arXiv subjects

Caitlin Witt

Publications and source records attributed to Caitlin Witt.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Optimizing Optical Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in AGN Light Curves: Fourier versus Bayesian Periodicity Detection

Simulations predict that supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) will exhibit periodic brightness variations that may exceed the stochastic variability intrinsic to active galactic nuclei (AGN). In this paper, we simulate SMBHBs with damped random walk (DRW) AGN variability and an added sinusoidal signal from the orbital motion, and test three methods -- the Generalized Lomb Scargle Periodogram (GLSP), the nested Bayesian sampler (NBS), and the Weighted Wavelet Z-Transform (WWZ) -- to determine which is best at recovering the periodicity. Our simulated light curves follow the properties of the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (CRTS), Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) to best inform current and future SMBHB searches. We map a broad range of parameter space and identify which DRW-only light curves best mimic periodicity and pass each method's model selection. The NBS performs best at detecting periodicity and filtering out DRW-only light curves. Combined candidate selection with both the NBS and GLSP significantly reduces false positive rates with marginal impact to true positive rates. With this joint model selection pipeline, we find the lowest false positive rates in ZTF-like simulations and the highest detection rates in LSST-like simulations. Using a modified computation of the False Alarm Probability (FAP) with GLSP, we efficiently triage LSST AGN light curves (~10^7 light curves in ~10-30 hours) and achieve true- and false- positive rates of ~40% and ~0.5%, respectively.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Multi-messenger Analysis of Supermassive Black Hole Binaries: The Joint-likelihood Approach

Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) formed in galaxy mergers are promising multi-messenger sources. They can be identified as quasars with periodic variability in electromagnetic (EM) time-domain surveys. The most massive of those systems can be detected by Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) in the nanohertz frequency gravitational-wave (GW) band. We present a method to simultaneously analyze EM lightcurves and PTA observations as a multi-messenger data stream. For this, we employ a joint likelihood analysis, in which the likelihood of the EM data and the PTA likelihood are multiplied. We test this approach by simulating 208 binary signals that can be detected both by the Rubin Observatory in the nominal ten-year survey and by a PTA dataset with a ~30-year baseline, which resembles our expectations for a dataset of the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA) collaboration in ~2035. We compare our multi-messenger analysis with analyses that take into account the EM and PTA data separately. We find that the joint likelihood approach results in improved parameter estimation with smaller percent errors compared to the distinct analyses that consider only EM or PTA data separately. Among the SMBHB parameters, the binary total mass and the orbital inclination show the greatest improvement. We also compare our multi-messenger pipeline with an analysis, in which the EM constraints are used as priors to the PTA analysis. We demonstrate that the joint likelihood approach delivers tighter constraints on all binary parameters, with systematically higher values of Kullback-Leibler divergence, which measures the deviation of the posterior distribution from the prior.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Reliable Identification of Binary Supermassive Black Holes from Rubin Observatory Time-Domain Monitoring

Periodic signatures in time-domain observations of quasars have been used to search for binary supermassive black holes. These searches, across existing time-domain surveys, have produced several hundred candidates. The general stochastic variability of quasars, however, can masquerade as a false-positive periodic signal, especially when monitoring cadence and duration are limited. In this work, we predict the detectability of binary supermassive black holes in the upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We apply computationally inexpensive sinusoidal curve fits to millions of simulated LSST Deep Drilling Field light curves of both single, isolated quasars and binary quasars. Period and phase of simulated binary signals can generally be disentangled from quasar variability. Binary amplitude is overestimated and poorly recovered for two-thirds of potential binaries due to quasar accretion variability. Quasars with strong intrinsic variability can obscure a binary signal too much for recovery. We also find that the most luminous quasars mimic current binary candidate light curves and their properties: false positive rates are 60\% for these quasars. The reliable recovery of binary period and phase for a wide range of input binary LSST light curves is promising for multi-messenger characterization of binary supermassive black holes. However, pure electromagnetic detections of binaries using photometric periodicity with amplitude greater than 0.1 magnitude will result in samples that are overwhelmed by false positives. This paper represents an important and computationally inexpensive way forward for understanding the true and false positive rates for binary candidates identified by Rubin.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Bayesian Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Evidence for a low-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background has recently been reported based on analyses of pulsar timing array data. The most likely source of such a background is a population of supermassive black hole binaries, the loudest of which may be individually detected in these datasets. Here we present the search for individual supermassive black hole binaries in the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. We introduce several new techniques, which enhance the efficiency and modeling accuracy of the analysis. The search uncovered weak evidence for two candidate signals, one with a gravitational-wave frequency of $\sim$4 nHz, and another at $\sim$170 nHz. The significance of the low-frequency candidate was greatly diminished when Hellings-Downs correlations were included in the background model. The high-frequency candidate was discounted due to the lack of a plausible host galaxy, the unlikely astrophysical prior odds of finding such a source, and since most of its support comes from a single pulsar with a commensurate binary period. Finding no compelling evidence for signals from individual binary systems, we place upper limits on the strain amplitude of gravitational waves emitted by such systems.

astro-ph.HE↗