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Bruce Wade

Publications and source records attributed to Bruce Wade.

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From Sublinear to Linear: Local Convergence in Finite-Width Networks via Locally Polyak-Lojasiewicz Regions

We study local linear convergence of gradient descent for finite-width feedforward networks under the squared empirical loss. Prior work shows that GD can remain confined to a Locally Quasi-Convex Region (LQCR) around initialization, but only gives a sublinear rate. We show that if the empirical Neural Tangent Kernel is positive at initialization, Lipschitz stable on the LQCR, and compatible with the LQCR radius, then the squared loss satisfies a local Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz inequality with constant $\mu = \lambda_0 - L_\Theta r(\Rcal) > 0$. Combined with fixed-step iterate containment in the LQCR, imposed as a hypothesis in the linear-rate theorem, this yields linear convergence on the region. The LQCR supplies localization; fixed-step containment is imposed as a hypothesis in the linear-rate theorem; and the PL inequality comes from NTK conditioning under squared loss. The result is therefore a sufficient local condition, not a claim that this mechanism is necessary or unique for fast convergence. Empirically, we probe the theory through NTK spectral gap, parameter drift, empirical PL ratio, and suboptimality decay. On binary MNIST, the NTK remains positive, the PL ratio has a positive lower envelope, and the loss shows geometric decay on the stable regime. In a width ablation, the fixed-step width-$1024$ run leaves the local regime; reducing the step size lowers final drift from $1.870$ to $0.158$, restores the observed local-regime diagnostics, and yields the largest empirical PL-ratio lower envelope observed in the study. A CNN robustness check on a CIFAR-10 subset shows the PL-ratio envelope remains positive across three seeds, with a positive lower envelope across all three seeds on the stable regime.

stat.ML

Bag of Coins: A Statistical Probe into Neural Confidence Structures

Modern neural networks often produce miscalibrated confidence scores and struggle to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs, while most existing methods post-process outputs without testing internal consistency. We introduce the Bag-of-Coins (BoC) probe, a non-parametric diagnostic of logit coherence that compares softmax confidence $\hat p$ to an aggregate of pairwise Luce-style dominance probabilities $\bar q$, yielding a deterministic coherence score and a p-value-based structural score. Across ViT, ResNet, and RoBERTa with ID/OOD test sets, the coherence gap $\Delta=\bar q-\hat p$ reveals clear ID/OOD separation for ViT (ID ${\sim}0.1$-$0.2$, OOD ${\sim}0.5$-$0.6$) but substantial overlap for ResNet and RoBERTa (both ${\sim}0$), indicating architecture-dependent uncertainty geometry. As a practical method, BoC improves calibration only when the base model is poorly calibrated (ViT: ECE $0.024$ vs.\ $0.180$) and underperforms standard calibrators (ECE ${\sim}0.005$), while for OOD detection it fails across architectures (AUROC $0.020$-$0.253$) compared to standard scores ($0.75$-$0.99$). We position BoC as a research diagnostic for interrogating how architectures encode uncertainty in logit geometry rather than a production calibration or OOD detection method.

stat.ML

CopulaSMOTE: A Copula-Based Oversampling Approach for Imbalanced Classification in Diabetes Prediction

Class imbalance remains a practical obstacle in the development of clinical prediction models for conditions such as diabetes mellitus, where the number of confirmed cases is often much smaller than the number of controls. The Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) and its variants are widely used to address this imbalance, but they generate synthetic observations through local interpolation in feature space and do not explicitly model the joint dependence structure of the minority class. To address this challenge, our study introduces a copula-based data augmentation approach that estimates the minority-class dependence structure when generating synthetic samples and integrates with standard machine learning techniques. Specifically, we employ truncated vine copulas to represent multivariate dependence through a sequence of bivariate building blocks. We evaluate the proposed approach on three public diabetes datasets, namely the Pima Indians Diabetes dataset, the Iraqi Diabetes dataset, and the CDC BRFSS 2015 Diabetes Health Indicators dataset, which together cover a range of sample sizes, dimensionalities, and imbalance regimes. For each dataset, five resampling strategies are compared across five classifiers using a 5 by 2 cross validation protocol with Dietterich's paired t test. Our findings suggest that CopulaSMOTE can improve minority-class recovery in larger tabular diabetes datasets, particularly the CDC BRFSS dataset, but its advantages depend on the classifier and evaluation metric.

cs.LG

A2 Copula-Driven Spatial Bayesian Neural Network For Modeling Non-Gaussian Dependence: A Simulation Study

In this paper, we introduce the A2 Copula Spatial Bayesian Neural Network (A2-SBNN), a predictive spatial model designed to map coordinates to continuous fields while capturing both typical spatial patterns and extreme dependencies. By embedding the dual-tail novel Archimedean copula viz. A2 directly into the network's weight initialization, A2-SBNN naturally models complex spatial relationships, including rare co-movements in the data. The model is trained through a calibration-driven process combining Wasserstein loss, moment matching, and correlation penalties to refine predictions and manage uncertainty. Simulation results show that A2-SBNN consistently delivers high accuracy across a wide range of dependency strengths, offering a new, effective solution for spatial data modeling beyond traditional Gaussian-based approaches.

stat.ME