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Cameron Cloud

Publications and source records attributed to Cameron Cloud.

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Re-Solving the Shepherding Problem: Lead When Possible, Herd When Necessary

Designing systems for autonomous transport of groups of living agents has received a lot of attention in recent years due to a wealth of important potential applications. Biomimetic approaches are often sought, and a range of herding algorithms, inspired by how dogs herd sheep, as well as leadership algorithms mimicking leader-follower systems, have been introduced. However, they suffer from a common problem: shepherding algorithms require that agents evade the shepherd, and leading algorithms require that agents follow. This can cause problems in real-world applications where the behavioral responses of the agents to a transporter are likely to be heterogeneous over both long and short timescales. Here, we introduce an algorithm that adaptively switches between leading and herding depending on the response it receives from the agents to mitigate this problem. We show via simulation that this mixed algorithm can transport groups with any follower and evader composition, and we compare its performance with lead-only and herd-only algorithms. We also show that the mixed algorithm can deal with groups where individual agents randomly switch their strategy over time, as long as sufficient time is provided to complete the task relative to the switching rate. Given that our algorithm overcomes issues associated with herd-only and lead-only algorithms and might also, as a side effect, mitigate the issue of habituation to robotic transporters, it takes us one step closer to realizing many of the proposed applications for these types of algorithms.

q-bio.OT

Modeling human activity-related spread of the spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) in the US

The spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) has recently spread from its native range to several other countries and forecasts predict that it may become a global invasive pest. In particular, since its confirmed presence in the United States in 2014 it has established itself as a major invasive pest in the Mid-Atlantic region where it is damaging both naturally occurring and commercially important farmed plants. Quarantine zones have been introduced to contain the infestation, but the spread to new areas continues. At present the pathways and drivers of spread are not well-understood. In particular, several human activity related factors have been proposed to contribute to the spread; however, which features of the current spread can be attributed to these factors remains unclear. Here we collect county level data on infestation status and four human activity related factors and use statistical methods to determine whether there is evidence for an association between the factors and infestation. Then we construct a mechanistic network model based on the factors found to be associated with infestation and use it to simulate local spread. We find that the model reproduces key features of the spread 2014 to 2021. In particular, the growth of the main infestation region and the opening of spread corridors in the westward and southwestern directions is consistent with data and the model accurately forecasts the correct infestation status at the county level in 2021 with $81\%$ accuracy. We then use the model to forecast the spread up to 2025 in a larger region. Given that this model is based on a few human activity related factors that can be targeted, it may prove useful in informing management and further modeling efforts related to the current spotted lanternfly infestation in the US and potentially for current and future invasions elsewhere globally.

q-bio.PE