Cara Koepele | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Scenario-Based Stochastic MPC for Energy Hubs with EV Fleets Under Persistent Grid Outages

Emissions reduction and resilience to outages motivate the adoption of renewable microgrids. Surprisingly, research integrating both probabilistic grid outages and electric vehicle (EV) charging requirements remains limited. This paper addresses this gap by developing a scenario-based stochastic model predictive controller (SMPC) for a microgrid energy hub comprising solar generation, battery storage, diesel backup, and an EV fleet connected to a weak grid. Grid outage and campus load scenarios are generated from a continuous-time Markov chain and a Gaussian Process, respectively. Using 2023 operational data from the Ashesi University Energy Hub in Ghana, we demonstrate that the SMPC achieves performance within 1\% of a perfect-forecast benchmark. In contrast, a naive MPC that assumes continuous grid availability offers no economic or sustainability advantage over rule-based control, with both incurring significantly higher costs and emissions than the SMPC. These results highlight that outage anticipation is essential for economic viability. Finally, we show that incorporating a deterministic buffer against EV consumption uncertainty eliminates over 90\% of state-of-charge violations with negligible impact on total operating costs

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arXiv2025

Plug and Play Distributed Control of Clustered Energy Hub Networks

The transition to renewable energy is driving the rise of distributed multi-energy systems, in which individual energy hubs and prosumers (e.g., homes, industrial campuses) generate, store, and trade energy. Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) schemes are widely used to optimize operation of energy hubs by efficiently dispatching resources and minimizing costs while ensuring operational constraints are met. Peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading among hubs enhances network efficiency and reduces costs but also increases computational and privacy challenges, especially as the network scales. Additionally, current distributed control techniques require global recomputation whenever the network topology changes, limiting scalability. To address these challenges, we propose a clustering-based P2P trading framework that enables plug-and-play operation, allowing energy hubs to seamlessly join or leave without requiring network-wide controller updates. The impact is restricted to the hubs within the affected cluster. The energy trading problem is formulated as a bi-level bargaining game, where inter-cluster trading commitments are determined at the cluster level, while energy dispatch and cost-sharing among hubs within a cluster are refined at the hub level. Both levels are solved in a distributed manner using ADMM, ensuring computational feasibility and privacy preservation. Moreover, we develop plug-and-play procedures to handle dynamic topology changes at both the hub and cluster levels, minimizing disruptions across the network. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed bi-level framework reduces operational costs, and enables scalable energy management under plug-and-play operation.

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