arXiv subjects

Can Wan

Publications and source records attributed to Can Wan.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

From Forecast to Action: A Deep Learning Model for Predicting Power Outages During Tropical Cyclones

Power outages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) pose serious risks to electric power systems and the communities they serve. Accurate, high-resolution outage forecasting is essential for enabling both proactive mitigation planning and real-time emergency response. This study introduces the SpatioTemporal Outage ForeCAST (STO-CAST) model, a deep learning framework developed for real-time, regional-scale outage prediction during TC events with high-resolution outputs in both space and time. STO-CAST integrates static environmental and infrastructure attributes with dynamic meteorological and outage sequences using gated recurrent units (GRUs) and fully connected layers, and is trained via a Leave-One-Storm-Out (LOSO) cross-validation strategy along with holdout grid experiments to demonstrate its preliminary generalization capability to unseen storms and grids. The model produces hourly outage forecasts at a 4 km * 4 km resolution and supports dual forecasting modes: short-term nowcasting with a 6-hour lead time via assimilation of real-time observations, and long-term forecasting with a 60-hour lead time based on evolving meteorological projections. A case study on Typhoon Muifa (2022) demonstrates STO-CAST's operational effectiveness, including error decomposition across model design, meteorological uncertainty, and observation gaps, while highlighting the value of real-time data assimilation and the model's capacity to identify evolving outage hotspots. STO-CAST offers a scalable, data-driven solution to support risk-informed emergency response and enhance power system resilience under intensifying TC threats.

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arXiv2025

A Point-Hyperplane Geometry Method for Operational Security Region of Renewable Energy Generation in Power Systems

The rapid growth of renewable energy generation challenges the secure operation of power systems. It becomes crucial to quantify the critical security boundaries and hosting capability of renewable generation at the system operation level. This paper proposes a novel point-hyperplane geometry (PHG) method to accurately obtain the geometric expression of the operational security region of renewable energy generation for power systems. Firstly, the geometric expression of the operational security region is defined as a polytope of boundary hyperplanes in the form of inequalities satisfying the system operation constraints. Then, an orthogonal basis generation method is proposed to solve a single boundary hyperplane of the polytope based on intersecting and orthogonal geometric principles. Next, a point-hyperplane iteration algorithm is developed to progressively obtain the overall geometric polytope of the operational security region of renewable energy generation in power systems. Besides, the flexible performance trade-off can be achieved by modifying the proposed maximum tolerated angle between adjacent hyperplanes. Finally, comprehensive case studies verify the effectiveness and superiority of the PHG method.

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arXiv2025

A Weighted Predict-and-Optimize Framework for Power System Operation Considering Varying Impacts of Uncertainty

Prediction deviations of different uncertainties have varying impacts on downstream decision-making. Improving the prediction accuracy of critical uncertainties with significant impacts on decision-making quality yields better optimization results. Motivated by this observation, this paper proposes a novel weighted predict-and-optimize (WPO) framework for decision-making under multiple uncertainties. Specifically, we incorporate an uncertainty-aware weighting mechanism into the predictive model to capture the relative impact of each uncertainty on specific optimization tasks, and introduce a problem-driven prediction loss (PDPL) to quantify the suboptimality of the weighted predictions relative to perfect predictions in downstream optimization. By optimizing the uncertainty weights to minimize the PDPL, the proposed WPO framework enables adaptive assessment of uncertainty impacts and joint learning of prediction and optimization. Furthermore, to facilitate weight optimization, we develop a surrogate model that establishes a direct mapping between the uncertainty weights and the PDPL, where enhanced graph convolutional networks and multi-task learning are adopted for efficient surrogate model construction and training. Numerical experiments on the modified IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed WPO framework outperforms the traditional predict-then-optimize paradigm, reducing the PDPL by an average of 55% within acceptable computational time.

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arXiv2024

Decision-Oriented Learning for Future Power System Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Better forecasts may not lead to better decision-making. To address this challenge, decision-oriented learning (DOL) has been proposed as a new branch of machine learning that replaces traditional statistical loss with a decision loss to form an end-to-end model. Applications of DOL in power systems have been developed in recent years. For renewable-rich power systems, uncertainties propagate through sequential tasks, where traditional statistical-based approaches focus on minimizing statistical errors at intermediate stages but may fail to provide optimal decisions at the final stage. This paper first elaborates on the mismatch between more accurate forecasts and more optimal decisions in the power system caused by statistical-based learning (SBL) and explains how DOL resolves this problem. Secondly, this paper extensively reviews DOL techniques and their applications in power systems while highlighting their pros and cons in relation to SBL. Finally, this paper identifies the challenges to adopt DOL in the energy sector and presents future research directions.

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arXiv2023

Nonparametric Stochastic Analysis of Dynamic Frequency in Power Systems: A Generalized Ito Process Model

The large-scale integration of intermittent renewable energy has brought serious challenges to the frequency security of power systems. In this paper, a novel nonparametric stochastic analysis method of system dynamic frequency is proposed to accurately analyze the impact of renewable energy uncertainty on power system frequency security, independent of any parametric distribution assumption. The nonparametric uncertainty of renewable generation disturbance is quantified based on probabilistic forecasting. Then, a novel generalized Ito process is proposed as a linear combination of several Gaussian Ito processes, which can represent any probability distribution. Furthermore, a stochastic model of power system frequency response is constructed by considering virtual synchronization control of wind power. On basis of generalized Ito process, the complex nonlinear stochastic differential equation is transformed into a linear combination of several linear stochastic differential equations to approximate nonparametric probability distribution of the system dynamic frequency. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is verified by the single-machine system and IEEE 39-Bus system.

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arXiv2020

Convex Relaxation of Combined Heat and Power Dispatch

Combined heat and power dispatch promotes interactions and synergies between electric power systems and district heating systems. However, nonlinear and nonconvex heating flow imposes significant challenges on finding qualified solutions efficiently. Most existing methods rely on constant flow assumptions to derive a linear heating flow model, sacrificing optimality for computational simplicity. This paper proposes a novel convex combined heat and power dispatch model based on model simplification and constraint relaxation, which improves solution quality and avoids assumptions on operating regimes of district heating systems. To alleviate mathematical complexity introduced by the commonly used node method, a simplified thermal dynamic model is proposed to capture temperature changes in networked pipelines. Conic and polyhedral relaxations are then applied to convexify the original problems with bilinear and quadratic equality constraints. Furthermore, an adaptive solution algorithm is proposed to successively reduce relaxation gaps based on dynamic bivariate partitioning, improving solution optimality with desirable computational efficiency. The proposed method is verified on a 33-bus electric power system integrated with a 30-node district heating system and compared to nonlinear programming solvers and constant-flow-based solutions.

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arXiv2020

Efficient Robust Dispatch of Combined Heat and Power Systems

Combined heat and power systems facilitate efficient interactions between individual energy sectors for higher renewable energy accommodation. However, the feasibility of operational strategies is difficult to guarantee due to the presence of substantial uncertainties pertinent to renewable energy and multi-energy loads. This paper proposes a novel efficient robust dispatch model of combined heat and power systems based on extensions of disturbance invariant sets. The approach has high computational efficiency and provides flexible and robust strategies with an adjustable level of conservativeness. In particular, the proposed robust dispatch method obtains operational strategies by solving a nominal uncertainty-free dispatch problem, whose complexity is identical to a deterministic problem. The robustness against uncertainties is enhanced by endowing the nominal dispatch model with properly tightened constraints considering time-variant uncertainty sets. Towards this end, a novel direct constraint tightening algorithm is developed based on the dual norm to calculate multi-period tightened constraints efficiently without linear programming iterations. Furthermore, the budget uncertainty set is newly combined with constraint tightening to flexibly adjust the conservativeness level of robust solutions. The effectiveness of the proposed robust method is demonstrated in simulation studies of a test system in terms of computational efficiency, decision robustness and cost optimality.

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arXiv2017

A Multi-model Combination Approach for Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting

Short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting can provide critical quantified uncertainty information of wind generation for power system operation and control. As the complicated characteristics of wind power prediction error, it would be difficult to develop a universal forecasting model dominating over other alternative models. Therefore, a novel multi-model combination (MMC) approach for short-term probabilistic wind generation forecasting is proposed in this paper to exploit the advantages of different forecasting models. The proposed approach can combine different forecasting models those provide different kinds of probability density functions to improve the probabilistic forecast accuracy. Three probabilistic forecasting models based on the sparse Bayesian learning, kernel density estimation and beta distribution fitting are used to form the combined model. The parameters of the MMC model are solved based on Bayesian framework. Numerical tests illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed MMC approach.

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