arXiv subjects

Budrul Ahsan

Publications and source records attributed to Budrul Ahsan.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Forecasting Japanese elections: A nonlinear machine-learning approach

Despite Japan being one of the world's largest advanced democracies, the development of election forecasting models for its national elections remains limited. This study introduces nonlinear machine-learning forecasting models, based on decision tree and ensemble learning methods, for predicting the outcomes of Japanese lower-house elections. To assess the methodological benefits of our approach, we replicated the theoretical framework and dataset of Lewis-Beck and Tien's (LBT) foundational statistical forecasting model for Japanese elections. Our models demonstrated moderately but consistently improved predictive accuracy compared to LBT's model in both in-sample and out-of-sample evaluations, suggesting that nonlinear algorithms offer an alternative approach to classical linear methods in capturing complex electoral dynamics. This study represents one of the earlier applications of nonlinear machine-learning techniques to single-country election forecasting. It offers a replicable framework that, when combined with the country-specific electoral theories of other nations, may enhance the predictive performance of forecasting models in broader national contexts.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Testing the Power-Law Hypothesis of the Inter-Conflict Interval

The severity of war, measured by battle deaths, follows a power-law distribution. Here, we demonstrate that power law also holds in the temporal aspects of interstate conflicts. A critical quantity is the inter-conflict interval (ICI), the interval between the end of a conflict in a dyad and the start of the subsequent conflict in the same dyad. Using elaborate statistical tests, we confirmed that the ICI samples compiled from the history of interstate conflicts from 1816 to 2014 followed a power-law distribution. We propose an information-theoretic model to account for the power-law properties of ICIs. The model predicts that a series of ICIs in each dyad is independently generated from an identical power-law distribution. This was confirmed by statistical examination of the autocorrelation of the ICI series. Our findings help us understand the nature of wars between normal states, the significance of which has increased since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Regularization with Latent Space Virtual Adversarial Training

Virtual Adversarial Training (VAT) has shown impressive results among recently developed regularization methods called consistency regularization. VAT utilizes adversarial samples, generated by injecting perturbation in the input space, for training and thereby enhances the generalization ability of a classifier. However, such adversarial samples can be generated only within a very small area around the input data point, which limits the adversarial effectiveness of such samples. To address this problem we propose LVAT (Latent space VAT), which injects perturbation in the latent space instead of the input space. LVAT can generate adversarial samples flexibly, resulting in more adverse effects and thus more effective regularization. The latent space is built by a generative model, and in this paper, we examine two different type of models: variational auto-encoder and normalizing flow, specifically Glow. We evaluated the performance of our method in both supervised and semi-supervised learning scenarios for an image classification task using SVHN and CIFAR-10 datasets. In our evaluation, we found that our method outperforms VAT and other state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Out-of-Distribution Detection with Reconstruction Error and Typicality-based Penalty

The task of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is vital to realize safe and reliable operation for real-world applications. After the failure of likelihood-based detection in high dimensions had been shown, approaches based on the \emph{typical set} have been attracting attention; however, they still have not achieved satisfactory performance. Beginning by presenting the failure case of the typicality-based approach, we propose a new reconstruction error-based approach that employs normalizing flow (NF). We further introduce a typicality-based penalty, and by incorporating it into the reconstruction error in NF, we propose a new OOD detection method, penalized reconstruction error (PRE). Because the PRE detects test inputs that lie off the in-distribution manifold, it effectively detects adversarial examples as well as OOD examples. We show the effectiveness of our method through the evaluation using natural image datasets, CIFAR-10, TinyImageNet, and ILSVRC2012.

cs.LG↗