arXiv subjects

Carlo R. Contaldi

Publications and source records attributed to Carlo R. Contaldi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Solving the Cosmic Coincidence Problem: The Locally Pumped Dark Energy Model

We propose the Locally Pumped Dark Energy (LPDE) mechanism in which cosmic acceleration is triggered by the emergence of non-linear dark matter structure. In an effective-field-theory description, coarse-graining over the density contrast profile, whose short-wavelength modes grow during halo formation, induces a shift in the local equilibrium point of a second, sufficiently heavy scalar field $\chi$. At early times, the pump mechanism is negligible and $\chi$ remains fixed at the origin, contributing no DE. As structures form, the equilibrium value of $\chi$ is locally displaced within halos, generating a vacuum energy whose global contribution, in a mean-field picture, is controlled by the halo volume filling factor. If the $\chi$ field is sufficiently heavy, with a Compton wavelength limited by halo scales, its response is localised, and spatial gradients are exponentially suppressed on large scales. After volume-averaging over the halo population, the resulting contribution on large scales behaves as a homogeneous DE component. Using the halo mass function of a fiducial $\Lambda$CDM cosmology, we show that vacuum-energy domination generically emerges at $z\sim\mathcal{O}(1)$, naturally correlating cosmic acceleration with structure formation. For reference, we present an explicit realisation of such a mechanism and show that, by naturally featuring a transient acceleration epoch, it can be in excellent agreement with the most recent cosmological data, including the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI).

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Strong scale-dependence does not enhance the kinematic boosting of gravitational wave backgrounds

Existing expressions in the literature appear to indicate that Doppler boosting, due to our proper motion with respect to the isotropic frame of the universe, can amplify stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds whose energy spectra exhibit strong scale dependence, for example, those generated by large scalar perturbations in models of primordial black holes or by astrophysical populations with broken power-law behaviour. It has been suggested that this enhancement could increase the signal-to-noise ratio of such backgrounds in pulsar timing measurements, as well as in ground- and space-based observatories. We show that the reported enhancement is an artefact of a Taylor expansion of the boosted signal, typically performed in the literature under the assumption of a small boosting parameter. This approximation fails to reproduce the correct result for signals with strong scale dependence. When Doppler boosting is treated exactly, the apparent amplification disappears. Using representative spectra, we demonstrate that Doppler motion induces only blue- and red-shifting by the expected amount; it does not lead to additional amplification or introduce new spectral features. The exact expression for the kinematic boost can and should be easily applied in analysing such backgrounds.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

A unified spin-harmonic framework for correlating pulsar timing, astrometric deflection, and shimmering gravitational wave observations

We present a unified spin-weighted harmonic framework that delivers analytic, diagonal expressions for the overlap (correlation) functions of three low frequency gravitational wave observables-pulsar timing redshifts, astrometric deflections, and time-dependent image distortions (``shimmering''). Writing each response in spin-$s$ spherical harmonics and rotating to a basis in which the wave tensor has definite helicity, we obtain compact closed-form series for every auto- and cross-correlation, recovering the Hellings-Downs curve as the $s=0$ limit and deriving its astrometric ($s=\pm 1$) and shimmering ($s=\pm 2$) analogues. The formalism naturally extends to non-standard scalar-breathing, longitudinal, and vector polarisation modes, clarifying when higher-spin observables are (and are not) sourced and providing a complete set of harmonic spectra $C_\ell$ ready for parameter estimation pipelines. These results supply the common theoretical language needed to combine upcoming pulsar timing, Gaia-class astrometric, and high resolution imaging data sets, enabling coherent, multi probe searches for stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds, tests of general relativity and its alternatives across the nano- to micro-hertz gravitational wave band.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Simulation-based inference with deep ensembles: Evaluating calibration uncertainty and detecting model misspecification

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) offers a principled and flexible framework for conducting Bayesian inference in any situation where forward simulations are feasible. However, validating the accuracy and reliability of the inferred posteriors remains a persistent challenge. In this work, we point out a simple diagnostic approach rooted in ensemble learning methods to assess the internal consistency of SBI outputs that does not require access to the true posterior. By training multiple neural estimators under identical conditions and evaluating their pairwise Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergences, we define a consistency criterion that quantifies agreement across the ensemble. We highlight two core use cases for this framework: a) for generating a robust estimate of the systematic uncertainty in parameter reconstruction associated with the training procedure, and b) for detecting possible model misspecification when using trained estimators on real data. We also demonstrate the relationship between significant KL divergences and issues such as insufficient convergence due to, e.g., too low a simulation budget, or intrinsic variance in the training process. Overall, this ensemble-based diagnostic framework provides a lightweight, scalable, and model-agnostic tool for enhancing the trustworthiness of SBI in scientific applications.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Prospects for detecting new dark physics with the next generation of atomic clocks

Wide classes of new fundamental physics theories cause apparent variations in particle mass ratios in space and time. In theories that violate the weak equivalence principle (EP), those variations are not uniform across all particles and may be detected with atomic and molecular clock frequency comparisons. In this work we explore the potential to detect those variations with near-future clock comparisons. We begin by searching published clock data for variations in the electron-proton mass ratio. We then undertake a statistical analysis to model the noise in a variety of clock pairs that can be built in the near future according to the current state of the art, determining their sensitivity to various fundamental physics signals. Those signals are then connected to constraints on fundamental physics theories that lead directly or indirectly to an effective EP-violating, including those motivated by dark matter, dark energy, the vacuum energy problem, unification or other open questions of fundamental physics. This work results in projections for tight new bounds on fundamental physics that could be achieved with atomic and molecular clocks within the next few years. Our code for this work is packaged into a forecast tool that translates clock characteristics into bounds on fundamental physics.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2024

Terrestrial Very-Long-Baseline Atom Interferometry: Summary of the Second Workshop

This summary of the second Terrestrial Very-Long-Baseline Atom Interferometry (TVLBAI) Workshop provides a comprehensive overview of our meeting held in London in April 2024, building on the initial discussions during the inaugural workshop held at CERN in March 2023. Like the summary of the first workshop, this document records a critical milestone for the international atom interferometry community. It documents our concerted efforts to evaluate progress, address emerging challenges, and refine strategic directions for future large-scale atom interferometry projects. Our commitment to collaboration is manifested by the integration of diverse expertise and the coordination of international resources, all aimed at advancing the frontiers of atom interferometry physics and technology, as set out in a Memorandum of Understanding signed by over 50 institutions.

hep-ex↗

arXiv2024

Cosmic Shimmering: the Gravitational Wave Signal of Time-Resolved Cosmic Shear Observations

We introduce a novel approach for detecting gravitational waves through their influence on the shape of resolved astronomical objects. This method, complementary to pulsar timing arrays and astrometric techniques, explores the time-dependent distortions caused by gravitational waves on the shapes of celestial bodies, such as galaxies or any resolved extended object. By developing a formalism based on that adopted in the analysis of weak lensing effects, we derive the response functions for gravitational wave-induced distortions and compute their angular correlation functions. Our results highlight the sensitivity of these distortions to the lowest frequencies of the gravitational wave spectrum and demonstrate how they produce distinct angular correlation signatures, including null and polarisation-sensitive correlations. These findings pave the way for future high-resolution surveys to exploit this novel observable, potentially offering new insights into the stochastic gravitational wave background and cosmological models.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Probing the galactic and extragalactic gravitational wave backgrounds with space-based interferometers

We employ the formalism developed in \cite{Mentasti:2023gmg} and \cite{Bartolo_2022} to study the prospect of detecting an anisotropic Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background (SGWB) with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) alone, and combined with the proposed space-based interferometer Taiji. Previous analyses have been performed in the frequency domain only. Here, we study the detectability of the individual coefficients of the expansion of the SGWB in spherical harmonics, by taking into account the specific motion of the satellites. This requires the use of time-dependent response functions, which we include in our analysis to obtain an optimal estimate of the anisotropic signal. We focus on two applications. Firstly, the reconstruction of the anisotropic galactic signal without assuming any prior knowledge of its spatial distribution. We find that both LISA and LISA with Taiji cannot put tight constraints on the harmonic coefficients for realistic models of the galactic SGWB. We then focus on the discrimination between a galactic signal of known morphology but unknown overall amplitude and an isotropic extragalactic SGWB component of astrophysical origin. In this case, we find that the two surveys can confirm, at a confidence level $\gtrsim 3σ$, the existence of both the galactic and extragalactic background if both have amplitudes as predicted in standard models. We also find that, in the LISA-only case, the analysis in the frequency domain (under the assumption of a time average of data taken homogeneously across the year) provides a nearly identical determination of the two amplitudes as compared to the optimal analysis.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

Observing gravitational waves with solar system astrometry

The subtle influence of gravitational waves on the apparent positioning of celestial bodies offers novel observational windows. We calculate the expected astrometric signal induced by an isotropic Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background (SGWB) in the short distance limit. Our focus is on the resultant proper motion of Solar System objects, a signal on the same time scales addressed by Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTA). We derive the corresponding astrometric deflection patterns, finding that they manifest as distinctive dipole and quadrupole correlations, or in some cases, may not be present. Our analysis encompasses both Einsteinian and non-Einsteinian polarisations. We estimate the upper limits for the amplitude of a scale-invariant SGWB that could be obtained by tracking the proper motions of large numbers of solar system objects such as asteroids. With the Gaia satellite and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory poised to track an extensive sample of asteroids-ranging from $O(10^5)$ to $O(10^6)$, we highlight the significant future potential for similar surveys to contribute to our understanding of the SGWB.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

Intrinsic limits on the detection of the anisotropies of the Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background

For any given network of detectors, and for any given integration time, even in the idealized limit of negligible instrumental noise, the intrinsic time variation of the isotropic component of the Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background (SGWB) induces a limit on how accurately the anisotropies in the SGWB can be measured. We show here how this sample limit can be calculated and apply this to three separate configurations of ground-based detectors placed at existing and planned sites. Our results show that in the idealized, best-case scenario individual multipoles of the anisotropies at $\ell \leq 8$ can only be measured to $\sim 10^{-5} - 10^{-4}$ level over 5 years of observation as a fraction of the isotropic component. As the sensitivity improves as the square root of the observation time, this poses a very serious challenge for the measurement of the anisotropies of SGWB of cosmological origin, even in the case of idealised detectors with arbitrarily low instrumental noise.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Probing Anisotropies of the Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background with LISA

We investigate the sensitivity of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) to the anisotropies of the Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background (SGWB). We first discuss the main astrophysical and cosmological sources of SGWB which are characterized by anisotropies in the GW energy density, and we build a Signal-to-Noise estimator to quantify the sensitivity of LISA to different multipoles. We then perform a Fisher matrix analysis of the prospects of detectability of anisotropic features with LISA for individual multipoles, focusing on a SGWB with a power-law frequency profile. We compute the noise angular spectrum taking into account the specific scan strategy of the LISA detector. We analyze the case of the kinematic dipole and quadrupole generated by Doppler boosting an isotropic SGWB. We find that $β\, Ω_{\rm GW}\sim 2\times 10^{-11}$ is required to observe a dipolar signal with LISA. The detector response to the quadrupole has a factor $\sim 10^3 \,β$ relative to that of the dipole. The characterization of the anisotropies, both from a theoretical perspective and from a map-making point of view, allows us to extract information that can be used to understand the origin of the SGWB, and to discriminate among distinct superimposed SGWB sources.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

Comparison of maximum likelihood mapping methods for gravitational-wave backgrounds

Detection of a stochastic background of gravitational waves is likely to occur in the next few years. Beyond searches for the isotropic component of SGWBs, there have been various mapping methods proposed to target anisotropic backgrounds. Some of these methods have been applied to data taken by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatories (LIGO) and Virgo. Specifically, these directional searches have focused on mapping the intensity of the signal on the sky via maximum likelihood solutions. We compare this intensity mapping approach to a previously proposed, but never employed, amplitude-phase mapping method to understand whether this latter approach may be employed in future searches. We build up our understanding of the differences between these two approaches by analysing simple toy models of time-stream data, and run mock-data mapping tests for the two methods. We find that the amplitude-phase method is only applicable to the case of a background which is phase-coherent on large scales or, at the very least, has an intrinsic coherence scale that is larger than that of the detector. Otherwise, the amplitude-phase mapping method leads to a loss of overall information, with respect to both phase and amplitude. Since we do not expect these phase-coherent properties to hold for any of the gravitational-wave background signals we hope to detect in the near future, we conclude that intensity mapping is the preferred method for such backgrounds.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

All-sky analysis of astrochronometric signals induced by gravitational waves

We introduce a unified formalism to describe both timing and astrometric perturbations induced on astrophysical point sources by gravitational waves using a complex spin field on the sphere. This allows the use of spin-weighted spherical harmonics to analyse "astrochronometric" observables. This approach simplifies the interpretation and simulation of anisotropies induced in the observables by gravitational waves. It also allows a simplified derivation of angular cross-spectra of the observables and their relationship with generalised Hellings-Downs correlation functions. The spin-weighted formalism also allows an explicit connection between correlation components and the spin of gravitational wave polarisations and any presence of chirality. We also calculate expected signal-to-noise ratios for observables to compare the utility of timing and deflection observables.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2021

Geodesic Noise and Gravitational Wave Observations by Pulsar Timing Arrays

Signals from millisecond pulsars travel to us on geodesics along the line-of-sight that are affected by the space--time metric. The exact path-geometry and redshifting along the geodesics determine the observed Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the pulses. The metric is determined by the distribution of dark matter, gas, and stars in the galaxy and, in the final stages of travel, by the distribution of solar system bodies. The inhomogeneous distribution of stellar masses can have a small but significant statistical effect on the ToAs through the perturbation of geodesics. This will result in additional noise in ToA observations that may affect Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) constraints on gravitational waves at very low frequencies. We employ a simple model for the stellar distribution in our galaxy to estimate the scale of both static and dynamic sources of what we term generically "geodesic noise". We find that geodesic noise has a standard deviation of ${\cal O}(10)$ ns for typical lines-of-sight. This suggests geodesic noise is relevant for estimates of PTA sensitivity and may limit future efforts for detection of gravitational waves by PTAs.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Phase decoherence of gravitational wave backgrounds

Metric perturbations affect the phase of gravitational waves as they propagate through the inhomogeneous universe. This effect causes Stochastic Gravitational Wave Backgrounds (SGWBs) to lose any phase coherence that may have been present at emission or horizon entry. We show that, for a standard cosmological model, this implies complete loss of coherence above frequencies $f \sim 10^{-12}$ Hz. The result is that any attempts to map SGWBs using phase-coherent methods have no foreseeable applications. Incoherent methods that solve directly for the intensity of the SGWBs are the only methods that can reconstruct the angular dependence of any SGWB.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Maximum likelihood map-making with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna

Given the recent advances in gravitational-wave detection technologies, the detection and characterisation of gravitational-wave backgrounds (GWBs) with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is a real possibility. To assess the abilities of the LISA satellite network to reconstruct anisotropies of different angular scales and in different directions on the sky, we develop a map-maker based on an optimal quadratic estimator. The resulting maps are maximum likelihood representations of the GWB intensity on the sky integrated over a broad range of frequencies. We test the algorithm by reconstructing known input maps with different input distributions and over different frequency ranges. We find that, in an optimal scenario of well understood noise and high frequency, high SNR signals, the maximum scales LISA may probe are $\ell_{\rm max} \lesssim 15$. The map-maker also allows to test the directional dependence of LISA noise, providing insight on the directional sky sensitivity we may expect.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

COVID-19: Nowcasting Reproduction Factors Using Biased Case Testing Data

Timely estimation of the current value for COVID-19 reproduction factor $R$ has become a key aim of efforts to inform management strategies. $R$ is an important metric used by policy-makers in setting mitigation levels and is also important for accurate modelling of epidemic progression. This brief paper introduces a method for estimating $R$ from biased case testing data. Using testing data, rather than hospitalisation or death data, provides a much earlier metric along the symptomatic progression scale. This can be hugely important when fighting the exponential nature of an epidemic. We develop a practical estimator and apply it to Scottish case testing data to infer a current (20 May 2020) $R$ value of $0.74$ with $95\%$ confidence interval $[0.48 - 0.86]$.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

The $N_\ell$ of gravitational wave background experiments

We construct a model for the angular power spectrum of the instrumental noise in interferometer networks mapping gravitational wave backgrounds (GWBs) as a function of detector noise properties, network configuration and scan strategy. We use the model to calculate the noise power spectrum for current and future ground-based experiments, as well as for planned space missions. We present our results in a language similar to that used in cosmic microwave background and intensity mapping experiments, and connect the formalism with the sensitivity curves that are common lore in GWB analyses. Our formalism is implemented in a lightweight python module that we make publicly available at https://github.com/damonge/schNell.

astro-ph.CO↗