arXiv subjects

Carey E. Priebe

Publications and source records attributed to Carey E. Priebe.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Toward a digital twin of U.S. Congress

In this paper we provide evidence that a virtual model of U.S. congresspersons based on a collection of language models satisfies the definition of a digital twin. In particular, we introduce and provide high-level descriptions of a daily-updated dataset that contains every Tweet from every U.S. congressperson during their respective terms. We demonstrate that a modern language model equipped with congressperson-specific subsets of this data are capable of producing Tweets that are largely indistinguishable from actual Tweets posted by their physical counterparts. We illustrate how generated Tweets can be used to predict roll-call vote behaviors and to quantify the likelihood of congresspersons crossing party lines, thereby assisting stakeholders in allocating resources and potentially impacting real-world legislative dynamics. We conclude with a discussion of the limitations and important extensions of our analysis.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Refined Graph Encoder Embedding via Self-Training and Latent Community Recovery

This paper introduces a refined graph encoder embedding method, enhancing the original graph encoder embedding through linear transformation, self-training, and hidden community recovery within observed communities. We provide the theoretical rationale for the refinement procedure, demonstrating how and why our proposed method can effectively identify useful hidden communities under stochastic block models. Furthermore, we show how the refinement method leads to improved vertex embedding and better decision boundaries for subsequent vertex classification. The efficacy of our approach is validated through numerical experiments, which exhibit clear advantages in identifying meaningful latent communities and improved vertex classification across a collection of simulated and real-world graph data.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Investigating social alignment via mirroring in a system of interacting language models

Alignment is a social phenomenon wherein individuals share a common goal or perspective. Mirroring, or mimicking the behaviors and opinions of another individual, is one mechanism by which individuals can become aligned. Large scale investigations of the effect of mirroring on alignment have been limited due to the scalability of traditional experimental designs in sociology. In this paper, we introduce a simple computational framework that enables studying the effect of mirroring behavior on alignment in multi-agent systems. We simulate systems of interacting large language models in this framework and characterize overall system behavior and alignment with quantitative measures of agent dynamics. We find that system behavior is strongly influenced by the range of communication of each agent and that these effects are exacerbated by increased rates of mirroring. We discuss the observed simulated system behavior in the context of known human social dynamics.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

Explaining Categorical Feature Interactions Using Graph Covariance and LLMs

Modern datasets often consist of numerous samples with abundant features and associated timestamps. Analyzing such datasets to uncover underlying events typically requires complex statistical methods and substantial domain expertise. A notable example, and the primary data focus of this paper, is the global synthetic dataset from the Counter Trafficking Data Collaborative (CTDC) -- a global hub of human trafficking data containing over 200,000 anonymized records spanning from 2002 to 2022, with numerous categorical features for each record. In this paper, we propose a fast and scalable method for analyzing and extracting significant categorical feature interactions, and querying large language models (LLMs) to generate data-driven insights that explain these interactions. Our approach begins with a binarization step for categorical features using one-hot encoding, followed by the computation of graph covariance at each time. This graph covariance quantifies temporal changes in dependence structures within categorical data and is established as a consistent dependence measure under the Bernoulli distribution. We use this measure to identify significant feature pairs, such as those with the most frequent trends over time or those exhibiting sudden spikes in dependence at specific moments. These extracted feature pairs, along with their timestamps, are subsequently passed to an LLM tasked with generating potential explanations of the underlying events driving these dependence changes. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through extensive simulations, and its application to the CTDC dataset reveals meaningful feature pairs and potential data stories underlying the observed feature interactions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Consistent estimation of generative model representations in the data kernel perspective space

Generative models, such as large language models and text-to-image diffusion models, produce relevant information when presented a query. Different models may produce different information when presented the same query. As the landscape of generative models evolves, it is important to develop techniques to study and analyze differences in model behaviour. In this paper we present novel theoretical results for embedding-based representations of generative models in the context of a set of queries. In particular, we establish sufficient conditions for the consistent estimation of the model embeddings in situations where the query set and the number of models grow.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Convergence guarantees for response prediction for latent structure network time series

In this article, we propose a technique to predict the response associated with an unlabeled time series of networks in a semisupervised setting. Our model involves a collection of time series of random networks of growing size, where some of the time series are associated with responses. Assuming that the collection of time series admits an unknown lower dimensional structure, our method exploits the underlying structure to consistently predict responses at the unlabeled time series of networks. Each time series represents a multilayer network on a common set of nodes, and raw stress embedding, a popular dimensionality reduction tool, is used for capturing the unknown latent low dimensional structure. Apart from establishing theoretical convergence guarantees and supporting them with numerical results, we demonstrate the use of our method in the analysis of real-world biological learning circuits of larval Drosophila.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Continuous Multidimensional Scaling

Multidimensional scaling (MDS) is the act of embedding proximity information about a set of $n$ objects in $d$-dimensional Euclidean space. As originally conceived by the psychometric community, MDS was concerned with embedding a fixed set of proximities associated with a fixed set of objects. Modern concerns, e.g., that arise in developing asymptotic theories for statistical inference on random graphs, more typically involve studying the limiting behavior of a sequence of proximities associated with an increasing set of objects. Here we are concerned with embedding dissimilarities by minimizing Kruskal's (1964) raw stress criterion. Standard results from the theory of point-to-set maps can be used to establish that, if $n$ is fixed and a sequence of dissimilarity matrices converges, then the limit of their embedded structures is the embedded structure of the limiting dissimilarity matrix. But what if $n$ increases? It then becomes necessary to reformulate MDS so that the entire sequence of embedding problems can be viewed as a sequence of optimization problems in a fixed space. We present such a reformulation, {\em continuous MDS}. Within the continuous MDS framework, we derive two $L^p$ consistency results, one for embedding without constraints on the configuration, the other for embedding subject to {\em approximate Lipschitz constraints}\/ that encourage smoothness of the embedding function. The latter approach, {\em Approximate Lipschitz Embedding}\/ (ALE) is new. Finally, we demonstrate that embedded structures produced by ALE can be interpolated in a way that results in uniform convergence.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Multiscale Comparative Connectomics

The connectome, a map of the structural and/or functional connections in the brain, provides a complex representation of the neurobiological phenotypes on which it supervenes. This information-rich data modality has the potential to transform our understanding of the relationship between patterns in brain connectivity and neurological processes, disorders, and diseases. However, existing computational techniques used to analyze connectomes are oftentimes insufficient for interrogating multi-subject connectomics datasets: many current methods are either solely designed to analyze single connectomes or leverage heuristic graph statistics that are unable to capture the complete topology of multiscale connections between brain regions. To enable more rigorous connectomics analysis, we introduce a set of robust and interpretable effect size measures motivated by recent theoretical advances in random graph models. These measures facilitate simultaneous analysis of multiple connectomes across different scales of network topology, enabling the robust and reproducible discovery of hierarchical brain structures that vary in relation to phenotypic profiles. In addition to explaining the theoretical foundations and guarantees of our algorithms, we demonstrate their superiority over current state-of-the-art connectomics methods through extensive simulation studies and real-data experiments. Using a set of high-resolution connectomes obtained from genetically distinct mouse strains (including the BTBR mouse -- a standard model of autism -- and three behavioral wild-types), we illustrate how our methods successfully uncover latent information in multi-subject connectomics data and yield valuable insights into the connective correlates of neurological phenotypes that other methods do not capture. The data and code necessary to reproduce our analyses are available at https://github.com/neurodata/MCC.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2024

Optimizing the Induced Correlation in Omnibus Joint Graph Embeddings

Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that joint graph embedding algorithms induce correlation across the networks in the embedding space. In the Omnibus joint graph embedding framework, previous results explicitly delineated the dual effects of the algorithm-induced and model-inherent correlations on the correlation across the embedded networks. Accounting for and mitigating the algorithm-induced correlation is key to subsequent inference, as sub-optimal Omnibus matrix constructions have been demonstrated to lead to loss in inference fidelity. This work presents the first efforts to automate the Omnibus construction in order to address two key questions in this joint embedding framework: the correlation-to-OMNI problem and the flat correlation problem. In the flat correlation problem, we seek to understand the minimum algorithm-induced flat correlation (i.e., the same across all graph pairs) produced by a generalized Omnibus embedding. Working in a subspace of the fully general Omnibus matrices, we prove both a lower bound for this flat correlation and that the classical Omnibus construction induces the maximal flat correlation. In the correlation-to-OMNI problem, we present an algorithm -- named corr2Omni -- that, from a given matrix of estimated pairwise graph correlations, estimates the matrix of generalized Omnibus weights that induces optimal correlation in the embedding space. Moreover, in both simulated and real data settings, we demonstrate the increased effectiveness of our corr2Omni algorithm versus the classical Omnibus construction.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Universally Consistent K-Sample Tests via Dependence Measures

The K-sample testing problem involves determining whether K groups of data points are each drawn from the same distribution. Analysis of variance is arguably the most classical method to test mean differences, along with several recent methods to test distributional differences. In this paper, we demonstrate the existence of a transformation that allows K-sample testing to be carried out using any dependence measure. Consequently, universally consistent K-sample testing can be achieved using a universally consistent dependence measure, such as distance correlation and the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion. This enables a wide range of dependence measures to be easily applied to K-sample testing.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

MedFuzz: Exploring the Robustness of Large Language Models in Medical Question Answering

Large language models (LLM) have achieved impressive performance on medical question-answering benchmarks. However, high benchmark accuracy does not imply that the performance generalizes to real-world clinical settings. Medical question-answering benchmarks rely on assumptions consistent with quantifying LLM performance but that may not hold in the open world of the clinic. Yet LLMs learn broad knowledge that can help the LLM generalize to practical conditions regardless of unrealistic assumptions in celebrated benchmarks. We seek to quantify how well LLM medical question-answering benchmark performance generalizes when benchmark assumptions are violated. Specifically, we present an adversarial method that we call MedFuzz (for medical fuzzing). MedFuzz attempts to modify benchmark questions in ways aimed at confounding the LLM. We demonstrate the approach by targeting strong assumptions about patient characteristics presented in the MedQA benchmark. Successful "attacks" modify a benchmark item in ways that would be unlikely to fool a medical expert but nonetheless "trick" the LLM into changing from a correct to an incorrect answer. Further, we present a permutation test technique that can ensure a successful attack is statistically significant. We show how to use performance on a "MedFuzzed" benchmark, as well as individual successful attacks. The methods show promise at providing insights into the ability of an LLM to operate robustly in more realistic settings.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Graph Encoder Ensemble for Simultaneous Vertex Embedding and Community Detection

In this paper, we introduce a novel and computationally efficient method for vertex embedding, community detection, and community size determination. Our approach leverages a normalized one-hot graph encoder and a rank-based cluster size measure. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate the excellent numerical performance of our proposed graph encoder ensemble algorithm.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Multiple Network Embedding for Anomaly Detection in Time Series of Graphs

This paper considers the graph signal processing problem of anomaly detection in time series of graphs. We examine two related, complementary inference tasks: the detection of anomalous graphs within a time series, and the detection of temporally anomalous vertices. We approach these tasks via the adaptation of statistically principled methods for joint graph inference, specifically \emph{multiple adjacency spectral embedding} (MASE). We demonstrate that our method is effective for our inference tasks. Moreover, we assess the performance of our method in terms of the underlying nature of detectable anomalies. We further provide the theoretical justification for our method and insight into its use. Applied to the Enron communication graph, a large-scale commercial search engine time series of graphs, and a larval Drosophila connectome data, our approaches demonstrate their applicability and identify the anomalous vertices beyond just large degree change.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Gotta match 'em all: Solution diversification in graph matching matched filters

We present a novel approach for finding multiple noisily embedded template graphs in a very large background graph. Our method builds upon the graph-matching-matched-filter technique proposed in Sussman et al., with the discovery of multiple diverse matchings being achieved by iteratively penalizing a suitable node-pair similarity matrix in the matched filter algorithm. In addition, we propose algorithmic speed-ups that greatly enhance the scalability of our matched-filter approach. We present theoretical justification of our methodology in the setting of correlated Erdos-Renyi graphs, showing its ability to sequentially discover multiple templates under mild model conditions. We additionally demonstrate our method's utility via extensive experiments both using simulated models and real-world dataset, include human brain connectomes and a large transactional knowledge base.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Discovering the Signal Subgraph: An Iterative Screening Approach on Graphs

Supervised learning on graphs is a challenging task due to the high dimensionality and inherent structural dependencies in the data, where each edge depends on a pair of vertices. Existing conventional methods are designed for standard Euclidean data and do not account for the structural information inherent in graphs. In this paper, we propose an iterative vertex screening method to achieve dimension reduction across multiple graph datasets with matched vertex sets and associated graph attributes. Our method aims to identify a signal subgraph to provide a more concise representation of the full graphs, potentially benefiting subsequent vertex classification tasks. The method screens the rows and columns of the adjacency matrix concurrently and stops when the resulting distance correlation is maximized. We establish the theoretical foundation of our method by proving that it estimates the true signal subgraph with high probability. Additionally, we establish the convergence rate of classification error under the Erdos-Renyi random graph model and prove that the subsequent classification can be asymptotically optimal, outperforming the entire graph under high-dimensional conditions. Our method is evaluated on various simulated datasets and real-world human and murine graphs derived from functional and structural magnetic resonance images. The results demonstrate its excellent performance in estimating the ground-truth signal subgraph and achieving superior classification accuracy.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Tracking the perspectives of interacting language models

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of producing high quality information at unprecedented rates. As these models continue to entrench themselves in society, the content they produce will become increasingly pervasive in databases that are, in turn, incorporated into the pre-training data, fine-tuning data, retrieval data, etc. of other language models. In this paper we formalize the idea of a communication network of LLMs and introduce a method for representing the perspective of individual models within a collection of LLMs. Given these tools we systematically study information diffusion in the communication network of LLMs in various simulated settings.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Towards a theory of out-of-distribution learning

Learning is a process wherein a learning agent enhances its performance through exposure of experience or data. Throughout this journey, the agent may encounter diverse learning environments. For example, data may be presented to the leaner all at once, in multiple batches, or sequentially. Furthermore, the distribution of each data sample could be either identical and independent (iid) or non-iid. Additionally, there may exist computational and space constraints for the deployment of the learning algorithms. The complexity of a learning task can vary significantly, depending on the learning setup and the constraints imposed upon it. However, it is worth noting that the current literature lacks formal definitions for many of the in-distribution and out-of-distribution learning paradigms. Establishing proper and universally agreed-upon definitions for these learning setups is essential for thoroughly exploring the evolution of ideas across different learning scenarios and deriving generalized mathematical bounds for these learners. In this paper, we aim to address this issue by proposing a chronological approach to defining different learning tasks using the provably approximately correct (PAC) learning framework. We will start with in-distribution learning and progress to recently proposed lifelong or continual learning. We employ consistent terminology and notation to demonstrate how each of these learning frameworks represents a specific instance of a broader, more generalized concept of learnability. Our hope is that this work will inspire a universally agreed-upon approach to quantifying different types of learning, fostering greater understanding and progress in the field.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Synergistic Graph Fusion via Encoder Embedding

In this paper, we introduce a method called graph fusion embedding, designed for multi-graph embedding with shared vertex sets. Under the framework of supervised learning, our method exhibits a remarkable and highly desirable synergistic effect: for sufficiently large vertex size, the accuracy of vertex classification consistently benefits from the incorporation of additional graphs. We establish the mathematical foundation for the method, including the asymptotic convergence of the embedding, a sufficient condition for asymptotic optimal classification, and the proof of the synergistic effect for vertex classification. Our comprehensive simulations and real data experiments provide compelling evidence supporting the effectiveness of our proposed method, showcasing the pronounced synergistic effect for multiple graphs from disparate sources.

cs.SI↗