arXiv subjects

C. Shankman

Publications and source records attributed to C. Shankman.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2018

OSSOS: X. How to use a Survey Simulator: Statistical Testing of Dynamical Models Against the Real Kuiper Belt

All surveys include observational biases, which makes it impossible to directly compare properties of discovered trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) with dynamical models. However, by carefully keeping track of survey pointings on the sky, detection limits, tracking fractions, and rate cuts, the biases from a survey can be modelled in Survey Simulator software. A Survey Simulator takes an intrinsic orbital model (from, for example, the output of a dynamical Kuiper belt emplacement simulation) and applies the survey biases, so that the biased simulated objects can be directly compared with real discoveries. This methodology has been used with great success in the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) and its predecessor surveys. In this chapter, we give four examples of ways to use the OSSOS Survey Simulator to gain knowledge about the true structure of the Kuiper Belt. We demonstrate how to statistically compare different dynamical model outputs with real TNO discoveries, how to quantify detection biases within a TNO population, how to measure intrinsic population sizes, and how to use upper limits from non-detections. We hope this will provide a framework for dynamical modellers to statistically test the validity of their models.

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arXiv2018

OSSOS. VIII. The Transition Between Two Size Distribution Slopes in the Scattering Disk

The scattering trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) can be measured to smaller sizes than any other distant small-body population. We use the largest sample yet obtained, 68 discoveries, primarily by the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS), to constrain the slope of its luminosity distribution, with sensitivity to much fainter absolute $H$ magnitudes than previous work. Using the analysis technique in Shankman et al. (2016), we confirm that a single slope for the $H$-distribution is not an accurate representation of the scattering TNOs and Centaurs, and that a break in the distribution is required, in support of previous conclusions. A bright-end slope of $α_b=0.9$ transitioning to a faint-end slope $α_f$ of 0.4-0.5 with a differential number contrast $c$ from 1 (a knee) to 10 (a divot) provides an acceptable match to our data. We find that break magnitudes $H_b$ of 7.7 and 8.3, values both previously suggested for dynamically hot Kuiper belt populations, are equally non-rejectable for a range of $α_f$ and $c$ in our statistical analysis. Our preferred divot $H$-distribution transitions to $α_f=0.5$ with a divot of contrast $c=3$ at $H_b=8.3$, while our preferred knee $H$-distribution transitions to $α_f=0.4$ at $H_b=7.7$. The intrinsic population of scattering TNOs required to match the OSSOS detections is $3\times10^6$ for $H_r<12$, and $9\times10^4$ for $H_r<8.66$ ($D\gtrsim100$~km), with Centaurs having an intrinsic population two orders of magnitude smaller.

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arXiv2016

Observational Signatures of a Massive Distant Planet on the Scattering Disk

The orbital element distribution of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with large pericenters has been suggested to be influenced by the presence of an undetected, large planet at >200 AU from the Sun. To find additional observables caused by this scenario, we here present the first detailed emplacement simulation in the presence of a massive ninth planet on the distant Kuiper Belt. We perform 4 Gyr N-body simulations with the currently known Solar System planetary architecture, plus a 10 Earth mass planet with similar orbital parameters to those suggested by Trujillo & Sheppard (2014) or Batygin & Brown (2016), and 10^5 test particles in an initial planetesimal disk. We find that including a distant superearth-mass planet produces a substantially different orbital distribution for the scattering and detached TNOs, raising the pericenters and inclinations of moderate semimajor axis (50<a<500 AU) objects. We test whether this signature is detectable via a simulator with the observational characteristics of four precisely characterized TNO surveys. We find that the qualitatively very distinct Solar System models that include a ninth planet are essentially observationally indistinguishable from an outer Solar System produced solely by the four giant planets. We also find that the mass of the Kuiper Belt's current scattering and detached populations is required to be 3-10 times larger in the presence of an additional planet. We do not find any evidence for clustering of orbital angles in our simulated TNO population. Wide-field, deep surveys targeting inclined high-pericenter objects will be required to distinguish between these different scenarios.

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arXiv2016

Consequences of a Distant Massive Planet on the Large Semi-major Axis Trans-Neptunian Objects

We explore the distant giant planet hypothesis by integrating the large semi-major axis, large pericenter Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) in the presence of the giant planets and an external perturber whose orbit is consistent with the proposed distant, eccentric, and inclined giant planet, so called planet 9. We find that TNOs with semi-major axes greater than 250 au experience some longitude of perihelion shepherding, but that a generic outcome of such evolutions is that the TNOs evolve to larger pericenter orbits, and commonly get raised to retrograde inclinations. This pericenter and inclination evolution requires a massive disk of TNOs (tens of M$_\Earth$) in order to explain the detection of the known sample today. Some of the highly inclined orbits produced by the examined perturbers will be inside of the orbital parameter space probed by prior surveys, implying a missing signature of the 9th planet scenario. The distant giant planet scenarios explored in this work do not reproduce the observed signal of simultaneous clustering in argument of pericenter, longitude of the ascending node, and longitude of perihelion in the region of the known TNOs.

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arXiv2015

OSSOS II: A Sharp Transition in the Absolute Magnitude Distribution of the Kuiper Belt's Scattering Population

We measure the absolute magnitude, $H$, distribution, $dN(H) \propto 10^{αH}$ of the scattering Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) as a proxy for their size-frequency distribution. We show that the H-distribution of the scattering TNOs is not consistent with a single-slope distribution, but must transition around $H_g \sim 9$ to either a knee with a shallow slope or to a divot, which is a differential drop followed by second exponential distribution. Our analysis is based on a sample of 22 scattering TNOs drawn from three different TNO surveys, the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS, Petit et al. 2011), Alexandersen et al. (2014), and the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS, Bannister et al. 2016), all of which provide well characterized detection thresholds, combined with a cosmogonic model for the formation of the scattering TNO population. Our measured absolute magnitude distribution result is independent of the choice of cosmogonic model. Based on our analysis, we estimate that number of scattering TNOs is (2.4-8.3)$\times 10^5$ for $H_r < 12$. A divot $H$-distribution is seen in a variety of formation scenarios and may explain several puzzles in Kuiper Belt science. We find that a divot $H$-distribution simultaneously explains the observed scattering TNO, Neptune Trojan, Plutino, and Centaur $H$-distributions while simultaneously predicting a large enough scattering TNO population to act as the sole supply of the Jupiter-Family Comets.

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arXiv2013

A Possible Divot in the Size Distribution of the Kuiper Belt's Scattering Objects

Via joint analysis of a calibrated telescopic survey, which found scattering Kuiper Belt objects, and models of their expected orbital distribution, we measure the form of the scattering object's size distribution. Ruling out a single power-law at greater than 99% confidence, we constrain the form of the size distribution and find that, surprisingly, our analysis favours a very sudden decrease (a divot) in the number distribution as diameters decrease below 100 km, with the number of smaller objects then rising again as expected via collisional equilibrium. Extrapolating at this collisional equilibrium slope produced enough kilometer-scale scattering objects to supply the nearby Jupiter-Family comets. Our interpretation is that this divot feature is a preserved relic of the size distribution made by planetesimal formation, now "frozen in" to portions of the Kuiper Belt sharing a "hot" orbital inclination distribution, explaining several puzzles in Kuiper Belt science. Additionally, we show that to match today's scattering-object inclination distribution, the supply source that was scattered outward must have already been vertically heated to of order 10 degrees.

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