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C. Emre Koksal

Publications and source records attributed to C. Emre Koksal.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Physics of Information Geometry - Part II: Small-Step Active Inference on the Probability Simplex

This paper is the second in a two-part investigation of the physics of information geometry. While Part I develops a physical foundation for distributional motion on the probability simplex, the present paper studies how that framework manifests in active inference. The treatment is fully self-contained and does not require familiarity with Part I. We focus in particular on active inference through small distributional steps and the geometric structure induced by such local motion. Starting from an initial distribution, an agent evolves its belief state toward a final target distribution through a sequence of constrained updates. We define a relative free energy functional with respect to the preferred distribution and extend it to a relative potential energy analogous to the Helmholtz/Gibbs free-energy decomposition. The evolution is subject to a per-step kinetic constraint expressed through the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between consecutive distributions, which serves as a discrete kinetic energy on the probability simplex. Using the information-geometric Pythagorean theorem on KL balls, we show that sufficiently small local moves dominate large direct jumps, and that greedy maximization of free-energy reduction is globally optimal under the kinetic constraint. This leads to a sequential variational principle in which the optimal trajectory minimizes the associated Lagrangian of the optimization problem. Similar to classical mechanics, the Lagrangian takes on the form as the difference between the kinetic and potential terms, establishing a least-action principle for distributional motion on the simplex. The resulting optimal update admits a closed form as an exponentially tilted version of the current distribution toward the preferred distribution, parametrized by an inverse-temperature-like multiplier. We further extend the framework to incorporate state-dependent geodesic...

cs.IT↗

Physics of Information Geometry - Part I: Principle of Least Action on the Probability Simplex

We develop a least-action framework for describing how a probability distribution can evolve from an equilibrium state to a prescribed nonequilibrium state under constrained incremental changes. Taking a Gibbs distribution as the equilibrium reference, the framework gives a direct physical meaning to the geometry of the probability simplex: distance from equilibrium corresponds to nonequilibrium free energy, while changes between successive distributions carry an informational kinetic cost. The Pythagorean structure of relative entropy then provides the central insight of the work. It shows that intermediate distributions chosen via sequential information projections can reduce the kinetic cost of large transitions and establishes an energy-conservation-like relation between the kinetic expenditure along a path and the free energy accumulated in reaching the target distribution. Motivated by this geometry, we construct a greedy least-action path through successive information projections, obtain a closed-form characterization of each projection through the Lambert W function, and establish a finite-step performance guarantee. We further show that state-dependent costs can be incorporated naturally by reshaping the underlying Gibbs reference, providing a thermodynamic interpretation of path penalties as modifications of the effective energy landscape. Together, these results provide a unified view of distributional evolution through least action, information geometry, and nonequilibrium thermodynamics.

cs.IT↗

When Mean Age Is Not Enough: Distribution-Aware Scheduling for Networked LQR Control

Age of Information (AoI) has become a central metric for the design of wireless update systems, especially in applications where fresh measurements support tracking, estimation, and control. Despite its popularity, the use of mean AoI or peak AoI as a surrogate for closed-loop performance is often motivated by intuition rather than by a control-theoretic derivation. This paper examines whether minimizing the mean AoI is in fact optimal for networked control systems. For scalar linear time-invariant systems with delayed intermittent updates, we show that, under state-independent scheduling policies, the infinite-horizon LQR tracking problem reduces to an optimization over the distribution of inter-scheduling intervals. The resulting objective depends on higher-order statistical moments, and in unstable or correlated regimes on exponential moments, of the inter-scheduling process rather than only on its mean. Consequently, policies with identical mean AoI can induce substantially different tracking costs. We further extend the analysis to disturbances with exponentially decaying autocorrelation and derive equivalent cost formulations that expose the role of the full interval distribution. Finally, we evaluate the theory using real vehicle trajectories from the NGSIM US-101 dataset. The empirical results match the predicted performance trends, demonstrating that mean AoI alone is insufficient for control-oriented network design.

eess.SY↗

Separation is Optimal for LQR under Intermittent Feedback

We study finite-horizon linear-quadratic regulation of a scalar linear system with intermittent state feedback under an average communication-rate constraint. In this setting, the scheduling policy and controller are generally coupled through the dual effect: transmission decisions shape future estimation errors, while control actions influence the information available for scheduling. Existing treatments often recover tractability by restricting attention to symmetric scheduling policies, but the optimality of this restriction has remained unclear. We show that, for i.i.d. zero-mean disturbances, symmetric policies are optimal. Consequently, the communication-constrained LQR problem admits a separation structure. The optimal controller is a linear feedback law independent of the scheduling policy, while the optimal scheduler is obtained from a dynamic program. We further show that the optimal scheduling rule is a symmetric threshold policy in the accumulated disturbance since the most recent update.

math.OC↗

Belief-Space Control for Personalized Cancer Treatment via Active Inference

Cancer treatment is at the core a sequential decision-making problem with partial observability, latent patient heterogeneity, and explicit constraints on the budget for medical measurements. Unlike standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches that control state trajectories, cancer treatments permanently modify patients' transition dynamics, changing how states evolve over time. We model cancer treatment as a belief-space planning problem using active inference, deriving an expected free-energy objective that unifies goal-directed control and information acquisition under measurement budgets without. We implement this framework using real clinical cancer data from the AACR Project GENIE Biopharma Collaborative dataset. Results on clinical data demonstrate a simultaneous patient categorization and high treatment efficacy, under real measurement and treatment constraints.

cs.AI↗

A Queueing-Theoretic Framework for Dynamic Attack Surfaces: Data-Integrated Risk Analysis and Adaptive Defense

We develop a queueing-theoretic framework to model the temporal evolution of cyber-attack surfaces, where the number of active vulnerabilities is represented as the backlog of a queue. Vulnerabilities arrive as they are discovered or created, and leave the system when they are patched or successfully exploited. Building on this model, we study how automation affects attack and defense dynamics by introducing an AI amplification factor that scales arrival, exploit, and patching rates. Our analysis shows that even symmetric automation can increase the rate of successful exploits. We validate the model using vulnerability data collected from an open source software supply chain and show that it closely matches real-world attack surface dynamics. Empirical results reveal heavy-tailed patching times, which we prove induce long-range dependence in vulnerability backlog and help explain persistent cyber risk. Utilizing our queueing abstraction for the attack surface, we develop a systematic approach for cyber risk mitigation. We formulate the dynamic defense problem as a constrained Markov decision process with resource-budget and switching-cost constraints, and develop a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm that achieves provably near-optimal regret. Numerical experiments validate the approach and demonstrate that our adaptive RL-based defense policies significantly reduce successful exploits and mitigate heavy-tail queue events. Using trace-driven experiments on the ARVO dataset, we show that the proposed RL-based defense policy reduces the average number of active vulnerabilities in a software supply chain by over 90% compared to existing defense practices, without increasing the overall maintenance budget. Our results allow defenders to quantify cumulative exposure risk under long-range dependent attack dynamics and to design adaptive defense strategies with provable efficiency.

cs.CR↗

Organizational Security Resource Estimation via Vulnerability Queueing

We provide an approach that closely estimates an organization's cyber resources directly from vulnerability timestamps, using a non-stationary queueing framework. Traditional attack-surface metrics operate on static snapshots, ignoring the core attack-defense dynamics within information systems, which exhibit bursty, heavy-tailed, and capacity-constrained behavior. Our approach to modeling such dynamics is based on a queueing abstraction of attack surfaces. We utilize a segmentation method to identify piecewise-stationary regimes via Gaussian mixture modeling (GMM) of queue length distributions. We fit segment-specific arrival, service, and resource parameters through the minimization of Kullback--Leibler divergence (KL) between the empirical and estimated distributions. Applied to both large-scale software supply chain data and multi-year private logistics enterprise cyber-ticket workflows, the model estimates organizational resources, measured in the time-varying active personnel and output rate per personnel, solely from bug report and fix timings for software supply chains, and discovery and patch timestamps in the enterprise setting. Our results provide 91--96\% accuracy in resource estimation, making the dynamic queueing framework a compelling approach for understanding attack surface dynamics. Further, our framework exposes resource bottlenecks, establishing a foundation for predictive workforce planning, patch-race modeling, and proactive cyber-risk management.

cs.CR↗

Bi-Level Online Provisioning and Scheduling with Switching Costs and Cross-Level Constraints

We study a bi-level online provisioning and scheduling problem motivated by network resource allocation, where provisioning decisions are made at a slow time scale while queue-/state-dependent scheduling is performed at a fast time scale. We model this two-time-scale interaction using an upper-level online convex optimization (OCO) problem and a lower-level constrained Markov decision process (CMDP). Existing OCO typically assumes stateless decisions and thus cannot capture MDP network dynamics such as queue evolution. Meanwhile, CMDP algorithms typically assume a fixed constraint threshold, whereas in provisioning-and-scheduling systems, the threshold varies with online budget decisions. To address these gaps, we study bi-level OCO-CMDP learning under switching costs (budget reprovisioning/system reconfiguration) and cross-level constraints that couple budgets to scheduling decisions. Our new algorithm solves this learning problem via several non-trivial developments, including a carefully designed dual feedback that returns the budget multiplier as sensitivity information for the upper-level update and a lower level that solves a budget-adaptive safe exploration problem via an extended occupancy-measure linear program. We establish near-optimal regret and high-probability satisfaction of the cross-level constraints.

cs.LG↗

Near Delay-Optimal Scheduling of Batch Jobs in Multi-Server Systems

We study a class of scheduling problems, where each job is divided into a batch of unit-size tasks and these tasks can be executed in parallel on multiple servers with New-Better-than-Used (NBU) service time distributions. While many delay optimality results are available for single-server queueing systems, generalizing these results to the multi-server case has been challenging. This motivated us to investigate near delay-optimal scheduling of batch jobs in multi-server queueing systems. We consider three lowcomplexity scheduling policies: the Fewest Unassigned Tasks first (FUT) policy, the Earliest Due Date first (EDD) policy, and the First-Come, First-Served (FCFS) policy. We prove that for arbitrary number, batch sizes, arrival times, and due times of the jobs, these scheduling policies are near delay-optimal in stochastic ordering for minimizing three classes of delay metrics among all causal and non-preemptive policies. In particular, the FUT policy is within a constant additive delay gap from the optimum for minimizing the mean average delay, and the FCFS policy within twice of the optimum for minimizing the mean maximum delay and the mean p-norm of delay. The key proof tools are several novel samplepath orderings, which can be used to compare the sample-path delay of different policies in a near-optimal sense.

cs.NI↗

Source Coding Based Millimeter-Wave Channel Estimation with Deep Learning Based Decoding

The speed at which millimeter-Wave (mmWave) channel estimation can be carried out is critical for the adoption of mmWave technologies. This is particularly crucial because mmWave transceivers are equipped with large antenna arrays to combat severe path losses, which consequently creates large channel matrices, whose estimation may incur significant overhead. This paper focuses on the mmWave channel estimation problem. Our objective is to reduce the number of measurements required to reliably estimate the channel. Specifically, channel estimation is posed as a "source compression" problem in which measurements mimic an encoded (compressed) version of the channel. Decoding the observed measurements, a task which is traditionally computationally intensive, is performed using a deep-learning-based approach, facilitating a high-performance channel discovery. Our solution not only outperforms state-of-the-art compressed sensing methods, but it also determines the lower bound on the number of measurements required for reliable channel discovery.

cs.IT↗

Quickest Detection over Sensor Networks with Unknown Post-Change Distribution

We propose a quickest change detection problem over sensor networks where both the subset of sensors undergoing a change and the local post-change distributions are unknown. Each sensor in the network observes a local discrete time random process over a finite alphabet. Initially, the observations are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) with known pre-change distributions independent from other sensors. At a fixed but unknown change point, a fixed but unknown subset of the sensors undergo a change and start observing samples from an unknown distribution. We assume the change can be quantified using concave (or convex) local statistics over the space of distributions. We propose an asymptotically optimal and computationally tractable stopping time for Lorden's criterion. Under this scenario, our proposed method uses a concave global cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic at the fusion center and suppresses the most likely false alarms using information projection. Finally, we show some numerical results of the simulation of our algorithm for the problem described.

eess.SP↗

Achieving Positive Covert Capacity over MIMO AWGN Channels

We consider covert communication, i.e., hiding the presence of communication from an adversary for multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channels. We characterize the maximum covert coding rate under a variety of settings, including different regimes where either the number of transmit antennas or the blocklength is scaled up. We show that a non-zero covert capacity can be achieved in the massive MIMO regime in which the number of transmit antennas scales up but under specific conditions. Under such conditions, we show that the covert capacity of MIMO AWGN channels converges the capacity of MIMO AWGN channels. Furthermore, we derive the order-optimal scaling of the number of covert bits in the regime where the covert capacity is zero. We provide an insightful comparative analysis of different cases in which secrecy and energy-undetectability constraints are imposed separately or jointly.

eess.SP↗

How Long to Estimate Sparse MIMO Channels

Large MIMO transceivers are integral components of next-generation wireless networks. However, for such systems to be practical, their channel estimation process needs to be fast and reliable. Although several solutions for fast estimation of sparse channels do exist, there is still a gap in understanding the fundamental limits governing this problem. Specifically, we need to better understand the lower bound on the number of measurements under which accurate channel estimates can be obtained. This work bridges that knowledge gap by deriving a tight asymptotic lower bound on the number of measurements. This not only helps develop a better understanding for the sparse MIMO channel estimation problem, but it also provides a benchmark for evaluating current and future solutions.

cs.IT↗

Separating an Outlier from a Change

We study the change detection problem with an unknown post-change distribution. Under this constraint, the unknown change in the distribution of observations may occur in many ways without much structure on the observations, whereas, before the change point, a false alarm (outlier) is highly structured, following a particular sample path. We first characterize these likely events for the deviation and propose a method to test the empirical distribution, relative to the most likely way for it to occur as an outlier. We benchmark our method with finite moving average (FMA) and generalized likelihood ratio tests (GLRT) under 4 different performance criteria including the run time time complexity. Finally, we apply our method on economic market indicators and climate data. Our method successfully captures the regime shifts during times of historical significance for the markets and identifies the current climate change phenomenon to be a highly likely regime shift rather than a random event.

eess.SP↗

Fast Analog Beam Tracking in Phased Antenna Arrays: Theory and Performance

The directionality of millimeter-wave (mmWave) communications introduces a significant challenge in serving fast-rotating/moving terminals, e.g., mobile AR/VR, high-speed vehicles, trains, UAVs.This challenge is exacerbated in mmWave systems using analog beamforming, because of the inherent non-convexity in the analog beam tracking problem. In this paper, we obtain the Cramér-Rao lower bound (CRLB) of beam tracking and optimize the analog beamforming vectors to get the minimum CRLB. Then, we develop a low complexity analog beam tracking algorithm that simultaneously optimizes the analog beamforming vector and the estimate of beam direction. Finally, by establishing a new basic theory, we provide the theoretical convergence analysis of the proposed analog beam tracking algorithm, which proves that the minimum CRLB of the MSE is achievable with high probability. Our simulations show that this algorithm can achieve faster tracking speed, higher tracking accuracy and higher data rate than several state-of-the-art algorithms. The key analytical tools used in our algorithm design are stochastic approximation and recursive estimation with a control parameter.

cs.IT↗

Beam Discovery Using Linear Block Codes for Millimeter Wave Communication Networks

The surge in mobile broadband data demands is expected to surpass the available spectrum capacity below $6$ GHz. This expectation has prompted the exploration of millimeter wave (mm-wave) frequency bands as a candidate technology for next generation wireless networks. However, numerous challenges to deploying mm-wave communication systems, including channel estimation, need to be met before practical deployments are possible. This work addresses the mm-wave channel estimation problem and treats it as a beam discovery problem in which locating beams with strong path reflectors is analogous to locating errors in linear block codes. We show that a significantly small number of measurements (compared to the original dimensions of the channel matrix) is sufficient to reliably estimate the channel. We also show that this can be achieved using a simple and energy-efficient transceiver architecture.

cs.IT↗

MIMO with Energy Recycling

We consider a Multiple Input Single Output (MISO) point-to-point communication system in which the transmitter is designed such that, each antenna can transmit information or harvest energy at any given point in time. We evaluate the achievable rate by such an energy-recycling MISO system under an average transmission power constraint. Our achievable scheme carefully switches the mode of the antennas between transmission and wireless harvesting, where most of the harvesting happens from the neighboring antennas' transmissions, i.e., recycling. We show that, with recycling, it is possible to exceed the capacity of the classical non-harvesting counterpart. As the complexity of the achievable algorithm is exponential with the number of antennas, we also provide an almost linear algorithm that has a minimal degradation in achievable rate. To address the major questions on the capability of recycling and the impacts of antenna coupling, we also develop a hardware setup and experimental results for a 4-antenna transmitter, based on a uniform linear array (ULA). We demonstrate that the loss in the rate due to antenna coupling can be made negligible with sufficient antenna spacing and provide hardware measurements for the power recycled from the transmitting antennas and the power received at the target receiver, taken simultaneously. We provide refined performance measurement results, based on our actual measurements.

cs.IT↗

Fundamental Limits of Covert Communication over MIMO AWGN Channel

Fundamental limits of covert communication have been studied in literature for different models of scalar channels. It was shown that, over $n$ independent channel uses, $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{n})$ bits can transmitted reliably over a public channel while achieving an arbitrarily low probability of detection (LPD) by other stations. This result is well known as square-root law and even to achieve this diminishing rate of covert communication, some form of shared secret is needed between the transmitter and the receiver. In this paper, we establish the limits of LPD communication over the MIMO AWGN channel. We define the notion of $ε$-probability of detection ($ε$-PD) and provide a formulation to evaluate the maximum achievable rate under the $ε$-PD constraint. We first show that the capacity-achieving input distribution is the zero-mean Gaussian distribution. Then, assuming channel state information (CSI) on only the main channel at the transmitter, we derive the optimal input covariance matrix, hence, establishing the $ε$-PD capacity. We evaluate $ε$-PD rates in the limiting regimes for the number of channel uses (asymptotic block length) and the number of antennas (massive MIMO). We show that, in the asymptotic block-length regime, while the SRL still holds for the MIMO AWGN, the number of bits that can be transmitted covertly scales exponentially with the number of transmitting antennas. Further, we derive the $ε$-PD capacity \textit{with no shared secret}. For that scenario, in the massive MIMO limit, higher covert rate up to the non LPD constrained capacity still can be achieved, yet, with much slower scaling compared to the scenario with shared secret. The practical implication of our result is that, MIMO has the potential to provide a substantial increase in the file sizes that can be covertly communicated subject to a reasonably low delay.

cs.IT↗