arXiv subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Caglar Tuncay.
A model on the effects of leader, media, viruses, and worms and other agents on the opinion of individuals is developed and utilized to simulate the formation of consensus in society and price in market via excess between supply and demand. Effects of some time varying drives, (harmonic and hyperbolic) are also investigated. Key words: Opinion; Leader; Media; Market; Buyers; Sellers; Excess
Involving effects of media, opinion leader and other agents on the opinion of individuals of market society, a trader based model is developed and utilized to simulate price via supply and demand. Pronounced effects are considered with several weights and some personal differences between traders are taken into account. Resulting time series and probabilty distribution function involving a power law for price come out similar to the real ones.
The daily volume of transaction on the New York Stock Exchange and its day-to-day fluctuations are analysed with respect to power-law tails as well long-term trends. We also model the transition to a Gaussian distribution for longer time intervals, like months instead of days.
Associating stock mechanics to real economy, in terms of volume, number of transactions, and cost, i.e. money flow for shares, we obtained the fundamental laws of stock mechanics.
Predicting absolute magnitude of fluctuations of price, even if their sign remains unknown, is important for risk analysis and for option prices. In the present work, we display our predictions about absolute magnitude of daily fluctuations of the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA), utilizing the original theory of conservation of total energy, for the coming 500 days.
A new method, based on the original theory of conservation of sum of kinetic and potential energy defined for prices is proposed and applied on Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA). The general trends averaged over months or years gave a roughly conserved total energy, with three different potential energies, i.e. positive definite quadratic, negative definite quadratic and linear potential energy for exponential rises (and falls), sinusoidal oscillations and parabolic trajectories, respectively. Corresponding expressions for force (impact) are also given. Keywords:
DJIA is tested whether it can be described as a mechanical system conserving total energy with K (=v*v/2) + U, where U is calculated as the negative of work done by force obtained in terms of the second derivative of price, assuming unit mass.
An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a coming recession in them. An emerging market, Istanbul Stock Exchange index ISE-100 is found involving a potential to continue to rise.
New theoretical approaches about forecasting stock markets are proposed. A mathematization of the stock market in terms of arithmetical relations is given, where some simple (non-differential, non-fractal) expressions are also suggested as general stock price formuli in closed forms which are able to generate a variety of possible price movements in time. A kind of mechanics is submitted to cover the price movements in terms of classical concepts. Where utilizing stock mechanics to grow the portfolios in real markets is also proven.