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Bruce Kogut

Publications and source records attributed to Bruce Kogut.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Dynamic Topic Modeling for Cross-Corpus Temporal Analysis

Dynamic Embedded Topic Models (D-ETM) provide an interpretable framework for modeling temporal semantic evolution, but cross-corpus comparison remains difficult because topics are often learned independently and aligned only after training, a process that does not guarantee stable topic correspondence across corpora and time. To address this problem, we propose a D-ETM framework that first learns a common dynamic topic space over a merged multi-corpus collection, which we call the shared backbone, then introduces corpus-specific residual adaptation around the frozen backbone without creating separate latent topic spaces. This design preserves a shared topic index for cross-corpus comparison while allowing each corpus to specialize lexically. We evaluate the framework on three temporally structured corpora spanning 97 years: the Corpus of Historical American English, Harvard Business Review, and International Labour Review. Residual adaptation improves corpus-specific fit relative to the shared backbone while preserving the same-index cross-corpus topic trajectories, achieving substantially stronger alignment than full fine-tuning from the same backbone, with $97.5 \pm 0.7\%$ versus $17.9 \pm 1.1\%$ trajectory Retrieval@1, as well as stronger alignment than independent training with post-hoc Hungarian matching. These results suggest that incorporating topic alignment into the model can support more stable over-time cross-corpus comparisons while retaining corpus-specific lexical variation.

cs.CL

Digital Twins as Funhouse Mirrors: Five Key Distortions

Scientists and practitioners are increasingly moving to deploy digital twins--LLM-based models of real individuals--across social science and policy research. We conduct 19 pre-registered studies spanning 164 diverse outcomes (e.g., attitudes toward hiring algorithms, intentions to share misinformation), comparing human responses to those of their corresponding digital twins, which are trained on each individual's prior responses to over 500 questions. We establish an empirical benchmark for digital twin performance: their predictions are only modestly more accurate than those of a homogeneous base LLM and exhibit weak correlation with human responses (average $r = 0.20$). To inform future development, we identify five systematic distortions in digital twin behavior: (i) insufficient individuation, (ii) stereotyping, (iii) representation bias, (iv) ideological bias, and (v) hyper-rationality. Finally, we release our full dataset and code as a standardized testbed for evaluating and improving digital twin methodologies. Together, our findings caution against premature deployment while laying the groundwork for a transparent, replicable, and iterative science of responsible digital twin development.

cs.CY

Evons: A Dataset for Fake and Real News Virality Analysis and Prediction

We present a novel collection of news articles originating from fake and real news media sources for the analysis and prediction of news virality. Unlike existing fake news datasets which either contain claims or news article headline and body, in this collection each article is supported with a Facebook engagement count which we consider as an indicator of the article virality. In addition we also provide the article description and thumbnail image with which the article was shared on Facebook. These images were automatically annotated with object tags and color attributes. Using cloud based vision analysis tools, thumbnail images were also analyzed for faces and detected faces were annotated with facial attributes. We empirically investigate the use of this collection on an example task of article virality prediction.

cs.CV