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Bruno Ribeiro

Publications and source records attributed to Bruno Ribeiro.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

Temporal Clustering in Dynamic Networks with Tensor Decomposition

Dynamic networks are increasingly being usedd to model real world datasets. A challenging task in their analysis is to detect and characterize clusters. It is useful for analyzing real-world data such as detecting evolving communities in networks. We propose a temporal clustering framework based on a set of network generative models to address this problem. We use PARAFAC decomposition to learn network models from datasets.We then use $K$-means for clustering, the Silhouette criterion to determine the number of clusters, and a similarity score to order the clusters and retain the significant ones. In order to address the time-dependent aspect of these clusters, we propose a segmentation algorithm to detect their formations, dissolutions and lifetimes. Synthetic networks with ground truth and real-world datasets are used to test our method against state-of-the-art, and the results show that our method has better performance in clustering and lifetime detection than previous methods.

cs.SI↗

TribeFlow: Mining & Predicting User Trajectories

Which song will Smith listen to next? Which restaurant will Alice go to tomorrow? Which product will John click next? These applications have in common the prediction of user trajectories that are in a constant state of flux over a hidden network (e.g. website links, geographic location). What users are doing now may be unrelated to what they will be doing in an hour from now. Mindful of these challenges we propose TribeFlow, a method designed to cope with the complex challenges of learning personalized predictive models of non-stationary, transient, and time-heterogeneous user trajectories. TribeFlow is a general method that can perform next product recommendation, next song recommendation, next location prediction, and general arbitrary-length user trajectory prediction without domain-specific knowledge. TribeFlow is more accurate and up to 413x faster than top competitors.

cs.SI↗

Bayesian Inference of Online Social Network Statistics via Lightweight Random Walk Crawls

Online social networks (OSN) contain extensive amount of information about the underlying society that is yet to be explored. One of the most feasible technique to fetch information from OSN, crawling through Application Programming Interface (API) requests, poses serious concerns over the the guarantees of the estimates. In this work, we focus on making reliable statistical inference with limited API crawls. Based on regenerative properties of the random walks, we propose an unbiased estimator for the aggregated sum of functions over edges and proved the connection between variance of the estimator and spectral gap. In order to facilitate Bayesian inference on the true value of the estimator, we derive the approximate posterior distribution of the estimate. Later the proposed ideas are validated with numerical experiments on inference problems in real-world networks.

cs.SI↗

On the duration and intensity of cumulative advantage competitions

The role of skill (fitness) and luck (randomness) as driving forces on the dynamics of resource accumulation in a myriad of systems have long puzzled scientists. Fueled by undisputed inequalities that emerge from actual competitions, there is a pressing need for better understanding the effects of skill and luck in resource accumulation. When such competitions are driven by externalities such as cumulative advantage (CA), the rich-get-richer effect, little is known with respect to fundamental properties such as their duration and intensity. In this work we provide a mathematical understanding of how CA exacerbates the role of luck in detriment of skill in simple and well-studied competition models. We show, for instance, that if two agents are competing for resources that arrive sequentially at each time unit, an early stroke of luck can place the less skilled in the lead for an extremely long period of time, a phenomenon we call "struggle of the fittest". In the absence of CA, the more skilled quickly prevails despite any early stroke of luck that the less skilled may have. We prove that duration of a simple skill and luck competition model exhibit power law tails when CA is present, regardless of skill difference, which is in sharp contrast to exponential tails when CA is absent. Our findings have important implications to competitions not only in complex social systems but also in contexts that leverage such models.

physics.soc-ph↗

Modeling Website Popularity Competition in the Attention-Activity Marketplace

How does a new startup drive the popularity of competing websites into oblivion like Facebook famously did to MySpace? This question is of great interest to academics, technologists, and financial investors alike. In this work we exploit the singular way in which Facebook wiped out the popularity of MySpace, Hi5, Friendster, and Multiply to guide the design of a new popularity competition model. Our model provides new insights into what Nobel Laureate Herbert A. Simon called the "marketplace of attention," which we recast as the attention-activity marketplace. Our model design is further substantiated by user-level activity of 250,000 MySpace users obtained between 2004 and 2009. The resulting model not only accurately fits the observed Daily Active Users (DAU) of Facebook and its competitors but also predicts their fate four years into the future.

physics.soc-ph↗

Revisit Behavior in Social Media: The Phoenix-R Model and Discoveries

How many listens will an artist receive on a online radio? How about plays on a YouTube video? How many of these visits are new or returning users? Modeling and mining popularity dynamics of social activity has important implications for researchers, content creators and providers. We here investigate the effect of revisits (successive visits from a single user) on content popularity. Using four datasets of social activity, with up to tens of millions media objects (e.g., YouTube videos, Twitter hashtags or LastFM artists), we show the effect of revisits in the popularity evolution of such objects. Secondly, we propose the Phoenix-R model which captures the popularity dynamics of individual objects. Phoenix-R has the desired properties of being: (1) parsimonious, being based on the minimum description length principle, and achieving lower root mean squared error than state-of-the-art baselines; (2) applicable, the model is effective for predicting future popularity values of objects.

cs.SI↗

Efficient Network Generation Under General Preferential Attachment

Preferential attachment (PA) models of network structure are widely used due to their explanatory power and conceptual simplicity. PA models are able to account for the scale-free degree distributions observed in many real-world large networks through the remarkably simple mechanism of sequentially introducing nodes that attach preferentially to high-degree nodes. The ability to efficiently generate instances from PA models is a key asset in understanding both the models themselves and the real networks that they represent. Surprisingly, little attention has been paid to the problem of efficient instance generation. In this paper, we show that the complexity of generating network instances from a PA model depends on the preference function of the model, provide efficient data structures that work under any preference function, and present empirical results from an implementation based on these data structures. We demonstrate that, by indexing growing networks with a simple augmented heap, we can implement a network generator which scales many orders of magnitude beyond existing capabilities ($10^6$ -- $10^8$ nodes). We show the utility of an efficient and general PA network generator by investigating the consequences of varying the preference functions of an existing model. We also provide "quicknet", a freely-available open-source implementation of the methods described in this work.

cs.SI↗

Efficiently Estimating Motif Statistics of Large Networks

Exploring statistics of locally connected subgraph patterns (also known as network motifs) has helped researchers better understand the structure and function of biological and online social networks (OSNs). Nowadays the massive size of some critical networks -- often stored in already overloaded relational databases -- effectively limits the rate at which nodes and edges can be explored, making it a challenge to accurately discover subgraph statistics. In this work, we propose sampling methods to accurately estimate subgraph statistics from as few queried nodes as possible. We present sampling algorithms that efficiently and accurately estimate subgraph properties of massive networks. Our algorithms require no pre-computation or complete network topology information. At the same time, we provide theoretical guarantees of convergence. We perform experiments using widely known data sets, and show that for the same accuracy, our algorithms require an order of magnitude less queries (samples) than the current state-of-the-art algorithms.

cs.SI↗

Online Dating Recommendations: Matching Markets and Learning Preferences

Recommendation systems for online dating have recently attracted much attention from the research community. In this paper we proposed a two-side matching framework for online dating recommendations and design an LDA model to learn the user preferences from the observed user messaging behavior and user profile features. Experimental results using data from a large online dating website shows that two-sided matching improves significantly the rate of successful matches by as much as 45%. Finally, using simulated matchings we show that the the LDA model can correctly capture user preferences.

cs.SI↗

Classifying Latent Infection States in Complex Networks

Algorithms for identifying the infection states of nodes in a network are crucial for understanding and containing infections. Often, however, only a relatively small set of nodes have a known infection state. Moreover, the length of time that each node has been infected is also unknown. This missing data -- infection state of most nodes and infection time of the unobserved infected nodes -- poses a challenge to the study of real-world cascades. In this work, we develop techniques to identify the latent infected nodes in the presence of missing infection time-and-state data. Based on the likely epidemic paths predicted by the simple susceptible-infected epidemic model, we propose a measure (Infection Betweenness) for uncovering these unknown infection states. Our experimental results using machine learning algorithms show that Infection Betweenness is the most effective feature for identifying latent infected nodes.

cs.SI↗

Modeling and Predicting the Growth and Death of Membership-based Websites

Driven by outstanding success stories of Internet startups such as Facebook and The Huffington Post, recent studies have thoroughly described their growth. These highly visible online success stories, however, overshadow an untold number of similar ventures that fail. The study of website popularity is ultimately incomplete without general mechanisms that can describe both successes and failures. In this work we present six years of the daily number of users (DAU) of twenty-two membership-based websites - encompassing online social networks, grassroots movements, online forums, and membership-only Internet stores - well balanced between successes and failures. We then propose a combination of reaction-diffusion-decay processes whose resulting equations seem not only to describe well the observed DAU time series but also provide means to roughly predict their evolution. This model allows an approximate automatic DAU-based classification of websites into self-sustainable v.s. unsustainable and whether the startup growth is mostly driven by marketing & media campaigns or word-of-mouth adoptions.

physics.soc-ph↗

Who is Dating Whom: Characterizing User Behaviors of a Large Online Dating Site

Online dating sites have become popular platforms for people to look for potential romantic partners. It is important to understand users' dating preferences in order to make better recommendations on potential dates. The message sending and replying actions of a user are strong indicators for what he/she is looking for in a potential date and reflect the user's actual dating preferences. We study how users' online dating behaviors correlate with various user attributes using a large real-world dateset from a major online dating site in China. Many of our results on user messaging behavior align with notions in social and evolutionary psychology: males tend to look for younger females while females put more emphasis on the socioeconomic status (e.g., income, education level) of a potential date. In addition, we observe that the geographic distance between two users and the photo count of users play an important role in their dating behaviors. Our results show that it is important to differentiate between users' true preferences and random selection. Some user behaviors in choosing attributes in a potential date may largely be a result of random selection. We also find that both males and females are more likely to reply to users whose attributes come closest to the stated preferences of the receivers, and there is significant discrepancy between a user's stated dating preference and his/her actual online dating behavior. These results can provide valuable guidelines to the design of a recommendation engine for potential dates.

cs.SI↗

Practical Characterization of Large Networks Using Neighborhood Information

Characterizing large online social networks (OSNs) through node querying is a challenging task. OSNs often impose severe constraints on the query rate, hence limiting the sample size to a small fraction of the total network. Various ad-hoc subgraph sampling methods have been proposed, but many of them give biased estimates and no theoretical basis on the accuracy. In this work, we focus on developing sampling methods for OSNs where querying a node also reveals partial structural information about its neighbors. Our methods are optimized for NoSQL graph databases (if the database can be accessed directly), or utilize Web API available on most major OSNs for graph sampling. We show that our sampling method has provable convergence guarantees on being an unbiased estimator, and it is more accurate than current state-of-the-art methods. We characterize metrics such as node label density estimation and edge label density estimation, two of the most fundamental network characteristics from which other network characteristics can be derived. We evaluate our methods on-the-fly over several live networks using their native APIs. Our simulation studies over a variety of offline datasets show that by including neighborhood information, our method drastically (4-fold) reduces the number of samples required to achieve the same estimation accuracy of state-of-the-art methods.

cs.SI↗

Quantifying the effect of temporal resolution on time-varying networks

Time-varying networks describe a wide array of systems whose constituents and interactions evolve over time. They are defined by an ordered stream of interactions between nodes, yet they are often represented in terms of a sequence of static networks, each aggregating all edges and nodes present in a time interval of size Δt. In this work we quantify the impact of an arbitrary Δt on the description of a dynamical process taking place upon a time-varying network. We focus on the elementary random walk, and put forth a simple mathematical framework that well describes the behavior observed on real datasets. The analytical description of the bias introduced by time integrating techniques represents a step forward in the correct characterization of dynamical processes on time-varying graphs.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

Red bulgeless galaxies in SDSS DR7. Are there any AGN hosts?

With the main goal of finding bulgeless galaxies harbouring super massive black holes and showing, at most, just residual star formation activity, we have selected a sample of massive bulgeless red sequence galaxies from the SDSS-DR7, based on the NYU-VAGC catalogue. Multivavelength data were retrieved using EURO-VO tools, and the objects are characterised in terms of degree of star formation and the presence of an AGN. We have found seven objects that are quenched massive galaxies, that have no prominent bulge and that show signs of extra activity in their nuclei, five of them being central in their halo. These objects are rather robust candidates for rare systems that, though devoid of a significant bulge, harbor a supermassive black hole with an activity level likely capable of having halted the star formation through feedback.

astro-ph.CO↗

Characterizing Branching Processes from Sampled Data

Branching processes model the evolution of populations of agents that randomly generate offsprings. These processes, more patently Galton-Watson processes, are widely used to model biological, social, cognitive, and technological phenomena, such as the diffusion of ideas, knowledge, chain letters, viruses, and the evolution of humans through their Y-chromosome DNA or mitochondrial RNA. A practical challenge of modeling real phenomena using a Galton-Watson process is the offspring distribution, which must be measured from the population. In most cases, however, directly measuring the offspring distribution is unrealistic due to lack of resources or the death of agents. So far, researchers have relied on informed guesses to guide their choice of offspring distribution. In this work we propose two methods to estimate the offspring distribution from real sampled data. Using a small sampled fraction of the agents and instrumented with the identity of the ancestors of the sampled agents, we show that accurate offspring distribution estimates can be obtained by sampling as little as 14% of the population.

stat.AP↗

Online Myopic Network Covering

Efficient marketing or awareness-raising campaigns seek to recruit $n$ influential individuals -- where $n$ is the campaign budget -- that are able to cover a large target audience through their social connections. So far most of the related literature on maximizing this network cover assumes that the social network topology is known. Even in such a case the optimal solution is NP-hard. In practice, however, the network topology is generally unknown and needs to be discovered on-the-fly. In this work we consider an unknown topology where recruited individuals disclose their social connections (a feature known as {\em one-hop lookahead}). The goal of this work is to provide an efficient greedy online algorithm that recruits individuals as to maximize the size of target audience covered by the campaign. We propose a new greedy online algorithm, Maximum Expected $d$-Excess Degree (MEED), and provide, to the best of our knowledge, the first detailed theoretical analysis of the cover size of a variety of well known network sampling algorithms on finite networks. Our proposed algorithm greedily maximizes the expected size of the cover. For a class of random power law networks we show that MEED simplifies into a straightforward procedure, which we denote MOD (Maximum Observed Degree). We substantiate our analytical results with extensive simulations and show that MOD significantly outperforms all analyzed myopic algorithms. We note that performance may be further improved if the node degree distribution is known or can be estimated online during the campaign.

cs.SI↗

Characterizing Continuous Time Random Walks on Time Varying Graphs

In this paper we study the behavior of a continuous time random walk (CTRW) on a stationary and ergodic time varying dynamic graph. We establish conditions under which the CTRW is a stationary and ergodic process. In general, the stationary distribution of the walker depends on the walker rate and is difficult to characterize. However, we characterize the stationary distribution in the following cases: i) the walker rate is significantly larger or smaller than the rate in which the graph changes (time-scale separation), ii) the walker rate is proportional to the degree of the node that it resides on (coupled dynamics), and iii) the degrees of node belonging to the same connected component are identical (structural constraints). We provide examples that illustrate our theoretical findings.

cs.SI↗