arXiv subjects

Calypso Herrera

Publications and source records attributed to Calypso Herrera.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Optimal Stopping via Randomized Neural Networks

This paper presents the benefits of using randomized neural networks instead of standard basis functions or deep neural networks to approximate the solutions of optimal stopping problems. The key idea is to use neural networks, where the parameters of the hidden layers are generated randomly and only the last layer is trained, in order to approximate the continuation value. Our approaches are applicable to high dimensional problems where the existing approaches become increasingly impractical. In addition, since our approaches can be optimized using simple linear regression, they are easy to implement and theoretical guarantees can be provided. We test our approaches for American option pricing on Black--Scholes, Heston and rough Heston models and for optimally stopping a fractional Brownian motion. In all cases, our algorithms outperform the state-of-the-art and other relevant machine learning approaches in terms of computation time while achieving comparable results. Moreover, we show that they can also be used to efficiently compute Greeks of American options.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Denise: Deep Robust Principal Component Analysis for Positive Semidefinite Matrices

The robust PCA of covariance matrices plays an essential role when isolating key explanatory features. The currently available methods for performing such a low-rank plus sparse decomposition are matrix specific, meaning, those algorithms must re-run for every new matrix. Since these algorithms are computationally expensive, it is preferable to learn and store a function that nearly instantaneously performs this decomposition when evaluated. Therefore, we introduce Denise, a deep learning-based algorithm for robust PCA of covariance matrices, or more generally, of symmetric positive semidefinite matrices, which learns precisely such a function. Theoretical guarantees for Denise are provided. These include a novel universal approximation theorem adapted to our geometric deep learning problem and convergence to an optimal solution to the learning problem. Our experiments show that Denise matches state-of-the-art performance in terms of decomposition quality, while being approximately $2000\times$ faster than the state-of-the-art, principal component pursuit (PCP), and $200 \times$ faster than the current speed-optimized method, fast PCP.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Local Lipschitz Bounds of Deep Neural Networks

The Lipschitz constant is an important quantity that arises in analysing the convergence of gradient-based optimization methods. It is generally unclear how to estimate the Lipschitz constant of a complex model. Thus, this paper studies an important problem that may be useful to the broader area of non-convex optimization. The main result provides a local upper bound on the Lipschitz constants of a multi-layer feed-forward neural network and its gradient. Moreover, lower bounds are established as well, which are used to show that it is impossible to derive global upper bounds for the Lipschitz constants. In contrast to previous works, we compute the Lipschitz constants with respect to the network parameters and not with respect to the inputs. These constants are needed for the theoretical description of many step size schedulers of gradient based optimization schemes and their convergence analysis. The idea is both simple and effective. The results are extended to a generalization of neural networks, continuously deep neural networks, which are described by controlled ODEs.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Low-Rank plus Sparse Decomposition of Covariance Matrices using Neural Network Parametrization

This paper revisits the problem of decomposing a positive semidefinite matrix as a sum of a matrix with a given rank plus a sparse matrix. An immediate application can be found in portfolio optimization, when the matrix to be decomposed is the covariance between the different assets in the portfolio. Our approach consists in representing the low-rank part of the solution as the product $MM^{T}$, where $M$ is a rectangular matrix of appropriate size, parametrized by the coefficients of a deep neural network. We then use a gradient descent algorithm to minimize an appropriate loss function over the parameters of the network. We deduce its convergence rate to a local optimum from the Lipschitz smoothness of our loss function. We show that the rate of convergence grows polynomially in the dimensions of the input, output, and the size of each of the hidden layers.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Neural Jump Ordinary Differential Equations: Consistent Continuous-Time Prediction and Filtering

Combinations of neural ODEs with recurrent neural networks (RNN), like GRU-ODE-Bayes or ODE-RNN are well suited to model irregularly observed time series. While those models outperform existing discrete-time approaches, no theoretical guarantees for their predictive capabilities are available. Assuming that the irregularly-sampled time series data originates from a continuous stochastic process, the $L^2$-optimal online prediction is the conditional expectation given the currently available information. We introduce the Neural Jump ODE (NJ-ODE) that provides a data-driven approach to learn, continuously in time, the conditional expectation of a stochastic process. Our approach models the conditional expectation between two observations with a neural ODE and jumps whenever a new observation is made. We define a novel training framework, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees for the first time. In particular, we show that the output of our model converges to the $L^2$-optimal prediction. This can be interpreted as solution to a special filtering problem. We provide experiments showing that the theoretical results also hold empirically. Moreover, we experimentally show that our model outperforms the baselines in more complex learning tasks and give comparisons on real-world datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2014

Parallel American Monte Carlo

In this paper we introduce a new algorithm for American Monte Carlo that can be used either for American-style options, callable structured products or for computing counterparty credit risk (e.g. CVA or PFE computation). Leveraging least squares regressions, the main novel feature of our algorithm is that it can be fully parallelized. Moreover, there is no need to store the paths and the payoff computation can be done forwards: this allows to price structured products with complex path and exercise dependencies. The key idea of our algorithm is to split the set of paths in several subsets which are used iteratively. We give the convergence rate of the algorithm. We illustrate our method on an American put option and compare the results with the Longstaff-Schwartz algorithm.

q-fin.CP↗