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Carlos Baquero

Publications and source records attributed to Carlos Baquero.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

MaSRead: Content-Addressed Reading of Replicated Latent Stores

Independent agents that reason in latent space can share computed state as key-value cache fragments rather than text. Merged by a conflict-free replicated data type, these fragments form a store that converges under any delivery order or duplication. Yet a later query, unknown at encode time, cannot reliably read the merged cache: colocated fragments interfere, so colocation is not addressability. MaSRead addresses the read to content. It routes through opaque keyed tag sets derived from fragment words and decodes each selected fragment under a hard attention mask that hides the rest. Under lexical connectivity, a graph walk reaches the fragments required by a multi-hop query. Across chain, pipeline, symmetric, hub, and natural-language stores, MaSRead recovers visited fragments in isolation, remains effective as unrelated fragments accumulate, and transfers to another model family. After routing, materialized decoding depends on fragment length rather than total store size; end-to-end work still includes store-dependent routing and one read per visited fragment. The limits are explicit: lexical routing can miss disconnected evidence, and answer composition remains bounded by the frozen reader. Thus a replicated latent store becomes selectively readable for later queries when the needed fragments connect to the query through content.

cs.AI

Cache Merging as a Convergent Replicated State for Multi-Agent Latent Reasoning

Multi-agent latent reasoning composes agents' KV-caches into one context for a final agent. Prior work (Agent Primitives) does this by concatenating caches along the sequence axis with RoPE re-encoding, which we call BagMerge. BagMerge is non-commutative, and the best input ordering is unpredictable, shifting with the regime, the latent-step budget, and the model scale. We make this exchange a convergent replicated state. First, CanonicalMerge fixes the layout by content: ordering caches by mean K-norm at a middle layer renders the merged cache byte-identical under any input permutation, verified algorithmically (arity N<=5) and bit-for-bit on real Qwen3-1.7B and 4B state. Second, we separate the replicated state from decode-time layout: the state is a set of content-addressed latent fragments whose merge is set union, a state-based CvRDT (commutative, associative, idempotent, absorbing), and CanonicalMerge is its deterministic render. Because the render is byte-equivalent, every N=2 accuracy number carries over unchanged and re-delivered duplicates are absorbed rather than re-concatenated. On a partitioned-reasoning benchmark, CanonicalMerge matches the best BagMerge ordering in every regime-by-budget-by-ordering cell without knowing which order is best, trading a small, statistically insignificant accuracy margin for an unconditional structural guarantee. The behaviour transfers to real multi-document QA (HotpotQA), while the closest training-free output-fusion baseline (PackLLM) loses by 45 points at matched budget, placing cache-level merging in a regime distinct from output-level fusion. Finally, at k>2 the approach transports and colocates latent traces but does not by itself compose them, which we characterize to motivate future work.

cs.MA

When Latent Agents Lie: KV-Cache Integrity in Multi-Agent LLM Collaboration

LLM agents can share more than text. In some systems, an agent can send a short visible message while also passing its full KV-cache state to another model. This hidden state can help the final model combine evidence from several agents, but it is also hard to inspect. A visible message may look harmless even if the hidden state has been changed. We study this problem in a multi-agent question-answering setup. Specialists each see part of the evidence, send a short commitment, and pass full KV-cache state to a coordinator. In clean runs, this latent collaboration improves over a matched text-only version. On transformed HiddenBench with Qwen3-4B, it reaches EM/F1 of 0.338/0.486, compared with 0.231/0.369 for text collaboration. Qwen3-8B and HotPotQA runs show the same direction of improvement. The problem appears when one specialist is malicious. Some false visible commitments can steer answers. More seriously, changing the hidden KV state can collapse performance even when the visible commitment still looks plausible. A verifier that checks only text misses this failure mode. Simple magnitude checks catch some obvious corruptions, but adaptive attacks can evade them while still damaging the final answer. The most reliable fix we find is not to guess whether hidden state looks normal, but to protect it in transport. We implement an HMAC-SHA256 manifest that binds the specialist, session, model, visible commitment, tensor metadata, and payload digest. It accepts all 774 honest replayed payloads and rejects all 295 recorded tampered payloads. The main lesson is that full-KV latent memory can be useful, but it should be treated as a security-sensitive object, not as ordinary internal model state.

cs.MA

Visual Spatial Learning: Single-Field Spatial Interpolation Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Predicting a complete spatially correlated field from sparse observations is a fundamental challenge in spatial statistics and environmental modelling. Classical interpolation methods such as Kriging rely on Gaussian process assumptions and variography, which can limit their effectiveness in non-stationary settings and require substantial domain expertise. In this work, we leverage an architecture based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for spatial interpolation that is trained and applied on a single partially observed field, without access to external data or prior fields. The model is supervised directly on the observed locations and learns to predict values at unobserved points on the user defined grid. Unlike Kriging, our method does not require explicit covariance modelling or variogram estimation, and it can flexibly capture local spatial patterns in a data-driven manner. This work demonstrates the potential of CNNs for single-instance spatial interpolation under sparse supervision, offering a practical alternative to classical geostatistical methods, and extending the use of CNNs to a new problem domain.

stat.ML

Bitcoin's Power Law: Weak Structure, Strong Forecasts

Bitcoin's price has been described as following a power law (PL) in time, $P \sim t^β$ with $\hatβ\approx 5.7$ over 2010-2026. We test this claim using the Clauset-Shalizi-Newman protocol applied to Bitcoin's tail-relevant distributional series, and develop three principled time-domain adaptations of the protocol. We find that (i) the distributional power law is rejected on UTXO balances and daily |returns|, with lognormal preferred decisively; (ii) the fitted time-domain exponent varies by nearly a factor of three across reasonable shifts of the time origin -- it is not specification-robust in the sense required for a shift-invariant structural reading; (iii) standard residual diagnostics and scale-invariance tests proposed in earlier work cannot distinguish a power law from a multi-component sigmoid stack fit to the same data; (iv) Bitcoin price stands apart in a cross-asset comparison spanning Bitcoin on-chain metrics and traditional asset classes: it is the only series in the nine-series in-sample test where no single-component growth curve improves on the power law, and the quarterly $K=3$ wave-stability bootstrap rejects the PL+AR(1) null on Bitcoin at $p = 0.015$ (strict 15% CV threshold) -- a clear cross-asset separation, although not a Bonferroni-robust rejection; and (v) walk-forward Diebold-Mariano evaluation against ten candidates -- including standard time-series baselines (RW with drift, auto-ARIMA, ETS, local-linear-trend) -- shows the in-sample winner (multi-sigmoid) is among the worst long-horizon forecasters, while the simple power law dominates 12-24 month horizons against every standard baseline at $p < 0.05$, precisely because it does not commit to specific wave shapes. The fit-prediction tradeoff is the practical counterpart of the descriptive findings.

stat.AP

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Peer-Reviewed Evidence and Social Media Discourse

Bitcoin price prediction has attracted hundreds of academic papers and continuous social media debate, yet the field lacks consensus on even basic questions: can any model beat a naive "today's price" baseline at horizons of one to six months? We survey the peer-reviewed landscape, categorize papers by evaluation methodology, and contrast academic findings with informal but substantive discourse on X/Twitter. The picture that emerges is sobering. At short-to-medium horizons, no peer-reviewed study has shown robust superiority over the naive baseline across multiple market regimes. Daily predictability is real but does not extend to hourly or monthly horizons, and may not survive transaction costs. The stock-to-flow model has failed formal out-of-sample testing, and Metcalfe's Law valuations have been challenged as spurious. The Bitcoin price power law, while empirically compelling, has not been subjected to formal distributional tests. Meanwhile, social media practitioners raise valid statistical critiques -- ordinary least squares (OLS) violations, backtest overfitting, spurious regressions -- that the academic literature has not formalized. We identify open research directions and propose concrete methodological standards for future work -- walk-forward evaluation, multi-regime holdout windows, naive baseline comparison, inclusion of zero in hyperparameter grids, and Diebold-Mariano significance testing -- arguing that the field's primary need is not more models but better evaluation.

q-fin.GN

Rateless Bloom Filters: Set Reconciliation for Divergent Replicas with Variable-Sized Elements

Set reconciliation protocols typically make two critical assumptions: they are designed for fixed-sized elements and they are optimized for when the difference cardinality, d, is very small. When adapting to variable-sized elements, the current practice is to synchronize fixed-size element digests. However, when the number of differences is considerable, such as after a network partition, this approach can be inefficient. Our solution is a two-stage hybrid protocol that introduces a preliminary Bloom filter step, specifically designed for this regime. The novelty of this approach, however, is in solving a core technical challenge: determining the optimal Bloom filter size without knowing d. Our solution is the Rateless Bloom Filter (RBF), a dynamic filter that naturally adapts to arbitrary symmetric differences, closely matching the communication complexity of an optimally configured static filter without requiring any prior parametrization. Our evaluation in sets of variable-sized elements shows that for Jaccard indices below 85%, our RBF-IBLT hybrid protocol reduces the total communication cost by up to over 20% compared to the state-of-the-art.

cs.DS

ConflictSync: Bandwidth Efficient Synchronization of Divergent State

State-based Conflict-free Replicated Data Types (CRDTs) are widely used in distributed systems to ensure high availability without coordination. However, their naive synchronization strategy - transmitting the full state - incurs high communication costs. Existing optimizations like delta-CRDTs reduce this overhead but rely on external metadata that must be garbage collected to prevent unbounded growth, at the cost of full state transmissions after network partitions. This paper presents ConflictSync, the first digest-driven synchronization algorithm for state-based CRDTs. We reduce synchronization to the set reconciliation of irredundant join decompositions and build on existing work in rateless set reconciliation. To support CRDTs, we generalize set reconciliation to variable-sized elements, and further introduce a novel combination of Bloom filters with Rateless Invertible Bloom Lookup Tables to address inefficiencies at low similarity levels. Our evaluation shows that ConflictSync reduces total data transfer by up to 18 times compared to traditional state-based synchronization. Bloom filter prefiltering reduces overhead by up to 50% compared to pure rateless reconciliation at 0% similarity, while pure rateless reconciliation performs better above 93% similarity. We characterize the trade-off between similarity level and Bloom filter size, identifying optimal configurations for different synchronization scenarios. Although developed for CRDTs, ConflictSync applies to any synchronization problem where states can be decomposed into sets of constituent components, analogous to join decompositions, making it suitable for a wide range of distributed data models.

cs.DC

CRDT-Based Game State Synchronization in Peer-to-Peer VR

Virtual presence demands ultra-low latency, a factor that centralized architectures, by their nature, cannot minimize. Local peer-to-peer architectures offer a compelling alternative, but also pose unique challenges in terms of network infrastructure. This paper introduces a prototype leveraging Conflict-Free Replicated Data Types (CRDTs) to enable real-time collaboration in a shared virtual environment. Using this prototype, we investigate latency, synchronization, and the challenges of decentralized coordination in dynamic non-Byzantine contexts. We aim to question prevailing assumptions about decentralized architectures and explore the practical potential of P2P in advancing virtual presence. This work challenges the constraints of mediated networks and highlights the potential of decentralized architectures to redefine collaboration and interaction in digital spaces.

cs.DC

Distributed Generalized Linear Models: A Privacy-Preserving Approach

This paper presents a novel approach to classical linear regression, enabling model computation from data streams or in a distributed setting while preserving data privacy in federated environments. We extend this framework to generalized linear models (GLMs), ensuring scalability and adaptability to diverse data distributions while maintaining privacy-preserving properties. To assess the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct numerical studies on both simulated and real datasets, comparing our method with conventional maximum likelihood estimation for GLMs using iteratively reweighted least squares. Our results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method in distributed and federated settings.

stat.CO

Time-limited Bloom Filter

A Bloom Filter is a probabilistic data structure designed to check, rapidly and memory-efficiently, whether an element is present in a set. It has been vastly used in various computing areas and several variants, allowing deletions, dynamic sets and working with sliding windows, have surfaced over the years. When summarizing data streams, it becomes relevant to identify the more recent elements in the stream. However, most of the sliding window schemes consider the most recent items of a data stream without considering time as a factor. While this allows, e.g., storing the most recent 10000 elements, it does not easily translate into storing elements received in the last 60 seconds, unless the insertion rate is stable and known in advance. In this paper, we present the Time-limited Bloom Filter, a new BF-based approach that can save information of a given time period and correctly identify it as present when queried, while also being able to retire data when it becomes stale. The approach supports variable insertion rates while striving to keep a target false positive rate. We also make available a reference implementation of the data structure as a Redis module.

cs.DS

Estimating Active Cases of COVID-19

Having accurate and timely data on confirmed active COVID-19 cases is challenging, since it depends on testing capacity and the availability of an appropriate infrastructure to perform tests and aggregate their results. In this paper, we propose methods to estimate the number of active cases of COVID-19 from the official data (of confirmed cases and fatalities) and from survey data. We show that the latter is a viable option in countries with reduced testing capacity or suboptimal infrastructures.

physics.soc-ph

Efficient Replication via Timestamp Stability (Extended Version)

Modern web applications replicate their data across the globe and require strong consistency guarantees for their most critical data. These guarantees are usually provided via state-machine replication (SMR). Recent advances in SMR have focused on leaderless protocols, which improve the availability and performance of traditional Paxos-based solutions. We propose Tempo - a leaderless SMR protocol that, in comparison to prior solutions, achieves superior throughput and offers predictable performance even in contended workloads. To achieve these benefits, Tempo timestamps each application command and executes it only after the timestamp becomes stable, i.e., all commands with a lower timestamp are known. Both the timestamping and stability detection mechanisms are fully decentralized, thus obviating the need for a leader replica. Our protocol furthermore generalizes to partial replication settings, enabling scalability in highly parallel workloads. We evaluate the protocol in both real and simulated geo-distributed environments and demonstrate that it outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives.

cs.DC

Causality is Graphically Simple

Events in distributed systems include sending or receiving messages, or changing some state in a node. Not all events are related, but some events can cause and influence how other, later events, occur. For instance, a reply to a received mail message is influenced by that message, and maybe by other prior messages also received. This article brings an introduction to classic causality tracking mechanisms and covers some more recent developments. The presentation is supported by a new graphical notation that allows an intuitive interpretation of the causality relations described.

cs.DC

CoronaSurveys: Using Surveys with Indirect Reporting to Estimate the Incidence and Evolution of Epidemics

The world is suffering from a pandemic called COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. National governments have problems evaluating the reach of the epidemic, due to having limited resources and tests at their disposal. This problem is especially acute in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Hence, any simple, cheap and flexible means of evaluating the incidence and evolution of the epidemic in a given country with a reasonable level of accuracy is useful. In this paper, we propose a technique based on (anonymous) surveys in which participants report on the health status of their contacts. This indirect reporting technique, known in the literature as network scale-up method, preserves the privacy of the participants and their contacts, and collects information from a larger fraction of the population (as compared to individual surveys). This technique has been deployed in the CoronaSurveys project, which has been collecting reports for the COVID-19 pandemic for more than two months. Results obtained by CoronaSurveys show the power and flexibility of the approach, suggesting that it could be an inexpensive and powerful tool for LMICs.

cs.DC

State-Machine Replication for Planet-Scale Systems (Extended Version)

Online applications now routinely replicate their data at multiple sites around the world. In this paper we present Atlas, the first state-machine replication protocol tailored for such planet-scale systems. Atlas does not rely on a distinguished leader, so clients enjoy the same quality of service independently of their geographical locations. Furthermore, client-perceived latency improves as we add sites closer to clients. To achieve this, Atlas minimizes the size of its quorums using an observation that concurrent data center failures are rare. It also processes a high percentage of accesses in a single round trip, even when these conflict. We experimentally demonstrate that Atlas consistently outperforms state-of-the-art protocols in planet-scale scenarios. In particular, Atlas is up to two times faster than Flexible Paxos with identical failure assumptions, and more than doubles the performance of Egalitarian Paxos in the YCSB benchmark.

cs.DC

Age-Partitioned Bloom Filters

Bloom filters (BF) are widely used for approximate membership queries over a set of elements. BF variants allow removals, sets of unbounded size or querying a sliding window over an unbounded stream. However, for this last case the best current approaches are dictionary based (e.g., based on Cuckoo Filters or TinyTable), and it may seem that BF-based approaches will never be competitive to dictionary-based ones. In this paper we present Age-Partitioned Bloom Filters, a BF-based approach for duplicate detection in sliding windows that not only is competitive in time-complexity, but has better space usage than current dictionary-based approaches (e.g., SWAMP), at the cost of some moderate slack. APBFs retain the BF simplicity, unlike dictionary-based approaches, important for hardware-based implementations, and can integrate known improvements such as double hashing or blocking. We present an Age-Partitioned Blocked Bloom Filter variant which can operate with 2-3 cache-line accesses per insertion and around 2-4 per query, even for high accuracy filters.

cs.DS

Efficient Synchronization of State-based CRDTs

To ensure high availability in large scale distributed systems, Conflict-free Replicated Data Types (CRDTs) relax consistency by allowing immediate query and update operations at the local replica, with no need for remote synchronization. State-based CRDTs synchronize replicas by periodically sending their full state to other replicas, which can become extremely costly as the CRDT state grows. Delta-based CRDTs address this problem by producing small incremental states (deltas) to be used in synchronization instead of the full state. However, current synchronisation algorithms for Delta-based CRDTs induce redundant wasteful delta propagation, performing worse than expected, and surprisingly, no better than State-based. In this paper we: 1) identify two sources of inefficiency in current synchronization algorithms for delta-based CRDTs; 2) bring the concept of join decomposition to state-based CRDTs; 3) exploit join decompositions to obtain optimal deltas and 4) improve the efficiency of synchronization algorithms; and finally, 5) evaluate the improved algorithms.

cs.DC