO: reflected-light exoplanet spectroscopy at the diffraction limit of the VLT

RISTRETTO is a visible high-resolution spectrograph fed by an extreme adaptive optics (AO) system, to be proposed as a visitor instrument on ESO VLT. The main science goal of RISTRETTO is to pioneer the detection and atmospheric characterisation of exoplanets in reflected light, in particular the temperate rocky planet Proxima b. RISTRETTO will be able to measure albedos and detect atmospheric features in a number of exoplanets orbiting nearby stars for the first time. It will do so by combining a high-contrast AO system working at the diffraction limit of the telescope to a high-resolution spectrograph, via a 7-spaxel integral-field unit (IFU) feeding single-mode fibers. Further science cases for RISTRETTO include the study of accreting protoplanets such as PDS70b/c through spectrally-resolved H-alpha emission, and spatially-resolved studies of Solar System objects such as icy moons and the ice giants Uranus and Neptune. The project is in the manufacturing phase for the spectrograph sub-system, and the preliminary design phase for the AO front-end. Specific developments for RISTRETTO include a novel coronagraphic IFU combining a phase-induced amplitude apodizer (PIAA) to a 3D-printed microlens array feeding a bundle of single-mode fibers. It also features an XAO system with a dual wavefront sensor aiming at high robustness and sensitivity, including to pupil fragmentation. RISTRETTO is a pathfinder instrument in view of similar developments at the ELT, in particular the SCAO-IFU mode of ELT-ANDES and the future ELT-PCS instrument.

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arXiv2024

An extended low-density atmosphere around the Jupiter-sized planet WASP-193 b

Gas giants transiting bright nearby stars provide crucial insights into planetary system formation and evolution mechanisms. Most of these planets exhibit certain average characteristics, serving as benchmarks for our understanding of planetary systems. However, outliers like the planet we present in this study, WASP-193b, offer unique opportunities to explore unconventional formation and evolution processes. This planet completes an orbit around its Vmag=12.2 F9 main-sequence host star every 6.25 d. Our analyses found that WASP-193b has a mass of Mp=0.139+/-0.029 MJup and a radius of Rp=1.464+/-0.058 RJup, translating into an extremely low density of rho_p = 0.059+/-0.014 g/cm^3, at least one order of magnitude less than standard gas giants like Jupiter. Typical gas giants such as Jupiter have densities that range between 0.2 and 2 g/cm^3. The combination of its large transit depth (dF~1.4%), its extremely-low density, its high-equilibrium temperature (Teq = 1254+/-31 K), and the infrared brightness of its host star (magnitude Kmag=10.7) makes WASP-193b an exquisite target for characterization by transmission spectroscopy (transmission spectroscopy metric: TSM~600). One single JWST transit observation would yield detailed insights into its atmospheric properties and planetary mass, providing a unique window to explore the mechanisms behind its exceptionally low density and shed light on giant planets' diverse nature.

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arXiv2024

Sulphur dioxide in the mid-infrared transmission spectrum of WASP-39b

The recent inference of sulphur dioxide (SO$_2$) in the atmosphere of the hot ($\sim$1100 K), Saturn-mass exoplanet WASP-39b from near-infrared JWST observations suggests that photochemistry is a key process in high temperature exoplanet atmospheres. This is due to the low ($<$1 ppb) abundance of SO$_2$ under thermochemical equilibrium, compared to that produced from the photochemistry of H$_2$O and H$_2$S (1-10 ppm). However, the SO$_2$ inference was made from a single, small molecular feature in the transmission spectrum of WASP-39b at 4.05 $μ$m, and therefore the detection of other SO$_2$ absorption bands at different wavelengths is needed to better constrain the SO$_2$ abundance. Here we report the detection of SO$_2$ spectral features at 7.7 and 8.5 $μ$m in the 5-12 $μ$m transmission spectrum of WASP-39b measured by the JWST Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) Low Resolution Spectrometer (LRS). Our observations suggest an abundance of SO$_2$ of 0.5-25 ppm (1$σ$ range), consistent with previous findings. In addition to SO$_2$, we find broad water vapour absorption features, as well as an unexplained decrease in the transit depth at wavelengths longer than 10 $μ$m. Fitting the spectrum with a grid of atmospheric forward models, we derive an atmospheric heavy element content (metallicity) for WASP-39b of $\sim$7.1-8.0 $\times$ solar and demonstrate that photochemistry shapes the spectra of WASP-39b across a broad wavelength range.

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arXiv2024

Detection of an Earth-sized exoplanet orbiting the nearby ultracool dwarf star SPECULOOS-3

Located at the bottom of the main sequence, ultracool dwarf stars are widespread in the solar neighbourhood. Nevertheless, their extremely low luminosity has left their planetary population largely unexplored, and only one of them, TRAPPIST-1, has so far been found to host a transiting planetary system. In this context, we present the SPECULOOS project's detection of an Earth-sized planet in a 17 h orbit around an ultracool dwarf of M6.5 spectral type located 16.8 pc away. The planet's high irradiation (16 times that of Earth) combined with the infrared luminosity and Jupiter-like size of its host star make it one of the most promising rocky exoplanet targets for detailed emission spectroscopy characterization with JWST. Indeed, our sensitivity study shows that just ten secondary eclipse observations with the Mid-InfraRed Instrument/Low-Resolution Spectrometer on board JWST should provide strong constraints on its atmospheric composition and/or surface mineralogy.

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arXiv2024

A secondary atmosphere on the rocky exoplanet 55 Cancri e

Characterizing rocky exoplanets is a central endeavor of astronomy, and yet the search for atmospheres on rocky exoplanets has hitherto resulted in either tight upper limits on the atmospheric mass or inconclusive results. The 1.95-REarth and 8.8-MEarth planet 55 Cnc e, with a predominantly rocky composition and an equilibrium temperature of ~2000 K, may have a volatile envelope (containing molecules made from a combination of C, H, O, N, S, and P elements) that accounts for up to a few percent of its radius. The planet has been observed extensively with transmission spectroscopy, and its thermal emission has been measured in broad photometric bands. These observations disfavor a primordial H2/He-dominated atmosphere but cannot conclusively determine whether the planet has a secondary atmosphere. Here we report a thermal emission spectrum of the planet obtained by JWST's NIRCam and MIRI instruments from 4 to 12 μm. The measurements rule out the scenario where the planet is a lava world shrouded by a tenuous atmosphere made of vaporized rock, and indicate a bona fide volatile atmosphere likely rich in CO2 or CO. This atmosphere can be outgassed from and sustained by a magma ocean.

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arXiv2024

Discovery of two warm mini-Neptunes with contrasting densities orbiting the young K3V star TOI-815

We present the discovery and characterization of two warm mini-Neptunes transiting the K3V star TOI-815 in a K-M binary system. Analysis of the spectra and rotation period reveal it to be a young star with an age of $200^{+400}_{-200}$Myr. TOI-815b has a 11.2-day period and a radius of 2.94$\pm$0.05$\it{R_{\rm\mathrm{\oplus}}}$ with transits observed by TESS, CHEOPS, ASTEP, and LCOGT. The outer planet, TOI-815c, has a radius of 2.62$\pm$0.10$\it{R_{\rm\mathrm{\oplus}}}$, based on observations of three non-consecutive transits with TESS, while targeted CHEOPS photometry and radial velocity follow-up with ESPRESSO were required to confirm the 35-day period. ESPRESSO confirmed the planetary nature of both planets and measured masses of 7.6$\pm$1.5 $\it{M_{\rm \mathrm{\oplus}}}$ ($ρ_\mathrm{P}$=1.64$^{+0.33}_{-0.31}$gcm$^{-3}$) and 23.5$\pm$2.4$\it{M_{\rm\mathrm{\oplus}}}$ ($ρ_\mathrm{P}$=7.2$^{+1.1}_{-1.0}$gcm$^{-3}$) respectively. Thus, the planets have very different masses, unlike the usual similarity of masses in compact multi-planet systems. Moreover, our statistical analysis of mini-Neptunes orbiting FGK stars suggests that weakly irradiated planets tend to have higher bulk densities compared to those suffering strong irradiation. This could be ascribed to their cooler atmospheres, which are more compressed and denser. Internal structure modeling of TOI-815b suggests it likely has a H-He atmosphere constituting a few percent of the total planet mass, or higher if the planet is assumed to have no water. In contrast, the measured mass and radius of TOI-815c can be explained without invoking any atmosphere, challenging planetary formation theories. Finally, we infer from our measurements that the star is viewed close to pole-on, which implies a spin-orbit misalignment at the 3$σ$ level.

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arXiv2024

Nightside clouds and disequilibrium chemistry on the hot Jupiter WASP-43b

Hot Jupiters are among the best-studied exoplanets, but it is still poorly understood how their chemical composition and cloud properties vary with longitude. Theoretical models predict that clouds may condense on the nightside and that molecular abundances can be driven out of equilibrium by zonal winds. Here we report a phase-resolved emission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-43b measured from 5-12 $μ$m with JWST's Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI). The spectra reveal a large day-night temperature contrast (with average brightness temperatures of 1524$\pm$35 and 863$\pm$23 Kelvin, respectively) and evidence for water absorption at all orbital phases. Comparisons with three-dimensional atmospheric models show that both the phase curve shape and emission spectra strongly suggest the presence of nightside clouds which become optically thick to thermal emission at pressures greater than ~100 mbar. The dayside is consistent with a cloudless atmosphere above the mid-infrared photosphere. Contrary to expectations from equilibrium chemistry but consistent with disequilibrium kinetics models, methane is not detected on the nightside (2$σ$ upper limit of 1-6 parts per million, depending on model assumptions).

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arXiv2023

Two Warm Neptunes transiting HIP 9618 revealed by TESS & Cheops

HIP 9618 (HD 12572, TOI-1471, TIC 306263608) is a bright ($G=9.0$ mag) solar analogue. TESS photometry revealed the star to have two candidate planets with radii of $3.9 \pm 0.044$ $R_\oplus$ (HIP 9618 b) and $3.343 \pm 0.039$ $R_\oplus$ (HIP 9618 c). While the 20.77291 day period of HIP 9618 b was measured unambiguously, HIP 9618 c showed only two transits separated by a 680-day gap in the time series, leaving many possibilities for the period. To solve this issue, CHEOPS performed targeted photometry of period aliases to attempt to recover the true period of planet c, and successfully determined the true period to be 52.56349 d. High-resolution spectroscopy with HARPS-N, SOPHIE and CAFE revealed a mass of $10.0 \pm 3.1 M_\oplus$ for HIP 9618 b, which, according to our interior structure models, corresponds to a $6.8\pm1.4\%$ gas fraction. HIP 9618 c appears to have a lower mass than HIP 9618 b, with a 3-sigma upper limit of $< 18M_\oplus$. Follow-up and archival RV measurements also reveal a clear long-term trend which, when combined with imaging and astrometric information, reveal a low-mass companion ($0.08^{+0.12}_{-0.05} M_\odot$) orbiting at $26^{+19}_{-11}$ au. This detection makes HIP 9618 one of only five bright ($K<8$ mag) transiting multi-planet systems known to host a planet with $P>50$ d, opening the door for the atmospheric characterisation of warm ($T_{\rm eq}<750$ K) sub-Neptunes.

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arXiv2023

TESS and CHEOPS Discover Two Warm Sub-Neptunes Transiting the Bright K-dwarf HD 15906

We report the discovery of two warm sub-Neptunes transiting the bright (G = 9.5 mag) K-dwarf HD 15906 (TOI 461, TIC 4646810). This star was observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) in sectors 4 and 31, revealing two small transiting planets. The inner planet, HD 15906 b, was detected with an unambiguous period but the outer planet, HD 15906 c, showed only two transits separated by $\sim$ 734 days, leading to 36 possible values of its period. We performed follow-up observations with the CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS) to confirm the true period of HD 15906 c and improve the radius precision of the two planets. From TESS, CHEOPS and additional ground-based photometry, we find that HD 15906 b has a radius of 2.24 $\pm$ 0.08 R$_\oplus$ and a period of 10.924709 $\pm$ 0.000032 days, whilst HD 15906 c has a radius of 2.93$^{+0.07}_{-0.06}$ R$_\oplus$ and a period of 21.583298$^{+0.000052}_{-0.000055}$ days. Assuming zero bond albedo and full day-night heat redistribution, the inner and outer planet have equilibrium temperatures of 668 $\pm$ 13 K and 532 $\pm$ 10 K, respectively. The HD 15906 system has become one of only six multiplanet systems with two warm ($\lesssim$ 700 K) sub-Neptune sized planets transiting a bright star (G $\leq$ 10 mag). It is an excellent target for detailed characterisation studies to constrain the composition of sub-Neptune planets and test theories of planet formation and evolution.

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arXiv2022

TOI-836: A super-Earth and mini-Neptune transiting a nearby K-dwarf

We present the discovery of two exoplanets transiting TOI-836 (TIC 440887364) using data from TESS Sector 11 and Sector 38. TOI-836 is a bright ($T = 8.5$ mag), high proper motion ($\sim\,200$ mas yr$^{-1}$), low metallicity ([Fe/H]$\approx\,-0.28$) K-dwarf with a mass of $0.68\pm0.05$ M$_{\odot}$ and a radius of $0.67\pm0.01$ R$_{\odot}$. We obtain photometric follow-up observations with a variety of facilities, and we use these data-sets to determine that the inner planet, TOI-836 b, is a $1.70\pm0.07$ R$_{\oplus}$ super-Earth in a 3.82 day orbit, placing it directly within the so-called 'radius valley'. The outer planet, TOI-836 c, is a $2.59\pm0.09$ R$_{\oplus}$ mini-Neptune in an 8.60 day orbit. Radial velocity measurements reveal that TOI-836 b has a mass of $4.5\pm0.9$ M$_{\oplus}$ , while TOI-836 c has a mass of $9.6\pm2.6$ M$_{\oplus}$. Photometric observations show Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) on the order of 20 minutes for TOI-836 c, although there are no detectable TTVs for TOI-836 b. The TTVs of planet TOI-836 c may be caused by an undetected exterior planet.

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arXiv2022

Spectropolarimetry of life: airborne measurements from a hot air balloon

Does life exist outside our Solar System? A first step towards searching for life outside our Solar System is detecting life on Earth by using remote sensing applications. One powerful and unambiguous biosignature is the circular polarization resulting from the homochirality of biotic molecules and systems. We aim to investigate the possibility of identifying and characterizing life on Earth by using airborne spectropolarimetric observations from a hot air balloon during our field campaign in Switzerland, May 2022. In this work we present the optical-setup and the data obtained from aerial circular spectropolarimetric measurements of farmland, forests, lakes and urban sites. We make use of the well-calibrated FlyPol instrument that measures the fractionally induced circular polarization ($V/I$) of (reflected) light with a sensitivity of $<10^{-4}$. The instrument operates in the visible spectrum, ranging from 400 to 900 nm. We demonstrate the possibility to distinguish biotic from abiotic features using circular polarization spectra and additional broadband linear polarization information. We review the performance of our optical-setup and discuss potential improvements. This sets the requirements on how to perform future airborne spectropolarimetric measurements of the Earth's surface features from several elevations.

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arXiv2022

Directional aspects of vegetation linear and circular polarization biosignatures

Homochirality is a generic and unique property of all biochemical life and is considered a universal and agnostic biosignature. Upon interaction with unpolarized light, homochirality induces fractional circular polarization in the light that is scattered from it, which can be sensed remotely. As such, it can be a prime candidate biosignature in the context of future life-detection missions and observatories. The linear polarizance of vegetation is also sometimes envisaged as a biosignature, although it does not share the molecular origin as circular polarization. It is known that the linear polarization of surfaces is strongly dependent on the phase angle. The relation between the phase angle and circular polarization stemming from macromolecular assemblies, such as in vegetation, however, remained unclear. We demonstrate in this study using the average of 27 different species that the circular polarization phase angle dependency of vegetation induces relatively small changes in spectral shape and mostly affects the signal magnitude. With these results we underline the use of circular spectropolarimetry as a promising agnostic biosignature complementary to the use of linear spectropolarimetry and scalar reflectance.

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arXiv2022

Transit Timing Variations for AU Microscopii b & c

We explore the transit timing variations (TTVs) of the young (22 Myr) nearby AU Mic planetary system. For AU Mic b, we introduce three Spitzer (4.5 $μ$m) transits, five TESS transits, 11 LCO transits, one PEST transit, one Brierfield transit, and two transit timing measurements from Rossiter-McLaughlin observations; for AU Mic c, we introduce three TESS transits. We present two independent TTV analyses. First, we use EXOFASTv2 to jointly model the Spitzer and ground-based transits and to obtain the midpoint transit times. We then construct an O--C diagram and model the TTVs with Exo-Striker. Second, we reproduce our results with an independent photodynamical analysis. We recover a TTV mass for AU Mic c of 10.8$^{+2.3}_{-2.2}$ M$_{E}$. We compare the TTV-derived constraints to a recent radial-velocity (RV) mass determination. We also observe excess TTVs that do not appear to be consistent with the dynamical interactions of b and c alone, and do not appear to be due to spots or flares. Thus, we present a hypothetical non-transiting "middle-d" candidate exoplanet that is consistent with the observed TTVs, the candidate RV signal, and would establish the AU Mic system as a compact resonant multi-planet chain in a 4:6:9 period commensurability. These results demonstrate that the AU Mic planetary system is dynamically interacting producing detectable TTVs, and the implied orbital dynamics may inform the formation mechanisms for this young system. We recommend future RV and TTV observations of AU Mic b and c to further constrain the masses and to confirm the existence of possible additional planet(s).

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