arXiv subjects

C. Constantinescu

Publications and source records attributed to C. Constantinescu.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2020

On distributional and asymptotic results for exponential functional of renewal -- reward processes describing risk models

Inspired by the double-debt problem in Japan where the mortgagor has to pay the remaining loan even if their house was destroyed by a catastrophic event, we model the lender's cash flow, by an exponential functional of a renewal-reward process. We propose an insurance add-on to the loan repayments and analyse the asymptotic behavior of the distribution of the first hitting time, which represents the probability of full repayment. We show that the finite-time probability of full loan repayment converges exponentially fast to the infinite-time one. In a few concrete scenarios, we calculate the exact form of the infinite-time probability and the corresponding premiums.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

COVID-19 in a social reinsurance framework: Forewarned is forearmed

The crisis caused by COVID-19 revealed the global unpreparedness to handle the impact of a pandemic. In this paper, we present a statistical analysis of the data related to the COVID-19 outbreak in China, specifically the infection speed, death and fatality rates in Hubei province. By fitting distributions of these quantities we design a parametric reinsurance contract whose trigger and cap are based on the probability distributions of the infection speed, death and fatality rates. In particular, fitting the distribution for the infection speed and death rates we provide a measure of the effectiveness of a state's action during an epidemic, and propose a reinsurance contract as a supplement to a state's social insurance to alleviate financial costs.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

First passage times over stochastic boundaries for subdiffusive processes

Let $\mathbb{X}=(\mathbb{X}_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be the subdiffusive process defined, for any $t\geq 0$, by $ \mathbb{X}_t = X_{\ell_t}$ where $X=(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ is a Lévy process and $\ell_t=\inf \{s>0;\: \mathcal{K}_s>t \}$ with $\mathcal{K}=(\mathcal{K}_t)_{t\geq 0}$ a subordinator independent of $X$. We start by developing a composite Wiener-Hopf factorization to characterize the law of the pair $(\mathbb{T}_a^{(\mathcal{b})}, (\mathbb{X} - \mathcal{b})_{\mathbb{T}_a^{(\mathcal{b})}})$ where \begin{equation*} \mathbb{T}_a^{(\mathcal{b})} = \inf \{t>0;\: \mathbb{X}_t > a+ \mathcal{b}_t \} \end{equation*} with $a \in \mathbb{R}$ and $\mathcal{b}=(\mathcal{b}_t)_{t\geq 0}$ a (possibly degenerate) subordinator independent of $X$ and $\mathcal{K}$. We proceed by providing a detailed analysis of the cases where either $\mathcal{K}$ is a stable subordinator or $X$ is spectrally negative. Our proofs hinge on a variety of techniques including excursion theory, change of measure, asymptotic analysis and on establishing a link between subdiffusive processes and a subclass of semi-regenerative processes. In particular, we show that the variable $\mathbb{T}_a^{(\mathcal{b})}$ has the same law as the first passage time of a semi-regenerative process of Lévy type, a terminology that we introduce to mean that this process satisfies the Markov property of Lévy processes for stopping times whose graph is included in the associated regeneration set.

math.PR↗