arXiv subjects

C. A. J. Duncan

Publications and source records attributed to C. A. J. Duncan.

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arXiv2022

Euclid: Forecast constraints on consistency tests of the $Λ$CDM model

The standard cosmological model is based on the fundamental assumptions of a spatially homogeneous and isotropic universe on large scales. An observational detection of a violation of these assumptions at any redshift would immediately indicate the presence of new physics. We quantify the ability of the Euclid mission, together with contemporary surveys, to improve the current sensitivity of null tests of the canonical cosmological constant $Λ$ and the cold dark matter (LCDM) model in the redshift range $0<z<1.8$. We considered both currently available data and simulated Euclid and external data products based on a LCDM fiducial model, an evolving dark energy model assuming the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parameterization or an inhomogeneous Lema\^ıtre-Tolman-Bondi model with a cosmological constant $Λ$ (LLTB), and carried out two separate but complementary analyses: a machine learning reconstruction of the null tests based on genetic algorithms, and a theory-agnostic parametric approach based on Taylor expansion and binning of the data, in order to avoid assumptions about any particular model. We find that in combination with external probes, Euclid can improve current constraints on null tests of the LCDM by approximately a factor of three when using the machine learning approach and by a further factor of two in the case of the parametric approach. However, we also find that in certain cases, the parametric approach may be biased against or missing some features of models far from LCDM. Our analysis highlights the importance of synergies between Euclid and other surveys. These synergies are crucial for providing tighter constraints over an extended redshift range for a plethora of different consistency tests of some of the main assumptions of the current cosmological paradigm.

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arXiv2022

Euclid: Covariance of weak lensing pseudo-$C_\ell$ estimates. Calculation, comparison to simulations, and dependence on survey geometry

An accurate covariance matrix is essential for obtaining reliable cosmological results when using a Gaussian likelihood. In this paper we study the covariance of pseudo-$C_\ell$ estimates of tomographic cosmic shear power spectra. Using two existing publicly available codes in combination, we calculate the full covariance matrix, including mode-coupling contributions arising from both partial sky coverage and non-linear structure growth. For three different sky masks, we compare the theoretical covariance matrix to that estimated from publicly available N-body weak lensing simulations, finding good agreement. We find that as a more extreme sky cut is applied, a corresponding increase in both Gaussian off-diagonal covariance and non-Gaussian super-sample covariance is observed in both theory and simulations, in accordance with expectations. Studying the different contributions to the covariance in detail, we find that the Gaussian covariance dominates along the main diagonal and the closest off-diagonals, but further away from the main diagonal the super-sample covariance is dominant. Forming mock constraints in parameters describing matter clustering and dark energy, we find that neglecting non-Gaussian contributions to the covariance can lead to underestimating the true size of confidence regions by up to 70 per cent. The dominant non-Gaussian covariance component is the super-sample covariance, but neglecting the smaller connected non-Gaussian covariance can still lead to the underestimation of uncertainties by 10--20 per cent. A real cosmological analysis will require marginalisation over many nuisance parameters, which will decrease the relative importance of all cosmological contributions to the covariance, so these values should be taken as upper limits on the importance of each component.

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arXiv2021

Euclid: Forecasts from redshift-space distortions and the Alcock-Paczynski test with cosmic voids

Euclid is poised to survey galaxies across a cosmological volume of unprecedented size, providing observations of more than a billion objects distributed over a third of the full sky. Approximately 20 million of these galaxies will have their spectroscopy available, allowing us to map the 3D large-scale structure of the Universe in great detail. This paper investigates prospects for the detection of cosmic voids therein and the unique benefit they provide for cosmology. In particular, we study the imprints of dynamic and geometric distortions of average void shapes and their constraining power on the growth of structure and cosmological distance ratios. To this end, we made use of the Flagship mock catalog, a state-of-the-art simulation of the data expected to be observed with Euclid. We arranged the data into four adjacent redshift bins, each of which contains about 11000 voids and estimated the stacked void-galaxy cross-correlation function in every bin. Fitting a linear-theory model to the data, we obtained constraints on $f/b$ and $D_M H$, where $f$ is the linear growth rate of density fluctuations, $b$ the galaxy bias, $D_M$ the comoving angular diameter distance, and $H$ the Hubble rate. In addition, we marginalized over two nuisance parameters included in our model to account for unknown systematic effects. With this approach, Euclid will be able to reach a relative precision of about 4% on measurements of $f/b$ and 0.5% on $D_M H$ in each redshift bin. Better modeling or calibration of the nuisance parameters may further increase this precision to 1% and 0.4%, respectively. Our results show that the exploitation of cosmic voids in Euclid will provide competitive constraints on cosmology even as a stand-alone probe. For example, the equation-of-state parameter $w$ for dark energy will be measured with a precision of about 10%, consistent with previous more approximate forecasts.

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arXiv2021

Euclid preparation: XVIII. Cosmic Dawn Survey. Spitzer observations of the Euclid deep fields and calibration fields

We present a new infrared survey covering the three Euclid deep fields and four other Euclid calibration fields using Spitzer's Infrared Array Camera (IRAC). We have combined these new observations with all relevant IRAC archival data of these fields in order to produce the deepest possible mosaics of these regions. In total, these observations represent nearly 11% of the total Spitzer mission time. The resulting mosaics cover a total of approximately 71.5deg$^2$ in the 3.6 and 4.5um bands, and approximately 21.8deg$^2$ in the 5.8 and 8um bands. They reach at least 24 AB magnitude (measured to sigma, in a 2.5 arcsec aperture) in the 3.6um band and up to ~ 5 mag deeper in the deepest regions. The astrometry is tied to the Gaia astrometric reference system, and the typical astrometric uncertainty for sources with 16<[3.6]<19 is <0.15 arcsec. The photometric calibration is in excellent agreement with previous WISE measurements. We have extracted source number counts from the 3.6um band mosaics and they are in excellent agreement with previous measurements. Given that the Spitzer Space Telescope has now been decommissioned these mosaics are likely to be the definitive reduction of these IRAC data. This survey therefore represents an essential first step in assembling multi-wavelength data on the Euclid deep fields which are set to become some of the premier fields for extragalactic astronomy in the 2020s.

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arXiv2021

$Euclid$ preparation: XV. Forecasting cosmological constraints for the $Euclid$ and CMB joint analysis

The combination and cross-correlation of the upcoming $Euclid$ data with cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements is a source of great expectation since it will provide the largest lever arm of epochs, ranging from recombination to structure formation across the entire past light cone. In this work, we present forecasts for the joint analysis of $Euclid$ and CMB data on the cosmological parameters of the standard cosmological model and some of its extensions. This work expands and complements the recently published forecasts based on $Euclid$-specific probes, namely galaxy clustering, weak lensing, and their cross-correlation. With some assumptions on the specifications of current and future CMB experiments, the predicted constraints are obtained from both a standard Fisher formalism and a posterior-fitting approach based on actual CMB data. Compared to a $Euclid$-only analysis, the addition of CMB data leads to a substantial impact on constraints for all cosmological parameters of the standard $Λ$-cold-dark-matter model, with improvements reaching up to a factor of ten. For the parameters of extended models, which include a redshift-dependent dark energy equation of state, non-zero curvature, and a phenomenological modification of gravity, improvements can be of the order of two to three, reaching higher than ten in some cases. The results highlight the crucial importance for cosmological constraints of the combination and cross-correlation of $Euclid$ probes with CMB data.

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arXiv2021

Euclid preparation: XVI. Exploring the ultra low-surface brightness Universe with Euclid/VIS

While Euclid is an ESA mission specifically designed to investigate the nature of Dark Energy and Dark Matter, the planned unprecedented combination of survey area ($\sim15\,000$ deg$^2$), spatial resolution, low sky-background, and depth also make Euclid an excellent space observatory for the study of the low surface brightness Universe. Scientific exploitation of the extended low surface brightness structures requires dedicated calibration procedures yet to be tested. We investigate the capabilities of Euclid to detect extended low surface brightness structure by identifying and quantifying sky background sources and stray-light contamination. We test the feasibility of generating sky flat-fields to reduce large-scale residual gradients in order to reveal the extended emission of galaxies observed in the Euclid Survey. We simulate a realistic set of Euclid/VIS observations, taking into account both instrumental and astronomical sources of contamination, including cosmic rays, stray-light, zodiacal light, ISM, and the CIB, while simulating the effects of the presence of background sources in the FOV. We demonstrate that a combination of calibration lamps, sky flats and self-calibration would enable recovery of emission at a limiting surface brightness magnitude of $μ=29.5^{+0.08}_{-0.27} $ mag arcsec$^{-2}$ ($3σ$, $10\times10$ arcsec$^2$) in the Wide Survey, reaching regions 2 magnitudes deeper in the Deep Surveys. Euclid/VIS has the potential to be an excellent low surface brightness observatory. Covering the gap between pixel-to-pixel calibration lamp flats and self-calibration observations for large scales, the application of sky flat-fielding will enhance the sensitivity of the VIS detector at scales of larger than 1 degree, up to the size of the FOV, enabling Euclid to detect extended surface brightness structures below $μ=31$ mag arcsec$^{-2}$ and beyond.

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arXiv2021

Euclid preparation: I. The Euclid Wide Survey

Euclid is an ESA mission designed to constrain the properties of dark energy and gravity via weak gravitational lensing and galaxy clustering. It will carry out a wide area imaging and spectroscopy survey (EWS) in visible and near-infrared, covering roughly 15,000 square degrees of extragalactic sky on six years. The wide-field telescope and instruments are optimized for pristine PSF and reduced straylight, producing very crisp images. This paper presents the building of the Euclid reference survey: the sequence of pointings of EWS, Deep fields, Auxiliary fields for calibrations, and spacecraft movements followed by Euclid as it operates in a step-and-stare mode from its orbit around the Lagrange point L2. Each EWS pointing has four dithered frames; we simulate the dither pattern at pixel level to analyse the effective coverage. We use up-to-date models for the sky background to define the Euclid region-of-interest (RoI). The building of the reference survey is highly constrained from calibration cadences, spacecraft constraints and background levels; synergies with ground-based coverage are also considered. Via purposely-built software optimized to prioritize best sky areas, produce a compact coverage, and ensure thermal stability, we generate a schedule for the Auxiliary and Deep fields observations and schedule the RoI with EWS transit observations. The resulting reference survey RSD_2021A fulfills all constraints and is a good proxy for the final solution. Its wide survey covers 14,500 square degrees. The limiting AB magnitudes ($5σ$ point-like source) achieved in its footprint are estimated to be 26.2 (visible) and 24.5 (near-infrared); for spectroscopy, the H$_α$ line flux limit is $2\times 10^{-16}$ erg cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$ at 1600 nm; and for diffuse emission the surface brightness limits are 29.8 (visible) and 28.4 (near-infrared) mag arcsec$^{-2}$.

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arXiv2020

Euclid preparation: VII. Forecast validation for Euclid cosmological probes

The Euclid space telescope will measure the shapes and redshifts of galaxies to reconstruct the expansion history of the Universe and the growth of cosmic structures. Estimation of the expected performance of the experiment, in terms of predicted constraints on cosmological parameters, has so far relied on different methodologies and numerical implementations, developed for different observational probes and for their combination. In this paper we present validated forecasts, that combine both theoretical and observational expertise for different cosmological probes. This is presented to provide the community with reliable numerical codes and methods for Euclid cosmological forecasts. We describe in detail the methodology adopted for Fisher matrix forecasts, applied to galaxy clustering, weak lensing and their combination. We estimate the required accuracy for Euclid forecasts and outline a methodology for their development. We then compare and improve different numerical implementations, reaching uncertainties on the errors of cosmological parameters that are less than the required precision in all cases. Furthermore, we provide details on the validated implementations that can be used by the reader to validate their own codes if required. We present new cosmological forecasts for Euclid. We find that results depend on the specific cosmological model and remaining freedom in each setup, i.e. flat or non-flat spatial cosmologies, or different cuts at nonlinear scales. The validated numerical implementations can now be reliably used for any setup. We present results for an optimistic and a pessimistic choice of such settings. We demonstrate that the impact of cross-correlations is particularly relevant for models beyond a cosmological constant and may allow us to increase the dark energy Figure of Merit by at least a factor of three.

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arXiv2020

Euclid preparation: X. The Euclid photometric-redshift challenge

Forthcoming large photometric surveys for cosmology require precise and accurate photometric redshift (photo-z) measurements for the success of their main science objectives. However, to date, no method has been able to produce photo-$z$s at the required accuracy using only the broad-band photometry that those surveys will provide. An assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current methods is a crucial step in the eventual development of an approach to meet this challenge. We report on the performance of 13 photometric redshift code single value redshift estimates and redshift probability distributions (PDZs) on a common set of data, focusing particularly on the 0.2--2.6 redshift range that the Euclid mission will probe. We design a challenge using emulated Euclid data drawn from three photometric surveys of the COSMOS field. The data are divided into two samples: one calibration sample for which photometry and redshifts are provided to the participants; and the validation sample, containing only the photometry, to ensure a blinded test of the methods. Participants were invited to provide a redshift single value estimate and a PDZ for each source in the validation sample, along with a rejection flag that indicates sources they consider unfit for use in cosmological analyses. The performance of each method is assessed through a set of informative metrics, using cross-matched spectroscopic and highly-accurate photometric redshifts as the ground truth. We show that the rejection criteria set by participants are efficient in removing strong outliers, sources for which the photo-z deviates by more than 0.15(1+z) from the spectroscopic-redshift (spec-z). We also show that, while all methods are able to provide reliable single value estimates, several machine-learning methods do not manage to produce useful PDZs. [abridged]

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arXiv2020

Euclid preparation: IX. EuclidEmulator2 -- Power spectrum emulation with massive neutrinos and self-consistent dark energy perturbations

We present a new, updated version of the EuclidEmulator (called EuclidEmulator2), a fast and accurate predictor for the nonlinear correction of the matter power spectrum. Percent-level accurate emulation is now supported in the eight-dimensional parameter space of $w_0w_a$CDM$+\sum m_ν$models between redshift $z=0$ and $z=3$ for spatial scales within the range 0.01 $h$/Mpc $\leq k \leq$ 10 $h$/Mpc. In order to achieve this level of accuracy, we have had to improve the quality of the underlying N-body simulations used as training data: (1) we use self-consistent linear evolution of non-dark matter species such as massive neutrinos, photons, dark energy and the metric field, (2) we perform the simulations in the so-called N-body gauge, which allows one to interpret the results in the framework of general relativity, (3) we run over 250 high-resolution simulations with $3000^3$ particles in boxes of 1 (Gpc/$h$)${}^3$ volumes based on paired-and-fixed initial conditions and (4) we provide a resolution correction that can be applied to emulated results as a post-processing step in order to drastically reduce systematic biases on small scales due to residual resolution effects in the simulations. We find that the inclusion of the dynamical dark energy parameter $w_a$ significantly increases the complexity and expense of creating the emulator. The high fidelity of EuclidEmulator2 is tested in various comparisons against N-body simulations as well as alternative fast predictors like Halofit, HMCode and CosmicEmu. A blind test is successfully performed against the Euclid Flagship v2.0 simulation. Nonlinear correction factors emulated with EuclidEmulator2 are accurate at the level of 1% or better for 0.01 $h$/Mpc $\leq k \leq$ 10 $h$/Mpc and $z\leq3$ compared to high-resolution dark matter only simulations. EuclidEmulator2 is publicly available at https://github.com/miknab/EuclidEmulator2 .

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arXiv2020

Euclid preparation: VIII. The Complete Calibration of the Colour-Redshift Relation survey: VLT/KMOS observations and data release

The Complete Calibration of the Colour-Redshift Relation survey (C3R2) is a spectroscopic effort involving ESO and Keck facilities designed to empirically calibrate the galaxy colour-redshift relation - P(z|C) to the Euclid depth (i_AB=24.5) and is intimately linked to upcoming Stage IV dark energy missions based on weak lensing cosmology. The aim is to build a spectroscopic calibration sample that is as representative as possible of the galaxies of the Euclid weak lensing sample. In order to minimise the number of spectroscopic observations to fill the gaps in current knowledge of the P(z|C), self-organising map (SOM) representations of the galaxy colour space have been constructed. Here we present the first results of an ESO@ VLT Large Programme approved in the context of C3R2, which makes use of the two VLT optical and near-infrared multi-object spectrographs, FORS2 and KMOS. This paper focuses on high-quality spectroscopic redshifts of high-z galaxies observed with the KMOS spectrograph in the H- and K-bands. A total of 424 highly-reliable z are measured in the 1.3<=z<=2.5 range, with total success rates of 60.7% in the H-band and 32.8% in the K-band. The newly determined z fill 55% of high and 35% of lower priority empty SOM grid cells. We measured Halpha fluxes in a 1."2 radius aperture from the spectra of the spectroscopically confirmed galaxies and converted them into star formation rates. In addition, we performed an SED fitting analysis on the same sample in order to derive stellar masses, E(B-V), total magnitudes, and SFRs. We combine the results obtained from the spectra with those derived via SED fitting, and we show that the spectroscopic failures come from either weakly star-forming galaxies (at z<1.7, i.e. in the H-band) or low S/N spectra (in the K-band) of z>2 galaxies.

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arXiv2019

Euclid preparation: V. Predicted yield of redshift 7<z<9 quasars from the wide survey

We provide predictions of the yield of $7 8$ may be selected from Euclid $OYJH$ photometry alone, but selection over the redshift interval $7 7.5$ should be found in the DR1 data release, expected in 2024. It will be possible to determine the bright-end slope of the QLF, $7<z<8$, $M_{1450}<-25$, using 8m class telescopes to confirm candidates, but follow-up with JWST or E-ELT will be required to measure the faint-end slope. Contamination of the candidate lists is predicted to be modest even at $J_{AB}\sim23$. The precision with which $k$ can be determined over $7<z<8$ depends on the value of $k$, but assuming $k=-0.72$ it can be measured to a 1 sigma uncertainty of 0.07.

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arXiv2019

Euclid preparation: VI. Verifying the Performance of Cosmic Shear Experiments

Our aim is to quantify the impact of systematic effects on the inference of cosmological parameters from cosmic shear. We present an end-to-end approach that introduces sources of bias in a modelled weak lensing survey on a galaxy-by-galaxy level. Residual biases are propagated through a pipeline from galaxy properties (one end) through to cosmic shear power spectra and cosmological parameter estimates (the other end), to quantify how imperfect knowledge of the pipeline changes the maximum likelihood values of dark energy parameters. We quantify the impact of an imperfect correction for charge transfer inefficiency (CTI) and modelling uncertainties of the point spread function (PSF) for Euclid, and find that the biases introduced can be corrected to acceptable levels.

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