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C. M. Baugh

Publications and source records attributed to C. M. Baugh.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
arXiv2010

Grand unification of AGN activity in the LambdaCDM cosmology

We track the co-evolution of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and their host galaxies. The calculation is embedded in the GALFORM semi-analytical model which simulates the formation and evolution of galaxies in a cold dark matter (CDM) universe. During the evolution of the host galaxy, hot and cold gas are added to the SMBH by flows triggered by halo gas cooling, disc instabilities and galaxy mergers. This builds up the mass and spin of the BH, and the resulting accretion power regulates the gas cooling and subsequent star formation. The accretion flow is assumed to form a geometrically thin cool disc when the accretion rate exceeds 0.01\dot{M}_Edd, and a geometrically thick, radiatively inefficient hot flow when the accretion rate falls below this value. The resulting quasar optical luminosity function matches observations very well, and the mass of the SMBH correlates with the mass of the galaxy bulge as observed. The BH spin distribution depends strongly on whether the gas in any given accretion episode remains in the same plane (prolonged accretion) or whether, due to self-gravity, it fragments into multiple, randomly aligned accretion episodes (chaotic accretion). In the chaotic accretion model there is a clear correlation of spin with SMBH mass. Massive BHs (M>5\times10^8\Msun) are hosted by giant elliptical galaxies and are rapidly spinning, while lower mass BHs are hosted in spiral galaxies and have much lower spin. Using the Blandford-Znajek mechanism for jet production to calculate the jet power, our model is able to reproduce the radio loudness of radio galaxies, LINERS and Seyferts. This is the first confirmation that a CDM galaxy formation model can reproduce the observed phenomenology of AGN.

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arXiv2010

The Parameter Space of Galaxy Formation

Semi-analytic models are a powerful tool for studying the formation of galaxies. However, these models inevitably involve a significant number of poorly constrained parameters that must be adjusted to provide an acceptable match to the observed universe. In this paper, we set out to quantify the degree to which observational data-sets can constrain the model parameters. By revealing degeneracies in the parameter space we can hope to better understand the key physical processes probed by the data. We use novel mathematical techniques to explore the parameter space of the GALFORM semi-analytic model. We base our investigation on the Bower et al. 2006 version of GALFORM, adopting the same methodology of selecting model parameters based on an acceptable match to the local bJ and K luminosity functions. The model contains 16 parameters that are poorly constrained, and we investigate this parameter space using the Model Emulator technique, constructing a Bayesian approximation to the GALFORM model that can be rapidly evaluated at any point in parameter space. By combining successive waves of emulation, we show that only 0.26% of the initial volume is of interest for further exploration. However, within this region we show that the Bower et al. 2006 model is only one choice from an extended sub-space of model parameters that can provide equally acceptable fits. We explore the geometry of this region and begin to explore the physical connections between parameters that are exposed by this analysis. We also consider the impact of adding additional observational data to further constrain the parameter space.

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arXiv2010

Extremely Red Objects in a hierarchical universe

We analyse whether hierarchical formation models based on Lambda cold dark matter cosmology can produce enough massive red galaxies to match observations. For this purpose, we compare with observations the predictions from two published models for the abundance and redshift distribution of Extremely Red Objects (EROs), which are red, massive galaxies observed at z >= 1. One of the models invokes a "superwind" to regulate star formation in massive haloes and the other suppresses cooling through "radio-mode" AGN feedback. The first one underestimates the number counts of EROs by an order of magnitude, whereas the radio-mode AGN feedback model gives excellent agreement with the number counts of EROs and redshift distribution of K-selected galaxies. This study highlights the need to consider AGN feedback in order to understand the formation and evolution of massive galaxies at z >= 1.

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arXiv2010

Massive, red galaxies in a hierarchical universe I. Counts of Extremely Red Objects and basic properties

We present predictions for the abundance and nature of Extremely Red Objects (EROs) in the Lambda cold dark matter model. EROs are red, massive galaxies observed at z>= 1 and their numbers and properties pose a challenge to hierarchical galaxy formation models. We compare the predictions from two published models, one of which invokes a "superwind" to regulate star formation in massive haloes and the other which suppresses gas cooling in haloes through "radio-mode" AGN feedback. The superwind model underestimates the number counts of EROs by an order of magnitude, whereas the radio-mode AGN feedback model gives excellent agreement with the number counts and redshift distribution of EROs. In the AGN feedback model the ERO population is dominated by old, passively evolving galaxies, whereas observations favour an equal split between old galaxies and dusty starbursts. Also, the model predicts a more extended redshift distribution of passive galaxies than is observed. These comparisons suggest that star formation may be quenched too efficiently in this model.

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arXiv2010

The spatial distribution of cold gas in hierarchical galaxy formation models

The distribution of cold gas in dark matter haloes is driven by key processes in galaxy formation: gas cooling, galaxy mergers, star formation and reheating of gas by supernovae. We compare the predictions of four different galaxy formation models for the spatial distribution of cold gas. We find that satellite galaxies make little contribution to the abundance or clustering strength of cold gas selected samples, and are far less important than they are in optically selected samples. The halo occupation distribution function of present-day central galaxies with cold gas mass > 10^9 h^-1 Msun is peaked around a halo mass of ~ 10^11 h^-1 Msun, a scale that is set by the AGN suppression of gas cooling. The model predictions for the projected correlation function are in good agreement with measurements from the HI Parkes All-Sky Survey. We compare the effective volume of possible surveys with the Square Kilometre Array with those expected for a redshift survey in the near-infrared. Future redshift surveys using neutral hydrogen emission will be competitive with the most ambitious spectroscopic surveys planned in the near-infrared.

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arXiv2010

How BAO measurements can fail to detect quintessence

We model the nonlinear growth of cosmic structure in different dark energy models, using large volume N-body simulations. We consider a range of quintessence models which feature both rapidly and slowly varying dark energy equations of state, and compare the growth of structure to that in a universe with a cosmological constant. The adoption of a quintessence model changes the expansion history of the universe, the form of the linear theory power spectrum and can alter key observables, such as the horizon scale and the distance to last scattering. The difference in structure formation can be explained to first order by the difference in growth factor at a given epoch; this scaling also accounts for the nonlinear growth at the 15% level. We find that quintessence models which feature late $(z<2)$, rapid transitions towards $w=-1$ in the equation of state, can have identical baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) peak positions to those in $Λ$CDM, despite being very different from $Λ$CDM both today and at high redshifts $(z \sim 1000)$. We find that a second class of models which feature non-negligible amounts of dark energy at early times cannot be distinguished from $Λ$CDM using measurements of the mass function or the BAO. These results highlight the need to accurately model quintessence dark energy in N-body simulations when testing cosmological probes of dynamical dark energy.

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arXiv2010

The Redshift Evolution of the Mass Function of Cold Gas in Hierarchical Galaxy Formation Models

(Abridged) Accurately predicting how the cosmic abundance of neutral hydrogen evolves with redshift is a challenging problem facing modellers of galaxy formation. We investigate the predictions of four currently favoured semi-analytical galaxy formation models applied to the Millennium simulation for the mass function of cold neutral gas (atomic and molecular) in galaxies as a function of redshift, and we use these predictions to construct number counts for the next generation of all-sky neutral atomic hydrogen (HI) surveys. Despite the different implementations of the physical ingredients of galaxy formation, we find that the model predictions are broadly consistent with one another; the key differences reflect how the models treat AGN feedback and how the timescale for star formation evolves with redshift. The models produce mass functions of cold gas in galaxies that are generally in good agreement with HI surveys at $z$=0. Interestingly we find that these mass functions do not evolve significantly with redshift. Adopting a simple conversion factor for cold gas mass to HI mass that we apply to all galaxies at all redshifts, we derive mass functions of HI in galaxies from the predicted mass functions of cold gas, which we use to predict the number counts of sources likely to be detected by HI surveys on next generation radio telescopes such as the Square Kilometre Array and its pathfinders. We show also how adopting a conversion factor for cold gas mass to HI mass that varies from galaxy to galaxy impacts on number counts. In addition, we examine how the typical angular sizes of galaxies vary with redshift. Taken together, these results make clear that forthcoming HI surveys will provide important and powerful tests of theoretical galaxy formation models.

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arXiv2010

Predictions for Herschel from LambdaCDM: unveiling the cosmic star formation history

We use a model for the evolution of galaxies in the far-IR based on the LambdaCDM cosmology to make detailed predictions for upcoming cosmological surveys with the Herschel Space Observatory. We use the combined GALFORM semi-analytical galaxy formation model and GRASIL spectrophotometric code to compute galaxy SEDs including the reprocessing of radiation by dust. The model, which is the same as that in Baugh et al. (2005), assumes two different IMFs: a normal solar neighbourhood IMF for quiescent star formation in disks, and a very top-heavy IMF in starbursts triggered by galaxy mergers. We have shown previously that the top-heavy IMF appears necessary to explain the number counts and redshifts of faint sub-mm galaxies. In this paper, we present predictions for galaxy luminosity functions, number counts and redshift distributions in the Herschel imaging bands. We find that source confusion will be a serious problem in the deepest planned surveys. We also show predictions for physical properties such as star formation rates and stellar, gas and halo masses, together with fluxes at other wavelengths (from the far-UV to the radio) relevant for multi-wavelength follow-up observations. We investigate what fraction of the total IR emission from dust and of the high-mass star formation over the history of the Universe should be resolved by planned surveys with Herschel, and find a fraction ~30-50%, depending on confusion. Finally, we show that galaxies in Herschel surveys should be significantly clustered.

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arXiv2009

Empirical H-alpha emitter count predictions for dark energy surveys

Future galaxy redshift surveys aim to measure cosmological quantities from the galaxy power spectrum. A prime example is the detection of baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAOs), providing a standard ruler to measure the dark energy equation of state, w(z), to high precision. The strongest practical limitation for these experiments is how quickly accurate redshifts can be measured for sufficient galaxies to map the large-scale structure. A promising strategy is to target emission-line (i.e. star-forming) galaxies at high-redshift (z~0.5-2); not only is the space density of this population increasing out to z~2, but also emission-lines provide an efficient method of redshift determination. Motivated by the prospect of future dark energy surveys targeting H-alpha emitters at near-infrared wavelengths (i.e. z>0.5), we use the latest empirical data to model the evolution of the H-alpha luminosity function out to z~2, and thus provide predictions for the abundance of H-alpha emitters for practical limiting fluxes. We caution that the estimates presented in this work must be tempered by an efficiency factor, epsilon, giving the redshift success rate from these potential targets. For a range of practical efficiencies and limiting fluxes, we provide an estimate of nP_{0.2}, where n is the 3D galaxy number density and P_{0.2} is the galaxy power spectrum evaluated at k=0.2h/Mpc. Ideal surveys must provide nP_{0.2}>1 in order to balance shot-noise and cosmic variance errors. We show that a realistic emission-line survey (epsilon=0.5) could achieve nP_{0.2}=1 out to z~1.5 with a limiting flux of 10^{-16} erg/s/cm^{-2}. If the limiting flux is a factor 5 brighter, then this goal can only be achieved out to z~0.5, highlighting the importance of survey depth and efficiency in cosmological redshift surveys.

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arXiv2009

Cosmological parameter constraints from SDSS luminous red galaxies: a new treatment of large-scale clustering

We apply a new model for the spherically averaged correlation function at large pair separations to the measurement of the clustering of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) made from the SDSS by Cabre and Gaztanaga(2009). Our model takes into account the form of the BAO peak and the large scale shape of the correlation function. We perform a Monte Carlo Markov chain analysis for different combinations of datasets and for different parameter sets. When used in combination with a compilation of the latest CMB measurements, the LRG clustering and the latest supernovae results give constraints on cosmological parameters which are comparable and in remarkably good agreement, resolving the tension reported in some studies. The best fitting model in the context of a flat, Lambda-CDM cosmology is specified by Omega_m=0.261+-0.013, Omega_b=0.044+-0.001, n_s=0.96+-0.01, H_0=71.6+-1.2 km/s/Mpc and sigma_8=0.80+-0.02. If we allow the time-independent dark energy equation of state parameter to vary, we find results consistent with a cosmological constant at the 5% level using all data sets: w_DE=-0.97+-0.05. The large scale structure measurements by themselves can constrain the dark energy equation of state parameter to w_DE=-1.05+-0.15, independently of CMB or supernovae data. We do not find convincing evidence for an evolving equation of state. We provide a set of "extended distance priors" that contain the most relevant information from the CMB power spectrum and the shape of the LRG correlation function which can be used to constrain dark energy models and spatial curvature. Our model should provide an accurate description of the clustering even in much larger, forthcoming surveys, such as those planned with NASA's JDEM or ESA's Euclid mission.

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arXiv2009

Modelling the dusty universe I: Introducing the artificial neural network and first applications to luminosity and colour distributions

We introduce a new technique based on artificial neural networks which allows us to make accurate predictions for the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of large samples of galaxies, at wavelengths ranging from the far-ultra-violet to the sub-millimetre and radio. The neural net is trained to reproduce the SEDs predicted by a hybrid code comprised of the GALFORM semi-analytical model of galaxy formation, which predicts the full star formation and galaxy merger histories, and the GRASIL spectro-photometric code, which carries out a self-consistent calculation of the SED, including absorption and emission of radiation by dust. Using a small number of galaxy properties predicted by GALFORM, the method reproduces the luminosities of galaxies in the majority of cases to within 10% of those computed directly using GRASIL. The method performs best in the sub-mm and reasonably well in the mid-infrared and the far-ultra-violet. The luminosity error introduced by the method has negligible impact on predicted statistical distributions, such as luminosity functions or colour distributions of galaxies. We use the neural net to predict the overlap between galaxies selected in the rest-frame UV and in the observer-frame sub-mm at z=2. We find that around half of the galaxies with a 850um flux above 5 mJy should have optical magnitudes brighter than R_AB < 25 mag. However, only 1% of the galaxies selected in the rest-frame UV down to R_AB < 25 mag should have 850um fluxes brighter than 5 mJy. Our technique will allow the generation of wide-angle mock catalogues of galaxies selected at rest-frame UV or mid- and far-infrared wavelengths.

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arXiv2009

Testing the predictions of the cold dark matter model for the sizes, colours, morphologies and luminosities of galaxies with the SDSS

The huge size and uniformity of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey makes possible an exacting test of current models of galaxy formation. We compare the predictions of the GALFORM semi-analytical galaxy formation model for the luminosities, morphologies, colours and scale-lengths of local galaxies. GALFORM models the luminosity and size of the disk and bulge components of a galaxy, and so we can compute quantities which can be compared directly with SDSS observations, such as the Petrosian magnitude and the Sersic index. We test the predictions of two published models set in the cold dark matter cosmology: the Baugh et al. (2005) model, which assumes a top-heavy initial mass function (IMF) in starbursts and superwind feedback, and the Bower et al. (2006) model, which uses AGN feedback and a standard IMF. The Bower et al model better reproduces the overall shape of the luminosity function, the morphology-luminosity relation and the colour bimodality observed in the SDSS data, but gives a poor match to the size-luminosity relation. The \Baugh et al. model successfully predicts the size-luminosity relation for late-type galaxies. Both models fail to reproduce the sizes of bright early-type galaxies. These problems highlight the need to understand better both the role of feedback processes in determining galaxy sizes, in particular the treatment of the angular momentum of gas reheated by supernovae, and the sizes of the stellar spheroids formed by galaxy mergers and disk instabilities.

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arXiv2009

Modelling galaxy clustering: Is new physics needed in galaxy formation models?

The clustering amplitude of galaxies depends on their intrinsic luminosity. We compare the properties of publicly available galaxy formation models with clustering measurements from the two-degree field galaxy redshift survey. The model predictions show the same qualitative behaviour as the data but fail to match the observations at the level of accuracy at which current measurements can be made. We demonstrate that this is due to the model producing too many satellite galaxies in massive haloes. We implement simple models to describe two new processes, satellite-satellite mergers and the tidal dissolution of satellites to investigate their impact on the predicted clustering. We find that both processes need to be included in order to produce a model which matches the observations.

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arXiv2008

The clustering of Ly-alpha emitters in a LambdaCDM Universe

We combine a semi-analytical model of galaxy formation with a very large simulation which follows the growth of large scale structure in a LambdaCDM universe to predict the clustering of Ly-alpha emitters. We find that the clustering strength of Ly-alpha emitters has only a weak dependence on Ly-alpha luminosity but a strong dependence on redshift. With increasing redshift, Ly-alpha emitters trace progressively rarer, higher density regions of the universe. Due to the large volume of the simulation, over 100 times bigger than any previously used for this application, we can construct mock catalogues of Ly-alpha emitters and study the sample variance of current and forthcoming surveys. We find that the number and clustering of Ly-alpha emitters in our mock catalogues are in agreement with measurements from current surveys, but that there is a considerable scatter in these quantities. We argue that a proposed survey of emitters at z=8.8 should be extended significantly in solid angle to allow a robust measurement of Ly-alpha emitter clustering.

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arXiv2008

The Fate of Substructures in Cold Dark Matter Haloes

We use the Millennium Simulation, a large, high resolution N-body simulation of the evolution of structure in a LambdaCDM cosmology, to study the properties and fate of substructures within a large sample of dark matter haloes. We find that the subhalo mass function departs significantly from a power law at the high mass end. We also find that the radial and angular distributions of substructures depend on subhalo mass. In particular, high mass subhaloes tend to be less radially concentrated and to have angular distributions closer to the direction perpendicular to the spin of the host halo than their less massive counterparts. We find that mergers between subhaloes occur. These tend to be between substructures that were already dynamically associated before accretion into the main halo. For subhaloes larger than 0.001 times the mass of the host halo, it is more likely that the subhalo will merge with the central or main subhalo than with another subhalo larger than itself. For lower masses, subhalo-subhalo mergers become equally likely to mergers with the main subhalo. Our results have implications for the variation of galaxy properties with environment and for the treatment of mergers in galaxy formation models.

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arXiv2008

The assembly bias of dark matter haloes to higher orders

We use an extremely large volume ($2.4h^{-3}{\rm Gpc}^{3}$), high resolution N-body simulation to measure the higher order clustering of dark matter haloes as a function of mass and internal structure. As a result of the large simulation volume and the use of a novel ``cross-moment'' counts-in-cells technique which suppresses discreteness noise, we are able to measure the clustering of haloes corresponding to rarer peaks than was possible in previous studies; the rarest haloes for which we measure the variance are 100 times more clustered than the dark matter. We are able to extract, for the first time, halo bias parameters from linear up to fourth order. For all orders measured, we find that the bias parameters are a strong function of mass for haloes more massive than the characteristic mass $M_{*}$. Currently, no theoretical model is able to reproduce this mass dependence closely. We find that the bias parameters also depend on the internal structure of the halo up to fourth order. For haloes more massive than $M_{*}$, we find that the more concentrated haloes are more weakly clustered than the less concentrated ones. We see no dependence of clustering on concentration for haloes with masses $M<M_{*}$; this is contrary to the trend reported in the literature when segregating haloes by their formation time. Our results are insensitive to whether haloes are labelled by the total mass returned by the friends-of-friends group finder or by the mass of the most massive substructure. This implies that our conclusions are not an artefact of the particular choice of group finding algorithm. Our results will provide important input to theoretical models of galaxy clustering.

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arXiv2008

SPACE: the SPectroscopic All-sky Cosmic Explorer

We describe the scientific motivations, the mission concept and the instrumentation of SPACE, a class-M mission proposed for concept study at the first call of the ESA Cosmic-Vision 2015-2025 planning cycle. SPACE aims to produce the largest three-dimensional evolutionary map of the Universe over the past 10 billion years by taking near-IR spectra and measuring redshifts for more than half a billion galaxies at 0<z<2 down to AB~23 over 3πsr of the sky. In addition, SPACE will also target a smaller sky field, performing a deep spectroscopic survey of millions of galaxies to AB~26 and at 2<z<10+. These goals are unreachable with ground-based observations due to the ~500 times higher sky background. To achieve the main science objectives, SPACE will use a 1.5m diameter Ritchey-Chretien telescope equipped with a set of arrays of Digital Micro-mirror Devices (DMDs) covering a total field of view of 0.4 deg2, and will perform large-multiplexing multi-object spectroscopy (e.g. ~6000 targets per pointing) at a spectral resolution of R~400 as well as diffraction-limited imaging with continuous coverage from 0.8mum to 1.8mum.

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