Brooke Bian | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

MARCO: Click-Intent Decomposition for Calibrated Ads Conversion Prediction

Not all clicks are equal. Industrial ads ranking decouples conversion probability into click-through rate (CTR) and post-click conversion rate (CVR), yet treats every click as the same event. In reality, users provide a free, self-generated signal of intent through their physical UI interactions. Different click types on the same ad exhibit a 4-fold difference in actual conversion rates. By conflating these signals, the standard CVR model under-predicts high-intent clicks and over-predicts low-intent ones, which is a bias masked by near-perfect aggregate calibration. We propose MARCO (Multi-intent Ads Ranking Composition Optimization), a framework that resolves this bias by decomposing each click by intent. Using the logged click type as a free behavioral label, MARCO trains per-intent CVR heads on homogeneous populations, and at serving time composes their per-intent CVR estimates under a predicted distribution over intents. Theoretically, we prove that decomposition never raises population risk, give the exact headroom under squared loss and non-negativity under the deployed loss, and show through a routing-efficiency dial how much of it reaches serving. Because the population-optimal score is unchanged, any gain is a finite-capacity estimation and calibration effect that we validated both offline and online. For deployment at scale, we further cast multi-impression, multi-click attribution as credit assignment with a bias-variance tradeoff analogous to RL return estimation, showing last-impression, first-click attribution is the low-bias, low-variance, deterministic choice under production constraints, and derive three consistency conditions enforced end-to-end at scale. Deployed at binary intent granularity, MARCO corrects per-intent calibration to approximately 100%, lifts conversions per click by +2.80%, and drives +0.98% cumulative improvement in topline metrics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

GR2 Technical Report

Industrial recommendation systems serve billions of users through a multi-stage funnel -- retrieval, early-stage ranking, and re-ranking -- where the final re-ranking step disproportionately shapes user engagement and downstream performance, particularly for carousel and grid display formats. Despite growing enthusiasm for Large Language Models (LLMs) in recommendation, three gaps hinder industrial adoption: (1) most efforts target retrieval and ranking, leaving re-ranking -- the stage closest to the final user experience -- largely underexplored; (2) LLMs are typically deployed zero-shot or via supervised fine-tuning, underutilizing the reasoning capabilities unlocked by reinforcement learning (RL) on verifiable rewards; (3) deployed catalogs index billions of items with non-semantic identifiers that lie outside any base-LLM vocabulary. We present GR2 (Generative Reasoning Re-Ranker), an end-to-end framework that combines (i) mid-training on semantic IDs produced by a tokenizer with >=99% uniqueness, (ii) reasoning-trace distilled from a stronger teacher via targeted prompting and rejection sampling, and (iii) RL with verifiable rewards purpose-built for re-ranking. To make GR2 resource-viable, we further (iv) introduce a context compressor that amortizes training cost, On-Policy Distillation (OPD) as a scalable alternative to SFT -- which we find collapses at industrial scale -- and reasoning distillation for low-latency serving. GR2 delivers +18.7% R@1, +7.1% R@3, and +9.6% N@3 over legacy baselines on industrial-scale traffic. We further find that reward design is critical in re-ranking: LLMs often hack rewards by preserving the incoming order or exploiting position bias, motivating conditional verifiable rewards as essential industrial components.

cs.IR↗