Event-Aware Loss Design for Forecasting of Convective Precipitation and Lightning
Accurate forecasting of high-impact weather, specifically extreme precipitation and lightning, remains a significant challenge in numerical weather prediction (NWP) due to the complexity of atmospheric microphysics. While deep-learning models have shown promise in large-scale forecasting, they often suffer from systematic under-prediction of rare, high-intensity events and localized convective showers when optimized with conventional loss functions like Mean Squared Error (MSE). This study proposes an Event-Aware multi-task deep-learning post-processing framework designed to improve the representation of convective processes by leveraging lightning observations. The model jointly predicts precipitation amount, rainfall probability, and lightning occurrence using a shared-backbone Patch-cGAN (Conditional Generative Adversarial Network) architecture. To address the rare event problem, we introduce a lightning-informed loss-weighting strategy that element-wisely multiplies the MSE component by a spatial weight map derived from observed lightning strikes, forcing the model to prioritize accuracy in convective regions during training. Evaluations conducted over the Korean Peninsula during the 2025 Summer demonstrate that our framework outperforms standard AI benchmarks and conventional NWP models, particularly at intense rainfall thresholds (40 mm/6 h). Furthermore, the model exhibits superior skill in predicting lightning compared to conventional lightning parameterization and instability-index-based methods. These results indicate that integrating physical event indicators into the loss formulation effectively guides models to learn the meteorological signatures of deep convection, offering a pathway toward more reliable extreme weather forecasting.