arXiv subjects

Bruce Desmarais

Publications and source records attributed to Bruce Desmarais.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Silence and Noise: Self-censorship and Opinion Expression on Social Media

Unlike the more observable phenomenon of group opinion reinforcement, self-censorship online has received comparatively less attention. Our goal in this work is to dissect the phenomena of self-censorship and to examine the implications of restrained expression for participation in public discourse, particularly in polarized contexts. We explore how social media users express their opinions online through analyses of 390 survey responses and 20 semi-structured interviews using a mixed-methods approach. We ask social media users about the differences between their publicly shared opinions and privately held beliefs, highlighting the influence of contextual factors on self-expression. Our findings show that self-censorship is associated with community context; social media users embedded within larger audiences, with lower posting frequency and perceived support, are less likely to express their opinions, and those who do speak often adjust their expressed views to align with perceived group norms. The study complements the rich literature on echo chambers and opinion reinforcement on social media platforms, highlighting the silence within the noise and its potential consequences for public discourse, which have become increasingly pertinent in an era where online platforms are pivotal to social and political narratives.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

GenAI vs. Human Fact-Checkers: Accurate Ratings, Flawed Rationales

Despite recent advances in understanding the capabilities and limits of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) models, we are just beginning to understand their capacity to assess and reason about the veracity of content. We evaluate multiple GenAI models across tasks that involve the rating of, and perceived reasoning about, the credibility of information. The information in our experiments comes from content that subnational U.S. politicians post to Facebook. We find that GPT-4o, one of the most used AI models in consumer applications, outperforms other models, but all models exhibit only moderate agreement with human coders. Importantly, even when GenAI models accurately identify low-credibility content, their reasoning relies heavily on linguistic features and ``hard'' criteria, such as the level of detail, source reliability, and language formality, rather than an understanding of veracity. We also assess the effectiveness of summarized versus full content inputs, finding that summarized content holds promise for improving efficiency without sacrificing accuracy. While GenAI has the potential to support human fact-checkers in scaling misinformation detection, our results caution against relying solely on these models.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

STAND: A Spatio-Temporal Algorithm for Network Diffusion Simulation

Information, ideas, and diseases, or more generally, contagions, spread over space and time through individual transmissions via social networks, as well as through external sources. A detailed picture of any diffusion process can be achieved only when both a good network structure and individual diffusion pathways are obtained. The advent of rich social, media and locational data allows us to study and model this diffusion process in more detail than previously possible. Nevertheless, how information, ideas or diseases are propagated through the network as an overall process is difficult to trace. This propagation is continuous over space and time, where individual transmissions occur at different rates via complex, latent connections. To tackle this challenge, a probabilistic spatiotemporal algorithm for network diffusion (STAND) is developed based on the survival model in this research. Both time and spatial distance are used as explanatory variables to simulate the diffusion process over two different network structures. The aim is to provide a more detailed measure of how different contagions are transmitted through various networks where nodes are geographic places at a large scale.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Triangulating War: Network Structure and the Democratic Peace

Decades of research has found that democratic dyads rarely exhibit violent tendencies, making the democratic peace arguably the principal finding of Peace Science. However, the democratic peace rests upon a dyadic understanding of conflict. Conflict rarely reflects a purely dyadic phenomena---even if a conflict is not multi-party, multiple states may be engaged in distinct disputes with the same enemy. We postulate a network theory of conflict that treats the democratic peace as a function of the competing interests of mixed-regime dyads and the strategic inefficiencies of fighting with enemies' enemies. Specifically, we find that a state's decision to engage in conflict with a target state is conditioned by the other states in which the target state is in conflict. When accounting for this network effect, we are unable to find support for the democratic peace. This suggests that the major finding of three decades worth of conflict research is spurious.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Weighted Exponential Random graph models: Scope and large network limits

We study models of weighted exponential random graphs in the large network limit. These models have recently been proposed to model weighted network data arising from a host of applications including socio-econometric data such as migration flows and neuroscience. Analogous to fundamental results derived for standard (unweighted) exponential random graph models in the work of Chatterjee and Diaconis, we derive limiting results for the structure of these models as the number of nodes goes to infinity. Our results are applicable for a wide variety of base measures including measures with unbounded support. We also derive sufficient conditions for continuity of functionals in the specification of the model including conditions on nodal covariates. Finally we include a number of open problems to spur further understanding of this model especially in the context of applications.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Stochastic Weighted Graphs: Flexible Model Specification and Simulation

In most domains of network analysis researchers consider networks that arise in nature with weighted edges. Such networks are routinely dichotomized in the interest of using available methods for statistical inference with networks. The generalized exponential random graph model (GERGM) is a recently proposed method used to simulate and model the edges of a weighted graph. The GERGM specifies a joint distribution for an exponential family of graphs with continuous-valued edge weights. However, current estimation algorithms for the GERGM only allow inference on a restricted family of model specifications. To address this issue, we develop a Metropolis--Hastings method that can be used to estimate any GERGM specification, thereby significantly extending the family of weighted graphs that can be modeled with the GERGM. We show that new flexible model specifications are capable of avoiding likelihood degeneracy and efficiently capturing network structure in applications where such models were not previously available. We demonstrate the utility of this new class of GERGMs through application to two real network data sets, and we further assess the effectiveness of our proposed methodology by simulating non-degenerate model specifications from the well-studied two-stars model. A working R version of the GERGM code is available in the supplement and will be incorporated in the gergm CRAN package.

stat.ME↗